A word about quarantines and this virus...
As this virus has a 2-14 day incubation period (I've heard 14 is less common but still possible), there's something that needs to be said about the quarantine procedure.
A quarantine does not work the day it is put into place. Some people I've talked to are surprised that the infection rate is still rising, and might think the Q is useless. But given the incubation period, this really should not be a surprise. It's like a car still moving even after the gas tank runs out.
A reasonable quarantine length for this virus would be AT LEAST 14 days, if for no other reason than determining who does and does not have the virus.
At the end of 14 days, if you have stayed reasonably quarantined, and if you are not symptomatic, then it's reasonable to assume that you are fine, and therefore can return to work.
People with symptoms and do not need to be hospitalized (which would be the vast majority according to statistical data) would need to remain home for at least another couple of weeks.
So the point here is that the numbers at this point really won't matter until closer to the end of the first 2 or maybe even 3 weeks. What we're seeing is a "momentum resonance of infection"
The real test will be to see what the numbers are around April 6th or so, as it will give us a better framework to work with.
Bottom line: the numbers (good or bad) cannot be fully trusted right now.
Ok..
Yeah, your pointless fucking post was much better than this one.
The OP just provided more usefulness in one thread than you have in 2+ years. Maybe it's time you go coyly pretend to be Shea Patterson somewhere else. Your shtick is beyond tired.
Bro we are going to be chilling until mid July just need to accept it.
I accepted it when I went out for some fresh produce the other day. Store full of people, most not wearing masks or gloves, getting close to each other, picking up things and then putting them back on the shelves, etc. Basically acting normally. Even with the shelter in place this thing is going to continue to spread unless people start taking it seriously.
Right now, ordinary people really shouldn’t keep masks for themselves. They should donate them to hospitals. No matter how much you may think you need one, they need them a lot more. After we’ve increased our supply and hospitals have enough, then the general public should start wearing them.
I've only seen a few people wearing surgical masks / scarves, not a single person in an N95 or similar. I was going to donate a mask I used when I redid the bathroom, but it's very old and not in great shape. I was, however, happy to find it and a couple filters in the garage. It's a P100 and damn near impossible to use unless you're sitting still. But I've used it since little Hatter's lungs aren't great, and neither are Mrs. Hatters for that matter. I really can't have that virus in my house.
It's going to spread until 70+ percent of have been exposed and have antibodies. Just a question of sooner or later?
Screw that. I'm going to be going up north on weekends once the weather warms up. I won't be around anyone else anyway.
I hope they cancel cherry fest here in TC. That'd be great
Excellent explanation of the why's of a minimum of 14 days of self-isolation.
Kudos to you for posting this!
Other countries have seen the number of new cases rise for about 10 days after the start of drastic steps, like shelter in place because of that incubation period. Expect that it will continue to get worse for a while. However, it won’t clear out the virus that quickly. Shelter in place will likely need to stay active for much longer than that, there will still be lots of new cases around.
The number of new cases will probably rise for another 20+ days. What Italy has seen is the rate of increase begin to slow down, at around day 11 or so.
Italy was also feeding the sick with ibuprofen on WD’s recommendation. Didn’t go well.
/s
Seriously though, if your not feeling well for any reason stay away from the Motrin for now
UWW-
There is no science behind that.
I think we’re saying the same thing, the number of new cases each day will begin to decrease In that timeframe. Here’s an article pointing that Italy and Wuhan have had similar timeframes, and also making a really good point that they were both in response to much stronger measures than the US is taking, so it’s still very much hopeful that we may see improvement in the new cases per day in 11-12 days, but not guaranteed at all.
The fact that a relatively obvious post like this needs to be made is why I have little optimism about the outcome of these next few months. The US is going to be the laughingstock of the world in regards to COVID-19
Actually, the joke is on you.... if you only knew....
In every country there is the same debate about precaution vs overreaction. In every country there are people who don’t take the measures seriously. There’s nothing unique about the U.S. here.
Serious question here but is it political in other countries? I'm thinking if the seatbelt and smoking thing was to come around it would get pushback by no less that 25% of the country. Luckily it has already been accepted before using seatbelts or not smoking could become a conspiracy. Maybe the whole world is nutty but I'm worried about our specific strain of nuts here.
It’s pretty much the same debate everywhere.
In Finland for example the “it’s an overreaction to shut down” side has had the upper hand. Bars and restaurants are still open. But their business is collapsing and many are voluntarily closing now as the virus has become more widespread (they have the same cases per capita as the U.S.), and now their government is considering a shutdown.
Sweden has been lethargic taking action. They just recently banned gatherings of more than 500 people - so their ski resorts (which are still open) are advertising “499 person parties.” Seriously. They have more cases and deaths per capita than us.
March 23rd, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
That's true, but it looks like cases and deaths per capita aren't much higher there. And they're ahead of us.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
If you look at new cases they climbed earlier and have been a bit up and down but relatively stable. The US is just skyrocketing and I expect that to continue for weeks.
Another important point to make is that there is no assurance that your body will build up a full immunity to COVID-19. That means that there is a chance you can get re-infected, so returning to work after being declared healed still could present a risk.
This. And also, just because you are not showing symptoms, does NOT mean you necessarily do not have coronavirus, as a recent study showed that 17.9% of people who tested positive for coronavirus on the Diamond Princess were asymptomatic, yet they were still able to spread the disease.
Trump should get out in front of this once and for all.
Close everything for the entire month of April. Ban all travel.
Or go in the complete opposite direction. Open everything back up. Overpopulation is the world's greatest threat. Take this opportunity to something about it. No heroic measures. Treat whom you can. As for the rest,
Vlad, I know this would foil your plan to keep Donald in the White House, but I, for one, would be fine with letting all Trump supporters roam around and gather in an unfettered manner...wherever, however and with as many people as they please.
The rest of us can stay safely tucked away in our homes...thus thinning out Donald's voter pool and ensuring that he doesn't get a second term.
"hashtag no politics"
I mean, the kids are calling it the Boomer Remover.
Well that settles it, I am not going to pay for their college education.
Yet, you all love to call us republicans the hateful people and the fascists.
I don't have anything against Republicans or Democrats just because of their party affiliation. I'm a proud center-right independent who evaluates each candidate on his/her merits.
That being said, I can't understand why anyone supports Donald Trump, who is objectively a chronic liar and awful human being...and hardly a conservative.
I was somewhat heartened to learn that Nixon had about a 25% approval rating on the day he left office. In other words, it's always been the case that some people can't put aside their partisan leanings to acknowledge the truth of what's happening right in front of them.
I'm also an independent, but center left. Having said that, I can understand why some people like Trump and it's pretty simple - they hate everything the other side stands for and since you only get 2 choices.....Trump it is. Basically, "anyone but the other guy" mentality.
He's an avatar for a lot of people's (often justified) anger and he ran to the left of the D's on trade and manufacturing. People blame Clinton for NAFTA, but that (and several other shit bills) passed with veto proof majorities and the only no votes were D's.
Also there's a decent chunk of the population that knows their lives suck, no one is coming to their rescue, so fuck it, lets vote for the guy that's entertaining.
I am actually astonished at the number of people who've told me that they think Donald's a buffoon...but, "I voted for him because I hate the Clintons and I find Trump entertaining?" WTF?!? We are now voting for people because they're funny or entertaining?
I will admit that, in high school, I wrote in someone for student council that I found entertaining.
To this day, I am sure that ours is the only high school - at least in the early 1990s - that had a write-in vote for Don Adams.
Either a "/s" comment or you're a dumbfuck.
OK so you can have your open boarders, elimination of ICE, free benefits for illegal that US citizens can not get, late 3rd trimester abortions, socialist policies, idiotic tax policies etc. You brought up politics here...then do not run away liberal.
Most of what you mentioned nobody actually wants, despite what Fox News has been telling you.
Wait, I was assured that killing live babies was something liberals took joy in doing and only DJT could stop it. Infanticide is already illegal, but I want to make it more illegal so I’m voting for the guy who legitimately believes that windmills cause cancer and apparently doesn’t know the difference between Herpes and HIV
At this point, my house is closed to all "boarders." A late 3rd trimester abortion is what most of us call a "C-Section." Lowering taxes so the it only benefits the wealthy and large corporations and so that it artificially juices the economy is an idiotic tax policy. There are just as many unrealistic policies being promulgated by the far right as the far left, so stop it with using those positions as being representative of most Democrats. If you want to use isolated instances as representing a larger group, then I'll select Steve King as being representative of all Republicans. Please do yourself a favor and turn off FoxNews and get some FACTS.
March 23rd, 2020 at 10:40 PM ^
This whole ordeal has really brought out a shitload of libtards to the forefront on this blog. No politics my ass. Every damn post on this topic brings up some unwarranted political comments. Zip it.
March 23rd, 2020 at 10:34 PM ^
That's pretty fucked up, man. Hope you or none of your family gets that shit.
I remember back in the old days (about two weeks ago) when two mgobloggers commented that this will all last about two weeks so March Madness will just be delayed a bit. Ahhh, those were the days.....
We were so young and cute back then...now look at us.
No quarantine of an entire population, when members of that population are otherwise healthy, should be government mandated. #hottake?
You have the right to quarantine yourself. By all means, do it for your own health!
You have the right to prevent me from coming into your home.
You have the right to close your store and prevent people from entering.
You should not have the right to prevent me from leaving my home.
Social shame all you want, but basic rights should not be infringed by this pandemic. I, personally, will be careful. I'm mostly quarantining myself. It's sensible and logical. But should the government of my state try to force me to stay in my home...they better be prepared for a fight. Neg away.
This needs to be clarified: you’re not forced to stay in your home. You are allowed to go outside. What you can’t do is gather in large crowds outside, and there are only a limited number of businesses that are going to be open.
Okay, and governments following what you're saying are going to have much worse infection rates. If you want what you're saying, go ahead and vote for it. I, for one, prefer my free societies to have governments with emergency powers for situations just like this one.
Your concerns aren't unreasonable, and people should vigorously defend their civil liberties. But in my view, this situation is one of the most paradigmatic examples of where a federal government should have significant authority -- this issue is about as interstate as it gets. Whether folks in Florida quarantine and stop the disease affects me in Michigan quite a bit, both from an economic and health standpoint.