Week 5 Around the B1G
I figured it'd be interesting to discuss the happenings around the B1G this week aside from Michigan, cokegate, etc.
Surprised by anybody so far? Nebraska and Penn State are still undefeated. I expect them to keep that going against Illinois and NW, respectively.
Can OSU beat Cinci at home?
Is Indiana a legit threat in the B1G? They take on Maryland this week.
How good/bad will Iowa look against Purdue?
Overall, who are the favorites for the B1G? I still think MSU in the east, but the west is probably Wisconsin?
Discuss. Or don't.
[ED-S: Combining with GoWings2008's similar thread. Here's what he said:]
In response to some positive feedback from this last week, I'm repeating the practice of some news from around the conference, plus one story that I thought was humorous. So, without further ado...
Penn State is requesting a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit filed by one of JoPa’s sons and another assistant coach for being fired a year ago. The plaintiffs feel they were unjustly tied to the way the Sandusky scandal was handled. Penn State says that their termination had nothing to do with the Sandusky issue. Link: http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11579989/penn-state-wants-judge-dismiss-jay-paterno-lawsuit
A University of Cincinnati professor, Steve Fuller, tweeted/trolled any osu fans who may be unlucky enough to enrolled in one of his classes. Seems as though anyone caught wearing any ohio state gear in his class will receive a failing grade in the course. I like this guy already. Link: http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/cincinnati-bearcats-professor-ohio-state-gear-students-fail-cfb-am-092414
And now for the funny, although not a story from the conference. Florida State brought a group of recruits in last week for a visit, and served a meal…which I hope did not include any cream cheese. However on the menu…crab legs. Uhhh, really? Is this some sort of bad joke? “A Priest, a Rabbi and a Preacher all walk into a bar…the bartender says, ‘What, is this some sort of joke?’” Link: http://www.foxsports.com/buzzer/video/c-mon-florida-state-s-football-team-serves-crab-legs-to-recruits-092414
September 24th, 2014 at 10:47 PM ^
You can schedule an additional game if it's to travel to Hawai'i for whatever reason.
September 24th, 2014 at 10:50 PM ^
I assume OSU didn't have a bye week that year? They certainly didn't play Hawaii after the Michigan game.
And yeah, I really don't know how that worked (or works), either. I haven't heard of any team playing that many games since then.
September 24th, 2014 at 11:54 PM ^
September 24th, 2014 at 11:51 PM ^
September 25th, 2014 at 2:47 PM ^
Appreciate the research.
September 24th, 2014 at 10:26 PM ^
Sadly, Michigan-Minnesota is pretty much the storyline of the week in the Big Ten. The media are salivating at the idea of Michigan imploding and Hoke on the hot seat.* Maryland-Indiana is pretty much the only other intriguing one. Everything else is either good teams who will win handily, or mediocre teams who will win handily because their opponents are awful.
*This is not a RCMB-esque "The meejia is out 2 scroo us!!11!!!1!!!111!!!" statement, it's simply fact that the media love a good implosion and hot seat at any high-profile program.
September 25th, 2014 at 7:01 AM ^
TeamRankings is actually giving the edge (mild confidence on the pick) to Indiana in this one, but not by all that much - their line only favors Indiana by 4.5 points. By contrast, the same site is favoring Ohio State over Cincinnati by 15.5 and that's a high confidence pick in their algorithm. If I was going to play the numbers, I would tend to agree with you - the Indiana game might be the most amusing matchup among the games mentioned in the OP.
September 24th, 2014 at 10:52 PM ^
ridiculously one-dimensional offense, the game being at home...I mean, this is as close as you can get to a 'must-win in September', right?
September 24th, 2014 at 11:24 PM ^
September 25th, 2014 at 1:40 AM ^
That mastermind Jerry Kill.
September 24th, 2014 at 11:11 PM ^
I won't make any predictions, but hopefully this lights a fire under their asses and the road back up begins. Then again, I said that last week too. And after the Akron game. And the UConn game. And the MSU game last year. Honestly, I really don't know what to believe anymore.
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September 24th, 2014 at 11:32 PM ^
They must be high off their asses, then. The line just moved again. Michigan by 11 now.
minnesota has shown so far that they can only run the football.
Michigan has held every opponent but Appalachian State to under-100 rushing yards. That includes a team with a highly touted offense and one who is currently ranked #8.
September 24th, 2014 at 11:56 PM ^
From Sam Webb I think Shane is going to start. So the rest of the year (if this is true) depends on a lot on how much Shane improves. A year ago at this time Maxwell was benched at MSU (5th year senior) and in went Cook. He was horrid at first. Now a year later he is a 1st round draft pick (puke). Can Shane do that? I have no idea - it is not common for that to happen.
But assuming Shane is just a struggling SO Qb and does not perform miracles the quandry UM will face all year is any team capable of putting up even 28 pts on UM basically kills us. Even with a good defense a lot of teams can put up 28 pts on us, especially if we help with turnovers. We play VERY slow on offense, so we cannot come back from any deficit of like 10+. That's horrible to think about.
In 2013 I thought most games we could at least explode a few times due to Devin. But that proved very wrong versus Northwestern, Nebraska, and Iowa. So far all I have seen vs ND and Utah is the same offense we rolled out versus Iowa and Northwestern last year. Which is a frightening thing to see when teams like Indiana, MSU can score 35+ on us... and teams like Maryland, OSU, and PSU can score 28ish. (Maryland can't run so they won't bother, they will just employ the ND offense strategy on us all game - same for PSU) Those 5 games now all scare me due to the fact our offensive ineptitude does not allow us to even comprehend scoring 4 TDs on anyone who is not in the MAC or FCS.
That leaves Minnesota, Rutgers, and Northwestern as teams we can score on and our defense can hold down below 20. And Rutgers will be on the road in a hostile environment with a psyched out crowd with Brady Hoke coaching a road team. So that's a toss up.
So that leaves Minnesota and Northwestern. So probability for me is 2-6 Big 10 as the floor and 5-3 as the ceiling with 3-5 a real reality. Unless Shane has Cook like growth in the next 8 weeks.
September 25th, 2014 at 12:38 AM ^
Well...calling this a big time debbie downer...but if that's your thing okay
September 25th, 2014 at 1:01 AM ^
I could be a Debbie Downer but when most were dimssing Golson 3 weeks ago due to his 2nd game of his career vs UM and a up and down year in 2012 I said he was exactly the type of mobile QB that destroyed UM for 20 years; dismissing Golson for 2012 in 2014 would be like saying Braxton Miller sucks in 2013 because he did in 2011 (his first year starting). Recieved my downvotes for that "crazy theory". Golson didnt even have to run in that game to kill us; he just did it with his arm. I expected a high scoring affair like 30-27 so I only got that half correct; had no idea UM offense would die esp after Gardner looked fine vs App State.
A week ago at this time I wrote in the prediction thread Utah would win due to matchups and how they play (their DL blitzes a lot and causes pressure which Devin does not handle well and they could score through the air) - again in a high scoring affair with similar score to the ND prediction. I think I had 31-27 Utah. Got that half wrong again, thanks to UM offense.
So at this point it is difficult for me to get behind the UM offense and be "rah rah" until evidence appears otherwise. Maybe Shane starts and improves a lot this year. If he does, the offense can look viable and things can change. If he struggles like most 1st year QBs - hard to get too giddy. Devin looks like he is going to be Devin, which is not even 2013 Devin. if it hasnt been fixed in 7 months of off season its not going to get fixed in the next 8 weeks. Unfortunately.
Last year I was delighted after ND, confused after Akron, worried after UConn, and threw in the towel after PSU while many here were saying "we can still go 6-2!" So I was labeled a debbie downer.
Look the defense paired with even a solid offense could go 6-2 in the conference slate. Our offense cannot even get into the red zone against half decent teams. Our special teams screws up each week - our FG kicking is not reliable. I just saw a team with 2 four stars on it from Utah march in here and look well coached and beat us soundly. They will probably finish in 8th in the Pac 12.
If its any consolitation I have us winning this week. But I stopped with my "high scoring affair!" - I went with 20-13 in the prediction thread.
The team doesnt deserve the benefit of the doubt until it has proven it earned it. Debbie downer or not.
September 25th, 2014 at 1:36 AM ^
I'm essentially where you're at. My cliff notes version goes something like this, if Hoke opts for Gardner, 7+ wins can - and most likely will - happen (along with some post-season play)...If it's Morris, I have a hard time seeing bowl elgibility.
Considering the rather precarous position Hoke and his staff finds itself in, one would think they're going to do whatever they can to maximize results. I'm not sure how that happens with Morris under center for 2014. I can see the argument for prepping him for 2015, but let's be frank here - if the results are what's being speculated here and above, there's virtually no chance Hoke has 2015 in the cards.
September 25th, 2014 at 1:53 AM ^
2013 ND, 2013 Minny, 2013 Indiana, 2013 OSU form is possible.
Shane going from what we've seen to servicable to good is also possible (and hopefully likely given enough time), but I'd be very worried that we lose the next four if we go that route. (Minny, @Rutgers, PSU, @MSU.)
Then we're sitting at 0-4 / 2-6 with IU, @NW, Md, and @OSU left.
September 25th, 2014 at 7:44 AM ^
I agree that starting Morris seems like a very bad move for UM. I think the best option would be to continue to start Gardner but let him play "backyard football" which is what he seems to do best. Utilize his athleticism and have him run the ball 12-15 times per game via QB iso's, QB draws, zone-read plays and run-pass option rollouts. It's possible he will get injured doing that but then they would just put Morris in like they are thinking about doing anyway.
September 25th, 2014 at 6:23 AM ^
That's the crucial takeaway from the last 1+ seasons. Unfortunately, we've shown we're more liable to stink things up than we are to look like a solid team.
September 24th, 2014 at 11:43 PM ^
General thoughts:
- Maryland and Rutgers received very difficult crossovers, which benefited Wisconsin and Iowa - the west front runners avoid teams like MSU, OSU, UM* (well in theory that is something good to avoid), etc so they have the 2 easiest schedules in the West.
- Iowa did their normal choke job v ISU but at least beat Pittsburgh on the road. At ths point I consider any Big 10 team winning on the road against even a mediocre team an accomplishment. So Iowa is gonna be Iowa - incredibly boring, with a solid DL and OL, a challenged QB, a decent run game and just Ferentz along.
- Wisconsin is Wisconsin - despite losing a ton of their front 7, they have a good enough team to be "Big 10 good". That is different from actually good. The LSU loss actually looks worse after Miss State went into LSU and beat em. I didnt look at their QB stats from last few weeks but at this point I presume Wisconsin-Nebraska will be for the west.
- Speaking of... Nebraska is not that good. They almost lost to McNeese St and the Miami team they beat is a lot like Michigan now. Just an old brand with a tired flawed product on the actual field. They are getting more credit then they deserve for that win IMO. I think they returned only 3 of 11 starters on defense and had some injuries even to that group so basically its Randy Gregory and a bunch of faux blackshirts who will get exposed by MSU. Abdullah is awesome but Tommy armstrong is a poor man's Denard. That said they DO play MSU well for some odd reason. Nebraska is a high variance offense like UM in 2012 where one week it can score 45 and the next 13.
- If Missouri was in the Big 12 we'd just laugh that Indiana beat them. But due to that season last year in the SEC it is interesting at least. Need more data on what Missouri does over the next 6 weeks but see comment about Iowa - any Big 10 team that goes on the road and beats a half alive opponent is a good win nowadays I give kudos. Indiana's Tevin Coleman is a beast. If they can ever get a defense over there they will be a difficult out.
- Like others I see OSU as flawed due to the OL and QB, and i still dont believe in their back 7 on defense. But Cincy doesnt play defense either.
- PSU is Michigan's offense of 2013 with a bit better defense than we had in 2013. Their win vs Rutgers required 5 INT from Gary Nova - I expect them to get exposed, especially in road games (not against us, I mean against real teams). I think we were 5-1 to begin last year as well so PSU wont fall quite as badly as we did last year as they have more NFL players on that defense than we did but I expect some stumbles.
- Maryland is all pass offense and no run offfense. And a mediocre defense.
- Minnesota is all rush offense and no pass offense. And a mediocre defense.
- Michigan is no offense. And an above average defense struggling with injuries that could be "very good" (not elite) later in the year.
- Rutgers without their RB is now the Gary Nova show. Not a good show to be. BUT I do think their defense will surprise some people (including us) unless PSU's OL is just that awful. Their DL was very active and scared me when I saw PSU OL and think its not much different than UM's OL.
- Northwestern I said a few weeks ago might only win 4 games all year. Other than Minnesota this is the only other team I see as a "sure win" for us. Northwestern could be 2-8, entering their last 2 games vs Illinois and Purdue.
- Illinois I have not been following since we dont play them but apparently they got a nice QB transfer in... but its still Illinois.
- Purdue sucks. But played Notre Dame closer than us. SIGH.
September 24th, 2014 at 11:57 PM ^
is Ameer Abdullah. He's one of the best back in the country and a player that will keep them in the game. I think he's the best back in B1G. Yes, even over Melvin Gordon.
September 25th, 2014 at 12:53 AM ^
September 25th, 2014 at 12:17 AM ^
As with almost any prognostication most of this is wrong, but you never know that until later.
The word count is impressive.
September 25th, 2014 at 12:58 AM ^
Well those are the views today after 4 weeks. Of coursein 4 weeks they could all be wrong or half wrong or all correct ;) We shall see.
September 25th, 2014 at 1:57 AM ^
after losing its DE in the first half. (Wiscy still held up w/ the loss of just the DE.)
I haven't heard anything since as I don't look for Wiscy info, but it seemed like those were two season-ending injuries.
September 25th, 2014 at 2:56 PM ^
Miss State/LSU, I'm not really sure LSU is very good. They could be heading for 4 or 5 SEC losses with their schedule.
September 25th, 2014 at 11:12 AM ^
Wisky was actually pounding LSU. They were up 24-7 at one point. Not sure what happened to the offense but Wisky lost two of their interior defensive lineman to injury in the game against LSU. The announcers talked about how little depth Wisky had at that position and sure enough as the game wore on Wisky's dline fell apart.
With the Badgers schedule, a 10 win season isn't far fetched.
September 24th, 2014 at 11:45 PM ^
Neither Penn State nor Nebraska has faced any decent competition yet this year, so their records reflect what any mediocre Big Ten should have done. Now they could turn out to be very good by the end of the season, but there's no indication of that so far.
September 24th, 2014 at 11:56 PM ^
Maybe this game is exactly what Devin needs. Afterall, Minesota was the game where he had his breakout performance.
Please let Devin reach even 80% of his potential and I'll be a happy man.
September 25th, 2014 at 12:06 AM ^
September 25th, 2014 at 1:34 AM ^
I'm not sure how, because I don't get over losses...but I've moved on from Utah.
I'm admittedly blinded by fandom and I somehow still have hope for this season, Hoke, this team.
I don't know why, I know I'm out on this limb all by myself. But I'm just not ready to give up. And I don't mean on the program or even the players...I know many of you would never do either of those. But I mean on a successful year.
Usually I'm the biggest realist on MGoBlog, but for some reason I just have this optimism that we're going to turn this thing around and reel off some W's, including MSU. I have this feeling the tide is going to change for this program and there will be a lot of fighting and animosity towards the folks who jumped ship.
I'm could be wrong, hell, I'm probably wrong. I'm calling myself an idiot for still believing...but I still do. I hit record on my DVR earlier tonight and I was genuinely excited to watch this team play. No reason why, must've been huffing the MGoPaint.
I'm going to be rooting harder than I ever have...if I'm right, it'll be this game that changes everything.
If I'm wrong, I'll just be numb...because I've given all of the negative emotion I can possibly give. If I'm wrong, I'll probably just turn my attention elsewhere and only focus on M-Football on Saturday's. But I've got a weird hope that this thing is not over.
Go BLUE!
September 25th, 2014 at 8:33 AM ^
You're not alone, you're not an idiot for supporting your team. If they lose all the rest of the games I will be there next fall. Naturally I hope they don't of course. I don't like losses either but for the first time I feel like wins are not everything.
It would be nice to see development as the season progresses.
And we will renew our season tickets, and we will have good seats for a pretty amazing home schedule next year.
GO BLUE...always
September 25th, 2014 at 9:06 AM ^
Definitely frustrating at times, but it's not like I'm switching allegiances because the football team is not good. Didn't ditch BBall. (miss the $1 +a can of soup games, though) Also, football Saturdays mean a lot more to my family than just football.
September 25th, 2014 at 8:48 AM ^
you echo my sentiments.
September 25th, 2014 at 9:10 AM ^
I think we see a michigan season much like 2008 where we struggle to compete in games with teams we'd normally beat. Like ten years ago normally.
I don't think we've seen the tip of the ice berg as far as pain and embarrassment go. At some point there will be a game with less than a hundred thousand. We will get smashed in sickening form by rivals and mocked. Our coach will continue to act like an idiot at press conferences. The AD will stay true to his arrogant , delusions. Etc, etc...
September 25th, 2014 at 9:59 AM ^
than getting "smashed in sickening form" is a pleasant surprise. I see what you've done there, allintime! Lowered your expectations. Good strategy.
September 25th, 2014 at 9:40 AM ^
in the worst way, because I still think the Nuss hire was great, but it takes more than two months to get an offense buzzing properly. Devin is an awesome athlete but I think we know exactly what he is as a QB overall.
That's why I want to see Morris with first team reps and a game plan specific to his strengths. With our OL, we need quick darts + YAC, and we have the receivers to do this...I just think Devin is a tad too indecisive.
So yeah, I still think the offense makes gains from here. We know Nuss can coach tempo (apparently they go quckly in practice at times), but it's too soon to go ludicrous speed...guys are still getting the base play execution down. The D is at least solid, but needs to generate far more turnovers.
When Hoke came here, I liked him instantly and wanted him to succeed (and not just for my selfish fandom). That is still true. If the O improves and we finish strong, we could set up nicely for next year. Please stay behind this team...Minnesota is going to be a big win for us, yeah I said it, and it could give the team a much needed boost.
September 25th, 2014 at 9:55 AM ^