Update to Big Ten Tournament Scenarios

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March 8th, 2013 at 10:36 AM
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urbanachiever
Joined: 01/16/2010
MGoPoints: 614
Update to Big Ten Tournament Scenarios

Sorry if some find this repetitive, but we're at the point where we can pinpoint exactly how the remaining games will affect our seeding.

Indiana @ Michigan Illinois @ OSU Wisconsin @ PSU Michigan BTT seed
Michigan Illinois Either 2
Michigan OSU Either 3
Indiana Either PSU 4
Indiana Either Wisconsin 5

If we beat Indiana, only the Illinois/OSU game matters. If we lose to Indiana, only the PSU/Wisconsin game matters.

Chart

UPDATE: Times for the remaining games (thanks to user turd ferguson)

Wisconsin @ Penn State
12pm, Sunday (BTN)

Illinois @ Ohio State
12:30pm, Sunday (ESPN)

Indiana @ Michigan
4pm, Sunday (CBS)

"I hope I can get a bunch of championships - like 15"

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March 8th, 2013 at 10:40 AM | Would (Score:2)
UM Indy
Joined: 03/05/2009
MGoPoints: 1401

be a shame to drop all the way to the #5 seed.  Take care of business on Sunday and we won't need to face that dilemma.

"Better to have died as a small boy than to fumble this football" -- John Heisman

March 8th, 2013 at 10:42 AM | Okay (Score:2)
GoWings2008
GoWings2008's picture
Joined: 01/26/2011
MGoPoints: 1449

I can handle rooting for Illinois through all this...anyone other than Staee or ohio.

The Team, The Team, The Team

March 8th, 2013 at 10:45 AM | For the sake of adding a (Score:5 Normal)
turd ferguson
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Joined: 12/09/2009
MGoPoints: 2916

For the sake of adding a little information (home teams & date/times):

Wisconsin @ Penn State
12pm, Sunday

Illinois @ Ohio State
12:30pm, Sunday

Indiana @ Michigan
4pm, Sunday

March 8th, 2013 at 10:46 AM | Thanks, I'll throw it into (Score:2 Normal)
urbanachiever
Joined: 01/16/2010
MGoPoints: 614

Thanks, I'll throw it into the post

"I hope I can get a bunch of championships - like 15"

March 8th, 2013 at 10:50 AM | SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY!!! (Score:2)
GoWings2008
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Joined: 01/26/2011
MGoPoints: 1449

SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY!!!

The Team, The Team, The Team

March 8th, 2013 at 11:20 AM | Sunday funday (Score:1)
TheDirtyD
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Joined: 07/18/2009
MGoPoints: 942

Sunday funday

If you see someone in an airport with Michigan logos on luggage and they are wearing a pilot uniform come say hello.

March 8th, 2013 at 10:47 AM | Matchups (Score:2)
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 4159

The good news is that with Wisconsin losing, we can't slot into the 4 seed (and thus the most difficult quarterfinal) if we win.

If we beat Indiana, our most likely opponent is probably Iowa, as I expect Illinois to lose @ OSU and Minnesota to lose @ Purdue. That would put us in a quarter against a team that's desperate for a big time win, but also one that we handled pretty easily (albeit a long time ago).

If we lose, we're almost certainly playing Wisconsin.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:03 AM | Obviously I want to win, but (Score:2 Normal)
Soulfire21
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Joined: 03/18/2010
MGoPoints: 3130

Obviously I want to win, but I absolutely would not mind another meeting with Wisconsin in the tourney for their buzzer-beater miracle shot against us.  Plus they appear to be reeling a bit (blowout losses to Purdue at the Kohl Center (!!) and against MSU).

HAIL.

March 8th, 2013 at 1:48 PM | I agree with you in (Score:2)
PB-J Time
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Joined: 09/06/2012
MGoPoints: 258

I agree with you in theory...but the idea of sitting through their slug-fest "style" of playing football on a bball court disgusts me

March 8th, 2013 at 11:15 AM | Well we can't be slotted 4 (Score:2)
AmaizeingBlue
Joined: 09/01/2010
MGoPoints: 1344

Well we can't be slotted 4 seed, but we would be the 5 seed if we lose.  Which would require playing Thursday against the 12 seed, then the 4 seed the next day, then the 1 seed the day after that.  That would be tough.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:23 AM | Yeah, but we can control (Score:2)
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 4159

Yeah, but we can control whether we get the 5 seed. Had Wisconsin won, we could have beaten Indiana and still had to face Staee in the quarterfinal as the 4. That's a rough reward for a share of the title.

March 8th, 2013 at 10:55 AM | I wanna replay Penn State and (Score:2)
NFG
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Joined: 04/24/2012
MGoPoints: 2136

I wanna replay Penn State and run up the score.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:33 AM | Yeah (Score:2)
DCAlum
Joined: 01/30/2012
MGoPoints: 213

I actually wouldn't mind too much being the 5 seed and playing PSU and then Wisconsin and just kicking the crap out of them.

 

That said, I'd prefer a B10 championship. But if there's a silver lining to a loss to Indiana, that's it.

March 8th, 2013 at 10:55 AM | Indiana has nothing to play for (Score:1)
Lumpy_wolverine
Joined: 02/01/2013
MGoPoints: 26

Clicking to the chart - Indiana has already clinched #1 seed in the BIG tournament, so they are only playing for pride / possible NCAA seeding. UM is playing for a bye & a significantly easier BIG tournament second round matchup. I hope that we show a desperation.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:16 AM | um (Score:2)
Willis Ward
Joined: 08/25/2011
MGoPoints: 68

and an outright title.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:22 AM | True, but . . . (Score:1)
Lumpy_wolverine
Joined: 02/01/2013
MGoPoints: 26

True - but if IU loses, they still share the title and can lift a banner.  For UM, it is the difference between sharing the BIG title, or not.  I still think we should be more desperate.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:50 AM | If Indiana loses, they will (Score:2)
joeyb
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Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 11300

If Indiana loses, they will have lost 3 of their last 4 games. They will drop from the overall 1-seed to on the edge of 1/2 seed. Michigan beating them puts them on that same edge, although Michigan will probably be on the losing end of that deal. That will put a lot of pressure on Indiana in the BTT, which is pressure that they don't want. If they beat Michigan on the road, Indiana locks up that overall #1 seed essentially.

I don't think they have as much to play for as Michigan does, but it's not like there is nothing left for them to accomplish.

March 8th, 2013 at 10:59 AM | Whatever it takes to get into (Score:1)
brandon_cook
Joined: 01/21/2011
MGoPoints: 141

Whatever it takes to get into the Midwest bracket. That is what I want. Unfortunately they will probably have to win out to do so.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:55 AM | Midwest bracket might be a (Score:2)
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 4159

Midwest bracket might be a mixed blessing. On the one hand, closer to fans. On the other, Louisville's likely on the other side. Though it's probably silly to project through to the round of 8, I'd much rather be a 2 seed and see Gonzaga, Georgetown (though they probably blew their 1 seed chance) or maybe even Duke, than Louisville.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:04 AM | Some Updated Probabilities... (Score:3 Normal)
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8709

With sixteen scenarios eliminated and the Massey numbers updated, we have the following:

 




MICH / IND. MSU / NW WISC. / PSU OSU / ILL. LIKELIHOOD OF SCENARIO IN UMHOOPS TABLE MICHIGAN WOULD BE…
0.45 0.04 0.2 0.17 0.061% 4
0.45 0.04 0.2 0.83 0.299% 4
0.45 0.04 0.8 0.17 0.245% 5
0.45 0.04 0.8 0.83 1.195% 5
0.45 0.96 0.2 0.17 1.469% 4
0.45 0.96 0.2 0.83 7.171% 4
0.45 0.96 0.8 0.17 5.875% 5
0.45 0.96 0.8 0.83 28.685% 5
0.55 0.04 0.2 0.17 0.075% 2
0.55 0.04 0.2 0.83 0.365% 3
0.55 0.04 0.8 0.17 0.299% 2
0.55 0.04 0.8 0.83 1.461% 3
0.55 0.96 0.2 0.17 1.795% 2
0.55 0.96 0.2 0.83 8.765% 3
0.55 0.96 0.8 0.17 7.181% 2
0.55 0.96 0.8 0.83 35.059% 3

For reference, Michigan has a 55% win probability over Indiana on Massey, and everything else relates precisely to the scenarios on the UMHoops spreadsheet. The essential message is that, looking at likely scenarios, a win (bold type) puts us in a position to be a 3-seed, and a loss  (italics) would make us the 5-seed (again, relating directly to their table). So, based on current estimates:

 



1 Seed 0
2 Seed 9.350%
3 Seed 45.650%
4 Seed 9.000%
5 Seed 36.000%

 

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

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March 8th, 2013 at 11:09 AM | That is the way I see it.  I (Score:2 Normal)
El Tigre
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Joined: 03/14/2011
MGoPoints: 552

That is the way I see it.  I can't see MSU, OSU, or Wisc losing this weekend so we are playing for the 3 seed with a loss relegating us to the 5 seed.

 

I hope they really bring it because getting a conference championship and avoiding a rematch with Indiana until the finals will be huge.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:14 AM | Wiscy no lock (Score:1)
Lumpy_wolverine
Joined: 02/01/2013
MGoPoints: 26

I don't know that Wiscy is even 80% at Penn State.  PSU has won 2 of their last 3 (including one - ahem - against one of the top teams in the BIG) and have played most other teams tough.  In the meantime, Wiscy has lost two straight (including home against Purdue).  Watching last night's game against Staee - Wiscy looked pathetic.  They were lucky to get past 40 points.  I would put this game more at 60/40.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:47 AM | Even if Wiscy loses that (Score:1)
El Tigre
El Tigre's picture
Joined: 03/14/2011
MGoPoints: 552

Even if Wiscy loses that merely moves us from the 5 seed to the 4 seed.  I think it is much more important to be a 3 seed this year with OSU as the 2 seed letting IU/Wiscy/MSU battle it out on the other side of the bracket.  At the end of the day the only game that matters is beatin IU on Sunday.

March 8th, 2013 at 11:58 AM | What happenned last time we assumed (Score:1)
Lumpy_wolverine
Joined: 02/01/2013
MGoPoints: 26

You're assuming that, as the 5 seed in the BIG, we beat the 12th seed in the first round game - probable, but not certain.

Thinking about NCAA tourney seeding - playing PSU again has no upside.  Losing would drop us to a 4 seed.  Winning still does nothing but tire us out for the second round BIG tourney game.

The difference between 4 and 5 in the BIG is, ultimately, the difference between having to win 4 games versus having to win 3 games to win the tourney.  That's a pretty big difference, I think.

March 8th, 2013 at 1:59 PM | And don't forget the fresh legs factor (Score:2)
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: 4588

I don't think it will matter much on Friday, but come Saturday & Sunday, the 1-4 seeds will enjoy having played one less back-to-back-to-back-to-back game.

March 8th, 2013 at 1:45 PM | 5 (Score:3 Insightful)
SeattleWolverine
Joined: 11/07/2012
MGoPoints: 149

If we're the 5 we play PSU and it hurts our SOS/RPI even if we win. If we lose we really drop in seed. Even if we win, we have to come back and play the next day against a team that didn't play the day before. And then even if we beat WI in the 4 vs 5 we'll be playing our 3rd straight in the semis while Indiana is playing their 2nd straight and then in a hypothetical final we'd be playing our 4th straight day while OSU/MSU is playing their 3rd straight. You wind up with a more tired team than your opponents and that'll catch up to you at some point. Not good for a team that has arguably looked tired for a while now. There are several disadvantages to being the 5 and no upside to it. Obviously beating Indiana is the key but it would be fantastic if WI lost too.

March 8th, 2013 at 1:59 PM | Excellent point (Score:2)
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: 4588

;)

March 8th, 2013 at 12:03 PM | In a weird sort of way, I like this turn of events (Score:2)
StephenRKass
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Joined: 07/15/2008
MGoPoints: 4202

In a weird sort of way, I like this turn of events, with everything hinging on Michigan's last game. Of course, I wish Michigan had beat both Wisconsin and Penn State, and that Michigan was in the driver's seat. But that ship has sailed, and the best we can hope for is a shared title.

However, given the play of the freshmen, they undoubtedly have a huge sense of urgency. They won't take this game for granted in any way (PSU, anyone?) Their backs are to the wall, and they have to play the best in the Big 10.

That's the way it should be. You have to play the best and beat the best to be the best. The atmosphere and importance is about the best preparation I can think of for the upcoming tournaments in the Big 10 and the NCAA.

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

March 8th, 2013 at 12:25 PM | Question (Score:1)
Dustinlo
Joined: 01/11/2011
MGoPoints: 181

I am not up to par on the tie-breaker for seeding purposes. Can someone explain why IU is guaranteed the one seed and OSU the two seed if they both win?

"For the last 28 years, I've spent my life in the greatest of places, the University of Michigan." -Lloyd Carr

March 8th, 2013 at 12:35 PM | Tiebreakers (Score:2 Normal)
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 4159

The first tie breaker is record against all tied teams. 

(Presuming we win)

IU 4-2

OSU 3-3

UM 3-3

MSU 2-4

The next is record against #5 team, Wisconsin. OSU is 1-1, we're 0-1.

 

March 8th, 2013 at 12:36 PM | Makes sense. Thanks for the (Score:1)
Dustinlo
Joined: 01/11/2011
MGoPoints: 181

Makes sense. Thanks for the info.

"For the last 28 years, I've spent my life in the greatest of places, the University of Michigan." -Lloyd Carr

March 8th, 2013 at 12:36 PM | IU and OSU winning puts the (Score:2)
MGoRossGrad
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Joined: 11/18/2012
MGoPoints: 131

IU and OSU winning puts the standings as such:

IU 14-4

OSU and MSU 13-5

Wisconsin and Michigan 12-6

Clearly, IU has the one-seed, and OSU wins the tie-breaker with MSU because they have a better record against IU.

Hail. 

March 8th, 2013 at 12:38 PM | I meant to say if we won, but (Score:1)
Dustinlo
Joined: 01/11/2011
MGoPoints: 181

I meant to say if we won, but it was explained below. Thanks

"For the last 28 years, I've spent my life in the greatest of places, the University of Michigan." -Lloyd Carr

March 8th, 2013 at 12:38 PM | tiebreakers (Score:2)
ChicagoGoBlue
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Joined: 03/01/2013
MGoPoints: 154

Indiana, winning out, would have only 4 B1G losses, so they're #1.

OSU winning out would be tied with MSU winning out (because UW and UM would fall back to tied for 3rd in conference if Indy wins and Wisc wins sunday)  On the season, OSU and MSU split 1-1.  So they move on to tiebreaker 2: record vs the highest ranked team (IU).  OSU went 1-1 vs Indy, while MSU went 0-2.  Thus, OSU would be the 2 seed, MSU the three, in that scenario.

link to tiebreakers rules:

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/111011aae.html

My avatar is courtesy of LSAClassOf2000

March 8th, 2013 at 2:28 PM | All determinants in matrix form (Score:2)
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: 4588

2013 B1G Tourney Seed Determination Inputs

TEAM REC Vs IU UM OSU MSU WIS ILL MN IA
#2 Indiana 13-4 @UM -- 1-0 1-1 2-0 0-1 NA NA NA
#7 Michigan 12-5 IU 0-1 -- 1-1 1-1 0-1 NA NA NA
#14 Ohio State 12-5 ILL 1-1 1-1 -- 1-1 1-1 0-1 1-0 1-0
#10 Michigan State 12-5 NW 0-2 1-1 1-1 -- 2-0 NA NA NA
#22 Wisconsin 11-6 @PSU 1-0 1-0 1-1 0-2 -- 2-0 1-1 1-1

Blue indicates a game remaining

NA indicates the record versus any of ILL, MN, and/or IA cannot influence seeding.

March 8th, 2013 at 12:34 PM | Just Beat Indiana, that's all that matters (Score:2)
El Fuego
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Joined: 11/28/2011
MGoPoints: 568

Obviously the regular season championship is on the line, but being a 2 or 3 seed would be great, far better than a 4 or 5.  The difference is playing Minnesota or Illinois then Ohio versus Wisconsin then Indiana.  I would like to revenge the Wisconsin game a much as anyone, but the game will just be SOOOOO BORING

Me fail English?  That's unpossible!

March 8th, 2013 at 1:13 PM | Really nice being able to (Score:2)
GoBlueInIowa
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Joined: 03/05/2011
MGoPoints: 384

Really nice being able to actually root against Wisconsin and OSU

 

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