University and Trusted Agents taking @Tonnorscalions seriously?
It's 8am and it's quiet here so figured after some stalking on x I'd post this for discussion...
Mods- Do with this as you wish...but I think there are some notable items for discussion. I will not post screenshots out of respect for not blatantly adding fuel to rumors. People can dig as much as they wish. Color me more than skeptical. But...here are some things to consider....
Intriguing reasons to be intrigued...
- His following has gone from 20 people to ~5,300 in 48 hours.
- People we generally trust like Hole, Balas, Scott Bell etc follow him
- Others with big followings follow him ie "a name I cannot mention with 3m followers"
- Michigan insider following and Sam insinuated it's a "trusted person"
- My contact on the medical staff is saying there is "real discussion about this account"
- Maybe the most important...Sarah Hubbard, Jordan Acker and other UM regents seem to be following. I find that odd if this is just a parody bull**** account.
- He is starting to post things that loosely connect the dots, verse just random claims
- It was mentioned on osu radio today and it was somewhat taken seriously...or more of that "I'm kind of joking but concerned" type of talk.
Reasons to be skeptical
- Writes in a borderline cartoonish language. Maybe it's a pet peeve of mine, but it makes the whole thing feel like a skit.
- No major publications picking it up. Maybe it's too early, maybe just not enough there.
- While making some connections, it still seems like random "throw stuff on the wall and see what sticks".
The answer is "just win Saturday" and Michigan already lost this PR battle. BUT...if some of this stuff is more than smoke it really could make a different with public perception and impact what kind of penalty UM is looking at down the road.
If you want to venture just go for @tonnorscalions on x.
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:10 AM ^
And I'll be the first to raise my hand I laughed my butt off at the account and it sounded so silly it didn't even allow my imagination to wish cast.
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
There was a good post in the other thread by M-B Devil Dog that I think captured what's going on. We have someone who is connected to the program and knows where the bodies are buried, but a lot of this is word-of-mouth gossip without concrete evidence (because most sign-decoders aren't as sloppy as Connor Stalions).
But the thing to emphasize is that there is no concrete evidence...yet. By putting the allegations out there, the Vast Network can dig into them. Maybe some random person knows another random person (a la Sopwith) and is able to unearth something significant. That's why it's important to discuss these allegations.
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:57 AM ^
So what exactly are his allegations for those of us not following?
November 22nd, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
It's happening too fast and I'm probably not keeping up, but...
(1) A former OSU staffer now working as an engineer at Catapult (vendor that provides video services to college football programs) has been passing other teams' practice videos to OSU. Specifically the allegation is of 2022 Penn State videos, but the implication is that it's more widespread.
(2) OSU has been paying people to attend and video opponents' games. There's venmo evidence similar to what was found on Stalions; in particular, one person was sent money every week except for Michigan's bye week.
(3) The other OSU was running a similar operation when Knowles was there.
(4) OSU under Ryan/Knowles has paid other teams' analysts for information on Michigan's signals.
(5) He names the PI who did the document drop for OSU; it's a former Portsmouth NH cop who Chris Day would certainly have known. (Curiously, and this wasn't on the twitter thread, said cop filed his NH incorporation papers two days after Chris Day filed his for 4th and One. And he named his company "Alterum", Latin for "the other one.")
(6) The internal leak, and the source for everything since that document drop, is Yood, who's retaliating for his firing. Supposedly his father is a friend of the NCAA president, and you'll recall that his direct and unprecedented intervention was cited by the B1G as one of their reasons for acting.
There's some other stuff, too, involving other conferences, like SMU kicking someone from OU out of their stadium when they caught him doing advance scouting, and three SEC schools using Catapult ingame videos for their halftime work (use of in game videos being an NCAA violation).
November 22nd, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
Even if there is slight truth to this, I expect NCAA to completely back off from UM due to pressure from other golden child of college Football especially OSU.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
I have zero expectations for the ncaa or the Big Ten to do anything fair or rational on this matter.
November 22nd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
I suppose the unfair reaction would be for the B1G to suspend OSU's head coach over a bunch of stuff the commissioner saw on Twitter, but he wouldn't do that, would he?
November 22nd, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
What ever happened to the story re: OSU fans and alum being part of the officiating crew for a game between Michigan and ohio at ohio a few years ago? Was this just hyperbole or was their merit? To me, if their was ever an indication of cheating it was that game. Not sure what came of it but are those officials still working games?
Just wondering now that this spotlight is on sportsmanship and ethics.
Thx.
November 22nd, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^
Isn't it established that one of the 2016 refs was a guy that the Big Ten previously had forbidden from working the Game? I don't think that was just rumor.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:30 AM ^
I can't quite wrap my head around #6. It would mean that the reason for Harbaugh's current suspension is that the president of the NCAA was helping someone retaliate for being fired for underage solicitation. "Biggest scandal in the history of college athletics" wouldn't be hyperbole any more.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
Yeah. That one seems pure Qanon gossip.
November 22nd, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
Yes, this seems like just wild speculation. I would guess all he has is that the kid’s dad made a political donation which means nothing. But that may not even be true and there is little to connect his dad to the former governor. Yet, suggesting this way far out scandal without better info makes enemies with the head of the NCAA. That’s just stupid unless there is a lot more.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
I think the implication is that the President of the NCAA wasn't aware of the connection to Yood's firing. He was just acting on information provided by "a friend," but got played into being a tool of Yood's retaliation.
I don't think it makes it more plausible, but I believe that's the theory.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
I get that, but as we've learned by now the media doesn't tend to make those fine distinctions. It would be a career-ender for sure.
And as an object lesson in the importance of due process it would be hard to top.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
Why would you think this? They aren't backing of UM. That is the last thing I am thinking!! Just the opposite, they will ignore all this other noise and punish us is the more logical thought!
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
Huge if true. Someone should rip OSU, B10 & NCAA a new one if true.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
Do they explain how they know all this? Or if anything is being done with the info?
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
No. And at this point I wouldn't expect them to.
November 22nd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Thanks for this well-thought list. I emailed it to the press room at ESPN. Others should also disseminate. Force them to reckon with these questions, sooner rather than later.
November 22nd, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
ESPN has a press room? Surprised. Would have thought they just go off tweets and texts from close "friends".
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:57 AM ^
- No major publications picking it up. Maybe it's too early, maybe just not enough there.
They won’t for awhile because the vast majority of them already ran with Ryan Day’s PI/PR bs unconcerned about due process, and to take this stuff up too quickly would make them look like the pearl clutching click-thirsty idiots they are. Thamel himself is probably telling them to wait and see what the facts are.
EDIT:
Potentially interesting thread to pull on here (disclaimer, could also just be too much tinfoil):
- Catapult just put on a conference in April this year:
- Sports science directors of MSU (Bill Burghadt), PSU (Josh Nelson), and OSU (Tyler Carpenter, has been there for ~3 years) were all speakers- it looks like each school had a few people there but I can't confirm (even if not, wouldn't kill the below speculation)
- IMO, it's pretty weird timing for those 3 schools to have all just been at the Catapult event, and they're the 3 schools who screamed and cried the very loudest about how M was a big bad cheating meanie
- Wondering if maybe these Catapult conferences (which they explicitly state are not recorded) double as opportunities to get together and dish dirt, trade film/tape, and all kinds of other shady shit
November 22nd, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
It was sort of interesting how Day said he didn't give Michigan's signals to Purdue and everyone just dropped it. OSU told TCU that "we were good at signal stealing." They are giving information to other coaches, how are they credible?
November 22nd, 2023 at 1:05 PM ^
I saw the interview with Day. He said the compliance department interviewed everyone "here". Since the signs were given away last season that doesn't really mean much...
Tinfoil hat goes back on the shelf...
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
If this whole saga has taught me anything, its two things:
1. If you get caught doing something you shouldn’t have, you better have your messaging/response straight and ready to go once the jig is up to reduce the “surprise” factor. It would’ve almost been better if Harbaugh did know about the sign stuff so he could’ve out-rulebooked the authorities like he has done in the past or accepted responsibility right away. A 3-game ban against MSU, Purdue, and PSU is much more manageable than PSU, Maryland, and OSU.
2. If you have dirt on other schools, you better have the gun locked and loaded and probably shoot first before you get into a he said-she said war of accusations/evidence. The problem with the current state of evidence against other teams is that it now looks like UM is trying to say “Yeah but they were doing it, too” no matter how obvious or concrete the evidence is. Michigan now has an uphill battle on the media war because they’re looked at as the retaliator.
It scares me to think that going forward teams are going to weaponize staff and legal teams to covertly accuse programs of rule breaking based on flimsy evidence and hearsay in hopes media outlets pick it up and run with it. Yes, this isn’t anything new and teams have been accusing each other of cheating or unfair advantages for decades but now mob perception and influence seems to be the way to get what you want.
November 22nd, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
We don't want media picking this up. I think what we'd want to happen next is for Catapult to fire the engineer who was leaking videos, and then the dominoes can fall on their own.
The truth is out there. This is about motivating other people to find it.
November 22nd, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
That's why I think a major tool should be to galvanize other fanbases who would have skin in this (e.g., PSU, Georgia). We'd instantly multiply the number of passionate eyeballs on this, and we'd gain allies that have more media sway, especially SEC teams. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Not sure how to rally those fans though, especially around what may be perceived as circumstantial data from a biased and disliked fanbase (us).
November 22nd, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
This is the way
November 22nd, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
#3 - Change your Venmo to private ASAP. Even if you only use it to pay your kids for cutting the grass.
November 22nd, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
I've never understood why anyone would want their Venmo payments public. Why do you want people to see who you are giving money to? Very confusing.
November 22nd, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
It isn't a "want to", these apps (Venmo, CashApp, etc.) DEFAULT to Public. And you need to change multiple settings in Venmo to totally close things off.
November 22nd, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
It scares me to think that going forward teams are going to weaponize staff and legal teams to covertly accuse programs of rule breaking based on flimsy evidence and hearsay in hopes media outlets pick it up and run with it
Congrats to Tony Petitti on setting this precedent
November 22nd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
This precedence is mocked by other conferences and will continue to do so because it will only hurt their bottom line. TP only set the precedence for TP.
November 22nd, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Exactly. Absolutely nailed it.
November 22nd, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
B.S. they started it and our dirt is all dug up (hopefully). We need to weaponize with everything we got. Burn the house down. If we have even the smallest amount of evidence that OSU is stealing private practice films they need to shut that whole program down and fire everyone all the way up to the school president. This is very much against the law not just some weak NCAA cost cutting rule.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
Crisis management is something in which every organizational executive should be extremely well-versed, and one of the core tenants of crisis management is getting out in front of bad news so you appear responsive and so you can remind people to separate fact from rumor. I've never seen anyone fail as badly at this as Warde did when these stories broke.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
To blame this situation on Warde is just plain dumb.
November 22nd, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Dumbest take ever.....zero knowledge of what Warde did or didn't do when working behind the scenes at the beginning of the whole mess would be the obvious strategy until you have to go public.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
If we are talking solely in terms of PR/media traction, naming specific other teams that were victimized (e.g. PSU practice footage in the hands of OSU) would seem to do the most damage. Penn State fans are happy to pile on Michigan the past month, but they have to be at least wondering now what is going on with this. Same with specific potential victims of Miami, Oklahoma, etc. Maybe people won't have much sympathy at this point for Michigan being spied by OSU, but they are always willing to wonder if their own team was cheated.
p.s. the account is up to 5700+ followers (from just over 5K) after refreshing my browser...
November 22nd, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
We are all MAnon now.
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^
The goofiness of the account makes it hard to take seriously but maybe thats part of the schtick of this alternate persona. Ill wait and see
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
It's literally the biggest reason I'm skeptical. It's written like a cartoon or comic book. Maybe that's fine, or maybe it's just me making that hard to get over and take it too seriously...yet.
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^
If a person under 25ish is running it, that's just how they communicate. Some of our annual corporate compliance training was updated this year and the entire thing was cartoons and superheroes. As if 13 year olds were the target audience instead of experienced professionals.
So fucking annoying.
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:26 AM ^
Fair point there and it is catchy and stands out
November 22nd, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
This is definitely true.
https://ktla.com/news/the-tiktok-crowd-is-learning-how-to-make-small-talk/ (this is shortened, but freely accessible, version of a good WSJ article I read a couple days ago)
(The instructor) asked to see copies of the cover letters students were using.
One began, “Hey wazzup y’all.”
Why? Because counselors had told the kids to be "friendly" in their tone.
;()
November 22nd, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
I couldn’t agree more….the older I get, the more I see grammar no longer being taught, erode the maturity of communicating….
November 22nd, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
"Maturity of communicating"
Username checks out. +1 for one of the greatest musical communicators of all time.
November 22nd, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
I think that's deliberate. The sword's going to be in to the hilt before anyone even thinks to parry the blow.
The whole thing's effing brilliant. It's got to be Kroll's idea.
Imagine you're certain, from hearsay and circumstantial evidence, that OSU's getting practice video from a mole at Catapult. You can't just dump that directly, all you've got is hearsay and circumstantial evidence. But where's the real evidence? And what do you think's happening at Catapult right now?
Chris Day's cop buddies from Podunk NH are about to find out how it works in the real world.
November 22nd, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^
That is kind of what I'm thinking. We heard UM hired 3 big firms. Law, Kroll, and PR. I assume they are all still working on this since it isn't over yet. This is either Kroll or the PR firm who has a team deciding what content to tweet out there. But they have a couple of zoomers actually writing it into over the top social media speak. It's probably just one part of larger strategy.
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
Kroll?
November 22nd, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
Kroll’s Investigations and Disputes team helps our clients stay ahead of complex demands related to independent expert analysis, testimony, advice and intelligence in complex investigations, litigation and projects globally. We help clients manage and mitigate risk throughout the business lifecycle by combining investigative experience with cutting-edge technology to deliver nuanced analysis and guidance, meaningful data insights and actionable intelligence.