Those who wanted an inside hire and a return to "Michigan Football" have no right to expect better than the 3 losses a year that Lloyd Carr got.  Anything else would be a bonus.

That being said, a conservative system works great if you have #1 recruiting classes.  Nick Saban averaged 4.8 losses per year at MSU, but now he is averaging 1.86 losses per year at Bama.  If Hoke has Saban-like personnel, he will get Saban-like results, but without the risk of NCAA probation that is omnipresent at Bama.

I am not judging the staff's "ceiling" until they have their own fifth-year seniors and until we see what the team looks like with some of these great recruiting classes.

is there any other 69 then naked?

Always better if the balls are downed then thrown.

This play is hard to swallow if not executed correctly.

" a decimated senior/redshirt junior class that provided his team Gardner, Ryan, Black, and zero other starters."

"Michigan loses Quinton Washington, Courtney Avery, and Thomas Gordon after the year, and no one else from their two deep"

Those two things don't seem to go together well.  And completely ignores Touissant, Lewan, Schofield, and maybe someone else.  Just off the top of my head.

Not trying to bust your balls Brian, but those three guys are pretty integral pieces of the team.  While they might not be seniors and RS juniors, they are most definitely upperclassmen.

You will not be able to determine this until lets say 2016! I could see the program getting back to the 90's as far as success. Years where we have to start younger skill players, we may lose 3 or 4 games. But over all I see 9 to 11 wins per year beginning in 2015 and beyond. If everything works out well in one particular season we could win a national championship sometime between 2015 and 2025. How we play against OSU is difficult to determine. Lets say if Hoke wins in Columbus and at home in two consecutive years, Urban will get so much pressure put on him, his health problems may flare up again and he could quit. But overall in a 10 year period I could see us winning 4 or 5 games against OSU. I could see Mattison retiring in the next 5 years.

but in large part that depends on Borges and Fitz; one whose willingness to tweak his game plan a bit -don't have to hit for massive yards each time, but use a lot of 6-7 yard patterns, max protect, etc., and Fitz's ability to pick up blitzing backers when, because we know they will send backers, we try to hit longer patterns.  We simply cannot expect to run between the tackles on them, but we do have some players capable of sealing their DEs for some toss sweeps and runs of that nature.  There dbs, other than their highlight reel, are susceptible and we can work on them, but it must be done quickly as stated above.                    ^ As to Brady's long term status we simply will not know until he gets us to the top.  At every other place he's been, he's been almost immediately hired away once he's accomplished this. He has taken a step up, but of all the major conferences, this is the smallest step so my guess is once he gets his first BIG championship others will follow.  I see the reason many fans question his game time coaching skills, but this too might be in part to not having all the pieces in place just yet. He might be totally capable of appearing superior to what we've seen on the sidelines to date once that is accomplished. I am aware as the next fan it hasn't looked pretty in numerous situations, but I think he will mature as he closes the talent gap with OSU.  Better talent seems to bring this out in HCs as they go into each contest with a hell of a lot more confidence, normally resulting in a calm manner that makes for a clearer head in times of high anxiety that should also become less and less as talent and maturity level grows on the field. We're only a year or two away from having experienced depth and high level talent at all positions. Inasmuch as he's been able to maintain our historical winning percentage under the transitional period, logic and his historical measure would indicate he'll do a fine, long-term job.  

So much idle speculation and opinion offered as fact. 

I don't know the actual numbers so I'm putting a stake in the ground. Please feel free to correct me.

Michigan's football program has what 115 players 85 of whom are on scholarship? The program has 10-12 coaches? Plus trainers, grad assistants and what ever positions the athletic department loans them? That is a lot of bodies. 
 

I've managed and lead orgainizations of 35-50 people, all of who pulled a salary. I've had to deal with the interpersonal fallout and all the other crap that people dump into an organization. Other than summer interns, not one of them was under the age of 22. 

I've had successes and failures and gray results. I've been lauded and fired. I've been solicited by executive vice presidents of multi-billion dollar technology companies to come and right failing projects or programs.  Nothing I have ever done in my life, including rescuing a 300 million dollar organization, comes close to the job required of a head coach at a football program like Michigan. Period. 

Rebuilding a program takes time. When a program is almost soley about people, especially a when a very large percentage are under the age of 25, it is very very difficult to project how long the rebuilding will require. 

Noone here, including me, has any idea how long it will take to rebuild this program so that it regularly competes for a national championship. I don't know if Hoke has what it takes, but so far he has given me no reason to doubt that he can get there. Other than a tiny select group of coaches and ADs, there is no one here, nor anywhere that is able to credibly offer a judgement on Hoke's ceiling. Certainly not among a group that has never coached a day in D-1, and for the most part never played a single down of D-1 football.

I would like all of you to consider that a turn over rate of 20%-25% considered extremely damaging to most organizations. That is the normal rate of turn over among the players in every college football program.

Greatness is a hard thing to achieve and maintain. It is even harder when your program is held to higher standards of academic achievement, integrity, and behavior. 

For crap's sake, we are Michigan fans. Many of us are alums. All of us follow a football program that spans more than a century of play. Perhaps we should take a longer view. 

If they are on, this team can beat any other team in college ball. Yes. Any other team. If they are off they can lose to any other team. So we are on a rollar coaster, probably not what we expected, but fact none the less.

Barring critial injuries, this won't be the case next year.  We all may as well enjoy the  ride.

The key will be can our revamped offense score points on MSU. If MSU goes with 8 or more in the box it will be all up to Devin and our OL giving him at least some time to throw and if his accuracy is there, this will open up the running game. I think the defense will hold their own. But the key to the remainder of the season will be offensive production. Hopefully, Al won't man ball it!