Trey Burke Update
Well, a few hours ago Brian posted on Twitter according to a source that Trey was having a change of heart and also the Free Press shared the same story. Apparently in the last hour or so on twitter, pictures of Trey Burke's dorm room have been posted and unfortunately all his bags have been packed. I think it is safe to say he is gone.
Link to the picture: https://twitter.com/#!/nrothschild3/status/187762662606782465/photo/1
But I can't say I think its a mistake.
I've been out of college for 10 years, and had (what I consider to be) a reasonably succesful career. During that 10 years I have made less than $850,000.
That is what the 30th pick (Ive seen Trey's evlaluations as high as 24, as low as undrafted). made in the draft last year, in 1 year. Supposing he sat on the bench for another year, he'd surprass $1.5M. I certainly won't hit that anytime in the forseeable future.
The rookie wage scale for 2011:
30th
|
$850,800
|
$889,100
|
$924,400
|
I went to the same high school as Trey, and I can say that if he made even a portion of that amount, he would far exceed what anyone else is earning. With the probably exception of Jared Sullinger, he will immediately be the highest earning graduate from Northland since Dwight Yoakam.
Knowing a knee injury, a bad year, or a myriad of other scenarios could put this in jeopardy, I can't fault him. And while no one is mentioning it, I'm sure the possibility of being drafted to play with his lifelong best friend is a factoring into his decision. Jared will probably be a top 10 pick, and Trey could easily go in the beginning of the second round..
Go Vikings, Go Blue, and best of luck Trey.
Anyone who says he's an idiot or that "any rational human being knows this is a stupid decision" clearly isn't thinking about the possibility that he is drafted at all, assuming he is just flushed through the D league straight to Euro ball. So...what if he gets picked up at 30ish...plays a year of D league and boom...makes a NBA team.
I thought Daequan Cook was stupid for leaving early (also after his frosh year), the guy didn't even start his freshman year (though was 6th man of the year in the B1G I believe). Now he is a solid role player on the best team in the western conference, banking 3.3 mil a year. Is anyone (other than the above poster) going to acknowledge that the kid could make it?
Good luck to the kid, hope he does make it.
making sense.
why don't you post the avg salary of all the 2nd round draft choices from last year, plus the other guys who left early and didn't get drafted. i bet half of those guys didn't even make the nba; the other half makes the league minimum of approx $400k. so now you're looking at an avg between $200-300k for year 1. then, many of those guys will fall of the roster in year 2.
if trey stays, he's more likely to be drafted in round 1 and be guaranteed the money you note but with the potential to be higher.
I only had average salaries for the first round. I did a quick look and couldnt find the second. I'm curious as well if you want to dig those up and share.
Anyone who pretty much knows they are going in the first round would be dumb not to go. It is huge money, and it's guaranteed.
Getting drafted in the 2nd round is a crapshoot. Yeah, You can still make good money compared to the rest of the population. But your contract is not guaranteed and the team can just dump you on a whim.
The question really is, if he came back and improved, would he be able to get his draft stock up enough to go in the 1st round for sure?
If he is gone, I wish him the best.
But the same why I 'wished' Morris good luck, I don't think Trey goes before the 40th pick or so. He is hurting himself longterm. Hope I am wrong...but when is the last time we were wrong?
Good decision by the kid. Trey will be fine. The MBB team probably won't be, though.
I Care about the "TEAM" all Michigan TEAMS....anything that Hurts the Team Im against. Ive followed Michigan Teams for decades..Those players that leave early I tend to forget and they fade away. I dont even really consider them Michigan Men...They are "ME" people not TEAM people...Is that right? I have no clue but if they do something that hurts the Team I dont like it..Trey Burke leaving hurts The TEAM...period...
Cross-posted from the other thread:
I'm not saying "he should have gone" because the only thing that will determine that is how he fares.
But the idea that he's underdeveloped is a bit much, in my opinion. He was, arguably, the most productive PG in the nation from a statistical standpoint, and was definitely the most productive of guys that might be in this draft. This draft is EXTREMELY thin in Point Guards. I realize Austin Rivers is a pro SG, but he played point at Duke, so here is Burke compared to his cohort in this class, using tempo-free stats to even out playing time:
Trey Burke: 105.3 ORtg, 53.8% TS%, 28.7 Arate, 18.6 TOrate, 30.6 FTrate
Austin Rivers: 104.7 ORtg, 53.8% TS%, 13.0 Arate, 17 TOrate, 45.8 FTrate (Burke was as good a shooter, a much better facilitator, equivalent risky with the ball, not as good at getting to the line)
Tony Wroten: 95.5 ORtg, 48.8% TS%, 24.5 Arate, 21.7 TOrate, 59.1% FTrate (Burke is superior at everything other than getting to the line)
Marquis Teague: 99.4 ORtg. 49.1% TS%, 25.5 Arate, 23.7 TOrate, 33.8 FT rate (Burke is superior in everything other that getting to the line, where he is nearly equal)
Tyshawn Taylor: 104.2 ORtg, 56.9% TS%, 29.7 Arate, 22.6 TOrate, 42 FTrate (Taylor grades out as slightly better in everything other than turnovers, but his usage was sufficiently smaller for Burke to provide more value - hence the higher ORtg)
From a standpoint of PRODUCTION, Burke is arguably the best PG in the draft.
The knock is that Trey is a minimum of 4 inches shorter than all these players. But staying in college won't make him grow.
If college stats translated into NBA potential, we'd have a lot of short white guys making the all-star game every year.
Thank you for making my point.
Burke could "improve" next year, and he'd still be drafted in the same spot because he's 5'10" and not terribly athletic. If being good in college was what mattered to the NBA, he'd be the first guard taken.
this is flawed logic. right now burke is 5'10" - strike one. i think almost everyone on this board thinks his game needs improvement (ie. shot, court vision, etc). Yet, you seem to think he wouldn't get drafted higher if those things do improve. i don't get it.
if i'm a GM why would i take a chance on a 5'10" guard who has to improve in a lot of areas? i would be more likely to take a more polished "short" PG like jordan taylor. imo, taylor improved his draft stock a lot by staying the past two years. is it definitive? No. but likely, yes.
Your logic is flawed because Jordan Taylor doesn't make a single mock draft that exists. If Burke is getting a draft grade, he's regarded as a better prospect.
The Point Guards in this draft are Austin Rivers, Marquis Teague, Tony Wroten, Tyshawn Taylor, and Trey Burke. 4 of them are freshman. All of them have weaknesses. Yet Rivers is getting a lottery grade, and Wroten and Teague are getting 1st round grades DESPITE being measurably worse at basketball.
Why?
BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL AT LEAST 6'3".
You forgot Kendall Marshall, and possible lottery pick, and with those 4 point guards going in the first round, and the stacked talent at point guard in the league, it doesnt look good for Burke
Agreed that these statistics show that Burke should be considered the top PG in the draft, but the truth is that the statistics do not matter. Right now Trey is anywhere from the 5th-7th point guard in the draft, and the issue is, the league is already pretty stacked with young point guard talent, there are very few teams who do not already have two established point guards on their team, and this years free agency really plays a part in the draft process. There are 4 very good guards entering free agency this year with, Deron Williams, Nash, Eric Gordon, and Jameer Nelson. If teams who have lottery picks need a point guard and think they have a pretty good shot at one of these established players, they will address a different need in the draft, and that would mean the guys like Kendall Marshall and Austin Rivers will drop in the draft, which unfortunetely for Trey, would mean that all the other point guards in the draft would also be negatively affected by it.
Italian Afro Man, COME ON DOWN!!!
#stillhopingitsnotnecessary
Who knows how his experience has been outside of the team? Sure, his Michigan education might be free, a perk which most of us can't imagine giving up, but I'm sure it is no picnic. That could also influence his decision. Stay, and you're not just playing basketball for another year, you're also signing up for another year of classes and all that it entails.
Getting through Michigan as a student-athlete is probably pretty brutal at times. Even with the academic assistance they get.
Do I think it's short-sighted to leave? Sure. But let's recall that there may be more to it than the siren call of pro money and fame. Maybe he wants to get out from under the soul-crushing GRIND that college is at times, particularly if school hasn't been your focus in the preceding 5 or more years.
the grind of college? the soul-crushing GRIND of being a student athlete? you mean unlike the soul crushing GRIND that is real life? in a law firm or a D-league travel grind? dude.
Dude.
I'm saying his decision could feel like this:
Stay at Michigan: play the game I love, learn plays, get coached, train hard, BUT ALSO have to take classes, show up for lectures, attend study table, write papers, read books, work on projects, meet with tutors, etc.
Leave Michigan to play pro at some level: play the game I love, learn plays, get coached, train hard. Full stop. WITHOUT the full-time job of being a student on top of it.
If you're not into school, and maybe you haven't been into school for a long time now because your athletic talents have directed your focus elsewhere.... the 'get an education' piece of staying might feel like more of a millstone than a fantastic benefit. yeah yeah yeah, I know playing in the NBA or the D League isn't all sunshine and roses and its hard work and there's lots of uncertainly. But he's got a lot of that here, too. Plus school on top. Maybe he doesn't like that mix.
I'm not trying to argue any of your points, because they are all valid. College is what most everyone that wants to be a professional and achieve what they want to achieve in life has to put up with. The lectures, study halls, papers, exams, ect., is just what we have to deal with to get where we want to go. If for any reason he doesn't get guaranteed money or something happens where he doesn't have basketball money coming in, he will wish he put up with the annoyances of going to a place like UM (with great academic resources and tutoring available as a student athlete) to get his degree, IMO. Or stayed long enough so all he had to do is cap it off, not take 100+ credits worth of classes.
I still am having a hard time comprehending Trey Burke in the NBA. Seriously, he's still looks like a baby. He'll be swimming in a league of genetically mutated man children. I cant think of one NBA roster where he is better than the point guards they currently have. Hopefully he likes Turkey.
On a positive note, hopefully this helps with recruiting and we see some positive blowback from putting a couple PG's in the league.
He's a great athlete and was awesome for the school. Go Blue, God Bless. God Speed Trey, may you never find yourself driving the lane against Kendrick Perkins.
I mean, it's not like the Michigan "family" would turn on him the second he's no longer useful to the basketball team. I can't even imagine seeing something like that. Where on earth would Burke get the idea that college basketball is a business of sorts in which everyone uses everyone? That would be a crazy idea. Michigan fans have his back through thick and through thin, right? And they certainly wouldn't attack him in a public forum - that's for sure.
Reading through this thread, I'd be in the proverbial foxhole with some of you guys any day of the week. You're true blue.
Will you please change your avatar?...I've already forgotten who that is. /
Eh. Brian had it right with posting Henri. All the arguing, prospecting, and speculation is silly until we see what happens. I suppose there is a chance that players, coaches, or even the AD may check this blog, but my guess is no. Oh well, such are sporting blogs.
Whatever happens, thanks for the Big Ten (co)Championship and wins over MSU and OSU. Wish we went further in the tournament this year.
Does that mean he'd go 20-35 in any given year? Is it taking stock of teams' projected needs? Is it his ranking among people expected to enter the draft? I'm willing to bet there's way more than 15 people who've been evaluated "20-35."
I'm all for kids bolting for $$, but this is a mistake. Another year of pretty much the same or slightly better play and he's in the lottery. AND, earns enough credits for an associates if he were to transfer later on.
Trey Burke is NEVER in the lottery unless he became Ty Lawson.
And he's nothing approaching that sort of athlete.
Respectfully disagree. Lawson is a good comparison, TL averaged 4 less points and one more assist than Trey as a freshman. Obviously Trey had to carry more of the load than TL, but I think Trey is a better and more creative scorer.
I think Lawson is on a completely different level of athleticism.
One thing I have been pounding my head into the wall about in these threads is that the NBA largely cares about your physical package than your college numbers - if it didn't, Draymond Green would be a lottery pick.
Burke is probably 2 inches shorter than Ty, and significantly less explosive.
I see, honestly, Mario Chalmers as a closer comparison. Chalmers shooting, as a freshman, was roughly equivalent to Burke's, he's approximately the same size, and is, to my eye, roughly equivalent an athlete.
If, like Chalmers, Burke can become a reliable three-point shooter, he'll stick in the NBA. Guys have 15 year careers based on nothing other than the ability to shoot.
Super Nintendo Chalmers.
Perry Jones.
That is all.
Grow up its yet to be seen if its a stupid decision or not.
Good question. I wondering the same thing but I thought maybe I missed something.
Ahh redemption:
Dan Patrick just said Trey is leaving. Seems kind of unprofessional to say that on a national radio show before it has been confirmed.
10 stages of grief. I waited until I reached acceptance before posting. While I think this is terrible decision by Trey and his family it is their decision not mine or anyone else.
Good luck Trey. I hope it works out in the future. If only one of your final shot attempts had gone down against Ohio...
Really? Are you sure?
The problem is not that he is leaving early. The problem is that he's making a bad decision. I don't think anyone would be pissed if he was the next Lebron, but it's almost certain he won't be going in the first round. It's a mistake.
You're actually saying that teams whose best players stay three or four years can't contend for and win championships? That's a novel view, I must admit.
Can you name any championship teams over the last 15 years that didn't receive prominent contributions from players who entered the draft before their junior year? I guess there's Florida in 2007, but that seems like an outlying case of a team that featured several players that could have gone pro as sophomores but who basically decided that they wanted another championship (plus Speights contributed a bit, and he went pro after his sophomore year).