Way Too Specific Predictions: Football 2013
Last year I created a topic that asked for your way too specific predictions for 2012. You can see the link to it below, as well as other prediction threads for 2012. It's kind of fun to read everything in hindsight. (Hint: Nobody predicted ND to the title game) My thoughts on the 2012 team was that we would be a better team, but due to our schedule we would have some regression on our W/L. I was bullish on our team's talents, but bearish on the record. I'm much more optimistic about this year.
That said, what are your predictions for 2013? I want W/L, who we lose to (if we lose), and maybe where our rivals will end up, as well. If you want to get crazy and predict a prop bet type situation, then by all means.
Also, Hoke is unbeaten at home. This year, we see Nebraska, ND, and OSU. Next year, we don't really have any competition at home all year. What are the chances that Hoke is still unbeaten at home going into year 5 at Michigan. Has that been done?
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So here's my call for 2013 -
- Gardner is very good, but throws some untimely interceptions that we don't want to see. He may even lose a game in this fashion. However, he doesn't approach the average INT numbers of Denard, and has an amazing game against OSU.
- MSU and ND are much easier wins than most anticipate. One will be a double digit win. The other will be a touchdown or less, but with us feeling like we were in control all game.
- We lose to NW. In the third quarter, a bad play in our defensive secondary will make us loathe our youth and shed a tear that we have no walk-on players in our defensive backfield anymore.
- The OSU game will be decided in the last 5 minutes.
- Even if we lose 2 conference games, we will be in the title game at 10-2. The team that won between OSU and Michigan will lose the title game. We will end at 11-2, as will OSU.
- We will not see as much Derrick Green as we expect to.
- UTL II will be the deciding factor that lands us 3 more 5* recruits. Hand, McDowell, and Adoree. I'm not even sure that all of them will be there for that game, but if so... it's gon be electric.
- ND has 5 losses. MSU has 6 losses.
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EDIT: As far as 2012 predictions go, Logan88 was dead on, sans BTCG:
UM 8-4 (losses: Bama, @ND, @Nebraska and @OSU) --- still make the B1G championship game
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http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/2012-season-record-prediction-thread
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/way-too-specific-predictions-2012
Your numbers are a little off. You have us going to the Big Ten Championship game five years in a row, which seems unlikely since we will share a division with Ohio State. Moreover, if we were to win the National Championship in 2017, we would need to go 15-0 (or possibly 14-1).
CMU- 48-13 W
ND- 23-17 W
Akron- 59-6 W
@ UCONN- 27-16 W
Minnesota- 38-17 W
@ PSU- 25-17 W
Indiana- 41-27 W
@ MSU- 28-12 W (they don't score a touchdown in Jake Ryan's first game back)
Nebraska- 30-24 L (commence panic, Nebraska still will not reach BTCG)
@ NW- 42-31 W (more panic- mobile QBs argh!)
@ Iowa- 31-10 W
Ohio- 37-31 W
Ohio pt. 2- 23-20 L
Florida State (Orange Bowl) 36-30 W
Final record: 12-2 (7-2) Final ranking: #7
We beat Central, Akron, Connecticut, Minnesota, Indiana, and Iowa fairly easily (Indiana gives us a scare through three quarters, but we pull away in the fourth). This leaves the good games: Notre Dame, @Penn State, @Michigan State, Nebraska, @Northwestern, and Ohio State. I am not too scared of Penn State or Nebraska, so let's call those wins. We lost some close games last year, so the following might be slightly optimistic in the hope that we regress and things fall our way this year.
Notre Dame: I think our veteran tackles should hold off ND's great line which will allow for Gardner to do well against their secondary. They also aren't as scary with Rees at the helm. UTL2 is again electric and Michigan wins another close one against the Irish. W 17-16
@Michigan State: Our defense should prevent any touchdowns since their offense is going to be terrible. Dantonio and Narduzzi will have to change their gameplan from years past due to our new pro-style offense. We have a bye before this game, which will help the good guys pull it out in East Lansing. W 16-9
@Northwestern: This is the middle game of a brutal November stretch. After physical games against Michigan State and Nebraska, Michigan drops one on the road to an experienced Northwestern team. This could be another overtime game with the home team coming out on top. L 30-24 (OT)
Ohio State: Another classic game. This should be a coin flip, so I will give it to the home team. W 31-28 Which leads to...
Ohio State (part two): As it is exceptionally difficult to beat a great team twice in a row, I am afraid I must give this one to the Buckeyes. L 27-21
I have us finishing 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Ohio State. Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl to face Oregon (since Stanford will play Alabama in the NCG). With the first at-large bid, the Orange Bowl selects an 11-2 Michigan team to face the ACC champion (let's just say Clemson--could be Florida State or dark horse Miami (YTM) as well).
Around the Big Ten: Ohio State 11-2 (7-2), Michigan 11-2 (7-2), Nebraska 9-3 (6-2), Northwestern 9-3 (5-3), Michigan State 8-4 (5-3), Wisconsin 8-4 (5-3), Penn State 7-5 (3-5), Indiana 6-6 (3-5), Minnesota 6-6 (3-5), Iowa 5-7 (2-6), Purdue 4-8 (2-6), Illinois 3-9 (1-7).
Bold Predictions: Minnesota beats Wisconsin. Indiana makes a bowl game(!).
Around the NCAA: Alabama wins three in a row with a win over Stanford in the NCG. South Carolina is undefeated when they lose a close one to Alabama in the SEC CG. There will be a tie atop the Big 12 standings between two to five of Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Oklahoma, and Baylor. Even if Louisville goes undefeated, they will not make it into the championship game.
Scenario 1 (happy times):
Michigan goes 11-1 in regular season
Wins B1G title game
In National Championship Game discussion.
Does not make National Championship due to SEC vs SEC matchup.
Wins Rose Bowl over Arizona.
Scenario 2 (doom/gloom):
We lose 4 out of 6 to ND, MSU, PSU, Nebraska and OSU.
Make B1G title game (outcome depends on statement above)
Lose to Pac 12 or SEC team in bowl game.
Al Borges gets fired after the bowl game loss.
opposite occurence from last year, where our record makes us out to be slightly better than we are. I don't really see any position as regressing (the D-line could be argued to be one area, but my understanding is that we're getting RS Freshman with tons of hype coming in to fill the exits, so I don't see that as a massive downgrade). All of the fairly hard games are at home, which helps. I could see the Ohio game as a loss, but a close one, and I just think we beat ND, though probably not by more than a TD, and I don't see any other losses (NW will be back to their old ways.) Nebraska has a hard time hanging with the big boys, PSU is really feeling the sanctions, and every other game is from a meh team. 11-1 regular season.
My prediction is we don't lose to ohio two weeks in a row. Whatever else happens this season, this MUST not.
I think our offense will be one the best in the B1G, if not the country. Our defense lacks depth at key positions and we REALLY need a pass rusher to emerge.
We beat OSU to ruin their title hopes, but lose a stunner to a lessor ranked team like....Iowa. We'll get a good bowl.
we show up to play every game,we have a shot at going 12-0. We will win our home games. The road is where we COULD lose if we don't show up to play,or IF we get a bad bounce. Brady Hoke has gone 14-0 at home in his first 2 seasons. 4-5 is our record on the road. 1-2 on neutral field. IF we our 12-0,we will win THE BIG TEN TITLE! Jake Ryan will come back in November and that will help us. Devin has a chance to be the first QB taken in the 2014 draft. Derrick Green will take the job at some point in the season. Jeremy Gallon will gain 1,000 yards.Devin Funchess will be nightmare for defense's. Taylor Lewan will be a TOP 5 pick. The defense will be just as good. I'm hoping BIG Ondre gets it togeather and starts at some point. Blake will take some time to get back but will be just as good. Michigan beats a SEC team 21-13 to win IT ALL,GO BLUE!!!
is 12-2, but its more likely that we go 11-3 or 10-4 because of the kinds of teams that well have to play in bowl games. plus, the BIG schedule this year is still going to be pretty tough
I predict Al Borges will not be retained for the 2014 season.
My prediction for the regular season. The 5 toss up games are: ND, @MSU, @NU, NE and OSU. I think we win 3 and lose 2 of these toss up games! We probably lose one that we should win? Purdue or PSU.
I'm going with 9-3 and the game we should've have won may cost us the divisional championship?
If Gardner turns out to be like GRIII, our young guys in the interior line turn out to be better than last seasons OL, we develop a top notch running game, We have a surprise deep threat at WR and our defense turns it on we could go 12-0.
Worse case scenario: We get bitten by the injury bug! We lose all our toss up games plus one we should have won. We finish 6-6.
Quite a range but I think we will go 9-3 or 8-4! and a New Year Day bowl game!
We don't play Purdue this year.
We will play them in the Big 10 title game after they knock off ohio like they should have last year.
My Predictions:
MSU is impossible to predict. Possibly best D, possibly worst O. Very good punter, unknown highly ranked true frosh kicker. Two new coaches. But, it's hard to see 6 losses on that fairly easy schedule. So, my impossible prediction is 8-4, give or take 3.
UofM is a year away from being a very good team. Lots of highly rated but fairly raw guys. Not sold on the DL this year. Or the OL for that matter...or the QB...and many more. But the bigten is still fairly weak. 9-3.
Game prediction - UofM has no answer for Braxton - OSU wins THE GAME. Picking OSU to beat whoever they play in the title game.
Sorry - OSU is going undefeated for the regular season. They lose the national championship game to one of at least 5 better teams out there.
ND (because they were mentioned a lot ) goes 9-3.
Suppose I should predict the MSU/UofM game. 6-6 at the end of regulation. 18-15 MSU in tripple overtime. The final play of the game:
MSU's ball. Third and long on the 22. UofM up by 3. Tough angle for the kicker on 4th down if MSU doesn't get closer to the middle of the field. Hand-off to...someone. He (I imagine the RB will at least be a dude) runs behind the OL toward the middle of the field. Safety bites on the run. Burbridge feigns a block on Countess. Countess blows past Burbridge toward the RB. RB pitches back to...a QB. Toss to...uh...toward Burbridge. Wide open. Makes a miracle one handed grab for a TD. Mike Sadler is awarded Player of the Game after punting for a combined 500 yards. Dantonio names the game winning play, "The Flea Flicker". MSU coaches make a hard push for freshman shot putter Riley Norman to play OT. Narduzzi hires a real estate agent. Shane Morris is disheartened by not having a chance to win the game for UofM, does some soul searching, and confounds UofM nation by dropping out of school to pursue a career as a stand-up comedian. Changes his name to Dat's BullShane. UofM nation tries to urgue that he has a much better chance to make it as an NFL QB than as a stand-up comedian. All sorts of colorful charts and graphs begin to pop up everywhere to prove their point. But the UofM nation is eventually comforted by the idea that a new scholarship has opened up.
Illinois has another bad year and can't recruit Chicago studs. Things start to really get dirty on the recruiting trail. Less wins - More losses.
Wisconsin goes back to a team with a huge OL and a good big RB. They still win, but it gets really boring in Madison. A typical easy non-conference schedule, and an average conference schedule puts them at 9-3. Offers a scholarship to Shane Morris next spring.
Iowa loses to Western Michigan and has 6 conference game loses. Get slaughtered by UofM and Neb to end the season. 5-7. The fan base is completely deflated.
Penn State stays competitive. Some two deep guys learn both O and D positions. Enough talented players to beat the little guys - now, and throughout the sanctions.
NW is not as good as billed. A fun team to cheer for when not playing your school, but just outmatched vs the better teams in the league. But not bad. 8-4.
Minnesota. Just too low of a ceiling. Not just talking about the cloud cover. Their Super Bowl is any bowl. 4-8.
Indiana. Their ceiling is "decent". I don't see that changing any time soon. Gets a good class occasionally, lots of classes with potential players, but they're somewhere in the bottom half this year and beyond. No win/loss prediction, just predicting they'll be bad again.
Nebraska. A chance to win their division. Neb, UofM, or MSU wins it. Nebraska plays a no-name non-conference schedule. Very reasonable conference schedule. 10-2/9-3. Over rated top 10 team by late Oct. Then, NW, at UofM, MSU, at PSU.
Purdue. Sleeper. 8-4. Pulls a big upset. I'm hoping vs Nebraska. So are you.