October 3rd, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
It doesn’t matter. Enjoy the win. Bring on Nebraska in Lincoln at night. LFG!
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:45 PM ^
Isn’t celebrating this part of enjoying the win?
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:04 PM ^
Yes it is, but the "just win and everything will sort itself out" crowd seems incapable of actually enjoying a victory.
October 3rd, 2021 at 11:39 PM ^
I completely enjoyed the victory. I just don’t think we need to celebrate rankings at this time. It just feeds in to the trolls. Let’s focus on Nebraska. Still love this team. Feel like we got dickhead Harbaugh back and we are all better for it.
October 3rd, 2021 at 11:47 PM ^
Excited to see what you have gameplanned for Nebraska. We spying Martinez or what? Cover 1 press man, make him beat us deep?
October 4th, 2021 at 8:38 AM ^
I don't understand the "dickhead Harbaugh" comment, please explain!
Maybe you mean that he's a dickhead to the opponent, in that he's being far more aggressive than he's ever been offensively? Because, against Wisconsin, he sure as hell was! Going on 4th downs? Pooch kicking for a turn over? Throwing a flea-flicker? A halfback toss (not seen from UM in 15 years)? LMAO!!! He pulled out every trick we didn't know he had!
Otherwise, I don't get the point of that comment. He's been much better in interviews - more clear, more open, less standoff-ish. He seems to be more engaged with the players - everyone of them shook his hand/hugged him when entering the locker room after the game, and he let everyone partake in 'Jump Around' to great effect. He seems to be letting the assistant coaches go in the directions they want (I still maintain that Gattis has no power run DNA - but he's also running some more imaginative pass plays). In short, he seems WAY different - in a good way - than he was the last several years.
October 6th, 2021 at 10:40 AM ^
Aggressive Harbaugh against the opponent was exactly the point.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:15 PM ^
Do we get a trophy for it? Just keep winning and everything will take care of itself.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:10 PM ^
These comments are pointless. Like anyone here plans to stop winning at this point.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:15 PM ^
Wow is right. Interesting stats there that I won't post about until much end of regular season when it counts the most. Starting to really like this ESPN FPI index.
Beat Nebraska ! Go Blue !
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^
Does ESPN publish a rationale as to how it's calculated?
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:21 PM ^
It's behind a paywall so high not even the people who calculate it can see the formula.
October 4th, 2021 at 12:29 AM ^
They've talked about it at various times and it changes each year to better fit historical results as a predictive metric, but it's components are basically:
A preseason metric based on:
1) Recruiting
2) Recent performance (i think they incorporate like four years of history with most recent being weighted highest)
and then as the season goes on teams get an opponent adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency with the preseason element being less of a factor each game.
It works much the same way as kenpom.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
Iowa or PSU dropping next week.
If we win next week, the hype train going into and out of the bye week is going to get very very loud around the program - likely ranked in the top 4 or 5.
If we make it to East Lansing undefeated, the chips on the Sparty shoulders will be stacked sky high.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:01 PM ^
Can’t wait to read all eleventeen OP’s about who should start at QB against Sparty.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:05 PM ^
That game there would be the most hyped since what 97? We all know what happened then.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
Speaking of 1997, exactly no one thought we would go undefeated and win the NC that year.
I want Penn State to keep winning too. Judgment Day 2.0 on November 13th.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:03 PM ^
Judgement day was my favorite day of that season, with OSU game2nd and the natty Rose Bowl 3rd lol
After judgement day I stayed up all night watching espn reruns to see them all praise us, I was young lol
October 4th, 2021 at 8:47 AM ^
I was in the crowd at the Erector Set on Judgement Day. After the game, every PSU fan I encountered was gracious in defeat and stated that the Nebraska ending was bullshit and they should have lost. They were mad and sad, but gracious nonetheless - such was the beat down they took that evening!
October 4th, 2021 at 12:55 AM ^
I don't recall well enough the hype before 1997 but MSU had lost to NW the previous week to drop to #15 and probably knock the hype down a peg.
2015 was as hyped as I can remember. After Michigan lost to Utah to start the year, they rattled off five straight very impressive wins to climb to #12 and MSU was undefeated at #7. Harbaughs first season at Michigan, facing Dantonio. Major hype for a few reasons.
Don't think they've both been ranked top 10 in my lifetime. So if they're both still undefeated (decent chance) that'll be the case on Oct 30.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:39 PM ^
I haven't seen this one in a few years...
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:54 PM ^
That's not how these stats work. If both Iowa and PSU play well, then both should hold about steady in advanced stats regardless of who wins or loses.
If one plays poorly and gets paved, then yes they will drop. But if both teams play well in a competitive game, don't count on it.
October 4th, 2021 at 12:58 AM ^
Yes, and in this ranking PSU and Iowa are 11th and 12th respectively so already well behind Michigan. Seems like he's talking about the human polls which is a bit out of context, but ok.
October 4th, 2021 at 8:52 AM ^
What happens if they both play their games? I mean, Iowa does its Iowa thing - a little running, some throws to the TE, and punts from the opponent's 37 yd line, gets weird shit going their way. And PSU PSU's - can't run effectively, dinks/dunks passes, gives up long drives, gets weird shit going their way.
We, as Michigan fans, are not fully enamored with the good-ness of either team. What happens to these fancy stats when two 'top 5' teams goof their way into a boring-ass game?
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^
Looks like #5? Showing OSU above UofM as well
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:15 PM ^
Yes, we are 5th. The OP has it ranked by "playoff %" not actual FPI ranking, that's why it shows like that.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:28 PM ^
Saw that. Looks like O$U got rewarded for having figured some things out.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:25 PM ^
Yes, that's correct. Michigan is #5 in FPI but 4th in odds to make playoff. OSU is #3 in FPI but has a slightly lower percent chance to make playoff because they have a loss already, ie. have no more margin for error.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^
They are 5th. You need to sort the rankings correctly by FPI.
They are 4th if you sort the rankings by the probability of making the playoff, (edit) which is the link you included.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
Let's beat the living shit out of Nebraska! Make them feel like they were doing squats in their own cornfield, cobs up...
Fuck them, that asswipe Scott Frost and their cow tipping fan base.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:17 PM ^
LFG! Love this shit right here!
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
Let's beat the living shit out of Nebraska! Make them feel like they were doing squats in their own cornfield, cobs up...
Fuck them, that asswipe Scott Frost and their cow tipping fan base.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^
Hell yeah! Let's go beat the shit out of Nebraska...beat the shit out of Nebraska.
October 4th, 2021 at 3:55 AM ^
Cobs up eh? You've thought about this a lot I take it. Hopefully experimented too. NTTIAWWT.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
GD Double Post
Go Blue!!!
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
Michigan is 5th in FPI. You included a link that has the teams sorted by the probability of making the playoff. If you sort by FPI rank, Michigan is 5th.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:25 PM ^
Like @bofan said, they are actually 5th, not 4th. They are 4th in percent likely to make the playoff but ranked 5th.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
Opps. Didnt sort it. UM #5 in new FPI. Sorted link:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/sort/fpi.fpirank/dir/asc
Oh, and all rankings, whether it's FPI, S&P, AP, coaches poll, etc DO MATTER. Recruits follow these rankings. The CFB playoff committee follows these rankings. The quicker you can get to the top, and stay at the top, the better you chances of making the playoff. RANKINGS MATTER. Get over it. Deal with it.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:48 PM ^
Although the CFP committee is directed in their "charter", if it could be called this, to use data such as polls and what I think they called "nuanced formulas" or something to that effect, the actual directive doesn't really specify a preferred methodology. I would love to sit in on a chat, if they ever held one, about how much of the available analysis they actually employ. Given some of the people on that committee, I am sure we could fill at least three minutes.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:31 PM ^
Another good test next weekend. Onward.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:01 PM ^
Before the season began, I wouldn't have guessed Michigan could beat Wisconsin like this. Now I'm believing #3 is possible.
Michigan will move up next week after beating Neb (contain Martinez and Nebraska in virtually dead in the water) and either Iowa or Penn St losses.
Stay hungry my friends.
October 4th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
There's a pretty good chance that either Iowa or PSU will lose next week. Word is that they both play someone decent...
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:30 PM ^
FPI also gives us a greater chance of making the playoffs than winning the Big Ten East. Man, it is a brutal division of a conference.
October 4th, 2021 at 1:07 AM ^
That's interesting but makes some sense this year. Win the division and we're pretty much assured a spot. Go 11-1 and finish second in the division and there's still a decent chance.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:40 PM ^
Very Cool! Im going to allow myself the privilege of celebrating the compliment. To me it means more than a poll.
Every week, they make me believe this season will be special. I was looking at the S&P win projection at 10 games and 5th in the likely playoff birth.
October 3rd, 2021 at 11:12 PM ^
According to Brian Fremeau who does a more complicated analysis that adjusts for opponent and garbage time we were number 3 behind Alabama and Georgia before Wisconsin.
https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei/
October 4th, 2021 at 1:09 AM ^
FPI is a pretty complicated metric as well.
October 4th, 2021 at 1:28 AM ^
I'm just excited that this early in the season we are just one win away from being bowl eligible. I think we may be good enough to play with the big boys in this conference. Starting to look like a 9 or more win season is possible.