Will NIL end/ severely limit decommitments and transfers?
Given all the recent talk about the state of the recruiting class and the need to flip already committed top prospects (particularly at QB), I’m wondering if that will still be possible.
Once a prospect initially commits they are likely to sign any offers that had been presented during the recruiting process. Each contract will have language specifying consequences for backing out of the commitment. The only ways I would assume they’ll be able to get out of them is if 1. another school offers more and is willing to pay the costs associated with the contract breach or 2. the prospects will get processed/ passed on the depth chart to the point where schools (and their downer groups) want to open up a roster spot for the next up and coming prospect.
What do you think? Is this the end of ‘crutin/ flips? Is National Signing day now irrelevant?
Probably. But don’t take my word for it. I’m only right half the time and wrong the other 90%.
Honest answer: I think some of these cases are going to end up in court and hopefully that’ll give some clarity to this uncertain and messy situation we have now.
Yogi Berra approves of this message 100% of the time, almost every time.
Willy nilly.
Right... and is why we should be glad, the approach to our NIL. Warde and Jim are surely doing it the right way, and it will be evident in the future...
oh stop it.... that kind of measured, thought out approach is generally frowned upon by many here..... We're going to be out of the top 25 in recruiting, we aren't NILing, fire the money cannon, fire warde, fire bakich..... the sky is falling..... mel is recruiting circles around us..
Username checks out
What’s to stop a team in need of a QB to call up JJ and offer $ to transfer? Not the NCAA.
JJ operates on a transformational realm - so I think we are good
I agree that he is the wrong example but the premise in general is absolute free agency.
Totally agree DD - someone who was highly recruited but ends up getting less playing time behind an upper classman will be happy to leave and get playing time AND more cash. It is free agency without the salary cap.
I actually think that THIS reality is why Coach Harbaugh talks about transformational vs transitional - you'll do fine financially at Michigan once you show up and prove you are a top talent. I'm not saying that perspective will win in the market; but it avoids the "$ for flame-out" culture.
The limiting factor to all out free agency will most likely be the language in some of the contracts. It was pointed out in another thread, in the current environment, some of these contracts will be very one-sided in favor of the entity offering the contract. A kid may well agree to hand over his NIL rights to the consortium/company/etc and those rights may stay even if the kid choses to attend or transfer to another school. This would basically force the kid to stay with the school if he wants to fully maximize his earning potential.
We are going to have hold-outs, aren't we?
Maybe, lawsuits and court cases I guarantee.
I'm guessing within the year there will be a handful of kids who have signed "bad" contracts which basically limits their ability to transfer. If the coaching staff or recruiting coordinators actively encouraged/pressured the kid to sign the contract, it will get really interesting. Even with indemnity clauses, some lawyer will try to shake down the AD for more money for their client and themselves.
This is why I am not too upset with how Michigan is handling this so far. There is so much which needs to be better understood and worked out before this system is working optimally for all parties involved.
Logged in just to upvote this. Well done.
I don't see how top teams will be able to have any kind of depth at QB. Once the starter is set, the rest will be looking to jump ship.
In theory, there can’t be any language specifying consequences for backing out of a commitment as NIL money isn’t supposed to be contingent upon the school that you go to.
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/NIL/NIL_QandA.pdf
Going to be very interesting to see what happens.
HAHAHAHAAAAA!!! You quoted NCAA 'rules'... LMAO!
Steinbrenner ain't paying Henson to stay in Ann Arbor, son.
There is no way for the NCAA to enforce that, but even in the imaginary world where the NCAA could, crafty lawyers can have residence clauses (IE- player must be a resident of the city/county the school is in) otherwise the contract is null and void. The payer could make the reasonable argument that the business that the player is promoting requires that the player be in the vicinity to use the business. There would be no way to tell a business that they are obligated to pay a spokesman for something they can no longer reasonably promote.
You are absolutely correct on the NCAA being unable to enforce this. The NCAA has issued guidelines for NIL, but the reality is that the courts have made it clear that the NCAA cannot regulate how the players earn money from NIL. The board has mocked the NCAA for not enforcing anything with regards to NIL, but the reality is that they have no legal right to do so and they are very aware of that.
Will be very interesting to see what happens, If the school claims to be following the rules, the athlete has every right to except that the money is mot contingent upon the school he goes to. I predict that things are likely to get very messy, very quickly. Would be shocked if multiple cases don’t end up in court.
This has nothing to do with the school. The company signing the deal is the one who would have it in the contract.
^ exactly ^
This is baffling. NIL absolutely is going to be tied to the school an athlete attends. For example, let’s say an Ann Arbor car dealership sponsors a Michigan player. That player transfers to Oregon. Under no same circumstances would that car dealership not have an out in the contract for that scenario as the player is no longer a valuable sponsor. This happens in the pros all the time. Any expectations otherwise are completely crazy and have no chance of making it through court.
in regards to the OP. I think it is a good question, but I would take it another step. When does the next Aidan Hutchinson get convinced to stay another year for a big NIL deal? Say he gets offered a guaranteed 15 million to stay one more year, far more than he would make his rookie season. Does he stay? When does this happen in college?
This is the argument for not signing NILs until after you sign with a school.
Didn’t Aiden Hutchinson have a $23 million signing bonus?
He had a big signing bonus and no doubt it would be a gamble to stay. He got 35 million guaranteed over 4 years, 23.15 is in a signing bonus. I admit it is unlikely they will get more for a year than they get in a guaranteed contract. But you can see a scenario where they get offered enough to make them gamble on themselves and stay.
Aidan is out of reach but Hassan Haskins could have made more money coming back vs going 4th round in the NFL. 4 year contact is not apples to apples with 1 year of NIL but this could be a difference maker for many college stars that aren't going to be first rounders.
Maybe for some players but also possible the NIL from the next team will just buy out the contract. Imagine someone who was a high 4 star recruit. Got paid to sign with School X. Turns out he’s a five star caliber player and torches everyone in his freshman year. School Y is one good whateverpositionheplays away from winning it all. Booster comes in, says he’ll give him enough to pay what he owes on his School X deal and double it at School y. It’s not an every kid thing but you can see how it could play out. Alternatively, imagine a 3 star kid goes to Boise State and is a gunslinger. B1G school needs a qb and can pay off his measley NIL deal. Turns those schools into a prep league for the super conferences…if you are an average player starting for a school with a decent NIL setup, however, you may think twice about transferring
"Got paid to sign with School X" is a violation of the NIL rules. What's allowed is, e.g., payment in return for promotional work for a car dealer. Without doing that work, the player doesn't receive payment.
Ain’t nobody enforcing the rules, boo-boo.
With contracts, courts will be adjudicating the four corners. Rules will be enforced. Which means agents. Question I have, if a savy kid signs at seventeen, takes a bones, on his eighteenth birthday, says sorry mate, was a minor then. Keeps the money, signs for another school. That would be awesome. B-law fantasy.
Could happen. Also I think these groups are going to be smart and structure things over the course of 3 years not as lump sums so that after year one you could transfer and move on without much penalty. Mitigates risk for them in case of injury or the guy turning out to suck
But can’t a player still technically do the work from another city or state in most cases? Either that or fly in to sign autographs, meet and greet, do a commercial, etc.
Jordan Addison… 3 star recruit, goes to Pitt, becomes best WR in college football.
Before entering portal, story breaks on ESPN that he might transfer to USC. Pitt and its backers do everything they can to raise NIL money. But at the 11th hour, name goes in the portal and within a day or two the transfer (to, shockingly, USC) is made official.
So can we get some rich donor to pay CJ Stroud $5 million to sit on his ass?
Like the Yankees did with Henson?
I have always believed that some schools paid recruits to not go to UM
I believe that sort of thing really started showing up when a certain coach who liked vests took a certain job.
better idea: get some rich donor to pay the next Hutch to put Stroud on his ass
Just wait until that check doesn’t come and see how fast players boycott games then transfer/declare.
I'm gonna be laughing when the schools that are paying for the best recruits can't afford to keep them.
Theoretically, how high could a bidding war for Reggie Bush go if he could've entered the transfer portal after he won the Heisman?
I have a feeling that the biggest NIL battles are not going to be for recruits, they're going to be for proven players checking their value in the portal. Talent acquisition is only one part of NIL. Retention will be the hard part once every star player hits the portal after every season. I don't believe that boosters will be able to pay everyone when the market catches up.
There needs to be real contracts. Players need a union. Conference/TV revenue needs to go to the players. Stop calling these dudes amateurs; they are professionals.
I hear you. Does Title IX allow schools be involved without activating this for all student athletes?
I suspect that the current Supreme Court would be higly skeptical of Title IX
So, what you're saying is that Michigan is taking the right approach in targeting the proven players and keeping them in place, as opposed to a free for all buying frenzy which as has just been clarified is illegal.
And, by the way, they aren't professionals.
90% of these kids best interest is in taking the free education.
Why do all the NIL supporters act as if everyone is a superstar?
This... it seems UM is banking on, and factoring in, the value of a UM education to attract at least some talented guys. How large that pool is will be interesting to see... but can't blame the university for not simply throwing out the notion that a UM education and college experience is valuable. Once you start to operate as it this has no value then it is simply a professional minor league.
It's a gamble and could hurt the program but maybe the calculus is that the school is likely to be further damaged by going all in on NIL bidding wars.
I do think paying proven players is going to be more important than paying incoming recruits. I also think relying on booster money isn't going to be sustainable. The costs are going to become too high.
I think scholarships are a great form of compensation and schools should continue to include them as a part of their compensation packages. I also think there's a ton of revenue that CFB conferences bring in through massive TV contacts and the players who create the value need to be given their fair share.
College players are putting in a ton of work to create a product that fans consume. They have historically been given a scholarship as compensation for their work, but now they are also being given NIL money to play their sport. I consider that a professional relationship.
I don't think NIL deals can be legally tied to a commitment. I'm curious how many players are going to sign the best deals and then transfer to the school they really wanted to go to. Quinn Ewars was the first I heard do this and he certainly won't be the last. Couldn't have happened to a nicer school than OSU.
Didn't Ewers get a bag at OSU? If anything I think kids will jump around more, a great player can make more in college than the average NFL player.
Yes, rumored to total 7 figures, left high school early, enrolled and practiced with the Buckeyes for a year then went to Texas.
GREAT!
I don't know about decommits, but the transfer portal will continue to be wild. They'll either upgrade their for better NIL opportunities (like the WR that went from Pitt to USC) or more playing time. Kids and their parents know that the NIL money is over when they run out of eligibility, so they'll need to see the field in hopes the NFL takes a chance on them.