Wishing for Indiana's turnover luck

Submitted by mistersuits on November 16th, 2021 at 12:27 PM

I have too much time on my hands today and I started going down a rabbit hole ruminating on the upcoming OSU game. I sort of wish I hadn't at this point because while I knew the last few years were bad I didn't appreciate exactly how unfortunate they were.

So yeah, the last time the Buckeye offense lost a fumble was Carlos Hyde in the 2013 Devin Gardner/Marcus Hall classic. That was coincidentally the last time Michigan won the turnover battle in The Game (+1), and the only game in which Michigan has won the turnover margin in The Game since Lloyd Carr was the head coach. The 2011 Denard victory was the only game in that time period where turnovers were even.

So I wanted to chalk that up to sure, Michigan has lost 16 of the last 17 because OSU has been the better team year in and year out during that time. But there is some randomness to turnovers and so I wanted to see how often OSU turned the ball over versus everyone else on their schedule. So here are the total number of OSU turnovers have committed against their opponents since 2014:

OSU Turnovers Committed Since 2014:

  • Indiana 15
  • Michigan State 9
  • Penn State 8
  • Nebraska 7
  • Maryland 6
  • Rutgers 6
  • Virginia Tech 6
  • Wisconsin 5
  • Minnesota 5
  • Northern Illinois 5
  • Oregon 5
  • Iowa 4
  • Northwestern 4
  • Illinois 3
  • Clemson 3
  • Tulsa 3
  • UNLV 3
  • Kent State 3
  • Michigan 3
  • Purdue 1

So that's every other B1G team, including cross divisional match-ups except Purdue, several out-of-conference opponents that OSU only sees twice a decade including the powerhouses of Tulsa, UNLV, and UNI! In the case of Purdue (1 turnover, 2 games) they are equal to Michigan (3 turnovers, 6 games) when looked at a per game basis.

It's hard to explain away just how bad that is other than Michigan always gets OSU at their best (and luckiest). I have a hard time holding up Michigan's defense with Indiana's the last 8 years and pretending IU was better and not luckier. Just because the roulette number has come up red the last 8 times doesn't mean the next spin will be black. But also, like, eventually?

In conclusion, I think any analysis of this years' match-up has to start with an appreciation of just how much better OSU has been versus Michigan taking care of the football, citing specifically OSU outperforming their own baseline turnover performance every year in The Game. Additionally, I need more beer.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

 

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The Fugitive

November 16th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^

and when they do fumble it bounces like basketball into Dobbins' arms.

compare that to Shea dropping a shotgun snap.  some of it is luck and some of it is just a lack of concentration 

the Purdue number is interesting to me, they housed OSU a couple years ago

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TrueBlue2003

November 16th, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^

Yep, this immediately came to mind.  Unbelievable luck on that one. Sigh...

I'm not gonna approach the football, I'm not gonna approach the football, I'm not gonna approach the football....

Damnit, we have a shot at this though right?  If bounces are gonna finally go our way, it's with the two first round DEs right?

 

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Newton Gimmick

November 16th, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^

Purdue is just weird

In addition to their unranked-over-top-5 wins stat, how about this Purduvian mix of bad/good:

Most Turnovers by a Winning Team

Date:  Oct. 2, 1943

Record Holder:  Purdue

Record:  11 turnovers

Purdue coughed up nine fumbles and two interceptions in its 1943 clash with Illinois but still managed to win, 40-21.  The unlikely victory catapulted the Boilermakers to a 9-0 finish, including a shared Big Ten title and a No. 5 rank in the final AP poll.  Illinois went 3-7 that year.

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Newton Gimmick

November 16th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^

Here is each team's record vs OSU in parentheses

  • Indiana 15 (0-8)
  • Michigan State 9 (1-6)
  • Penn State 8 (1-7)
  • Nebraska 7 (0-6)
  • Maryland 6 (0-7)
  • Rutgers 6 (0-8)
  • Virginia Tech 6 (1-1)
  • Wisconsin 5 (0-5)
  • Minnesota 5 (0-4)
  • Northern Illinois 5 (0-1) (20-13 final score)
  • Oregon 5 (1-1)
  • Iowa 4 (1-0) (55-24)
  • Northwestern 4 (0-4)
  • Illinois 3 (0-3)
  • Clemson 3 (2-1)
  • Tulsa 3 (0-2)
  • UNLV 3 (0-1) (54-21)
  • Kent State 3 (0-1) (66-0)
  • Michigan 3 (0-6)
  • Purdue 1 (1-1)

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DairyQueen

November 16th, 2021 at 4:15 PM ^

lol turnovers are certainly not luck

-Forcing the ball into tight throwing windows

-Poor snap/communication/rhythm

-Bad hands receivers who turn catchable throws into pop-flys for the defense

-Dominant D-Lines that collectively can get enough pressure (from a good rush, reliable DBs, and not giving up big yardage on 1st) that can then afford to bat a ball out of the air

-Skill positions running to slow/east-west and getting surprised from behind, blind cutbacks that get you drilled

-Bad blitz pickup

-Shell-shocked QB

-Lack of mental focus/letting the pressure force you to try and go beyond what was practiced

-There's a million other (not gathering the ball before the tackle, WRs not jumping TO the ball regardless, bad underthrows, literally running the wrong WR route, etc.) but I guess those are simply very obvious errors compared to the small things that over time will increase the TO odds.

Of course you practice for all of this, precisely because turnovers at not random.

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MGoPoints: 6642

JonnyHintz

November 17th, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^

Turnovers are absolutely luck based. The majority of it is being in the right place at the right time and your opponent not being in the right place at the right time. Definitely moreso on fumbles, but tipped ball interceptions as well. Sure, sometimes a defender just makes a play on the ball and credit to him for that. 
 

Ojabo makes a strip sack, is it luck that Penn State has a lineman on the ground and it falls in his reach instead of rolling towards a Michigan player? Dax Hill made an interception earlier this year where he was already on the ground and the ball fell within his reach. Adding to the luck of the tipped ball falling in his reach, the other Michigan safety on the play collided with Dax and luckily didn’t contact the ball or Dax’s hands and knock the ball loose.

Yes, the players ultimately have to make the play to complete the turnover. But to act like luck doesn’t play a MAJOR factor in turnovers is just silly.

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MGoPoints: 48443

Blake Forum

November 16th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^

This is a great encapsulation of how much the Harbaugh Era has been defined by weirdly bad luck. Given how many good (if not transcendent) teams Harbaugh has had, it's genuinely strange that we've never gotten the bounces against OSU. And of course, a couple of the Michigan State losses are also remarkably unlucky. Doesn't excuse everything, of course, but Michigan's "struggles" strike me as a bit more defined by luck than, for instance, those of other bluebloods who can't consistently beat less talented teams, something Michigan does very, very well under Harbaugh

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Wolverine Incognito

November 16th, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^

This is a fantastic point. And I think I can explain some more of our woes against OSU in the context of weirdly bad luck.

15 and 19 were just talent differential to me. If you disagree with talent differential, I would still say OSU outcoached us. 18 is the same, no chance due to being outcoached.

16 and 17 is where the weirdly back luck comes in. Brian has always insisted that if we have a functional QB in either of those year, we win the Game. (Not to mention a dropped pick 6 in 17 that woulda put us up 21-0!)

And finally, as I ALWAYS point out, THERE WERE ZERO LIVE ACTION PENALTIES CALLED AGAINST OSU IN 16. That was so egregious, it was beyond "just bad luck."

Looking at the Game like this puts the Harbaugh era in a different context for me.

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MGoPoints: 5327

Dunder

November 16th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^

Was actually thinking during the PSU game - "has a loose ball, deflected pass bounced UM's way all damn year?" 

Now just hoping like hell that all the fortunate bounces are saving themselves for a certain game... 

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MGoPoints: 8072

MH20

November 16th, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^

A counterpoint is that this season, several Cade passes have been tipped (or thrown straight into an OL's helmet) at the LOS and luckily fell to the turf, despite a group of defenders in the immediate area. Michigan is quite fortunate that none of those were intercepted.

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AverageJoe

November 16th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^

To be fair Cade has been fortunate that some of his batted balls haven't been picked off.

It would be interesting to see how Michigan faired in turnovers vs. OSU in the Cooper years. 

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MGoPoints: 429

oriental andrew

November 16th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^

Ok, now do Michigan's turnovers against everyone else in the same timespan! I expect to see that data after lunch. ;)

EDIT: 

I see the data after lunch b/c I just pulled it together. 

Against teams we've played at least 4 times, we have turned the ball over most against msu and osu. Anyone else terribly surprised? We also have the worst turnover rates against those teams, as one would expect. 

Team - total turnovers - per game (sorted by Turnovers per game)

  • michigan state - 15 - 1.88
  • ohio state - 11 - 1.83
  • Wisconsin - 9 - 1.50
  • Northwestern - 5 - 1.25
  • Minnesota - 4 - 1.00
  • Indiana - 7 - 0.88
  • Penn State - 7 - 0.88
  • Maryland - 5 - 0.83
  • Rutgers - 5 - 0.63

We're averaging almost 2 turnover per game against msu and osu, our two biggest rivals. osu has only turned it over against us 3 times, or 0.5 times per game. That's a +8 margin for them. Hard to win games when it's that lopsided. 

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