M Projected 4th in B1G East by Writers
I would be surprised if this were the outcome, but M, MSU & PSU are in a virtual dead heat at 2-4. Predictably, OSU / Wisconsin are substantial favorites to win their divisions.
The only non-OSU or Wisconsin title winner vote went to MSU which suggests to me that there is someone who needs to be removed from the poll. That voter probably makes the difference between the 2-4 B1G East rankings as well.
Interested to hear folks' point of view on this...
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/big-ten/2018/07/20/ohio-state-favored-online-big-ten-preseason-poll/807484002/
Completely disagree that Dantonio is elite. I was thinking that Dantonio was near elite but now I may even backtrack on that call him solidly above average.
Cuz, I did the unspeakable, nay, the unthinkable ... I looked at his record.
Since the program "got rolling" (2010 - 2017) Dantonio has won 78 games. 9 teams have won more and 2 other teams have also won 78 games. MSU is actually 12th in win % (73.6%):
http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/calc-wp.pl?start=2010&end=2017&rpct=30&min=5&se=on&by=Win+Pct
Many people on this board (when they want to trash UM) say you are what your record says you are.
Well that makes Dantonio the 12th best coach in college football.
Now UM has SUCKED during that time at 64.1% (29th best), but THAT doesn't make Dantonio elite.
I think we are all subject to a kind of "halo effect" of Dantonio's record against UM. During that period he is 6-2. The problem is (as I have stated) UM SUCKED during that period.
Now, instead of using simple win % you CAN use a different criteria (postseason appearances, college football playoff appearances, or (the favorite) B1G division placement or titles). But those are narrower criteria (less data) and so I think while they aren't bad, they aren't as good as win %.
But whatever you do, don't use overall record to justify Dantonio is elite. Cause that just don't work.
I think overall record and multiple BCS bowl wins at a historically crappy program where it is difficult to recruit makes him elite. He's not winning those games at OSU, Alabama, Georgia, USC, or LSU. He's doing it at what is typically a second tier program in a state with mediocre talent. I suppose we have differing definitions of elite.
Everything will be solved on the field of play. I would put a huge poster of this prediction in the weight room.
We all are outraged before every season when these predictions come out but have they been wrong about us the last few years? No, they have not
Yeah, with that defense, sure.
We could start WD at QB and finish 4th in the east
Such predictions are often bases on last year’s facts.
Harbaugh continues to build depth and talent on his team. My guess about this season for total wins, will be anywhere from 8 to 12 wins. I think if Shea is the real deal, we will win 10 to 12 games. Our defense will be good and is the reason our floor is 8 wins, even if the offense is not much better this season but dang it should be.
Don’t see it but we deserve ultimately . I know this gets oversaid a lot but it’s put-up or shut-up time . Let’s get it done .
IF the offense is a top 40 type then we SHOULD get to Indy. Because I don't see the D giving up more than 11 or 12 PPG on average. This year's D will be fast, athletic, smart and as always, well coached. Should be a fun season.
I've got a feeling that this is going to be a special season that will turn a lot of heads.
UM is just a few bad bounces (literally) away from having had some truly special seasons already under JH. With the talent and coaching pedigree that this team has I think this is the year that the rivals are served notice that things are going to be very different going forward.
JH seems very focused..even moreso than before and before includes two 10 win seasons. The talent is there, UM has a QB, the Oline has a coach, the WRs have a coach..the D is stacked and has one of the very BEST coordinators.
Its Time to get that rival road win monkey off their backs in a big way...
I was not expecting LC to go undefeated in '97. I knew we had a great defense but I think there were questions on offense going into that season. I'm sure if this blog was up before the '97 season, most people would be saying the '97 team would end up with 2 to 4 losses. Though you would have had those outliers who would say undefeated and they would have been right! Whenever you have a great defense, all the offense has to do is put up some average stats and most or all of our games will be Ws.
Just win baby.
4th is a rational place to start. Preseason predictions start with the results of the previous season and then adjust for who left the program. What comes next is highly speculative and frequently incorrect. We have reasons (plural) to be optimistic. I think the o-line was closer to very good than some realize and from there I will speculate that we will be satisfied with o-line performance (knock on wood precluding any more inuries.) It would be nice to see an end to the questionable calls and inexplicable bounces.
I'm not going to get angry about the prediction, but I'll be extremely p*ssed off if that ends up happening. We haven't had the results that we SHOULD be having. And if this motivates our guys more, that's great.
14 years without a conference title is not only unacceptable but absolutely disgusting. And the longest drought we've had since the 1950's.
I remember in the 90's when we went four straight years without a title and THAT felt like forever. The fan base was freaking the hell out, too.
I was freaking out most about finishing 3 times below .500. Before 2008, I never thought a Michigan team would ever finish below .500.
Wait, did anyone else see those point totals for voting? There was only 1.5 difference between 2nd and 4th.
1. Ohio State, 191.5 points (23.5 first-place votes)
2. Michigan State, 142 points (2)
3. Penn State, 141.5 points (1)
4. Michigan, 140.5 points (1.5)
Writers! We're talkin' about WRITERS!!!
We will be 13-0 and lose the first game of the playoff. This means that we will finish 1st in the B1g14 East.
I would agree that OSU and Wisconsin should be substantial favorites to win the East/West, but have y'all noticed...
...these writers are just picking the same standings as last year? And have you noticed how many predictions are premised, consciously or not, on things being exactly the same as last year?
The fact is, that rarely happens. There is always one team is significantly better that it was the year prior and another fails to match its performance. I'd guess Michigan is the former and PSU the latter. In fact, I'd say that PSU is being overrated the same way we were in last year's preseason polls/predictions, though perhaps not to the same degree. They'll be good but not great. So my guess:
1. OSU
2. Michigan
3. MSU
4. PSU