What is the ceiling for this year's D?
There was some discussion within the Phil Steele prediction thread about how good (mhmm, good 'n terrible) the D could potentially be in 2011. Some selective data to consider:
- we all remember fondly, vividly and often the '08 cap one bowl where Henne shredded Florida's secondary. Florida finished 98th in pass defense that year. The following year they finished 20th. The difference? 2 of their studs (Black and Haden) were no longer freshman, and the freshman they did have (Janoris Jenkins) was a frosh all-american. Experience helps...but clearly they had more hyped talent in that defensive backfield relative to what Michigan will have this year.
A better comparison may be '09 vs. '10 Sparty. Finished 112th on '09 in pass defense (exactly where Michigan finished last year); in '10 they finished 60th. Their DB's were not highly touted coming out of HS.
I understand that this only looks at pass defense and ignores dozens of factors I can't even think of. What I do think is encouraging, is how a little experience in the defensive backfield can go a long way. Let's assume a couple things:
- Woolfolk & Floyd are basically 100% come August-ish
- Will Campbell/Q. Washington prove to be servicable this year
My long-winded question is then, what is the ceiling for this years D? Is it crazy to think we too can make the jump from 112th to the 60th range in pass defense based on experience alone?
I don't know about you, but I don't think J.T. Floyd is going to be our #2 CB behind Woolfolk.
Think you're right, Avery looks to be ready to take over the starting spot. Never hurts to have an upperclassmen, former starter for depth.
Also, IIRC Floyd is not doing much in terms of working out yet either. He suffered a pretty severe leg injury and may never be the same.
I really see Courtney Avery becoming the corner we need above JT
I agree... looking at footage from last season, it looked like although sometimes he gave up a big play, he was still in position to make it a more difficult catch. I expect him to surprise folks this year.
I also expect us to be better at getting pressure up front (Roh being used to his strengths, as well as overall better play by d-line and line backers.)
Better coaching will yield better results on defense. Mattison is a guru, and I am sure Hoke will also help in coaching up the DL. RVB/Martin/Will(hopefully)/Roh should be a stellar line in the B1G this year.
I'm not as sure it will be Avery as some of the other posters, but I've been beating this drum for a while. Floyd always seemed more of a serviceable backup, pushed into #1 CB by circumstances we all know and loathe. He may have eventually developed into more than that, but his injury is going to make that difficult now.
I agree with you that Michigan can make "the" leap from 112th to 60th in pass defensive this season in college football's FBS. A favorable schedule (in terms of location, opponents, and opponent's strength of schedule) will help make this happen along with the added experience of guys like Will Campbell and Courtney Avery. I think it's a good idea for you to add the selective data like you did to help some of the other humans understand that this is possible and probible (pobible) There have been bigger leaps in the past and YOU should be optimistic about the addition of Curt Mallory..
I think it is all going to come down to pressure by the front 4. If those front four, which I would have to say is our most talent group on D, can get pressure up the middle and outsides, then that makes the rest of the defense's jobs much easier. CB's stay in coverage shorter amounts of time, Safties don't bite on double moves because there isn't time for a double move, and LBs are able to hit the gaps easier. So if our DLine can be as good as I think it can, then I think we can finish anywhere from 30-50 ranked. But that is a big if. Also, a lot will depend on our offense as well. If our offense is not potent and cannot sustain drives, I think that hurts our defense substantially.
The ceiling is the top-rated defense in college football.
A more realistic scenario is that Michigan makes a similar improvement on defense from 2010 to 2011 that Illinois made from 2009 to 2010. It's definitely possible.
91st to 38th in overall D? If Michigan makes a similar leap (50th or so overall), man I would be ecstatic.
I think if we were basing it on experience alone I would have to say there would be little chance we could move up to 60 or better in terms of past defense this year. The thing is though, it isn't experience alone we are working with...we now have a great D coordinator and better position coaches who actually know and understand what they are coaching.
Someone else mentioned that the d line will impact the DB's because they won't have to cover receivers as long as they did last year if we can get more pressure. I think this is not only posible, but a given since last year we got next to zero pressure on the QB at all.
When we examine the situation this defense is in with so many returning players that admitedly had many issues last year, a defensive minded coaching staff with proven credentials and add the fact that we couldn't get much worse than where we were last year and I am certains all things are pointing in the right direction. I think we fall somewhere between 25-50 range in all defensive categroies this year when I take all the variable into account.
i agree, especially with the point about how little pressure we got on the QB last year. my most vivid memories of the defense last year are the countless times i would watch the opposing QB sitting in the pocket (or nonchalantly shifting about) and would just think to myself "we're toast."
no secondary on any level can cover an entire field for 5+ seconds. just think about how hard that is to do. pressure up the middle (i.e. MM), and/or off the edge (i.e. Roh) would enormously change the tone of the defense by making QBs force throws and make poor decisions. maybe the shift away from constant 3-man-rushes will help push the pass rush in the right direction (there really is nothing more frustrating than watching three dudes haplessly trying to get past five--through no fault of their own).
a great secondary may give your defense more latitude, but a great pass rush really changes the tide.
I had a post last year where I pointed out how teams make huge leaps every year in college and most of them were not dropping in a senior db who was the best db on the team and returning 9-10 starters. Go look at the college football stats page Brian has linked in the bottom left of the page. Go look at any team that you feel made a leap in a particular category and look at the previous years stats. 50 pt leaps are pretty common in both directions. Ole Miss fell off the map, MSU moved up huge, Ill did the same. Our offense made near 50pt jumps 2 years in a row.
With Mattison and Martin leading this d I'd be disappointed if we don't get into the 50's at a minimum this year. People forget how good Martin was before he got hurt.
We're winning this fucking conference. Mike Martin Big Ten defensive player of the year.
Raback it!
contributing factors:
- Mattison
- Woolfolk return
- Roh properly place
- Martin ankle healed
- much deeper secondary
- +1 Cam G. LB experience
- +1 Avery experience
- JT Floyd healthy
- Anderson/Brown spring game promise
- Jake Ryan
- +1 Carvin experience
- More Mattison
I know most arguments say "same players", but that's not entirely true. A lot of those missed tackles and players out of position are the product of scheme and coaching. Better secondary play will support Mattison's desire to be more aggressive. If we stay healthy, I think we can leap as high as top 50-60 D by year end.
I'd allso add a bullet for Demens. He was only a sophomore, playing for a coaching staff that didn't recognize that he was the best option, and then didn't seem to have a clue on how to scheme for LB play. I think he could be really good next year.
+1. The fact that Demens was buried on the depth chart behind Ezeh for much of the season indicates that coaching was every bit as much to blame for our struggles as inexperience.
Damn, I actually meant to do that. A "+1 Demens experience" at the very least.
He was making a helluvalotta plays last year after he got his chance.
but they are going to be learning a totally new system, although thank God, this time Mattison is at the reigns. I expect to see a defense that gets better and better throughout the year. We may see a pretty steep learning curve ... but, Hoke is a defense first, coach and these players are finally going to be learning fundamentals and technique from a real D coordinator ... with a proven track record in college and at the pro level.
I think most of us expect to see a defense in 2 - 3 years that rivals the great defenses of Michigan years of the past !
Go Blue !
We need to make a huge leap in total defense to be competitive. Last year, our defense as a whole sucked. If we vastly improve our pass defense, but our run defense remains abysmal, things will not improve a whole lot.
ZERO injuries, 14-0, zero yards, zero points, +300 turnover margin, and a few safeties just to pour it on a little
D-Line: Big Will is the key.
Baseline: Will Campbell and Q-Wash can form a kind of effective though stationary DT cycle, Mike Martin carries the brunt of offenses' attacks, RVB and Roh are both B+ level ends who make occasional drive-killing plays.
Over: Campbell becomes an effective starter, necessitating doubles on anything up the middle and pass protection, and the guys close on the depth chart (Ash, Talbott, Q-, Black) make such strides that the starters can take off a few extra series and be fresh for 3rd downs, etc. This releases Martin and Roh into single-teams where they are devastating and Michigan fields the best d-line in the Big Ten. RVB is a B+ level end who makes the occasional drive-killing play.
Under: Campbell can't get it together, and that last DT spot becomes a liability with various guys rotating in and Martin stuck at nose. On passing downs M goes small with Black and Roh on the ends and RVB with Martin inside and this ends up with quarterbacks dodging ends a lot -- sometimes with sacks.
Someone else can do this with the other two units.
Key-Courtney Avery
Baseline-Woolfolk and Avery are serviceable at Cornerback and the Kovacs and Carvin do what they do and play solid but have to give ground due to speed issues. They are a weakness but they allow the offense to have a chance at winning the games for us.
Upside-Misopogan's Dline proves to be terrifying with Black and Roh coming off the edges and Martin collapsing the pocket. This allows Michigan to play more aggressively and Woolfolk and Avery emerge as above average corners with Countess starting to look like a star in the making as a nickle/3rd cb. This masks the speed issues at safety as qb's are not afforded that much time and they can play downhill.
Downside-Woolfolk and Avery prove to be just mediocre db's and the pass rush is not stellar exposing our lack of speed and we get shredded in the middle of the field as our safeties play a mile off the ball protecting against getting beat deep.
This whole season boils down to the fact I think Martin, RVB, Roh , Black will be the best DL in the league and cause havoc on the passer. Martin created pressure against double teams by himself and Black's potential as a pass rusher is incredible. People get on him for screwing a bunch of crap up last year, but he shouldn't have even been out there. Playing DE as a freshmen is nuts ask C. Roh. These 2 are coming on and they will be great. If they don't come thru this defense will be bad again, but I don't think so. IF WC or QW can rotate in and clog the middle on 1st down I'll be happy, but I don't see them on the field much.
LB Corps: Cam Gordon is the key
Baseline: Cameron Gordon adjusts to his new role as the starting SAM, fierce competition from Jake Ryan brings out the best in him. Kenny Demens continues to grow into a leader at MIKE. Somebody steps up after winning the fall camp WILL battle-royale. (Probably Mike Jones, Marell Evans or JB Fitz?)
Over: Mattison's high hopes for Cam come to fruition and he forms a fearsome tandem with Demens. WILL Scenarios(1. Mike Jones comes back strong from his broken leg. 2. Marell Evans throws a Bobby Boucher tantrum after he visualizes each opponent as the Hampton coaches who didn't start him. 3. JB Fitz does something productive)
Under: Cam doesn't improve in pass coverage and opposing tight ends begin transforming into Kyle Rudolph. Kenny Demens plays out of control and becomes Mouton 2.0. 3. We end up moving Marvin Robinson or Furman to WILL due to sheer ineptitude from the three WILL candidates mentioned above.
i like your analysis, but I highly doubt a safety is moved to LB because either a) the coaches find a way to play Cam, Demens and Jake Ryan at once (putting Ryan or Cam at WILL) or someone like Antonio Poole plays the WILL. Poole is as big as Furman or Robinson, maybe bigger, and is an actual LB who is good at playing LB. Since I think he'll be our starting WILL after not too long anyway, he might step in and play well.
However, I don't think that will be necessary, since I'm sure we'll find three starters out of Demens, Gordon, Ryan, Evans, Jones and Fitzgerald. Maybe even Isaiah Bell or Brandin Hawthorne. There is enough talent in that group that whichever three win the jobs will be quality Big Ten starters.
I just put down the most nightmareish scenario I could think of for the "under" segment.
Giving up around 20+ points per game would be pretty good considering where they have been the last few years. I doubt they will achieve this staus in 2011, but it is a lofty goal. If they do get to the point of allowing less than 25 ppg then getting one TD per quarter will allow them to win most games. Obviously it's an average, but if they give up less than 25 ppg, I think they would win the vast majority of their games.
Reducing the number of TO will help both the offense and defense, plus less three-and-outs will help the D to the point where getting to the top 60 in the country in defense is achieveable this year. (See cfbstats.com for the nation scoring offenses and defenses).
between last years D and this years D is the L.O.S. We'll lose a body in the backfield but our pass defense will improve because of the improved pass rush. The qb's will be facing not only an unleashed Mike Martin, but Craig Roh will finally be able to use his natural ability as a DE. Roh could have a breakout year and qb's running for their lives will be a great help to our more experienced backfield this year. Cam Gordon and Jake Ryan will be major additions in the front 7 wherever they land. I like both of them in pass coverage situations.
To reach the 'ceiling' the D will need to handle a few key factors:
1. Transition
I don't think any of the impressive turnarounds noted occured during a regime change. The coaching staff appears strong, so maybe it won't be a major problem, but it's always an issue when you change schemes.
2. Injury
This is always a big deal but given the lack of proven depth it is particularly important that Martin, Van Bergen, Woolfolk are fully healthy.
3. Individual 'leaps'
Need a few younger players to improve from 'servicable' starter to something more. Some candidates to become impact players (or at least non-liabilities): Avery, C.Gordon, K.Demens, C.Roh, W.Campbell. If most of these guys become average Big10 starters, you can pair them with veterans (Martin, RVB, Kovacs, Woolfolk) to have 9 of 11 starters at a level that can be considered average for the Big 10, if not better.
Looking beyond the starters, T.Gordon, J.Black, Q.Washington, etc. - if these guys can rotate in without being massive weaknesses, the defense will benefit greatly.
4. Competantly filling the voids
FS and WLB are probably going to be a concern no matter what. The candiates are composed of either position-switches, under/oversized players, inexperienced players, unheralded recruits, or some combination of the above. There's no shortage of candiates though, so if anyone can step up to be more than an enormous liability, that will go a long way. Everyone has their pet candidate, be it Mike Jones, Marrell Evans, Carvin Johnson, or whoever else. Someone needs to step forward for the team to move forward.
I'm surprised GERG vs. GREG M wasn't a big discussion. I'm listening to this Iowa podcast right now, and there's a point where they just shake their heads over some of our alignments last year.
The fact is that our free safety is now a linebacker, and it looks like a previous linebacker (spur or whatever) is now going to our free safety. A guy who couldn't make it at nose tackle was moved to guard and is now moved to a 3-tech where the current coaches think he can play. And oh yeah, we had our rush end playing a linebacker last year, and not even like the Cam Gordon role this year. I would suggest that X-and-O defensive coaching is worth at least 20 spots in D rankings.
The assumption most people want to make is that nothing bad will happen. No injuries, flakeouts, transfers, drug busts, you name it. That's a huge assumption to make, and it's why the team has disappointed the last few years compared with expectations.
If we are so lucky, though, this team is ready to be average or better. They now know how to watch film! Whatever that means!
I don't assume that. I do, however, assume that we'll suffer about the same level of attrition as other programs. Do you expect only us to have injuries, arrests and such?
the key factor becomes depth. Not many people are arguing that Michigan's is superior to the rest of the conference because it's particularly young and inexperienced. But hey, at least we won't have to throw true freshman out there again (hopefully...)
One or two injuries at the right spots could be devastating this year. No one knows if Woolfolk or Floyd are going to be around 100%, but if one of them isn't ready to play, then guys without any real game experience are going to play a lot. The same goes for safety (again).
That said, Michigan is due for a healthy year, right?
Overall, having a competent staff should make things better no matter what. There's too much talent on the roster to be the 100+ rated defense (again) or let up a school record for points (again) and hopefully the staff can at least normalize the team's performance based on the players' talent level.
The ceiling for this defense, methinks, is about average or slightly above average for I-A. So that would be the Penn State from last year range.
What about Countess or Hollowell making an impact...anyone see them in the starting group?
They better be special if they're forced to play. I'm sick of Freshmen starters.
Don't forget who the asst DC was on that Florida defense.
Stop the run, period. This is the most important thing a defense can do in order to improve in all other areas statistically. If you put the opposing offense in obvious passing downs this will improve our sacks, turnovers, and pass defense. Also eliminates big plays because it takes play action out of the equation. Our Safety play will dictate how much pressure Mattison can dial up.
1. Can we stop the run
2. Safety play
How many wins are people thinking we wil lget this year, I could see us running the table with osu in their stage right now. if we would have had a half decent defense last year, we would have had a few more wins. I'm saying it now, we go 13-0. May not be the NC game but itd be atleast the rose bowl
A ceiling? I don't think we can hope for more than a shut out in every game.
No one will get past the Big Blue Line. That is all.
IMO the defense will finish up the season ranked between 50-60 overall in the NCAA...which will be a huge improvement and lead to a couple more wins and more competitive team overall. Expect an improvement from giving up 35+ down to the mid 20s or so
In a few years I'm sure we will be talking about "Mattison's Maulers". But, this next year we will still have a young group of DBs.
A big advantage from last year is that the defense spent so much time on the field, then got the extra 15 practices for the bowl game. That makes for nearly two years of experience compared to what they would have gotten on a strong defensive team.
I agree with those who think we will finish ranked about 60th in overall defense, maybe better.
Then next season, watch out. "Mattison's Maulers" will be running wild on opponents.
It depends on the DL IMO. Luckily, we've got some good players there. If Roh continues to improve, Van Bergen and Martin play like they're capable, and Campbell becomes the monster we're hoping for - that will take care of alot of problems. Contributions from Black and Washington would go a long way too. We still wouldn't be great, but we could be decent if the line plays well.
If the defense gets somewhere into the middle, it will be an achievement. Anything better is a major bonus.
This is the first time in a long time, since 2008, UM will experience viable depth on that side of the ball, and many of the kids recruited in the past three years, more specifically last two, are extremely great athletes. If, and I think Mattison can motivate these kids, act as sponges between now and opening game, we'll see a good defense that could actually turn the corner this season.
You mention Washington and Will. Don't forget Black and Ash. Black is going to be a big time defender for us. He showed a lot as a true freshman. If nothing else, the other three could prove to be immovable objects, requiring double teams, but I'm getting a bit ahead of myself.
Along w.Jibreel, consider the following names- and I'm missing quite a few, I'm certain- Woolfok back in fold, Carvin J., Demens, Fitz, M. Rob, C. Gordon, T. Gordon, C. Roh and possibly the best athlete on the team, Furman. We have some players on that side of the ball for the first time in a long time, and then there's also Ryan who might contribute more than expected in his first year.
We have some pieces in place and a proven coordinator w/good to excellent position coaches. I think we surprise this year. I didn't mention some of the obvious players because they're proven and actually add to my point, well, possibly hope at this time. No one can predict exactly when a unit will mature and begin playing up to potential. But this much I do know. I know M. Rob, C. Gordon and all our returning DL are going to be more than adequate. If we get some help from some of these excellent underclassmen like M. Rob and Furman, who I believe is going to become truly great, we'll experience the type of progress ND experienced last season and by season's end we will trot out a confident, capable D unit that will only get better in the next few seasons.
Let's assume that Floyd is healthy and he is not the #2 corner. That, IMO, would mean that someone else has vaulted himself above him and that would be a good thing. If he is our 3rd corner coming in against multiple reciever sets that we are bound to see , I like what he has to offer. If he or Troy are not ready this year, we are in a world of hurt from jump but will get better as the season goes on.