Would Michigan be satisfied with Brian Kelly’s coaching record?

Submitted by Blue_Goose on November 7th, 2020 at 11:15 PM

Against my better judgment I’m posting this now, in the heat of our toughest moment. 

If they beat a weakened Clemson team, Brian Kelly is in the National Title hunt for the second  time in his career.  Ignoring the 2012 season being vacated for academic issues(Or using it as a platform for academic barriers to on field success).  I know we want to compare Harbaugh to Urban and Dabo and the Devil Saban, but Kelly at Notre Dame is a more realistic comparison due to the legacy, culture, tradition, expectations etc. that also needs to be managed 

I know “to hell” with them, and yet, if you look at their history after Bo/Mo/Lo I mean Lou, it is a similar road to “Return to Glory”. Kelly’s record is actually worse than Harbaugh’s at this point in their tenure even including the 12-1 season.  Also, Kelly survived a 4-8 record in year 7(not 6) 

If we think Harbaugh can be Our “Kelly” and of we found him quicker than ND  do we keep him?  Or do we ditch him and gamble on who might be the next lightening on a bottle?

I personally would be pleased if Jim could be what he is now (a little better than Kelly with a much more difficult schedule) and I’d support giving him the opportunity to get us in the National Hunt every 5-6 years (I think we should seriously consider 2016 one of those years)

I know firing Jim would be the popular thing, but leaders need to do the best for the organization overall and oftentimes staying the course is significantly more difficult than changing.  A truth one can never really know without alternate parallel universes  

Commence meltdown below

Grampy

November 8th, 2020 at 7:49 AM ^

You know OSU has become elite for more reasons than just the coach. Exhibit A is Ryan Day seems to have picked up where Urban left off.  Their success is institutional, from outside-in (boosters->Board of Trustees->Administration->Athletic Department).  Do we want to become them, or Clemson/Alabama/Georgia, or worst case, Old Miss?  I'm not suggesting that we don't need to change something about coaching (worst 2 game performance since Hoke), but I also like the reputation of the school and it's commitment to integrity.  My preferred means of handling this season is to be thankful what my alma mater is, not what it isn't.

Wolverheel

November 8th, 2020 at 12:45 AM ^

Jesus Christ. I know we're being all BPONE and I'm not even remotely arguing that Harbaugh's job here has been successful in the slightest, but this is reactionary bullshit. Let's gaze upon their average S&P+ finishes since Harbaugh came. 

2015

Michigan: 10

Notre Dame: 8

2016

Michigan: 6

Notre Dame 18

2017

Michigan: 13

Notre Dame: 12

2018

Michigan: 10

Notre Dame: 13

2019

Michigan: 10

Notre Dame: 19

2020

Michigan: 16 (not updated for this week. Looks like the drop will be to about 25 so we'll use that for the average)

Notre Dame: 7

______________________________________

Michigan average since 2015: 12.33

Notre Dame average since 2015: 12.83

 

There is a single difference between Brian Kelly and Jim Harbaugh as coaches. One has OSU at the end of every season, the other doesn't. It's just mind boggling how irrational some of you get because of a sports game. Are we going to ignore Brian Kelly going 1-3 against Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke? Because he beat an absolutely decimated Clemson team that escaped by sheer dumb luck one week ago against Boston College? Be better. FFS.

Swayze Howell Sheen

November 8th, 2020 at 8:36 AM ^

I mostly agree with your point.

That said, last night, ND looked good against a good team. Yes, if Clemson is at full strength, it may be a different story. But ND looked like a good football team. UM looks like shit. This is why people are posting threads like this. Is Harbaugh good enough to recover after what is going to be a very bad 2020 season?

 

Perkis-Size Me

November 7th, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^

You know the difference between ND’s success and Michigan's lack thereof? ND doesn’t have OSU on its schedule every goddamn year. Much less having to share a division with them.

You swap schedules and Harbaugh has his team in the playoffs at least once by now, if not twice.

The Homie J

November 7th, 2020 at 11:47 PM ^

Yup, it's like a Michigan coach should occasionally beat their primary rival.  Sparty has constantly beat us/upset us over the last 20 years despite lesser talent.  Auburn has knocked off Saban's Alabama teams several times.  Hell Sparty has 2 wins over Ohio State and Penn State has a win over Ohio State in the last 10 years, but we don't.  You simply can't succeed at Michigan if you lose to Ohio State every single year, but here we are.

chunkums

November 7th, 2020 at 11:40 PM ^

I think this is right. Also, Kelly hit some really dark times from 2013-2016 before deciding to step back from the offense in 2017. Kelly is actually one reason I am (unpopularly) not on the fire Harbaugh train. I think we need to revamp our defense and emphasize recruiting if we want to compete with Ohio State. Regarding offense, I think we're mostly on the right track. We have 9 new starters this year and one of them (and the other starting tackle) was out today. According to Bill Connelly, wide receiver experience is the strongest predictor of offensive success. We're breaking in a bunch of new receivers and we have a new QB behind a new OL throwing to the receivers.

Catchafire

November 7th, 2020 at 11:31 PM ^

Firing Harbaugh is stupid right now.  He had a good class of recruits and only has one more year on his contract.  Not to mention how bad of a PR look it is.

That being said, do you think ND could consistently beat OSU the last 5 years?  They got rocked by OSU the last few times they played.

FrozeMangoes

November 7th, 2020 at 11:55 PM ^

Who said anything about consistently beating OSU?  Just stop giving up historic numbers to them on offense.  Rutgers played OSU tougher today than UM has the past two years.  James Franklin, who's team has been hit just as hard with Covid opt-outs as UM, put up some resistance to OSU last week. 

njvictor

November 7th, 2020 at 11:31 PM ^

You can't really compare Notre Dame and Michigan in terms of record due to how different their schedules are. Notre Dame hand picks their schedule to be easy, but just hard enough to where it's not cake and people take them seriously. Michigan plays a B1G east schedule

BleedThatBlue

November 7th, 2020 at 11:33 PM ^

I haven’t fully followed ND as of late, but Brian Kelly, to my knowledge, has not produced teams this bad. His teams have always been competitive. The crap we have seen in the last 4 games have been ridiculous. He’s going against the presumed NC champs and going toe to toe. We would get killed by them. 

A Lot of Milk

November 7th, 2020 at 11:34 PM ^

You cannot compare their two records because in an average year Michigan plays 3-4 teams better than the best team Notre Dame plays in a given year

Brian Kelly would be 8-4 playing in the Big ten east every year

TK

November 7th, 2020 at 11:34 PM ^

Kelly makes the “fire Harbaugh” argument pretty interesting. He had a bunch of not great seasons, went 4-8 in year 7, and after that has gone 39-6. I’ve always thought BK was a very good coach, but it took a LONG time to figure it out at ND. Is it possible Harbaugh could take a similar path? It’s not likely, but it’s possible. We have seen Harbaugh teams looking borderline elite at certain points in his tenure. 

BlueMk1690

November 7th, 2020 at 11:37 PM ^

Kelly survived the 4-8 year only because of that 12-0 regular season in 2012. Harbaugh in spite of a lot of promise hasn't really delivered that kind of season. We can talk about 2016 here, but don't forget aside from OSU there was two more Ls that season. I think people would be willing to take a losing season on the chin this year if Harbaugh had actually delivered a dream season with a win over OSU and a trip to the playoffs to follow. But with every other season being a sort of disappointment in the end because of OSU and then a bowl loss to follow (except once)..this is just the straw that breaks the camel's back.

The Homie J

November 7th, 2020 at 11:51 PM ^

That's really the crux of the argument.  Gus Malzahn at Auburn is constantly on the hot seat, but several wins over Alabama keeps him alive.  James Franklin is currently 0-3 this year, and things look dire.  But 1 win over Ohio State and a B1G title keeps him off the hot seat.  Mark Dantonio survived several years past when he really should have, because of his conference championships and a CFP appearance.  John Cooper had a horrible record vs Michigan in the 90's, but got 11 seasons because he had at least a few wins vs Michigan and competed for conference championships year in and year out.  Brian Kelly went 4-8 at Notre Dame, but a title game appearance in 2012 kept him alive until he could course correct.  Harbaugh's issue is he's currently in the midst of a down period, but with nothing to hang his hat on or keep the fanbase happy about.  Even Brady Hoke got 4 years, mostly because a win over Ohio and that 11-win season.

 

Success goes a long way, and the sad reality is that Harbaugh really has no major accomplishments to give him leeway to survive a down period.

DoubleB

November 8th, 2020 at 12:06 AM ^

I agree with this take. IF Michigan had beaten OSU in 2016 and made the CFP OR 2018 and made the CFP, this season would be season in a completely different light: a rebuilding year on offense and a gap year (due to recruiting errors) on defense. In other words, get the experience in a COVID year, hopefully win a few games, get to a minor bowl and reload for 2021.

But instead the take is that Harbaugh never got over the hump and is now on the downswing. Hence, fire everyone in city of Ann Arbor.

NeverPunt

November 7th, 2020 at 11:44 PM ^

I’m so glad to be nearly 40 so my “age-appropriate not giving as much of a shit about Michigan football” can coincide with the this current downturn. Hopefully by the time I’m 60 they’ll be back to “occasionally winning games they aren’t supposed to” status. 

and to hell with Notre Dame. My problem isn’t that we aren’t winning championships- it’s that we are watching a season of inexperienced and poorly coached players fumble their way through losses to terrible teams because we have no depth at key positions and the roster is stocked with “projects” in year 6 while the gap with OSU widens by the moment. Maybe no coach can catch them and bring a big ten title to Ann Arbor. But this roster built by the current staff is insufficient and their coaching isn’t making up for anything.

FrozeMangoes

November 7th, 2020 at 11:59 PM ^

Here is my reservation regarding Fickell.  His teams look cohesive and fly around.  However, he is out recruiting everyone in the AAC because of his contacts in OH and getting a lot of the guys OSU doesn't want.   Does that translate to Michigan?  Is he a really good recruiter who could go toe to toe in OH for some top guys or is he recruiting above his weight bc OSU is kind of ushering fringe kids his way?