Then I realized that, holy shit, unless a Big 12 team makes the championship game there are going to be two teams who play 15 games! I'd LOVE to get to watch 15 UM games next season.
i refuse to even consider this a possibility
Then I realized that, holy shit, unless a Big 12 team makes the championship game there are going to be two teams who play 15 games! I'd LOVE to get to watch 15 UM games next season.
Michigan should have beaten PSU last year on the road. They lose their best offensive playmaker by far, and Michigan gets them at home. That game is a win to me.
On my phone so I can't edit. Rutgers is also not a very scary opponent to me. Yes it is on the road, but I think a healthy Gardner alone will be able to beat them. They kind of remind me of Indiana with a much worse offense.
what record does Hoke need to avoid the hot seat next year?
For Hoke to keep his job, M needs 7 wins with a win over OSU. 8 wins with a win over MSU. 9 wins with a win over ND.
You're asking me? Honestly 9-3 should buy him another year. 2015 is when most seem to think the team will be much better. If he goes 9-3 next year and then gets a double digit win season in 2015, he'll get an extension. If he doesn't get 18 combined wins between 2014 and 2015 then he's almost certainly gone.
If they are 7-5 he will be back.
It's pretty clear from Brandon's blog post that Hike has a virtual lifetime contract so long as they win 7 plus games per year and run a clean program. Mediocrity is the new norm
He's a Jr, and Hackenburg will be much better next year. They really don't lose a whole lot
My fault then if he isn't leaving. I thought they lost Robinson because he was a senior. Yeah, if they return him that's a much tougher game.
I am fairly certain Robinson is gone, and Hackenberg is a fine QB but without Robinson it will be interesting to see how he progresses. Plus, O'Brien is gone by all accounts; there is no reason he would be actively talking to NFL teams if he expected to be back (recruiting and all). Sso the PSU team that needed a couple of miracles to beat a crappy UM team at home, at night, isn't likely to be that much better next year.
I don't see Robinson leaving. He was great in the conference but he's not high on the draft boards from what I've seen and does not have great speed. They lose DaQuan Jones who was really good this year. They also lose an all conference guard in Urshel and their center. Hack will be improved but he doesn't have a lot of weapons around him. I think UM was the more talented team last year and we barely lost on the road on homcoming in a tough place to play, especailly as it turns to night. I don't see UM losing to PSU at home.
Robinson is getting mentioned as a 1st round pick. It would be a mistake for him to come back.
Really? I've heard second or third round pick from Kiper Jr. Where are you seeing him project as a first rounder?
Edit: I was able to find some sources that project him as a first or second rounder. I'd agree if he's a first rounder to go now, especially if O'Brien leaves. But, if he's a thrid rounder I'd come back.
If he's protected 1st or second then he should go. That's a very good spot for a receiver.
I've seen Robinson in the 1st/2nd round territory, and that will probably improve if he does well at the combines and such. Especially if O'Brien leaves, I don't see why he'd want to stick around for another transition.
Robinson is a borderline 1st round pick. His stock isn't going to get much higher. When OBrien leaves to coach the Texans, he'll be gone along with at least seven other starters. The guys in the two deep this year were very young, tons of freshmen. Those scholarship sanctions killed their depth.
That's a win. Rutgers is a win.
Can we talk about what MSU loses? Tons of defensive talent and more than half their OL. I'm still curious to see if a better HC job offer comes for Narduzzi.
hard to argue with those picks
so brutal--msu, ohio state, and nd all on the road...hoke didn't do himself any favors making this a do or die season
Bullshit!! I like Michigan to come together and run the damn table! They win the semifinal, but come up short in the championship game. Hoke gets a raise, and 5* recruits start beating down the doors of the Big House.
I love your optimism. I know I might get the almighty negbang for this, but if Al and Darrell are still in A2 by next season, I'm rioting.
The OL will get bigger, stronger, and meaner. There will be anger about how they were manhandled this year. Funchess won't drop key passes regularly, and Darboh will step in nicely. DG WILL improve, and thanks to the rage of the OL, will be a Heisman contender.
On defense, Pipkins will be back and be a rock with Poggi and Hurst contributing. Clark will finally emerge as a force and Taco will eat good. Peppers and countess will blanket people, while Dymonte and Wilson fly around like the new Sheriffs. I like our linebackers too.
Mark it down and have faith- 2014 will be a year to remember.
I was as angry last night as anybody, but after giving it some thought, I really believe this will be a great team next year. After the debacle against Nebraska at the end of the 2005 season, who would've thought the 2006 team would be that good? Our day to shine is coming......soon!
w/ losing by 7 to ND, 3 @Wisc, 3 to Minny, 4 to tOSU, and 4 to Neb. Plus the losses were to Sagarin #3, #8, #14, #24 & #27. Sagarin rated us #16.
THis year, we've lost to Sagarin #7 MSU (destroyed), #11 OSU, #26 KSU (destroyed), #28 Iowa, #50 Nebraska, and #53 PSU. Sagarin rated us #37 at the end of the regular season.
I'm sure all the prognosticators will be predicting Michigan having only 7 or 8 wins and finishing in the middle of the B1G East. Many times Michigan will finish much better when predicted to have a so so season. So, there's always hope.
Ya, I believe they were predicted to be an eight win team in 06. The fact that nobody believes in them is reason enough for me to believe in them, but I see plenty of other reasons to keep hope alive. Plenty. Enough so that no amount of "evil scheming" by Al Borges can derail them.
against maybe the worst schedule in the country? I'm sure we will hear a lot about how the players could execute better...
We will. Even if we go 15-0, coaches will harp on execution. That's the nature of coaching.
Execution is pretty much at the core of any successful operation.
App State, Utah, Northwestern and Maryland are toss-ups.
but...Akron and Uconn....
App st won 3 games this year
and they were a young team.
Maybe the latter three (though who knows about NW year-to-year), but App State is not going to shock the world twice.
ND does not scare me nearly as much even with Golston; he wasn't the reason the Irish played for the MNC, and he's already missed a year because of his academic issues. To think he'll just blow people out of the water in his second game in 2 years isn't realistic. And they'll have a new DC, so who knows how the defense will respond.
MSU will probably be a loss, but it is an older team losing some key players, and who knows how they'll handle that transition. They did go 7-6 after losing a large portion of their offense, so one never knows.
Rutgers isn't scary by any means, and while Hoke has struggled on the road let's not presume he's going o-for-the-year on the road. OSU is almost assuredly a loss, and I figure Maryland or NW will surprise them. I actually think Utah will be scary because that is a team with some athletes who have played big-name teams and won't be bothered by the travel.
Plus ND loses some high draft picks from that defense. And as you already pointed out, they'll have a new DC.
You are a sucker if you haven't penciled that "L" in already. Remember the beginning of this year, when everything was laughing about MSU's offense and lauding the fact that we had squeaked out a miracle 12-10 win against them at home in 2012? Remember how certain we were that we'd be the ones competing for a Big Ten championship?
And Hoke has yet to beat a team on the road that finished above .500. As much as I would love to believe that we will be competitive, this coaching staff had doing absolutely nothing in three years to prove that that will happen.
This year MSU's defense was so dominant it gave their offense time to get into a groove and play adequately. Next year they are going to be breaking in a new LB, two new corners, I think a safety, and at least 1 lineman. They will be worse next year, probably not immensely, but they will take a step back, and while that offense should improve somewhat I'm not sold that Cook or Terry is going to set the world on fire with their middling collection of WRs.
People freak out about the road record and for good-ish reasons, but I find it hard to believe that he is pathologically unable to win games on the road against good teams.
but better would be playing for the national title.
Losing Max Bullough will sting, and the backup MLB is a Sr.
Byron Bullough or Jon Reschke are the likely competition. Bullough (Max's brother) was slated as the #2 MLB, but he played some RB/FB. He was moved back to MLB late in the season, but not as #2. He'll be a RS soph next year, but missed out on game-time and practice experience. Reschke will be a RS freshman. So yeah, it's concerning. Whoever plays there can expect to get picked on early as a potential weak link. Ed Davis and Taiwan Jones are back on the outside, and are very good.
CB Waynes is a soph. He's back.
There are some older guys in the system, but Darian Hicks is really impressing the coaches at CB. Apparently considered pulling his redshirt, but there was hardly a need for that - outside of experience for next year.
Lewis (safety) is gone. Williamson had a great game when Lewis sat out with a minor injury. Saw a lot of experience in other games too. Cox (RS soph S) is apparently, and consistently pushing, but being held off by Drummond - for two years. So he must be a pretty good safety.
Reynolds and Hoover are off the DT rotation. Both saw plenty of action, although Hoover was out for a good part of the season. DT's Knox and Scarpinato (Jr's next year) both played well and saw a lot of action this year. Jr DT Kittridge was listed as a start before the season, but didn't play because of an injury. But he's back. MSU fans are waiting for Lawrence Thomas to blow it up on the DL. Talk of him moving outside to DE.
Both DE's are back, and Heath (backup) saw a lot of action. Lewan/Schofield were a tough matchup for Calhoun/Rush. My guess is next year they will both will make some noise vs UofM.
Lose 3-starters from the OL, sort of. One OT, and two guards. Allen (starter) and Jackson both played a lot with the interior OL. Both are good interior guys, and are back. Conklin was a steal OT. Unranked (zero stars) RS freshman and played way ahead of schedule. OT Fonoti will be hard to replace. Lots of contenders, including a JUCO from this current class. Talk of Brandon Clemons (DT) moving to OG - his natural position (4*OG, FWIW). Clark is a natural OG, but may have to play OT, as he did as a backup this year. OL should not drop of much, if at all. Likely not much better.
The skill players on O are all returing, except for WR Fowler. WR Arnett redshirted this year, and has apparently improved his play and attitude significantly. WR Burbridge was injured for much of the season, but he'll be back. Kings turned into a playmaker, and Mumphrey turned into a very reliable WR. Lippet went from Featherstone to Mr. Reliable - all back. The massive improvement of those last three guys mentions, along with Cook, and Langford too, turned the O from horrible to better than average. And that was enough. And now there's some chemistry. The OL improved too - not fair not to mention them.
Geiger is back (K), and he's good. Losing Sadler (P) will hurt a bit. Great punter, and MSU plays a D control/field position kind of game.
Cook appears to have found his game. Scares me somtimes. Takes a lot of chances with covered WR's. But no doubt he improved dramatically. No idea where his peak is, or if he already hit it.
Long post, I know.
Illinois finished 7-6 in 2011. I do believe this is the only one though.
it. Seriously though, based on how this year went with everyone thinking 9-3 or 8-4 and the both sides of the ball struggling, if Hoke doesn't make some changes, I don't see much different than this year. Not trying to be negative, but there isn't much evidence that anything will be markedly better than it was this year. No studs on the O line, the secondary still slow and weak, the Dline gets no push...
If Borges calls games the same way and the defense is swiss chees like it was this year, then I say 7-5. Minnesota is getting better and Indiana can push our defense. I just don't see a lot of change from this year.
If Hoke goes 0-3 against the rivals in 2014, then by DB's standards he should be gone after next year because he is no better than RR was. This program has been losing ground to MSU and OSU for the last three years at least and the gap is wider now than any time in the last 20 years.
No. We lost by ONE POINT to ohio this year. Say what you will, this gap is small
We lost. As you said.
No moral victories. People are happy with that because we literally predicted a score of like 40-10 OSU. The result is still the same. It's a loss.
They have beaten us 10 of 12 and have gone to 10 BCS bowls since '99.
One fluke home game in which a pathetic Michigan team put up a valiant effort but still lost is not much to base an argument on.
Durr, but we won in 2011 and they only won all those other times cause of tattoos. And Urban Meyer isnt a good coach, hes overrated, plus his offense wont work in the big ten .
But that streak goes back, as you noted, for 12 years. Trying to divine some greater theme for this coaching staff from past performance doesn't make any sense. UM is 1-2 under Hoke against OSU, with close games on both sides. Congrats on OSU's run of semi-dominance since '99. They've also only won once in the past 5 tries.
Regardless, OSU is a really good team. This shouldn't surprise anyone. But I don't see OSU running away from UM nearly as much as others seem to.
I'm not commenting on how large or small the gap is but the metric you use to determine such is margin of defeat? If so, then please tell me just how large the gap is between Michigan and Michigan State base on a 29-6 beat down.
Jeez, this is way too early but I'll play along:
Aug. 30 APPALACHIAN STATE (W)
Sept. 6 at Notre Dame (toss up)
Sept. 13 MIAMI (Ohio) (W)
Sept. 20 UTAH (toss up)
Sept. 27 MINNESOTA* (toss up)
Oct. 4 at Rutgers* (W)
Oct. 11 PENN STATE* (Toss Up) Assuming O'Brien is back
Oct. 18 Bye
Oct. 25 at Michigan State* (toss up)
Nov. 1 INDIANA* (HC) (W)
Nov. 8 at Northwestern* (W)
Nov. 15 Bye
Nov. 22 MARYLAND* (W)
Nov. 29 at Ohio State* (L)
Dec. 6 Big Ten Championship Game
With the 6 wins I have on there I'm only really confident in App State, Miami, Indiana and Maryland. That's just sad. I foresee us being a better team overall but I can't guarantee many victories after watching this season and the team and coaches deficiencies.
And OSU is an "L" but MSU isn't? Never mind that MSU is #4 in the country, just beat OSU and won the Big 10, and really won't be losing a higher proportion of their starters than we will.
Yes I think Michigan has a better chance against MSU next year than Ohio. I'm not exactly sure why but it really doesn't matter because there are so many moving parts between now and next season: transfers, players graduating or going pro, coaching changes, injuries, etc.
I think our ceiling is 10-2 if things go incredibly well. Our floor is 6-6 if things go bad. In all honesty none of us have any clue about what next year will bring because of the things I mentioned: mainly transfers, coaching changes, players leaving early for the draft.
Their offense lacks playmakers and that won't change next year. Truthfully, the key to beating MSU next year is UM getting much, much, better on the respective lines. I really believe that an UM victory has more to do with Michigan getting better than whatever MSU returns.
I know that's stating the obvious, but I cannot emphasize enough the importance of this offseason. Player and team development must be improved dramatically if this team is to do anything in 2014.
#35, #6, #2, #3. They are not going away.
All college teams go through re-growrth periods. Anyways, I didn't say that they were "going away", only that they probably will take a step back. Big difference between the two.
Um, many players on that defense ARE going away. After this year, even. Doesn't mean they'll crater, but UM's offense was once one of the mightiest in the lands before a bunch of those players left. MSU will be good next year, but unless they pull of something elite teams like Alabama haven't been able to do yet, losing over half your defensive starters is not a recipe for maintaing FEI rankings.
We lose 3. Their staff has shown they can lose players and still be elite, our defense has gotten worse and worse every year. Their defense coordinator eaten Borges's lunch for 3 straight years in RPS
And MSU hasn't lost this many top quality players in one year in some time. These seniors have played together for 3 years as starters.
You're saying seriously, this is the year that MSU's defense drops off enough that Michigan has a fighting chance? Like I said, I have been hearing this for the past 5 years now. 2014 hasn't happened yet but for the past 4 years Michigan State's defense has been as good or better than they were the year before.
Regardless, UM beating MSU depends much more on UM getting better than MSU getting worse. It doesn't matter if MSU's defense is worse if UM's offense continues to flounder. UM will still lose.
It isn't likely that MSU's defense will be as experienced or dominant as they were this year. That does not mean they won't field a very good defense. They most likely will.
Again, losing 6 starters is a big deal for any defense, especially when those players are at key positions like cornerback. MSU's defense is predictaed on those DBs being able to survive on islands against WRs. If the next guys up are even a bit worse, that throws off the whole defense and will create holes. Nobody is saying MSU is going to look like UM's defense under GERG, but teams without dominant recruiting bases don't usually keep it going after semi-massive attrition.
Hate to give MSU props, but they lose 5 starters off that D, Allen, Bullough, Dennard, Lewis, and Reynolds. Hoover was not a starter most of the year. AS far as replacements? You guys remember Ed Davis? Yeah, their backup LB to Allen was an animal against us and OSU, had 4 sacks in those 2 games.
MSU's defense, like all good defenses, is built on depth. They go 2 and 3 deep every game and keep guys fresh, it's what I hope for our defense some day. So while they lose some guys, they have experienced guys ready. Their D line is going to be stacked and better than this year. Davis steps into Allens spot at the WILL, Drummond is probably already better than Lewis and Williamson, who has already been a stud, joins him. Waynes was probably the 2nd best corner in the B1G to Darqueze Dennard this year, he'll be an All American candidate next.
Bullough is the guy they'll miss the most, but we sure thought they would take a huge step back at MLB without Greg Jones too. Overall they will take a step back on defense, but I still expect them to have the best D in the B1G.
MSU is not going anywhere, and their offense loses very little, even the 3 O linemen isn;t as bad since they rotate 8 O linemen every game. I know, pisses me off, we can't find 5 good starters and here they are rotating 8 guys extensively. We have to worry about Michigan getting better, not having MSU or OSU coming back to us.
Bullough, Dennard, Lewis, Reynolds, Jones and Hoover. That's 6.
Ed Davis played OLB a lot this year. And he was very good. No major drop off, if at all.
Hoover was out much of the season. Reynolds was not a starter until Kittredge was out for the season with an injury - and Kittredge is back. Knox and Scarpinato were basically co-starters at DT, and their true DT starter (Kittredge) is back. Again, no real drop off. They had a field day with UofM's interior.
Lewis will be replaced by Williamson. Williamson had a great game vs NW (Lewis was injured), and they tried to pick on him, but gave up after they realized we wasn't a drop off.
Dennard will be a major drop off. But so will Gallon.
Yeah, Max will be a loss - won't deny that.
If you think MSU will have a major drop off in D next year - especially vs UofM - consider how well Lewan and Schofield did against two very good DE's in Rush and Calhoun. Controlled them better than any OT combo MSU faced all year. Now, consider Calhoun and Rush vs UofM next year.
Moving Magnuson to OT from OG - well, now there's a hole on the interior OL. Who's gonna fill that? And Magnuson (sorry if misspelled) in his first year at OT will likely not be like either of the OT's you're losing. Who's the other OT? Braden? That's the real drop off when considering MSU's D vs UofM's O.
both DTs, 2 LBs and 2 DBs and their backup Mike is also a senior. On offense they lose both guards and a OT all of which are 5th year seniors. Fowler also graduates.
M loses Black, QWash, and Thomas Gordon on D. On O we lose Lewan, Schofield, and Gallon.
I bet you thought the same thing when an Auburn fan said that last year.
True but they have Malzahn and we have Hoke
Yes, the Hokesian earnest, folksy charm is really starting to look like bumbling incompetence
They're also not undefeated
Who knows how good Malzahn is. This is his first year. The success of coaches are not determined by one or two seasons, but by years and years of success. Larry Coker had great early success.Later not so much.
I have to hand it to you: you are a high caliber troll. 5-star.
Well, he's kind of right. Chizik is currently sitting at home with an MNC ring and a .500 record for his career. Not saying Malzahn hasn't done wonders, but without that Georgia miracle or Alabama's kick return, Auburn would just be another good SEC team.
call you a troll. Malzahn may very well be an all time great, but it's one year into his Auburn career. Let's give it time. That's all I'm saying.
No, you're just trying to be different (not unusual for you). You're special, we get it. No one has your insights. You're a magic man.
Malzahn has been a raging success everywhere he's went. Someone pointed out in a thread a few weeks ago that wherever he's gone has seen immediate improvement and wherever he's left has seen immediate regression. It goes far beyond "one season" at Auburn. Coaching doesn't always come down to being the HC who gets the official credit for the wins.
He's a very good coach. Its obvious to anyone whose bothered to look at the man's background.
Another good SEC team that was winless in the conference the year before. Like I said below, trying to downplay Malzahn because...why, I honestly don't know, is just eye-rolling.
but he ain't a troll in any way, shape, or form. Having opinions and defending them doesn't make anybody a troll.
That's why he's a wonderful troll. You know he's always going to take the minority opinion and bash his views into the thread with 10-50 posts, depending on how many times people respond to him.
Edit: Read the nonsense he's spewing about Sparty below this. He's a high caliber troll.
I'm thinking 9-3, one more win that I expected this year. There are still question marks at o-line, safety, receiver, and on the d-line. We have all the CBs back and add Peppers. We have all the LBs back. We lose Q-Wash and Black. I think Pipkins injury is concerning. And, the o-line situation still probably remains our biggest need.
I'm predicting a loss at ND and two more in there somewhere. But, unlike many others I think we can win both at MSU and OSU. I think MSU takes a step back losing all those seniors on defense. I think OSU takes a step back losing the offensive line, although they're still better than UM I think we can beat them in Columbus. NW loses Colter and Mark, Indiana loses a lot on offense too. I think they avenge PSU at home...finally! But, somewhere along the line they will drop 3 games, but I think they have a very good chance in all the games. I expect JMFR, Gardner, and Funchess to have big years. I expect the 2012 class to step up with big improvements from Wilson, Wormley, Ross, Kalis, Braden, Mags, and Chesson.
for fucking 5 years straight now. MSU has had one bad year in that span: 2012, in which they were still ranked #2 (!) in defensive FEI. If you think MSU's defense is going away because they lose a handful of seniors you are delusional.
Year Three they went 6-7. So 2 great seasons and two bad seasons in the past 5 years.
And what part of "#2 in defensive FEI for 2012" don't you understand? If any of their past four seasons was a fluke, it was 2012.
You said 5 years. Well, that 5 years include a 6-7 season in year three.(2009) This is Dantonio's 7th season. He has as many 5 loss or more seasons as he does 11 or more win seasons.
No one thought they'd be good that year. But for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and now 2014 (i.e. 5 years), Michigan fans have been talking smack about how we're going to run all over MSU, and yet we're 1-4 against them in that span with our single victory being a fluke home win that took a 4th and 10 miracle 20-yard pass to Dileo and a last second 45 yard field goal. Against a team with one of the worst offenses in the country in a game in which Michigan was a double digit favorite.
Face it, MSU's defense has been utterly dominant for 5 years straight now. When they had a problem on offense in 2012 and had a bad season, they fired their OC and went out and got another guy. They are now in the Rose Bowl. This is an example of a highly competent coaching staff. An example of a highly incompetent coaching staff is one that has severe offensive troubles that lead to a middling 8-5 season, does absolutely nothing to right the ship the next year, and promptly goes 7-6 and gets blown out by a crap Big 12 team.
Anyways, you have to count 2009 because it's on his record. It also is directly analogous to Hoke. In Dantonio third season MSU was similarly bad. Unfortunately for us he only had to contend with the GERG defense.
MSU's defense has not been "utterly dominant" for 5 years. It has only reach dominance the past two seasons. Before that it ranged from solid to very good. You are correct in pointing out that MSU has made changes when it needed to. Dantonio is a superb coach and he got the coach(Bollman) who fit his style perfectly.(Tressellball)
I'm not disagreeing with your overall point about MSU having a superior staff right now. But considering where MSU was in year three(where UM is now) I would refrain from gushing too much about Dantonio. He did correct the ship, but there wee definitely questions after year three with Dantonio. It remains to be seen if Hoke will do the same.
This is a big offseason for Michigan. The biggest in recent memory IMO. Unlike RR, Hoke does have the full support of the alums and AD. He has no excuses in 2014 for not having a breakout season.
Those are MSU's defensive FEI rankings in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. That is a trend towards elite-ness. And say what you want, there are absolutely no "direct analogies" in college football. Dantonio had beaten his rival 3 years in a row after 2009. Hoke has been owned by MSU and OSU the past 3 years. We barely squeaked out two home wins against them in years in which those teams went 6-7 (!)
When Michigan goes 6-7 in 2014 I'm guessing you'll be whining that Hoke had a harder schedule than Dantonio in year 4 so it doesn't count. Then in 2015 you'll mumble something about 1st year starters at quarterback. We have been playing this game for 6 years; by now, we should know how it ends.
for three years. Hoke hasn't had the same benefit.Yes, there are analogies in college football. Dantonio has had more than twice as many years to develop his program. That makes a difference.You seem to think excellence comes easy. It doesn't. It takes awhile to develop(as seen at MSU).
You seem to think I'm making excuses for Hoke. I'm not. I'm just pointing out that if you are going to compare the two compare them at similar periods in their respective careers at their respective schools. Hoke has to do much, much, better in year four and if granted it, year five.
You're the guy who keeps cherry-picking the example of Dantonio's career at MSU as absolute proof that it takes more than 3 years to become elite.
Nevermind that fact that Saban won the MNC in his 3rd year. And Meyer won it in his 2nd year. And Tressel won it in his 2nd year. And Lloyd of all people won it in his 3rd year.
The point is, all these analogies are ridiculous. It's not the fact that Hoke had an awful year three that really bothers me. It's the fact that the same problems that plagued us are the problems that plauged us in the Iowa and MSU games in 2011. Other than the initial huge uptick in defense and the kicking game in 2011, what year-to-year improvements have we seen? And what intra-season improvements have we seen? Was the team that got blown out by KSU yesterday really any better than the team that almost lost to Akron in week 3?
Yes, Hoke has the full support of David Brandon, but I'd bet that there is far more discontent with Hoke among the alumni—especially at the wealthy donor level—than you're thinking.
You're right about the importance of the offseason, but what are Hoke & Co going to do with it? Instead of spending another week with with Wellman and the Navy Seals out in San Diego, maybe they should stay in the weight room.
Has there really been any issues with people thinking the players are slow and fat? They are young and that makes it hard when you play against guys 2-3 years older who've been in a college weight system for years, but the S&C arguments always strike me as silly. Taylor Lewan and Jeremy Gallon sure seemed strong enough out there.
My experience working in a college S&C program is limited compared to a guy like Wellman, but I have spent roughly 2 years working with various college sports teams including FCS football. People vastly over-rate what the strength coach can do with any kid. Most kids don't come into a college program with very much weight training experience. Even more importantly, strength does not highly correlate to on field success in any sport, although it's probably more important at positions like offensive and defensive line. And, third, the strength staff can only moderate improve speed, agility, and quickness. There are all sorts of small improvements to general athleticism they can give an athlete. But, motor control, the ability to read, react and anticipate plays is still far and above what makes a good athlete a good athlete. This is also why combine workouts are not highly correlated to NFL success. A good 40 time, a good bench press, and a good vertical jump don't make you a good football player. Being a good football player makes you a good football player. S&C coaches can make you bigger, faster, and strong to a degree but they can't make you better football players. Experience and being good at football make you a lot faster at reading and reacting to plays than improving your 40 time, your agility on drills, or your vertical jump does.
What I saw last night and for most of the year was disgusting.
Defense has been dominant for 2 years now. Before that they were good but not near this level. I don't fucking care how many times you and the other idiot try to shout it, it won't make it true. You guys really think MSU is going to be able tyo do what no other team in college football has been able to do and sustain a top 3 defense over a long period of time. Fuck Alabama couldn't do it but somehow MSU is the new standard.
Yep, lets keep carrying on like MSU and Michigan have the same expecations. Let's pretend that two Big Ten titles and two division titles are just flukes. Lets keep pretending that MSU has the same resources and prestige that Michigan has. Lets pretend like MSU having more 11 win seasons in the past four years than Michigan has in the last 15 years is no big deal because of that season they went 7-6 in between two of them.
Its hilarious: The people who are trying to belittle MSU are actually making it obvious that they've lapped us. We're trying desperately to catch up to the little regional school while pretending we're a national program.
MSU clearly is the better program right now. They have accomplished a lot in the past 4 seasons. I cannot diminish that.Nothing they have done is a fluke. They have won titles and games by playing Manball(an offense mocked on here) and tough defense. You know, like Bo used to.
MSU is a tougher program. Michigan is soft. It is UM who has to do the catching up, not MSU.
Okay so now MSUs success isn't a fluke and that six loss season isn't the most important? Make up your mind.
fluke or that the six loss season was the most important. Inventing statements out of whole cloth is not a legitimate form of argumentation.
Again, its apparent from your tone that you believe Michigan and MSU to be the same level of football program, thus your endless downplaying of Dantonio's success, while consistently trying to bring up his failures...as if he's the coach at Michigan.
A program like MSU should see more fluctuation as they shouldn't be able to reload like Michigan or Ohio State. He's succeeding at the highest possible level for where he is. You're holding him to the Michigan standard while at the same time holding Hoke to a standard reserved for MSU.
Two titles??? When was the first one???
I think they have had some significant loses before, but I've always thought this class of seniors in the middle of that defense was the core. I think Bullough will be hard to replace especially, but add Lewis, Alan, Dennard, and three offensive lineman to that and I think they will have a down year.
One other point, I have not seen mentioned. The impact of Hokes recruiting the last 3 years in Michigan and Ohio. MSU ate Rich Rod's lunch because of spread vs power ( not on defense, I know, but even so, Hoke has owned Michigan for the last two years) There is no way this is not gonna hurt Sparty's ability to reload. Yes MSU is the better program over the past 5 years, but lets see the impact of 3 years of Hoke recruiting the same type of offense and defense.
APP St.- They suck so should be an easy W
ND- With Golson back the domers should be pretty good,combine that with our horrible play on the road L
Miami- Should be an easy W
Utah- I'll say we get the W, but I'm not that confident.
Rutgers- I'll say a W just because it's Rutgers and we aren't going to lose to Rutgers, right?
PSU- I say we get a W if O'brien leaves, but a L if he comes back. I think he's gone.
MSU- L probably isn't going to be pretty in East Lansing
Indiana- We get a W in another shootout.
Northwestern- Hey a road W
Maryland- I say we win, but we also get to watch Diggs score a couple TDs and we will all wonder what could have been.
So I guess I'm predicting an underwhelming 9-3 as long as O'Brien leaves.
9-10 wins. I think the young guys will be back with a chip on their shoulder. Our line play should improve on both sides of the ball.
Bless you sir!
Drake Harris wants it, so they might as well give it to him.
Not a bad schedule. We should go at least 9-3. Our biggest question marks are OL, DL, and safety. I'm not going to fall into the omg we have no shot we will lose every game by 50 theme.
Outside of the three biggest rivals all being on the road it does in deed seem like a fairly reasonable as far as potential victories. If we can't win on the road against teams like Rutgers then we are in more trouble then I thought. As bad as a loss at a place like Iowa seems at least they have atmosphere and tradition. They know every time they play michigan they will give it their all and then some.
this next year stuff is old already. Make or break year.
I'm sorry, did you see Rutgers play the Irish yesterday...clearly not
Have you seen UM at all this year? ND was one of two games we played decent. ALL YEAR.
15 - 0. Have some faith for gawd's sake.
Faith belongs in church, and hope is what gets gamblers in debt.
Hard, tangible results are the only thing that matter.
Don, I would be happy to give you a hug. I think you need one.
Fuck hugs. Nobody needs a goddamn hug unless they're a three-year-old who's just shit his pants. Grow the fuck up.
yep a long deep manly hug. Quit being such a sad sack of shit. Toughen the fuck up.
Somebody is grumpy and really needs a hug. Sack it up buttercup. Maybe a phone call to WTKA will cheer you up.
You have to wonder given what we saw yesterday and given what Ross and Clark said after the game.
Hope I'm wrong.
15-0 or we hire Nick Saban
I'm Nick Saban and I'm not coming.
I also hate the defeatist attitude on this board. Sack it up buttercups
Yes. Thank you! I couldn't agree more. Real fans like you and I will get to enjoy what's to come
You are what is called delusional. Only way to fix a problem is admit you have one.
Rather be delusional than a glass-half-empty sad sack who has already forfeited our 2014 schedule. Changes happen in sports, teams get better/worse than they shouldn't etc...none of us know how things will break out but I know this team has talent and they're gonna be led by Gardner and Ryan. I like our chances
Exactly. I love all of the sooth sayers on the board now. It is like all of them can tell the future. How many of you predicted jake Ryan's ACL tear? That's what I thought. There are literally thousands of variables that will affect next season's record. Sit back and enjoy the ride cause none of you can control what will happen.
Michigan is going to go 16-0. DG will win the Heisman, and so will Funchess. All of Michigan's starters will be first-team All-Americans, and half if the backups will be too. After winning the national championship, Michigan will win the Super Bowl. In 2016, Brady Hoke will be elected president...Am I a good fan now?
All the backups will be second team All-Americans.
It's as reliable as the rising sun:
the "UM football predictions as an indicator of your manhood and virility" meme, brought to you by Professor X and all the other true University of Michigan fans who never, ever predict a loss because doing so means you have sand in your vagina.
Don: What's ironic is that for all Professor X's Chuck Norris-like board mantra when it comes to picking next year's win/loss record it would seem in real life he doesnt much like the possibility of confrontations. So I guess the "sack-up" stuff only applies to the internet.
Sorry I don't drag myself down to the level of mouth breathing violent troglodytes. The world would a better place if people would just turn the other cheek.
This is tame compared to the e-wrist cutting around these parts during RR's tenure.
Fans love to bitch. Anonymous internet message boards that allow silly avatars are just the easiest way for people to complain without being taken seriously.
to the staff (which is most likely) and the results of player development remain the same, and Hoke's road record and record against ranked teams remains the same, a 7-5 seaosn is about right.
ND, MSU and OSU will be ranked and heck MInnesota might be ranked by then. Based on the horrible preparation and execution this season, I don't see any guaranteed wins except maybe App State and possibly Miami. All the rivals on the road, plus no top Olinemen returning and no pass rush...I'm scared.
Spartans lose a ton of talent. 6 or 7 on D and their 3 best O-line. That game is very winnable. Unless Borges.......
That defense is always good, and they always play great against us. So that's not any more winnable than ND or OSU.
It has been good for the past couple of years. 4 years ago it was average. I do think they'll be good next year, but let's say they are only a really good defense (top 20) instead of elite? That's a huge difference. They basically play like UM's defense in 2011, and that game changes complexion immensely. Not saying it is a given, but people are really ignoring the fact that 1/2 of those defenders on the field against Stanford won't be on that same field next year.
We should not lose a single game besides our rivals. Ohio might be winnable as they lose Hyde and their OL. I have no idea what ND or MSU will look like.
MSU loses a ton on defense. People say they just reload, but they're loading the choir they've had for three solid years. They'll take a step back. They still mostly likely beat Michigan next year though, unfortunately.
Payoff winner but lose a close one in the national championship! Hehe
Utah is definitely not a push over team. They manhandled Stanford this year, absolutely dominating them on the line of scrimmage.
I'm with you on Utah. They will be a tough game. That being said I don't know who they lose to graduation or the NFL.
Does anyone on the board have any insights into their team and where they project to be next year?
Wins: App State, Miami (OH), Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland.
Losses: @Notre Dame, @MSU, @OSU, @Rutgers
Final record 8-4, (5-3)
This is sort of my "worst yet realistic case", because I could see us splitting ND and MSU to go up to 9-3. Despite Gholston's return we've, for whatever reason, really had Notre Dame's number and probably would've won even in 2012 if it weren't for 5 INTs. MSU loses 6 or 7 off of their defense, so that becomes much more manageable, but of the two I like us over ND more than State.
Once again, we are on the outside of the BTCG game looking in and laughably far from making it into the 4 team playoff.
I was an avid RR supporter, and an avid Hoke supporter, but things are really beginning to crumble quickly. The coaches have shown virtually no indication that they even know there are significant and severe problems with this team, let alone outline a way to address those issues.
The team looks completely lost when given extra time to prepare (off the bye weeks and bowl game prep, tackle over debut against Minnesota notwithstanding).
Perhaps I'm still in a bad mood after last night's debacle, but losing 5 of our last 6 games--including some in embarrassing fashion (as in we can't even run the football forward)--has drained whatever optimism I may have had about this coaching staff.
The last time Michigan won a Big Ten championship is approaching a decade. Current 2014 targets would've been in what, 1st grade? For all intents and purposes, Michigan has been a non-factor for what they remember of their lives [except for a small blip in 2011]. I worry that we will begin to tolerate this ineptitutde and ineffectiveness, and Michigan is teetering on the edge of falling off from the current elite programs.
Obviously that can all be turned around, but 2014 is pretty much make-or-break for this staff. If we aren't hovering around 9/10 wins and at least threatening in the legends division, then so long Hoke & Co.
I actually like our chances against state and ND, I think we split those. Probably a loss at the horseshoe (ugh) and one other Iowaesque where we have an unfortunate let down game.
This schedule is a cake walk anything less than 10 wins and this entire staff should b canned. Other than MSU and OSU which team on this schedule should b a contender?? Notre dame loses a shit ton of talent on defense next season and their defense was average at best. PSU should b even worse next year with scholarship reductions regardless if obrian returns. Everyone else is a joke!
Utah will beat UM, NW has a legit shot, and PSU is becoming a serious pain in the ass.
This one is right
for sending us to East Lansing in consecutive seasons. Wtf Delaney
We will go 5-7 next year. Yay!
The hot seat thing never works. Questions over hoke and co provide far to much pressure for the team and staff to operate without duress. We will be talking future candidates by Halloween.
Also, if the Lions keep Schwartz I predict me boxing up my lions shit and deciding on a new favorite football team over summer.
Last game at Notre Dame for quite some time...and if it is at night...no chance
Lose at Sparty and OSU seems inevitable
Lose one or two of Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland
Granted, these utilize current season numbers, so numerous qualifiers as to the relative strength of this prediction apply. It is an interesting exercise all the same, and it would produce the following prediction if the schedule were played out now:
Similar to what last year's numbers would have said about this year, there are six or seven games that we would theoretically win quite nicely, with two potential close shaves and three that could possibly be called "lean loss". Again, early and no real 2014 yet, but interesting.
Of ~9.5 wins? Which seems in line - 10 wins means this fan base is mostly happy, 9 means we're lighting our torches and sharpening our pitchforks (myself included)
I guess I see your table a little different.
Six or seven we win quite nicely would have to include Minnesota (7.42) and Penn State (7.67), yet you refer to 3 games that are "lean loss" which would be Ohio State (-13.87), Michigan State (-15.54) and Notre Dame (-5.96).
Seems like someone has a strong pair of Maize and Blue colored glasses.
Given the data, there seems to be 2 absolute wins (yeah, and with this team and staff, there really is no such thing as sure or absolute, but whatever), 2 very likely wins and 2 very likely losses, 1 lean loss and 5 lean wins.
To me, that looks pretty close to 7-5.
Given the team, coaches, schedule etc., it sounds about right to me.
Pain... For us
I was terribly mistaken this season when I thought the OL would be better. Hopefully, I'm not next year.
I know the injury to Pipkens was a blow to their depth, but they didn't control the line of scrimmage on any sort of sustained basis all season.
I didn't expect much out of the OL, and unfortunately I was right.
ND, MSU, and OSU are my picks for losses. Then again, Michigan under Hoke has been competitive against ND and OSU, even on the road, so those two are also my toss up picks. We've had bad games against Meyer and Kelly, but there were still opportunities to win. Coaches and players will need to improve, though.
That MSU gets back to back home games against us?
Divisional realignment to welcome Rutgers and Maryland. Same reason we play at Northwestern again and get Minnesota at home again.
Losing to Utah and app state will be this years Akron. Next year will not be much better... Anyone else pissed?
I think Michigan ends up with 9 wins with a chance at 10 with a bowl victory. If things go their way that could be 10 regular season wins. Conversely, if things do not fall their way, we could be looking at another 7-8 win regular season.
Either way, I already want it to be next season... offseason always feels like years instead of months to me! i <3 M football.
8-4. Losses to Notre Dame, MSU and Ohio State, plus we'll drop at least one more that will be on Borges.
Say 9-3. Losses to Utah, ND, and either MSU or osu. We will beat one of those two.
Some people are greatly overestimating Utah. Yes, they beat Stanford. That's one of only 2 conference wins they had. The other was Colorado, who is horrible. A bad team losing 8 starters. That's a win.
I'm sorry, but after Akron and UConn, I won't ever make the mistake again of assuming a game is an automatic win.
I'm glad we still got a bowl game.
Behind Sparty in the East but ranked in the top 15 and Hoke gets another year - with high expectations. We beat ND or Ohio, and if it's the latter the fan base is livid.
If it's less than that he should be gone but Brandon is a wild card. He may be back anyway.
10 wins. A lot of players coming back on defense. But would like to see some coaching changes on defense. Like a new DB coach and more blitzing.
4 board meltdowns and 3 other near meltdowns.
Current par for the course.
Is by far the most accurate prediction
I have supported this staff since they arrived. I religiously drive 600 miles round trip to every home game and the spring game as well.
I have watched and re-watched several games from this season and last season as well. This staff consistently gets out coached and out schemed week in and week out. The players are not showing improvement at the rate other programs with lesser talent are showing.
I think GM may be out of gas and living on his past reputation as a great DC, his lack of finding ways to get this defense to improve and play consistent has gotten more frustrating the the disaster that we call an OC.
If DB elects to allow BH to continue and keep this staff in tact, next year and every other year they are allowed to stay will result in the same outcomes as the past two seasons.
The momentum from Hoke's first year is long gone and the program is a below average team in a weak B10.
DB needs to bring in an elite coach that can assemble an elite staff since we are now paying elite money for below average coaching.
It's pretty obvious..maybe if it were more complex they (DB) would recognize this???
If every coach returns? 8-4, with losses to Notre Dame, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State.
At worst this team will go 0 - 12. At best this team will go 12 - 0. Those are my predictions for 2014.
If we had an outstanding team, we would not face a scary opponent until OSU. None of those teams looks very good - or, rephrased, all have serious flaws. The problem is that they are all looking at Michigan as a very winnable game! After this year I cannot project any game as a win.
On the Rutgers front, they struggled as much as we did this year and they are bleeding recruits. I hope to go to that game and it is very winnable.
Go Blue. Go to hell 2013.
From what this coaching staff has shown me I don't expect us to be go any higher under Hoke & Co. And yes, they will find a way to misuse Jabrill Peppers.
We were a handful of plays away from being 11-1 this year. We were also a handful of plays away from being 4-8. But which way do these competitive games swing next year?
I genuinely expect us to be better in 2014 based on the youth of the team and Hoke's recruits populating 3 1/2 rather than 2 1/2 classes on the roster. We begin a trend upward, maybe 9-3, but probably 8-4 based on the toughness of the schedule.
From making predictions until spring. I don't want my head to explode.
Sadly, when I look at the schedule, I see there's no one on there we can't beat if we play like we did against OSU. There's a lot of talent to play with. But by the same token, there's no one on there that I can look at and say that even if Michigan plays a really bad game, we should still beat anyway. App State and Miami (OH) included. Sorry, but the memories of Akron and UConn are still very fresh in my mind, and those were two of the worst teams in recent FBS memory.
Michigan is the only team I've seen this year that actually regressed as the year went along. Every other team, even if it was a bad team, seemed to get better by season's end, even if it was just marginal improvement.
Our success next year hinges on both the O-Line and D-Line. If the O-Line can't get to at least average, and if the D-Line continues to not be able to put pressure on anyone, we're staring at another 7-8 win season. Maybe worse. Possibly even a 6-win season. At which point I'm sure everyone will be clamoring for Hoke to pack his bags.
So, right now, I don't see us being any better than 8-4 next year. Losses at MSU (again), OSU (again...shocking, I know), at ND, possibly at Rutgers, and maybe even Utah, too.
If the offensive line woes continue I don't see us doing better than 7-5. But, I see us going 10-2 in 2015 with natural progression.
There is just as much of a chance that this team is truly awful next year as there is that it wins 9 game. The primary concern is that the line, which loses both tackles, could be just as bad next year.
The bowl game looked like a coach who has lost his team. It will only take a loss or two early for this to fall apart and result in a five win season.
I figure Hoke needs 8 but probably 9 wins to keep his job. Odds of that happening are 50/50 at best. Sorry to be so negative but I watched every game this year and there are very few positives to take away from this year. All hope seems to be tied up in the Idea that we are recruiting well and these young players have talent and will improve. I just not seeing any evidence of this in the field as of yet
Does anyone really believe that the O line will improve significantly next year under the current staff?
Man, after this year I just don't know. For several years now, it seems like we really lay an egg vs some teams that we should have smoked. A few times we've even lost to some really bad teams. I just don't have a whole lot of confidence in our ability to beat anyone, let alone good teams. And I'm sorry, but if you predict a win for us against any team on the road, I think you need to have your head examined. I have never seen a team/program that was so bad on the road (except maybe the Lions of the early 2000's). If they can't prepare the team better on the road, then all of this is pointless anyway.
The QB that ND is getting back was never that spectacular, and can't do much better than Rees did this year. The only part of their game that gave us trouble was the Dline which is gone.
The big problem as I see it this year was senior leadership. That should improve next year, I hope. Look at the senior leadership during Hoke's tenure. It has gotten less and less impressive. Among the captains alone, Martin and Molk to Lewan, an injured junior, and two rotational guys is a big step down from the outside looking in.
Man, we never had it so good in the locker room as to have those 5 guys as seniors when Hoke arrived. They had been through the pits and weren't going to go through a bad senior year.
Other than Jake Ryan, who's back next year who will make a difference in the locker room?
I love Devin's toughness, but he seems too hard on himself. He'll be voted one, but would love to see the guy just go out and play for fun.
This school's had some great captains over the eyars who did it on the field and in the locker room: Cannavino, Messner, Kovacs, Long, Hart, Woodley, Navarre, Hutchinson, Brady, Jansen, etc.
Then again, when we struggled we had guys like Massey.
Soft O line 7-5
Do we not play Nebraska or Iowa?
Nope, they are no longer in our division.
This thread is such crap. It's the same shit different year. Make unreasonable predictions, team doesn't live up to them, cite reasons why we didn't, repeat. People were predicitng 9-3 this year, didn't happen. We have a much harder schedule next year and a coaching staff that can't develop players.
I predicted 7 wins and a bowl loss but that was just one mans opinion.
So what do you say next year? I think this is what everyone's thinking.
Way too many moving parts between now and next season. It really is useless to predict at this time of the year.
Why can't we take JUCO guys to bridge the gap between coaches? I know why , but it would really help out our program to get some field ready guys like almost every other program gets to do.
Russell Shaw was OK as a WR in 1996-97, when we had no WR depth.
On the other hand, we had some LB who was supposed to be good in the late 2000's but was a stiff and couldn't even start for RR's D.
Would like to have us get some guy who's completed his degree and can transfer for one season.
Key positions: WR (unless Drake Harris is a god next year), Safety, DL
I don't honestly know that Drake will even get to play much at all next year. He's about 20 pounds too light, missed a lot of his senior year, is injured and still recovering. Now, that's not to say he can't see the field, but with Darboh returning; I doubt we see him. You'll have Funchess, Butt, Chesson, and Darboh, who was supposed to a good deep threat this year. Not to mention the guys who redshirted last year, and honestly I think we see Canteen before Harris. That is just my opinion though, because Canteen's route are way more polished and he's been healthy all year.
I think we win both Rutgers and PSU (at home).
Minnesota is a toss-up to me. They are better coached (forget the loss to Syracuse, because we looked crappier in our bowl game) and have a lot of guys back from an under-rated team.
Also, think at NW is still a TOSS-UP.
If Hoke really wants to get the monkey off his back, he'll need to finally win at MSU on 10/25. I'd take losses at ND and Ohio if we won in E.L. and went 9-3 or 10-2.
Just curious but why do you feel that winning @MSU is more of a "monkey off the back" than @ND AND @OSU? We haven't beaten any of the above teams on the road under Hoke. If anything, I feel more pressure to win in South Bend (last meeting for the foreseeable future) and in Columbus (finally beating Meyer & winning in the shoe).
13-1, big ten championship, lose the bcs playoff, first round.
Drink the Kool Aid... you know you want to..
Might as well drink it now - I will have a glass with you and completely agree with you.
I see potential to be 10-2 (losses at MSU and OSU). But I also could easily see 7-5. And anywhere in between. So many variables. Does the offensive line (and thusly the running game) improve to respectability? Does another receiver step up in Gallon's absence? Can we actually stop the run vs good teams?
I say 9-3 with it possible to be as bad as 7-5 and as good as 11-1.
fired if the team can't beat Rutgers.
Maybe I look at things differently than most, but I think a B1G schedule with home and away reversed would be much tougher. Take OSU and MSU to be tough at home, then add in trips to Minny, IU, PSU, and Maryland, and it looks tougher to me. I always prefer the middling teams be the home games.
10-3 including the bowl game.
We're a 9 win max team with this staff. So with a senior qb, and an improved line we max out in 2014. Hopefully win the bowl game, that magic 10th win always makes the season feel better
10 wins or blow it up. The schedule is a joke yet with the current staff I see no mote than 8 wins.
This is what I find funny- many are saying the schedule is tough, very tough, with something like 8 wins. Then many say the schedule is cake, should be 10 wins easily. Can we first agree on if we have an easy or a tough schedule here...
The schedule actually isn't that bad if you look at it with perspective. ND looses some very good lineman to the NFL. They return a QB who sat out a year, and barely beat Michigan two years ago. MSU looses their core from the very good defenses of the last 3 years, so they'll be trying to gel. They will not be elite next year, though they should still have a tough defense. OSU is always OSU and will always be a tough game. The rest of the Big Ten is honestly not very good.
Rutgers is basically Indiana with a much worse offense, slightly better defense. Maryland is a so-so team. Minnesotta has very good coaching, not a ton of talent. Indiana sucks at defense and looses a very good WR and RB. Utah is a solid team that is well coached, but not a top 25 team. App State is terrible now. Miami(OH) is a middle of the pack MAC team. Penn State will be tough but have no depth if O'Brien returns. If O'Brien doesn't return they're probably just so-so. Northwestern looses a few key pieces and Michigan even beat them this year.
So that's everyone. Maybe two top 25 teams. Michigan State will probably end up like 20-25. OSU will be OSU. The rest are honestly not that great. So if you look at it from an outsiders view it's really not that tough of a schedule. I hate to say this, because I don't want to compare any teams. However, a Lloyd Carr team would win 10 games(no bowl included) with this schedule and probably at worst get 9 wins going into the bowl game. Honestly, everyone on the schedule next year has weaknesses and is beatable. So I would say the schedule is not very hard. But, it will be a hard schedule with the way Michigan plays on the road and some coaching issues.
Does that make sense? Not so hard schedule to be honest, but very tough games in reality for the team.
They are not middle of the pack, they are awful. I go to Miami and I'm suite mates with two football players and I heard all the in-and-outs if the horrendous job Don Treadwell did this year and I have zero faith in an OC that probably rode Brian Kelly's coat tales. Trust me that is an easy win.
Well see, then that means the schedule is even easier.
We heard about how bad sparty's OL and offense in general was going to be this season in the preseason. Some how their coaches can coach players up. Much of this is probably due to having a full supply of upper class-men ready to take over. In a couple years Michigan will be the same position, without having major youth issues and players ready to take over for those who graduate.
Well I didn't say anything about the offense, and I still said they'll be very tough. A 20-25 finish is very realistic for them.
Problem is that we bought into the hype that surrounded this team the past two seasons going into camp, and we got so overexcited and were left hanging our heads in October.
1. Thomas Rawls hype... Everyone seemed to buy into it last season
2. Denard's drastically improving accuracy
3. The talk that the offensive line was actually making strides this season
4. Defensive line... Any talk that Will Campbell was looking strong and athletic
Not saying that we should lower expectations, but this season was a recipe for failure at almost every position on the field... Offense for example, inexperienced and pitiful offensive line, mixed with QB who is fantastic but gets confidence shaken easily, along with playcaller who thinks that it's possible to either run up the gut or throw downfield every play. Not blaming the players either because I know how hard they bust their asses day in and day out. However, these coaches failed to make critical adjustments throughout the entire season when they were desperately needed. They haven't shown that they can develop any sort of talent (See Chesson, Denard, entire OL, entire DL, etc.) A bunch of these guys are running on the pure raw talent that made them 4 or 5 star recruits. Unless there is serious personnel changes this offseason, I cannot find any optimism for next season.
8-4 at best
I don't even want to think about how bad the worst could be.
The notion that this staff can't develop talent is overblown. Your examples are either extremely specific or flat out wrong (especially on the Dline). So I guess the dratics improvements from 2010 to 2011 along the line mean nothing. Frank Clark's transistion into a quality (still not great) DE from a safety is another example. What about Quinton Washington and Jibreel Black's improvements? Desmond Morgan and Jake Ryan's rise from 3 stars to very quality Big 10 linebackers show your statement to be based off nothing but your own emotions. You know why our 4 and 5 star players have seemed raw these past couple seasons? Because they are Freshman and Sophmores! They are supposed to be raw. I'll admit that a lot more needs to be proven on the offensive side of the ball especially since they need to overcome the inconsistent,questionable playcalling of Al Borges. However to say that players haven't improved would be wrong. It's clear that Gardner has upped his play since the horrible spring pratices we all witnessed in years past. Jeremy Gallon developed into one of the best recievers in Michigan history. Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield are both NFL tackles. These coaches still have a lot to prove and I'm not completely sold on their ability to take Michigan to the next level but the fact that so many people on this site are convinced that we will be horrible for the forceable future because we played like shit in the who gives a fuck bowl is the most disheartenting thing I've seen on this board in a while. They've brought in the talent and now they'll finally have upperclassman depth. If things go badly next year and we don't see significant improvement, that's the real time to worry.
Peppers plays 22 positions at once and goes off
8/31 APPALACHIAN STATE (W)
Sept. 6 at Notre Dame (L) Their QB is back
Sept. 13 MIAMI (Ohio) (W)
Sept. 20 UTAH (W)
Sept. 27 MINNESOTA* (W)
Oct. 4 at Rutgers (W)
Oct. 11 PENN STATE* (W)
Oct. 18 Bye
Oct. 25 at Michigan State* (L)
Nov. 1 INDIANA* (HC) (W)
Nov. 8 at Northwestern* (L)
Nov. 15 Bye
Nov. 22 MARYLAND* (W)
Nov. 29 at Ohio State* (L)
Dec. 6 Big Ten Championship Game Not this season, may be 2015?
I would say we'll go 8-4. Toss up games will be Rutgers, Northwestern. If we win both of these games then we'll go 9-3. If we lose both we will go 7-5. If we have a lot of injuries, then we could finish .500 and below. If we finish at .500 or below without major injuries, then it will be time to say good-bye Brady Hoke. I think 2015 will be a much better, I'm looking at 10 wins or more and with MSU and OSU at home we could run the table on those two rivals again.
Then we will end up having a season to rival RR '08 season. If you thought this blog was rough this season, Brian may have to shut down the blog mid way through next season.
Lets hope for 7-5 to 9-3 record and progress through the season on both sides of the ball!
Dog: Me trying to enjoy Michigan football this season and next season.
This team is great. Look how much money they made. Face it folks, it's a business now, not a sport anymore. Only thing that matters is $$$$. As long as suckers shell out more money to fill that stadium, why would anything change? Football-wise the program is now second-rate, lower half of the Big 14.
Yes. It seems to be all about $$$ and entertainment (piped in music at BH). The problem is that few of the real fans were entertained by our poor performance over all this year especially against our rivals. In the last 6 years we are 2-10 against MSU and OSU combined. Sad.
I want to be optimistic, but I saw nothing in the way of progress or improvement this year (some minor improvements here and there, but mostly regression overall). So... I'm not writing off App State as a win. Yes, they stink.... so did Akron, UConn, etc... and we saw how close those games were. I mean seriously what does it say about the state of the program when we start questioning our ability to win against Utah, App State, Minny, IU, NW, Rutgers, etc...
We'll probably end up somewhere in the 8-4 range (+/- 1 game), but the season could still tank by our standards if trends don't get turned around (no running game, swiss cheese defense, etc...)
Notre Dame doesn't really scare me that much. They'll be rebuilding a lot of their team (OL and DL specifically), and Golson was pretty mediocre two years ago. Who knows how much progression he has made during the past year. It's on the road, so we could easily lose, but I'd put it firmly in the toss-up category.
Rutgers should be a win. Hoke hasn't been good on the road, but he has beaten bad teams like Northwestern and Minnesota in road games, and Rutgers is a pretty bad team.
Penn State I think should be a win, as they continue to suffer from the sanctions by lacking a signficant upperclass contingent. Plus, with it looking like O'Brien might be out the door, who knows what happens to the current roster or who they manage to hire.
I do agree that, as of right now, MSU and OSU are pretty likely losses, though if Braxton makes the (stupid) decision to go pro, things could get interesting on offense for OSU.
We *should* be 10-2 next year, and if it's anything less than 9-3 (barring significant injuries), I think it'd be time to seriously look at the future of the coaching staff.
Here is my prediction:
L (and I'm really not too convinced we're going to beat the buckeyes again anytime soon)
Well, Ohio State use to have a guy the referred to as Ole' 8-3 Earl.
I think we have 7-5 Hoke. Well, I hope that Michigan can get to 7 wins next year.
Hoke's first year was an abberation, and no, not because he had Carr's seniors.
With a run game and a pass rush, anything is possible.
Just need to find those somewhere......
I will open with a prediction of 6-6. This season has been terrible and I can find little reason for optimism, NSD will pump me up and I will revise my prediction to 7-5. All of the good news out if spring practice will improve my expectations and my prediction will change to 8-4.
Not much will happen over the early summer. Even still, I will suddenly feel better about the team and my prediction will change to 9-3. The feel good stories out of preseason practice and season preview articles will see my prediction climb to 11-1. By the time we beat ND in unlikely fashion, I will be convinced of a 12-0 season and will have thoughts of a national championship. Then my soul will be crushed week by week. Isn't that the way it works now?
Good: No Wisconsin or Nebraska
Bad: No Illinois, Iowa or Purdon't
In short, shittiest schedule ever created.
|Date||Opponent||2013 Wins||2013 Losses||2014 Prediction|
|Aug. 30||APPALACHIAN STATE||4||8||W|
|Sept. 6||at Notre Dame||9||4||L|
|Sept. 13||MIAMI (Ohio)||0||12||W|
|Oct. 4||at Rutgers*||6||7||W|
|Oct. 11||PENN STATE*||7||5||W|
|Oct. 25||at Michigan State*||13||1||L|
|Nov. 1||INDIANA* (HC)||5||7||W|
|Nov. 8||at Northwestern*||5||7||W|
|Nov. 29||at Ohio State*||12||1||L|
I think the Minnesota and Indiana games are going to be very tough wins.
Barring an actual losing season Hoke's job is safe through the end of 2015. He is not on the hot seat with the folks who matter. Statements about heat from the big contributing alums would be more believeable it there were some actual evidence. Most wealthy alums have life experience that involves success in difficult circumstances and have developed the quality of patience.
As others have said it is far to early to predict the outcome of the 2014 season. However there are a couple of things that support an expectation for a better season.
Offensive line blocking needs only to make a modest improvement for both the passing and running game to improve, and with a year of experience and an off season to apply what they've learned modest improvement certainly seems within reach. Borges, much as he is reviled by so many of you, has demonstrated that, with only modest improvements in the coordinated play of the offense, he can call a game that generates plenty of points.
Similarly, Mattison has demonstrated a pretty compelling ability to shore up a defense even when there are holes in his roster. With so many players returning who will also have an entire offseason to apply their experience to their play, modest improvement also seems reasonable.
The record in 2014 as in 2013 will again depend on the play of the oline and to a somewhat lesser extent the play of the dline. Prediction at this time: 7+ wins. Revision to come in August 2014.