Peppers at 10, which seems low.
W247: MBB stronger at center with Donnal
Way to completely ignore defense, 24/7 writer. The thing that was very obvious to everyone who watched us last year is that without Morgan in at center, we were completely discombobulated defending our basket. The Big Ten title game is the most obvious example, but it was fairly clear all year. Particularly without McGary. That's where we're going to miss him, and while Donnal may be fine offensively, it's where I'm terrified. The only way I think we could replace that aspect with a freshman is if he were a true rim protector. Which is not Donnal's rep.
We're probably going to need dramatic improvement defending on the perimeter from Caris/Irvin/Walton to make up for J-Mo's experience and leadership on that end.
Beilein has a no-foul defensive strategy. It looks bad, frequently, but in the end it keeps opponents off the line and it keeps us out of foul trouble. In return he generates absurd offensive efficiency. I think the focus on how bad our defense looks at times in general is misguided. I agree JM was probably our best defensive player last year. But this system is predicated on not fouling, and yes it will give up some easy hoops, and it seems to work damn well anyway. I'm not terrified about what our defense will bring next year at all, personally. We've seen that elite defense is not a prerequisite to win conference titles and make Final Fours with coach B around.
and DJ wilson among others will provide more inside presence on D than J Mo. But I really liked J Mo.
Seriously? Only if you elevate shot-blocking over everything else on D. Besides probably being our best man-on defender, Jordan hedged the ball screen/point guard as good as anyone in the country. And he quaterbacked the defense--constantly communicating. Compare it with our defense when he was out.
I agree with the poster who pointed out that Beilein's system doesn't necessarily require us to be a lockdown defensive team---but we will definitely not be as strong defensively down low as last year.
Burke were both poor defenders. Walton, Irvin and Caris should be the best group of perimeter defenders Michigan has had in some time.
rebounding guards we have seen in some time. He seems to get great position and read on the ball.
Not sure why people knock Burke's defense. He was not a liability. If not a lockdown guy, he could hold his own in man-to-man D. His long wingspan helped him get a lot of strips and blocks (he was about the best shotblocking 6-footer I've ever seen). We struggled a lot more last year against dribble penetration than we did in Burke's two years.
Now, Stauskas, yeah, he was bad at that end of the floor.
I expect a lot of early foul trouble on Donnal just because young bigs who are not named Julius Randle get into foul trouble. I think we'll be fine on offense as a general rule because... Beilein. I feel we will struggle on the interior defense as our bigs are not going to be super athletic and that is how you overcome being very young. See what UK could do - you could get to the lane versus them but then they had multiple trees to swat your shot. See how they neutralized Kaminksy. Our bigs are not that type and even Beilein said after UK they play above the rim and we don't. We just don't have that type of player - Doyle nor Donnal are that. Wilson is probably the only guy on the roster who is at that size.
And yes our interior defense was quite bad last year and no one can dispute it. Our perimeter defense also sucked many times but I am hoping Irvin Caris and Walton can improve that this year. Nik was not a great defender and GR3 was here or there. We'll see.
I expect a lot of very high scoring games where we score and the other team immediately comes down the floor and scores right back causing frustration. That is just how young teams are on defense - Beilein had many quotes about this. Guys like Wilson are athletic but I dont know how big his role will be and he is still a twig - he is not going to face up a 240 lb Big 10 center.
First off, our defense has been poor even with Morgan. Second, your point is one of the reasons why I hope we show more 1-3-1 this year. DJ Wilson is supposed to be a rim protector. If people get past our guards or Donnal, it would be nice to have Wilson rotate over to swat it.
levert may be the perfect defender up top for the 1-3-1.
As should be clear by now, Beilein isn't really a hardcore 1-3-1 advocate. He's had the personnel to run it the past few years, but opted to use it sparingly or, this past year, as a change of pace/look, particularly coming out of time-outs. I suspect he used it more often at WVU because he simply didn't have the kind of athletes he does now (to play man).
I wouldn't be surprised if we used it a little more this year--not because Beilein prefers it, but because we will have too many holes on man D, particularly down low---and it helps Spike and, of course, Caris is a perfect fit on top.
Given his choice, Beilein will opt for man-to-man----as he should.
Actually, the 1-3-1 isn't necessarily something you want to run with an inexperienced team. It takes time for players to grasp their responsibilities and learn to work with their teammates in it. I think we'll probably still be mostly a man/2-3 team, with maybe a bit of 1-3-1 sprinkled in later in the season.
No doubt Donnal will be on upgrade on offense, but I think JMo was underrated as far as his ability to neutralize guys. He bodied up well and kept things in control down low. It was never flashy with monstrous blocks, but he kept things in control. I'm afraid we'll see a lot of Donnal getting beat up down low. He's just not a very big guy, I foresee him getting backed down regularly
I'll believe it when I see it.
Morgan's impact many times didn't show up in a stat sheet. I mean look at his last memorable play, it was a charge drawn against Stokes from Tennessee.
But even more than that...THIS (1:17:42 mark)
...THAT play is more Jordan Morgan than anything else. No one will remember it 5 years from now. But that play won the game just as much as Trey Burke's shot did. If Morgan isn't there, in position, to play GREAT defense AND get the rebound. We lose. It's really that simple. A layup there and the game is over.
That is Jordan Morgan in a nutshell.
I don't care about star ratings. Jordan Kovacs was a walk-on and we haven't replaced him since the day he left campus.
I have no doubt Donnal will be a more skilled offensive player. What I worry about is..
1. Can he play defense? Because J-Mo has been our best defender for 3 years. We were AWFUL on defense without him, we had to try and outscore everyone.
2. Is he tough? Because J-Mo has been our toughest player for 5 years...and we still saw what UK did to us, they just bullied us.
3. Is he a leader? Because LeVert is naturally quiet, Walton and Irvin are still learning, and we have to have someone on the back line to bark out instructions and get people in position. No one has been better than J-Mo at this.
...so sure he may have more 15 or 20 point games than J-Mo ever had...but that may not mean wins if we don't get the other stuff too.
I'm not knocking Donnal, I'm very excited about him. But Jordan Morgan was the most underrated player in the B1G last year.
I spend yet another 20 minutes watching the end of that game. I swear with each viewing Trey's shot gets longer. I'll be checking to see if his feet were in bounds soon. You're right about Jordan, the intangibles he brought to the table - senior leadership, 'muscle presence' - are things the underclassmen are not going to be able to bring to the table in their first year of playing in the B1G. Still, I'm confident we will have new players stepping up and new reasons to root for team #(insert number here).
Agree with mostly everything you said, but in regards to the UK game, so much of being bullied by them was an inability to keep their perimeter players in front of us on the defensive end. When UK's perimeter players blew past our defenders that requires Morgan or someone else to come over and defend. That allowed several UK forwards to have wide open dunk or put back attempts as the person guarding them was forced to rotate. It was a problem all year long.
Hopefully defensive improvements from Caris, Irvin, and Walton on the perimeter will help keep more of the opposing team's perimeter players in front of them. That would help mitigate the defensive drop-off at the position. However, as you are apt to point out, Morgan was running the defense from his position, which Donnal will probably not be able to do this year. Might make it tougher for Caris, Irvin, and Walton to handle switches and the like. I guess we will see how it plays out. Morgan is a major loss. Hopefully Donnal can fill the void.
You are 100% right, but I was referring to Randle catching the ball above the free throw line, lowering his head and just overpowering his way to the basket.
That had nothing to do with the perimeter players. That was just a Barkley-esqe PF being a Barkley-esqe PF and the refs chosing to swallow their whistles and allow it to happen.
Gotcha. Yeah Randle is a ridiculous player and athletic specimen. He was definitely bulling his way right to the basket. Going right through GRIII or around any of our bigger players we tried to match up with him.
Agreed. I love Morgan but lets be realistic - he blossomed in the 2nd half of last year. Remember Morford? Morgan was not the same guy he was the last half of the year as he was 1.5 years ago or 2.5 years ago. Remember he was benched in one of those NCAA games previous years.
So yes I am 100% in agreement people here won't miss Morgan until we see this year's team - he did a lot of things that you don't notice until a guy is gone. He was easily our best defender interior 2nd half last year but that was not the same JMo who was around 18 to 36 months ago.
I feel we are just going to be more of a run and gun game and those of us who like defense (hand raised) on a bball court are going to be frustrated with this team at times. I was very frustrated in the whole BTT how easily teams scored on us - our perimeter defense sucked.
was a great team player in many ways that did not show up in the stats no doubt. My guess is Donnal has gained enough strength to body guys in the post and keep them off the blocks. I truly believe his practice performance influenced Horford's decision to leave. This is really a shame because we could have used Horford's Senior leadership and energy off the bench.
JMo was a fifth year senior last year. He played with a confidence that he'd never shown before. His stats were better his first year on the court, yes, but he wasn't as valuable as he was last year (it's also not an apples to apples comparison, because his stats came from DMo finding him on pick-and-rolls in a way no other Michigan PG ever did again).
There is reason to be excited by Donnal. But it's a lot to ask that he outpace Michigan's defensive captain, a guy who played in four straight NCAA tournaments and who won two Big Ten titles.
I just checked ESPN Michigan Men's basketball roster and Jordan will be back for a SIXTH season!
Aaron Craft is back for a 10th season.
jess settles and robbie hummel also get another year?
After sitting out the last couple of games, he got more minutes tonight and used them well. A couple nice dunks should make the highlight film, 5 out of 6 shooting, and the night's coach (one of the Wolves ass'ts, who looks like a former player) was cheering him on and patting him on the back. Nice.
Semi OT: Robinson III also had a very good night, finally getting one of his high-flying dunks off a nice pass from the Wolves' first round pick, doing better at the foul line and a couple 3-pt shots falling. Looked much more comfortable tonight and his shots looked smooth. 17 points, a few rebounds, an assist and a steal, and no turnovers.
and was struck by him completely ignoring the impact of D-Mo to J-Mo. J-Mo had great production as a redshirt freshman because Darius was 6-4 and would hit him on the PnR all the time. Derrick Walton, though still very efficient on the PnR, does not have the height of Darius, so I wouldn't expect the same production from Mark Donnal his freshman year if only because of that. I still have high hopes for him as a player overall though.
Donnal can pop on PnR and attack closeouts, plus shoots 3s off catch and shoots. I see 10 ppg and poorus rebounding and average man post defense with no rim protection from him.
which Morgan couldn't. It will depend on how effective the people that are running the screen action with him are.
Agreed. It was interesting that Beilein said he was considering adding an above the rim player but in the 2015 class the 2 guys who could be that didnt really appreciate us, and I dont see such a player in the 16 class.
I know Beilein wants 5 shooters on the floor to make this offense unstoppable but generally your 4th and 5th man are not going to get a lot of touches. I'd like us to have a Dennis Rodman type somewhere in the rotation who is limited offensively but is a ridiculous athlete and someone you dont want to go inside in on. Even if he plays 14 minutes a nite he is the type of guy you can throw in at the end of tight games on defensive timeouts and its an asset. I think the lack of an athletic big man (I miss you Mitch) is the one thing that right now is lacking in the program.
Anyone think that we may see UM deploy the 1-3-1 more frequently this year?
I'd like to see us attempt something more radical on defense this year to compensate for the undoubted lack of rebounding. Perhaps a half-court press, Louisville-style?
That's something that has to be practiced over and over and your entire team has to be able to do it to some extent.
Spike Albrecht is quick, but he's not pressing anyone. I don't even know if Caris is pressing anyone because he's not the biggest guy in the world. Max B certainly isn't pressing anyone and neither is Doyle.
We could roll out 5-6-7 guys who'd fit the bill, but that would be about it.
Also Beilein has predicated his style on not fouling. Louisville doesn't do that. They roll 10 deep and can survive when their best players get hit with 2 early fouls.
The 1-3-1 is smart, Levert at the point, Donnal in the middle, Irvin and Chatman/Wilson on the wing and Walton underneath.
At the end of the day, they're going to have to guard someone man-to-man. 1-3-1 and 2-3 will only get you so far, especially in league play.
I don't think there's much anyone can do about defense unless these guys like Dawkins and MAAR are crazy good defenders --- which they could be. Even with that, we're proabably going to get owned in the post when we play top notch post players.
I'm just as concerned/intrigued about offense. This isn't a popular opinion, but Caris to me is a GREAT #2, as of now, I don't think he's a #1. I'd take THJ as a junior over Caris right now. This certainly can change, we haven't seen Caris and I definitely know he's better than THJ as a sophomore. But all this lottery stuff is overblown to me, IMO, he'll be a respectable 20s type pick and I think he's a respectable 20s type talent. Just like THJ.
Problem is, this team doesn't have Trey Burke who was the clear #1. I think Walton improves a TON, but to ask him to improve to that level is unrealistic. Irvin will also improve, but same thing.
I'm going to enjoy watching this team grow, but I think we should lower the expectations. They're going to be solid, but I think that's a 7 or 8-seed right now. We're without a true #1 and we're banking on a ton of potential, which SHOULD pan out, all signs point that it will. But it's going to take time.
Mr. Yost. I agree If Caris is going to be the go to he will need a strong 2nd option to keep the focus off him. I would also like to see him play a little more under control. I will take Caris over THJ though. He did many great things for MBB but THj's ability to be 3 of 17 and jack up another into a double team in a tight game made me nuts.
Junior THJ had a few bad shooting nights, but he was WAY more under control.
He also affected the game in other ways when his shot wasn't on. He came back and much better (and willing) defender. He also played PG for us in spurts when teams decided to double Burke to keep the ball out of his hands. He wasn't a bad rebounder either.
He was much improved.
Caris, agreed, I think he gets away with being out of control...but I'm still trying to figure out if he's actually IN control when he's out of control. Watch James Harden or Manu, sometimes they look wildy out of control too, but the ball goes in or they draw a foul and make their free throws. Different players and different talent, but at periods in their careers, much of their game was predicated on being unorthodox.
I'm not sure that's Caris. I think he's long and wirey and can leak and stretch his way around people and get fouled, but I'm not sold it's intentional. It's almost like if people just let him go rather than fouling sometimes - he'd lay up a brick off the backboard or just fall over.
All said, what this coaching staff does to guys in terms of attribute progression is borderline cheating. It's like they have the Xbox Marketplace points for progression and no one else does.
I haven't been following the team as much this summer, and I know Caris has had the issue with his foot...but it wouldn't shock me if he isn't a much smarter and under control basketball player this season. One who's ready to lead.
Unlike last year where it was a GRIII, Stauskas, McGary (who's gonna be the #1??!!!) It's clearly Caris this year even if Irvin and/or Walton has a better year. Caris is older and this is his team from day 1. That should help settle people into their roles quicker than last year where we didn't get settled until we went on the road to MSU.
In the end, I'm just not banking on Caris to be a top 10 draft pick and have an MVP season. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I've seen too many people make that assumption just because of Burke and Stauskas. Caris to me is poised to have a THJ junior year type season with more chances to shine because he's the #1. Walton I see making a HUGE leap this year and I see Irvin settling in, although he's gotta put it on the floor and pass every now and again.
I'll be most interested to see which true freshman is better than advertised because we're going to need at least 1 of them to be a MAJOR player on this team. Darius Morris/Trey Burke level of dependence.
LeVert glides, slides and uses his length to get around people.
Harris would break you down and rise over you.
Both very effective, both very good players, but just two different ways of going about it. I'd argue that Stauskas played more like Harris than LeVert (and I know Harris wasn't even close to the shooter Nik is/was). Stauskas used moves, he'd cross you up, hit you with a step back, he'd drive hard and pull up. That's more Harris' game than what LeVert does. LeVert slithers and eurosteps his way to the basket for a lay in.
Again, both work and you need variety on your team. Both are "creating your own shot"...it's just going about it in different ways. Manu and Kobe can both create their own shot, but they don't play the same way.
Anyway, my thoughts on Caris are simply a personal prediction. I think he's a very good #2, I don't see him as a lead man. I don't think he's better than THJ the junior year version, but I think he will get there this year...however, I don't see him blowing by THJ as a junior into the NBA lottery. IMO, both are 20's type players. Which is damn good.
For my money, Irvin actually has the highest NBA draft ceiling on the team, just not the 2015 draft, but the 2016 draft...again, IMO.
Statistically ------ LeVert was better last year than any of THJR's 3 seasons at UM.
But he also wasn't the focal point of the team or even the 2nd focal point in most instances.
Also, like Jordan Morgan...THJ did things that didn't show up in the stat sheet. He guarded the other teams best player and our perimeter defense wasn't nearly as bad as it was last year when LeVert did the same thing.
THJ played PG for us in crucial spots when Burke would get double teamed on the inbound. His solid play at that position may have beat MSU and it definitely helped us vs. OSU (twice when Craft was all over Burke) and against VCU in the tournament when they wouldn't let Burke bring the ball up.
***This was a huge improvement from his sophomore year when he could barely dribble and he probably was a key contributor to the loss on the road @OSU because he kept turning the ball over when Craft was all over Burke keeping the ball out of his hands...THJ was awful at ball handling but got MUCH better his junior year***
So in this case, like with J-Mo, I don't think stats tell the whole story. THJ was asked to do a lot more than LeVert was last year. LeVert will be asked to do those same things this year so we'll see. Again, I think he's right there, but I don't see him being significantly better is all I've been saying. Again, I think they're both NBA Draft 20s level talents and that's nothing to sneeze at.
Personally, I thought THJ was one of the 2-3 best all around players in the country his junior year behind Oladipo. His transition to the NBA has shown that when everyone threw shade on me for saying this way back then. I don't think he was one of the 2-3 BEST players, but all around, able to do some of everything...his junior year was very solid. He just took so much heat for being a streaky shooter, but really he was pretty average --- just in Beilein's system with Beilein's players, average looks below average.
Caris wasn't option 1B. Stauskas was clearly #1. Caris was 2 or 3 depending on which GRIII you got.
You can't take anything from the Duke game last year...NO one had a define role at that time. You should basically wipe out anything before the game @MSU. Hell Caris was our leading scorer in a couple games early in the year. J-Mo and Horford had big games early. We were still finding roles and guys didn't even know who was going to take the big shot when we played Duke.
Elite defender locked Nik down? When? He had a tough stretch in the middle of the B1G season when teams put smaller guards on him. Not elite defenders.
Nik Stauskas gave Gary Harris, maybe the best defender in the B1G and MSU, maybe the best defensive TEAM in the B1G 19, 25 and 17 points respectively. The guy played three games versus the Spartans last year and averaged over 20ppg.
Once he figured out how to score on smaller guards, it was over.
Walton is not Trey Burke, they don't even play the same way. Walton is a very good player and I've already said I think he'll be most improved. But for anyone to think that suggests he'll be elite is crazy. The B1G lost a number of PGs, so maybe he'll be the best...but no one can sit here in July and be sure it's going to happen. Trey had more indicators for sophomore success than Walton has.
How do you know? Tim Hardaway Jr. was awful his sophomore year. He was actually better his freshman year. Again, this is just an assumption. I can't argue against it, but you can't argue for it because neither of us know. Until the tournament, Irvin hadn't shown ANY indication that he was going to be ready to step into a bigger role. He finally started to put the ball on the floor in the tournament and pass to keep the flow of the offense. I'm definitely not sold that he won't jack up horrible shots like THJ did his sophomore year.
No argument to the last bullet. Don't forget MAAR if you're including Dawkins.
Spike is going to play, he's too good and the offense moves too well with him in for him to sit. Especially behind true freshman wings with athleticism and talent. His minutes will probably go down as the season goes on, but don't be surprised to see 4-6 minutes a game with Walton and Spike on the floor together.
After that Duke game on 12/3/13 Stauskas scored double figures in every single game except TWO (including the tournaments).
One of those two games we won by 30 points and he had 9 points and 8 assists (and 5 rebs).
In the month of March he scored less than 15 once, he had 14 against Tennessee.
Jeebus - you guys are writing posts as long as mine. Settle down!
Simply because you said Nik got "completely shut down" against Wisconsin.
You have to be talking about @Wisconsin, because we lost at home.
Nik had 23 points and hit the game winning shot. How did he get completely shut down?
If you're talking about the home game...LeVert did lead Michigan in scoring, but you pick ONE game that we LOST out of the entire season. Does anyone care who carried the team in a loss? What a shitty argument. Would you like me to go back and pick every single game Stauskas outscored LeVert last year?
You and I know it's not even close. The argument is bogus.
And yes...you dismiss half the season when you're talking about roles because last year's team took that long to find them. Caris was not 1B like you stated.
It was Stauskas, McGary and GRIII trying to figure out who was the lead dog. McGary got hurt which left the other two...it took some time but eventually Stauskas was the undisputed lead player on the team. There was no 1B from McGary, GRIII or LeVert. Period.
Just look at the numbers.
Why am I even arguing this? There is literally NO one on this board that will agree with you. Stauskas was B1G MVP...and you're going to tell me LeVert was right there with him?! 1B...MVP #2? lol, get outta here.
Last year, even with Morgan on the floor. Morgan was strong and definitely was our best post defender but let's not pretend he was better than he was. The biggest issue with the defense last year was poor perimeter defense and with Walton, Levert and Irvin a year older and stronger I would expect to see significant improvement. Bless Stauskas's heart but he was really bad at defense. The defense will be overall improved compared to last year.
Yeah, kind of a fluffy article. We aren't going to be a better team after losing Morgan and McGary, along with Horford. I'd say a sweet 16 birth should be our ceiling.
On this team. They made the elite eight without McGary. They lose three starters (Morgan, Stauskas and GR3) and a solid bench player from last year's elite eight squad. Two of these were stars and two were role players. They gain at least two likely early starters (Donnal and Chatman), two possible eventual starters (DJ Wilson and Doyle) and 2-3 backup role players with greater potential. Of these new faces, at least 2-3 are potential stars ( top 30 recruit Chatman and top 100 recruits Donnal and DJ Wilson). And who knows if one of the less heralded recruits will be another diamond in the rough? So while they may have a big learning curve and expectations shouldn't be too high, this team has huge potential again thanks to Beilein's genius.
It might be best to at least let the guy show what he can do in a few games at the college level before comparing him to a fifth year senior. Having said that, I am cautiously optimistic about Donnal's abilities.
as much as we miss him was a non factor in our Big Ten Title and E8 run. The article is not just comparing Donnal to a 5th year senior but it also tracking career and statistical development as well. j-Mo started as a true freshmen out of need and played pretty well. Donnal will have had a year of practice and weight training in JBs system before he ever plays his 1st game. We are losing a key role player in J-Mo. Donnal however has greater upside and I'm not expecting a big drop off to start the season.
im optimstic, too. its beilein, why do people doubt him still?
the guy i still associate most with beilein and his "system" is kevin pittsnoggle. a non descript recuit, 6'9 center with range, whom beilein rode to the elite 8.
morgan and mcgary are quality big men, but neither had range. im really excited to see donnal just because i think we'll finally be seeing a true beilein offense.
defense and rebounding will be a problem again, but they were last year too. i know our offensive efficiency was off the charts last year, but with donnal stretching the d i expect it to be even better.
it'd be nice to have an awesome d, but this team is going to win a lot of games next. i definitely think this team can be better than the 2014 team.
This article indirectly sandbags the champion accomplishments of Morgan last season
I think rather directly. And that the article is complete nonsense. Ignores defense, rebounding, toughness that was Morgan's hallmark, etc.
Complete nonsense? Why? Why is it so tough to fathom that a top 100 talent that fits everything John beilein wants in a big man will be better for Michigan basketball than a 5 year senior who wasn't highly regarded and had an extremely limited offensive game? If Donnal was holding his own against all of our experienced big men last year, I don't see why it's so crazy to think we will be better with him starting.
This is why we are fans. We assume the best based on very little data. Expectations have to be kept realistic. Where you tout Donnal's top 100 status as a big plus, it is more realistically IMHO a reason for caution. Top 100 ain't a stud. If Donnal is that good, it strikes me he wouldn't have been red-shirted last season--as we definitely could have used another body at the 4. Now you might say we get him for 4 more years, but I don't think that is the way most coaches look at it these days--and again if Donnal becomes the player we hope he will become, he likely won't be here for the 5th season anyways. And no matter how you cut it, you grossly undervalue morgan's contributions.
I barely mentioned Morgan. I'm not sure how I "grossly undervalued" his contributions. Will he be tough to replace? Yes. But that doesn't mean it can't be done. Horford wasn't great and he was just fine. But you're right, we are assuming a lot off of very little. Like Donnal isn't tough. And he can't play D. And he can't hedge on a pick and roll. Like I said further down, we'll be just fine
that Donnal can do those things--and relatively emphatically. That's the point--we have almost no idea....unless you've been at practice.
And in response to the following poster, Donnal was always considered a 4 first (pick and pop) who might also be able to play some 5. He's only a 5 now because circumstances dictated it--we have few other options.
him as a center there was no reason not to red shirt him last season. I don't disagree on Morgan though. I tend to think Michigan will miss him more than any other departure. Who replaces his smarts and veteran leadership?
with Irvin at the 4--because of his offense--but we all know that it was a defensive and rebounding issue when GRIII was out--partcularly after McGary was lost. In fact, there were times last year we could have used a third 5 because of foul trouble and Horford's playing fade down the stretch.
Don't get me wrong, I am not questioning the decision to redshirt Donnal whatsoever--I trust the coaches decision--but I do think it is a reason to keep expectations in perspective.
I have the sense that those who believe that Donnal will be better at the 5 than Morgan (next year) will feel vindicated the first time he hits a 3---ignoring the defensive differences.
I think you might be overstating that a bit.
I loved Morgan's time at Michigan and will miss him next year. That doesn't mean I can't think Donnal will be good too.
As long as we've got Beilein at the helm I think we'll be just fine. We need a legitimate big man sooner or later, but Donnal has had a year in the system to bulk up and learn the ropes. There will undoubtedly be growing pains, but in the long run, I think we'll be alright.
A center that can shoot the 3? Yes please.
We will have to help on Kaminsky and Hammond but no other bigs scare me in league play. Maybe Pitchford, from Nebraska, and he plays on the perimeter a lot. Teams will have more girth on the block so all 5 must crash the glass.
Egwu from Illinois is going to give our big men a lot of trouble. He is a man.
But I don't really worry about him making moves and scoring on the block. I worry about his rebounding and put backs. 1-5 must help on the boards.
No possible way we'll be good without Novak and Stu. They were seniors and our toughest guys. No way we'll be good without Morris. He facilitated everything and was our best player. No way we'll be good without Burke and THJ. They were our best players. No way we'll be good without stauskas, mcgary, Morgan, and GR3. They were our best players.
The pessimism on this board is ridiculous. We will be just fine as long as beilein is our coach. Let's get some perspective
Or you're using maybe 1 comment to make a generalization.
Everyone knew we'd be okay with Morris if Burke could come in and play well because the rest of the team was much better than the year before.
Everyone knew we'd be better than that in 2012-13 because Beilein had the best recruiting class we'd seen since the Fab 5.
Everyone knew we'd still be okay without Burke and THJ because we still had that recruiting class...many said the same thing they had said two years before when Burke was a true freshman. "We'll be fine if (Walton) can be solid for us."
And I don't see anyone freaking out about this team. But you can't just assume they're going to be elite like the past two.
Didn't UK win a national championship and then get knocked out in the first round of the NIT a year or two later?
Using the past to just cover up potential issues about the present is stupid. We have a completely different team and unlike last year where we had the guys on the team, they just hadn't been in the roles they were stepping into...we've got guys now that no one has ever seen play college basketball.
No one is saying there is no possible way we'll be good. Earlier I said a 7-8 seed should be the expectations NOW for this team. That's still a pretty good team!
In December/January if the freshman turn out to be better than projected then obviously we should be better than a 7-8 seed.
For everyone 1 person that you're teasing in your post, I can find the blind MGoGoggles poster who thinks we should be a top 10 team just because we have been the past 2 years. However, I think the vast majority would agree that we're somewhere between a 6 and 9-seed right now. Just like I think the vast majority would put us somewhere between 20 and 35 for football.
But make generalizations about the outliers if you want to...
Calm down. I dont see any pessimism. We just lost 60% of everything - scoring, rebounding, etc. We lost 3 NBA players. We lost our best senior interior defender. Teams take steps back - the program is in great shape with great coaching but there are years it will have ups and downs. Frankly if Mitch came back I think we are another Elite 8 team. That pushes Donnal to 4 (or the bench and Chatman as a 4) and gives you Irvin, Caris, Walton, Mitch and (Donnal/Chatman) as our starting 5 which I'd put as top 10 in the nation. This team is super young and our freshman are not even of the "recruiting level" of what Maryland is getting this year. But I am sure our coaches will develop most of them well.
There is no shame in having a team loaded with freshman struggle at times, and not be as good as the one prior to it. It happens. We have a lot of unknowns on this team and everyone assumes 2 of our top 3 options for next year will take major jumps because players in prior years did - there is no guarantee. If they don't or only 1 does - we have issues. Same if Donnal is not what we hope he is - we are all needing 22-24 minutes out of a guy no one has seen. He could surprise to the upside, be very good, be very average, or bomb. Who knows. We are speculating and aside from Caris, Spike, and Walton almost nothing is a known quantity.
That's the only way you can't see the pessimism! You don't know how well Donnal or the team will play next year. The praise for Donnal has been steady and consistently positive from the coaches and players, including Morgan himself so it's not based on nothing. The point is in Beilein we trust, show some faith and stop placing limitations or expectations on the team. Did you think Michigan would win the Big Ten last year by 3 full games after losing The national player of the year and Tim Hardaway jr? Let's trust in Beilein.
They're NOT mutually exclusive!
You can trust in Beilein and think THIS team is an 8-seed.
Do you think MSU fans don't trust in Izzo? Does that mean they're going to be a 1 seed every year? No.
No one is placing limitations, that's what you don't get. We're placing realistic predictions and expectations on this team. Look those words up and you'll see the difference.
How can any fan place limitations on a team they're not on anyway? So if I say that we're not going to make the tournament then the NIT is the limit for this team? Does it work it reverse? What if I say we're going to win the National Championship?
You're being ridiculous for the sake of being ridiculous. No one in this thread has said anything absurd in this thread (except Mat who thinks Caris was 1B to Stauskas last year)...at least not about his/her expectations for the team at this point in this year.
This board is full of praise for Beilein but I don't see the faith in this thread. Bunch of chicken littles up in here.
And what does Beilein's praise have to do with anything?
Just because people think he's the best coach in the country doesn't mean they also have to think this particular team is as good as the last two.
You logic doesn't make any sense. Especially when you want to call out people for being "chicken littles."
Praise for a coach doesn't mean he's got a great team. Nebraska's coach got a shit ton of praise last year, they didn't win the league, the conference tourney or the NCAA tourney. Doesn't mean Miles isn't a great coach.
Coach K, Izzo and Roy Williams don't win it every year. So what does praise or thinking highly of a coach have to do with expectations for one particular season?
Did you believe Michigan would win the conference last year after losing National player of the year Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr.? The answer is surely no, as I myself did not think it possible. You see the point is that you have no idea what this team will look like, with the new additions, development and coaching adaptations. No one does at this point, so what I recommend is just wait and see what the team will look like. In the mean time, I would strongly urge holding out on placing any limitations on Beilein and the team this season as I would not at all be surprised if they once again accomplish great things. I'm not saying they will be better than last year, I'm saying we don't know yet.
We were a preseason top 10-15 team!!!
I wasn't the only one that thought we were going to have a great year.
No one predicted MSU would struggle early on the way they did, but the majority of the college basketball world thought Michigan was going to be a pretty good team.
You're not making ANY sense.
To win the conference. They not only won it they ran away by 3 full games! Are you trying to imply that Michigan didn't exceed expectations last year? No one thought they would suck but winning a conference by that margin is demonstrative of Beilein's ability to adapt. Just like last year, the majority of the college basketball world thinks Michigan will be a pretty good team. If you don't think Michigan exceeded expectations last year, that's fine as you seem emotionally invested in this thread. I predict Michigan competes for another conference title, finishing a close 2nd to Wisconsin. Tell me what your prediction is for the season and we will see how it turns out.
Michigan winning the conference by 3 full games doesn't mean anything other than the conference may have been down. It could mean that the conference favorite got obliterated by injuries and they didn't get healthy until March. It could mean anything.
Margin depends on the other 11 teams, not how good Michigan is. Who's to say the 2012 team wouldn't have won the conference by 4 or 5 games last year? The league was much stronger 2 years ago and they didn't win by 3 games...it doesn't tell the full story. It tells 1/12 of it.
In the end, they finished the year at or very close to where they were predicted to finish. Period. End of discussion. To argue otherwise is crazy.
It's not like they weren't a preseason top 25, let alone a top 10 team. It's not like they were picked to finish 6th in the conference. They were on average the SEVENTH best team in the country, preseason, lol. They were eliminated in the Elite 8.
Maybe you think we're talking about Nebraska, I don't know where they were preseason, but they surpassed expectations a hell of a lot more than Michigan did last year. Which is fine, because Michigan had the better year. Surpassing expectations doesn't mean anything when it all comes down to it. If you pick me #1, I'd be happy to meet expectations and at the end of the year.
To the conference was down? Or MSU had injuries? Sounds like someone is trying to explain away the fact that Michigan by all measures out performed expectation. When you dominate a conference in which no one expects you to win, that's exceeding expectations. A conference that happened to have 3 elite 8 teams and a final four squad. BTW Did you follow Michigan last season? If so, you should know what a huge blow losing Mcgary was. At that point, many if not most of the college basketball world questioned whether Michigan would even make the tournament. Do you remember that? There were threads on here if you need to refresh your memory. So yeah, going from expected borderline tourney team to dominating the conference.
Thanks for the laugh :)
I didn't think Michigan would win the conference last year, but I fully expected a great season. Those are entirely different things.
Ignorance annoys me far too much. I need to learn to let shit go.
Michigan Preseason #9
Michigan Preseason #7
Michigan Preseason #7
Michigan Preseason #5
...your statement was absolutely RIDICULOUS when you look at that. Losing Burke and THJ and we were still at top 9 team by most people and major media outlets and sportswriters.
Maybe it was just you that was pessimistic about last year. You said it yourself that you didn't think it was possible.
The only reason Michigan wasn't picked to win the conference last year is because many people had MSU #1 or #2 in the country. However, MICHIGAN finished right where people predicted they would. MSU just struggled and finished just below Michigan. Stauskas was also right there for preseason POY, but Gary Harris was the favorite.
Don't act like people thought we had a borderline tournament team with no individual talent.
This time 2 years ago I said Michigan was a Final Four team, this time last year I said this is an Elite 8 team, this year I've said we're an #7-#10 seed and we're young, I think we'll come together late in the year and upset a #1 or #2 seed in the tournament and bow out in the Sweet 16. None of those are/were unrealistic expectations.
They also weren't limitations, because 2 years ago the team surpassed my expectation by one game and made it to the Championship game. So I didn't limit them in anything.
" However, MICHIGAN finished right where people predicted they would. MSU just struggled and finished just below Michigan". This statement is only true if "people" predicted Michigan would win the conference, which is not the case. No one predicted Michigan to win the conference. As far as MSU finishing "just below Michigan", that is a stretch at best since they finished 3 full games behind Michigan. There is NO ONE on this planet that thought MSU would lose TWICE as many conference games as Michigan. The bottom line is despite you trying to spin it, Beilein and Michigan significantly outperformed expectation last season and I expect more of the same this season.
We're talking about where Michigan is predicted to finish the year. Have you paid attention to anything in this thread? You called us chicken littles for having resonable expectations when we currently have little to no data and not blindly thinking Michigan is going to be elite just because we have Beliein.
Even if we are talking about winning the conference, Michigan was picked #2. How can you even say that when we were picked second and we were a top 10 team?
Michigan didn't "significantly outperform expectations." Period.
Significant would be if Iowa, Northwestern or Penn State doing what Michigan did.
Michigan literally finished the year exactly where they started. Yes, we won the B1G, but we were picked second based off of NATIONAL rankings.
Your argument makes ZERO sense no matter which angle you try to come at it. Whether it's what we were actually talking about (a majority opinion that #6-#10 seed is reasonable for this team in its current state --- in JULY...OR...Michigan "significantly outperformed expectations" --- in which they finished 1 spot higher in the conference, thus winning the conference and 2-3 spots higher in the MVP voting, thus winning B1G POY). You literally have no argument.
Your response is like everyone on here thinks we're a NIT team. Like we'll never be good every again. We were a 4-seed two years ago and we had maybe/probably the best team we've had since 1993. You know, the team that was a shit call on a clean block away from OT in the national championship game?
Someone thinking that this team is a 6 or 7-seed isn't a chicken little. Someone calling that person out for not assuming that Michigan will forever be a 1 or 2-seed, is, well, kind of a prick.
No one picked Michigan to win the conference. Can you comprehend that? Michigan won the conference easily, there is a difference in winning the conference and running away by 3 games. Can you comprehend that distinction? For you to continue to insist Michigan didn't out perform expectations last year is laughable. No one predicted Michigan to win the conference and they ended up 15-3. That is dominant if you didn't know, in fact the closest competition was Wisconsin and MSU at 12-6. Wisconsin ended up a final four squad, MSU an elite 8 and yet both squads lost TWICE as many games in conference as Michigan. Anyone that thinks Michigan didn't exceed expectation is in denial or something worse. Now lighten up Francis.
I see next year being a small but appreciable step back, but the year after next when Chatham Wilson and Donnal are sophomores and Walton/Spike are team captains with either Levert/Irvin as the #1 we are going to be on the short list for Final Four picks
It's in good hands for the foreseeable future. No worries here.