Stock Watch: Teams I’m Buying and Selling
[Ed: mathlete...
bummmp...
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One I’m buying in 2012, the other I’m selling
After digesting a couple dozen previews, preseason rankings and countless team articles, there are still a handful of teams that my numbers just don’t mesh with the hive mind. For an overview of my numbers used to predict team success, open up your HTTV to the Technical Dossier (no, not about Cass Tech recruiting). The overview is that factors such as returning experience, returning coaching and level of recruits still on the roster are all weighted based on historical significance. The formula is driven by which factors have been most important over the years, not which ones best suit a given (Michigan) team.
CLICK THROUGH for the Mathlete's post.
Buying
Texas-Lost in all of the shootouts of the Big 12 last season was a quietly strong Texas defense after adjusting for the quality of offenses faced. Texas is always loaded and they have over 80% percent production returning from their defensive line and backfield. If the offense can take advantage of half of its talent and the defense can maintain its success, look for the Longhorns to return to the title chase for the first time since Colt McCoy went down. The ongoing quarterback confusion is the only thing from going all in on Texas.
Ohio St-It pains me to admit it but this Buckeye team could be very dangerous. The defense should make major strides to an elite level this season with tons of talent and experience. Obviously a first adjustment under Urban Meyer could derail their aspirations, but unlike Rich Rodriguez’s spread entry, Meyer enters with both a quarterback and a potentially elite defense to help him hit the ground running. New coaches often provide big swings in year one for good or bad. The Buckeyes are set up for Urban to get credit for an upswing they probably would have had anyway, but it will probably take some significant first year growing pains to keep Ohio from a great theoretical bowl game.
Notre Dame-For once in their football life the Domers could actually be underrated heading into this season. Last year’s squad lost five games they had good chances to win. If the bounces go Notre Dame’s way this season they have a shot to be a top-10 team. Their biggest hurdle is going to be a schedule that entering the season looks to be far and away the nation’s toughest. Not an easy task with a Never Forget secondary, but there are plenty of other reasons to be optimistic on the Irish roster.
Missouri-The Tigers are unproven against SEC speed, but have the advantage of playing in the slightly less speedy East division. If Missouri’s prior success can translate into success in their new conference, I am predicting the Tigers can crack the top 20 at the end of the year. The level of competition is the major concern, but the middle of the SEC is not an impenetrable fortress.
Tennessee-Quarterbacks, receivers, defensive line and defensive backs are the key positions to have experience, according to my numbers and Tennessee is strong on all fronts. The offseason coaching exodus is cause for concern, but if the program can stay together Tennessee could end up as surprise second tier SEC team. Two elite receivers can go a long way.
Selling
LSU-Last year I sold LSU as a potential contender and got burned. This year I am going right back to the fire. Les Miles’ team should be a very good, top tier SEC team, but I see the Tigers as more of fringe title contender as opposed to the favorite that they have been pegged by many.
Michigan St-I have no doubts the Spartan defense is going to be good. I just don’t think they are going to be great and I have major questions about the offense. With a new quarterback and nearly 90% of their receiving production gone, there is little history on their side that they can have a productive offense. Breaking in that many new players at skill positions has Sparty projected to be one of the worst offenses in the country this year, Le’Veon Bell or not. Their defense will keep them afloat but unless Michigan St breaks in a new crew on offense at an unprecedented rate, the offense will be this team’s limiting reagent.
South Carolina-With possibly the best offensive (Lattimore) and defensive (Clowney) player in the SEC back there are plenty of reasons to be high on South Carolina this year. I just don’t think they have enough depth and experience across the board contend at the top of the SEC. I think a lot of voters/prognosticators don’t know what to after the big 5 (USC, Bama, LSU, Oklahoma and Oregon). South Carolina seems like one of the next shiniest things but I don’t see them having the team across the board to make it happen.
West Virginia-There is a serious case of Orange Bowl fever around the Mountaineer program. West Virginia will be a good fit stylistically in the Big 12 but I don’t think their offense can maintain the pace set in Miami (who could) and I don’t think their defense is going to give their offense any room to spare. West Virginia will be good and their offense will likely be great, but I don’t think they have a complete enough team to crack the Top 10 or so. With Casteel gone and facing the Big 12 offensive gauntlet, the Mountaineers are not going to be able to outscore everyone.
Arkansas-While I agree with the consensus on the first tier of the SEC (Alabama, LSU, Georgia) I have a completely different take on the second tier. Arkansas was one of those teams last year whose record was probably a bit overstated relative to performance. That’s goal for every team, but when predicting the next season you’re always better off going with performance versus record. The offense should still be solid but I have their defense predicted as 13th in the SEC and that just doesn’t cut it for a team with title aspirations.
Kansas St-Like their Cotton Bowl opponent Arkansas, Kansas State was a team whose record far exceeded their performance last year. I am predicting the Wildcats to be on par performance wise with last season but even an improvement could be a 2-3 win setback from last year with some of the games Kansas State pulled out in 2011. Arkansas and Kansas St are the two teams I have the biggest spread with versus the consensus, both ranked 20 spots or so worse by me than by most preseason rankings. Bill Snyder built something out of nothing, but even when he was at his peak, they weren’t nearly as lucky as they were last year. Just an unsustainable level of luck last year in Manhattan.
Boise St-What to do with Boise. The program consistency has been unstoppable from class to class and coach to coach. This year will certainly be their biggest test. 9% of DL production returns, 18% of LB returns, 33% of DB. They lost the winningest quarterback in NCAA history and nearly half of their receiving production. I am typically not big on underestimating Chris Petersen and company but if there is a year to do it, this is it.
Anyone not listed here is within the same ball park for my numbers and pollster consensus. I have Michigan right in line at the bottom of the top 10. Its easy to pick flaws on any college team because turnover is such a major player, but adding up all the factors says that Michigan may be flawed, but there is a reasonable case to pick them around #10 heading into the season. Even though I have Wisconsin in the same area, they are a question mark for me. Danny O’Brien may be a grad year transfer like Russell Wilson was a grad year transfer, but Danny O’Brien is not a quarterback like Russell Wilson was. My numbers have an adjustment built in, but I think Montee Ball and company could struggle a bit more than expected.
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:26 PM ^
I'd put W's chances of winning the Leaders at around 50%, with the other 25% about evenly split b/n Purdue and Illinois. That's for 4 reasons:
1. I don't think Wisconsin is that good w/ weaker O-line, QB, and WR. I don't think the defense is all that great. Like Michigan, Wisconsin has a hole at guard that it's trying to fill. Thus, there's a decent chance that they lose to MSU, OSU and Nebraska.
2. Purdue is better than people think. And, Wisconsin plays at Purdue.
3. Illinois has an easy schedule that is worth a win versus Wisconsin and Purdue, so even though I don't think they're as good as Wisconsin and Purdue, they get in the convo.
4. I think Iowa and Northwestern aren't good at all --- with Iowa the tougher call of the two. This reduces the chances that Purdue and/or Illinois have a loss that Wisconin doesn't.
August 22nd, 2012 at 5:03 PM ^
The BTN crew kept talking up their D, but I don't see it. The LBs are tough as hell, sure, but they're not great athletes. I don't see any impact players on their D, no disruptive forces. Their coaching was horrible at times, too. They were absolutely running in circles at times against Sparty last year, though you have to give credit to STAEE for some of that.
And there's simply no way they replace the production of Wilson. And I also think Purdue is going to scare some people.
August 22nd, 2012 at 5:38 PM ^
Second the questions about Wisconsin's defense. Oregon put up 670 yards in the Rose Bowl, and sure, they're Oregon, but MSU put up almost 500 yards in the Big 10 championship game. Those LBs put up huge tackle stats but they struggle against any type of speed. Add in the struggles they have when they play away from Camp Randall and I see them losing to Nebraska and Purdue this year.
Edit: Add in that most of their coaching staff left in the off season. They've got 6 new assistant coaches.
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:47 PM ^
I think you have to give Borland his proper respect given the hughe amount of TFLs he had last year. Taylor has a ton of tackles but not the other things, though geeze, that's a lot of tackles anyway. But the DL and DBs might be worse than Indiana's.
The 2 units that Purdue has that are relatively stinky are: the OL (admitedly important) and the LBs. Everythin else I'd put at about average (QB, receivers) or above average (RB, DL, DB).
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:28 PM ^
I've been watching their All-Access shows, and they seem both very confident and in excellent shape. You can also tell a bit from those shows why Meyer is such a good coach. Meyer + the four/five star guys that make up most of OSU's lineup is going to equal a very good team right away. Their schedule is pretty weak this year too (a different issue, I realize). They'll win at least ten games this year. Hell, they could go undefeated.
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:16 PM ^
I don't see any way they go undefeated this year. There are transitions all over the place and their OL sucks. 9-3 maybe, even with the easy schedule.
August 22nd, 2012 at 9:34 PM ^
I think 9-3 is probably right, but don't underestimate their defense. While their O is getting revamped, the D should be excellent. At the very least, it will keep them in games and may even steal a win or 2.
I can probably circle three games I wouldn't be surprised if they lost: @ MSU, @ Wisc, and Michigan. But there are reasons one could argue they could win these games...
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:37 PM ^
I don't disagree that MSU might a be somewhat overrated at the moment, but to say they're going to have "one of the worst offenses in the country" is over the top.
Football Outsiders' projections say the offense will be the 37th best in the country. (16th on defense, 24th overall)
They return a lot of experience on the offensive line, and Andrew Maxwell has as much experience in the program as you could ask for as a new starter at QB.
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:54 PM ^
Since 2006 13 BCS teams have lost their starting QB and over 85% of their offense. Two teams (Ole Miss 2006 and Ks St 2010) improved, 3 stayed about the same and 8 teams cratered by a substantial margin. MSU could be an exception this year but history is not on their side.
August 22nd, 2012 at 5:07 PM ^
BOOM - Facts.
August 23rd, 2012 at 9:26 AM ^
So I'm going to admit I don't have a good intuitive understanding of your rating system.
Can you clarify the 85% figure?
MSU loses 6 of 11 offensive starters: 5 of 6 skill position starters but only 1 of 5 offensive linemen. (It's only 5 of 11 starters if you count Sims as a starter since he was listed as a co-starter for the the bowl game.)
MSU loses 68% of yards gained from scrimmage by backs and receivers.
Definitely rebuliding on the offensive side of the ball, but I think we've got more back than 15%. Again, I agree MSU is getting a little overhyped right now, but I don't buy the "cratering" prediction.
August 23rd, 2012 at 10:12 AM ^
The 85% is based on receiving production from receivers/tight ends only (backs excluded). Bell's return is factored into the equation separately but losing essentially an entire receiving corps and a quality quarterback, independent of everything else is not a combination that has a great history of offensive success. I would love to factor in offensive line but at this point I haven't been able to determine a quantitiative method with sufficient history to include.
August 23rd, 2012 at 10:19 AM ^
I'd argue you're picking the two least favorable variables to come up with your comparison group then. I'd bet that out of those 13 teams, only a few returned almost the entire running game (O-line plus RBs). There will be regression, but it will be somewhat cushioned.
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:39 PM ^
I'll be glad once South Carolina loses 2-3 games this fall. The Gamecocks fans around the Charleston area can shut their yappers. They all think this is finally their year for an outright SEC title and a BCS berth. As is tradition.
Also selling on Clemson. All the talent in the world, but no heart. And a coach named "That Boy."
August 22nd, 2012 at 5:06 PM ^
mathlete content - reason no. 4716 why this is the best college football blog.
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:38 PM ^
I immediately stop what I am doing and read Mathlete's content when he posts. Overall, I think he is a close second to Brian but since Mathlete posts less, it seems more valuable.
August 22nd, 2012 at 5:27 PM ^
Arkansas 13th D in the SEC? Really? Combine that with John L. and it's definitely time to short the Razorbacks.
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:02 PM ^
Tennessee is a real solid sleeper pick. Justin Hunter, a definite top-10 receiver in the country, returns from an ACL injury suffered last season against Florida. Da'Rick Rogers had around 70 catches last year for the Vols as well. Tennessee's defense is more stout that people give them credit for, and i really like what Dooley's doing down there. Not to mention that Tyler Bray is on the path towards being a top ten pick in the 2014 draft. The only question I have is if they can replace Tauren Poole at RB. In a rather weak SEC east, (outside of Georgia) 8 or 9 wins isn't out of the question IMO.
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:19 PM ^
Man, I have a hard time seeing LSU as a fringe title contender. Miles not only is a great recruiter, he oversigns and has a very good system. If they can make it through the $EC, I see them as legit (if they can get past U$C that is).
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:55 PM ^
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:59 PM ^
Freshman QB coming back should have notable improvement.
Decent RB and WR
Underrated DL and DB.
Schedule: 4 non-conf is: Indiana State, UMass (now FBS, so Ind St. counts), Ball State and Navy.
Downside is that the games IU can't win are at home. But I think they have a chance to win home against Iowa, at Penn St, at Northwestern (early in the year) and at Purdue. Break right and they need to just go 2-2 w/ these 4.
At the end of the day, bowl chances are under 50%, but not a whole lot, and I'm guessing that the IU price is much, much better.
August 22nd, 2012 at 8:28 PM ^
People didn't learn their lesson when they dissed State last year. Unreal.
Dantonio is a horrible person. Their culture of hate there is despicable. But they ARE good. Michigan fans acting like it is their birthright to never give Sparty its due come across as the worst kind of arrogant assholes.
August 22nd, 2012 at 11:10 PM ^
August 23rd, 2012 at 7:36 AM ^
MSU may not recruit elite players, but they can develop the hell out of the guys they get.If they keep winning, they will start getting those elite players, and still continue to develop them. Then Sparty really won't be going anywhere.
August 23rd, 2012 at 5:33 AM ^
August 22nd, 2012 at 8:51 PM ^
August 22nd, 2012 at 9:43 PM ^
Junk time is tossed. All plays in the first half are in and plays in the second half are in if the drives either begin or end within two TDs.
August 22nd, 2012 at 11:39 PM ^
August 23rd, 2012 at 12:14 AM ^
Thanks for writing in a way it's completely get-able, even for idiots like me.
August 22nd, 2012 at 11:36 PM ^
Until we regain control of the rivalry, MSU makes me nervous. I'm afraid Narduzzi may be their Bud Foster: turning meh recruits into great players and then carrying that team. I was dissapointed when he didn't go to A&M
August 23rd, 2012 at 4:58 AM ^
August 23rd, 2012 at 5:19 AM ^
Big teams I'll sell:
1. Teams from the state of Georgia. The dawgs are talented but it's the same story every year. The rambling wreck are always in the same boat. The triple option from under center hasn't gotten to a nat'l title since early 2000 Nebraska who go waxed by the canes.
2. Boise state and TCU - both perennial homewreckers enter new conferences. Both benigitted from weak conferences and now will have to prove themselves all over again on a bigger scale. I think both make bowl games but don't see either surpassing 8.5 wins.
3. Wisconsin and Michigan state - the way the badgers play will keep them in most the games they play. I don't like wiscy in big games and they tend to fold at crucial moments. Make the new starting qb throw more then ball runs and it should be difficult for them. MSU will have a solid defense and offensively a solid running game. Not sold on WR's or offensive line.
4. Biggest sell ever = John L Smith and arc kansas.
Have a great day all
August 23rd, 2012 at 8:31 AM ^
Well, 4 out of the 5 teams you are buying are teams I absolutely hate. Looks like it could be a frustrating year for me if Michigan doesn't live up to expectations (because if they do well, who cares what other teams are doing?).
August 23rd, 2012 at 5:54 PM ^
I will agree osuck-u will have a team that will be hard to beat. That's only because Urban had a whole year to scout every team in the Big Ten (working Big Ten games for ESPN). As for Notre Dame, yeah Michigan has a lot to worry about. This game is a trap game and Michigan seems to have the injury bug.
MSU is going to be a victory for Michigan, no questions asked. As for the rest, who cares, they're not on Michigan's schedule.
The biggest factor that outweighs all that.....Michigan has great coaches, period.
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