Too early prediction for next year

Submitted by massblue on

Here is the schedule and predictions

Aug. 30 APPALACHIAN STATE  (W)
Sept. 6 at Notre Dame  (L) Their QB is back
Sept. 13 MIAMI (Ohio)   (W)
Sept. 20 UTAH  (W)
Sept. 27 MINNESOTA* (W)
Oct. 4 at Rutgers*  (Toss Up) Hoke has not shown it can win on the road
Oct. 11 PENN STATE*  (Toss Up) Assuming O'Brien is back
Oct. 18 Bye
Oct. 25 at Michigan State* (L)
Nov. 1 INDIANA* (HC) (W)
Nov. 8 at Northwestern*  (W) Lose QB and key players
Nov. 15 Bye
Nov. 22 MARYLAND* (W) 
Nov. 29 at Ohio State* (L)
Dec. 6 Big Ten Championship Game

7 W

3  L

2 Toss Ups

 

With some good breaks we could be 9-3 and with some bad breaks we could be 7-5 again

Soulfire21

December 29th, 2013 at 7:19 PM ^

Wins:  App State, Miami (OH), Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland.

Losses: @Notre Dame, @MSU, @OSU, @Rutgers

Final record 8-4, (5-3)

This is sort of my "worst yet realistic case", because I could see us splitting ND and MSU to go up to 9-3.  Despite Gholston's return we've, for whatever reason, really had Notre Dame's number and probably would've won even in 2012 if it weren't for 5 INTs.  MSU loses 6 or 7 off of their defense, so that becomes much more manageable, but of the two I like us over ND more than State.

=======

Once again, we are on the outside of the BTCG game looking in and laughably far from making it into the 4 team playoff.

I was an avid RR supporter, and an avid Hoke supporter, but things are really beginning to crumble quickly.  The coaches have shown virtually no indication that they even know there are significant and severe problems with this team, let alone outline a way to address those issues. 

The team looks completely lost when given extra time to prepare (off the bye weeks and bowl game prep, tackle over debut against Minnesota notwithstanding).

Perhaps I'm still in a bad mood after last night's debacle, but losing 5 of our last 6 games--including some in embarrassing fashion (as in we can't even run the football forward)--has drained whatever optimism I may have had about this coaching staff.

The last time Michigan won a Big Ten championship is approaching a decade.  Current 2014 targets would've been in what, 1st grade?  For all intents and purposes, Michigan has been a non-factor for what they remember of their lives [except for a small blip in 2011].  I worry that we will begin to tolerate this ineptitutde and ineffectiveness, and Michigan is teetering on the edge of falling off from the current elite programs.

Obviously that can all be turned around, but 2014 is pretty much make-or-break for this staff.  If we aren't hovering around 9/10 wins and at least threatening in the legends division, then so long Hoke & Co.

reshp1

December 29th, 2013 at 7:16 PM ^

9-3
I actually like our chances against state and ND, I think we split those. Probably a loss at the horseshoe (ugh) and one other Iowaesque where we have an unfortunate let down game.

goblue16

December 29th, 2013 at 7:18 PM ^

This schedule is a cake walk anything less than 10 wins and this entire staff should b canned. Other than MSU and OSU which team on this schedule should b a contender?? Notre dame loses a shit ton of talent on defense next season and their defense was average at best. PSU should b even worse next year with scholarship reductions regardless if obrian returns. Everyone else is a joke!

MGoPietrowski

December 29th, 2013 at 7:26 PM ^

The hot seat thing never works. Questions over hoke and co provide far to much pressure for the team and staff to operate without duress. We will be talking future candidates by Halloween.



Also, if the Lions keep Schwartz I predict me boxing up my lions shit and deciding on a new favorite football team over summer.

titanfan11

December 29th, 2013 at 7:26 PM ^

Last game at Notre Dame for quite some time...and if it is at night...no chance

Lose at Sparty and OSU seems inevitable

Lose one or two of Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland

LSAClassOf2000

December 29th, 2013 at 7:29 PM ^

Granted, these utilize current season numbers, so numerous qualifiers as to the relative strength of this prediction apply. It is an interesting exercise all the same, and it would produce the following prediction if the schedule were played out now:

  Michigan Opponent HFA Result
App. St. 77.56 46.67 3.54 34.43
at ND 77.56 79.98 3.54 -5.96
Miami (OH) 77.56 36.95 3.54 44.15
Utah 77.56 78.74 3.54 2.36
Minnesota 77.56 73.68 3.54 7.42
at Rutgers 77.56 61.61 3.54 12.41
PSU 77.56 73.43 3.54 7.67
at MSU 77.56 89.56 3.54 -15.54
Indiana 77.56 72.7 3.54 8.4
at Northwestern 77.56 70.58 3.54 3.44
Maryland 77.56 69.04 3.54 12.06
at OSU 77.56 87.89 3.54 -13.87

Similar to what last year's numbers would have said about this year, there are six or seven games that we would theoretically win quite nicely, with two potential close shaves and three that could possibly be called "lean loss". Again, early and no real 2014 yet, but interesting. 

Blue Durham

December 30th, 2013 at 2:58 PM ^

I guess I see your table a little different.

Six or seven we win quite nicely would have to include Minnesota (7.42) and Penn State (7.67), yet you refer to 3 games that are "lean loss" which would be Ohio State (-13.87), Michigan State (-15.54) and Notre Dame (-5.96).

Seems like someone has a strong pair of Maize and Blue colored glasses.

Given the data, there seems to be 2 absolute wins (yeah, and with this team and staff, there really is no such thing as sure or absolute, but whatever), 2 very likely wins and 2 very likely losses, 1 lean loss and 5 lean wins.

To me, that looks pretty close to 7-5.

Given the team, coaches, schedule etc., it sounds about right to me.

Spunky

December 29th, 2013 at 7:40 PM ^

ND, MSU, and OSU are my picks for losses. Then again, Michigan under Hoke has been competitive against ND and OSU, even on the road, so those two are also my toss up picks. We've had bad games against Meyer and Kelly, but there were still opportunities to win. Coaches and players will need to improve, though.

1of12MattDamons

December 29th, 2013 at 7:46 PM ^

I think Michigan ends up with 9 wins with a chance at 10 with a bowl victory. If things go their way that could be 10 regular season wins. Conversely, if things do not fall their way, we could be looking at another 7-8 win regular season. 

Either way, I already want it to be next season... offseason always feels like years instead of months to me! i <3 M football.

westwardwolverine

December 29th, 2013 at 7:48 PM ^

8-4. Losses to Notre Dame, MSU and Ohio State, plus we'll drop at least one more that will be on Borges. 

Jay-Z

December 29th, 2013 at 7:51 PM ^

Or fire hoke. Hoke should honestly be fired this year. I was at the bowl game last nite. Completely out coached by bill synder. You can tell by the players body language that this team has no respect for Hoke. They have zero desperation and purpose while they play. Hoke has lost the team. The only player I felt that was involved in the game was Mike Mcray and he never played.

jethro34

December 29th, 2013 at 8:06 PM ^

Some people are greatly overestimating Utah. Yes, they beat Stanford. That's one of only 2 conference wins they had. The other was Colorado, who is horrible. A bad team losing 8 starters. That's a win.

Vasav

December 29th, 2013 at 8:12 PM ^

Behind Sparty in the East but ranked in the top 15 and Hoke gets another year - with high expectations. We beat ND or Ohio, and if it's the latter the fan base is livid.



If it's less than that he should be gone but Brandon is a wild card. He may be back anyway.

tzwolverine

December 29th, 2013 at 8:21 PM ^

I have supported this staff since they arrived. I religiously drive 600 miles round trip to every home game and the spring game as well.

I have watched and re-watched several games from this season and last season as well. This staff consistently gets out coached and out schemed week in and week out. The players are not showing improvement at the rate other programs with lesser talent are showing.

I think GM may be out of gas and living on his past reputation as a great DC, his lack of finding ways to get this defense to improve and play consistent has gotten more frustrating the the disaster that we call an OC.

If DB elects to allow BH to continue and keep this staff in tact, next year and every other year they are allowed to stay will result in the same outcomes as the past two seasons.

The momentum from Hoke's first year is long gone and the program is a below average team in a weak B10.

DB needs to bring in an elite coach that can assemble an elite staff since we are now paying elite money for below average coaching.

dj89

December 29th, 2013 at 8:46 PM ^

If we had an outstanding team, we would not face a scary opponent until OSU. None of those teams looks very good - or, rephrased, all have serious flaws. The problem is that they are all looking at Michigan as a very winnable game! After this year I cannot project any game as a win.

On the Rutgers front, they struggled as much as we did this year and they are bleeding recruits. I hope to go to that game and it is very winnable.

Go Blue. Go to hell 2013.

GoDamnBlue

December 29th, 2013 at 8:48 PM ^

From what this coaching staff has shown me I don't expect us to be go any higher under Hoke & Co. And yes, they will find a way to misuse Jabrill Peppers. 

Cold War

December 29th, 2013 at 8:48 PM ^

We were a handful of plays away from being 11-1 this year. We were also a handful of plays away from being 4-8. But which way do these competitive games swing next year?

I genuinely expect us to be better in 2014 based on the youth of the team and Hoke's recruits populating 3 1/2 rather than 2 1/2 classes on the roster. We begin a trend upward, maybe 9-3, but probably 8-4 based on the toughness of the schedule.

Perkis-Size Me

December 29th, 2013 at 8:57 PM ^

Sadly, when I look at the schedule, I see there's no one on there we can't beat if we play like we did against OSU. There's a lot of talent to play with. But by the same token, there's no one on there that I can look at and say that even if Michigan plays a really bad game, we should still beat anyway. App State and Miami (OH) included. Sorry, but the memories of Akron and UConn are still very fresh in my mind, and those were two of the worst teams in recent FBS memory.

Michigan is the only team I've seen this year that actually regressed as the year went along. Every other team, even if it was a bad team, seemed to get better by season's end, even if it was just marginal improvement.

Our success next year hinges on both the O-Line and D-Line. If the O-Line can't get to at least average, and if the D-Line continues to not be able to put pressure on anyone, we're staring at another 7-8 win season. Maybe worse. Possibly even a 6-win season. At which point I'm sure everyone will be clamoring for Hoke to pack his bags.

So, right now, I don't see us being any better than 8-4 next year. Losses at MSU (again), OSU (again...shocking, I know), at ND, possibly at Rutgers, and maybe even Utah, too.

ndscott50

December 29th, 2013 at 9:13 PM ^

There is just as much of a chance that this team is truly awful next year as there is that it wins 9 game. The primary concern is that the line, which loses both tackles, could be just as bad next year.



The bowl game looked like a coach who has lost his team. It will only take a loss or two early for this to fall apart and result in a five win season.



I figure Hoke needs 8 but probably 9 wins to keep his job. Odds of that happening are 50/50 at best. Sorry to be so negative but I watched every game this year and there are very few positives to take away from this year. All hope seems to be tied up in the Idea that we are recruiting well and these young players have talent and will improve. I just not seeing any evidence of this in the field as of yet



Does anyone really believe that the O line will improve significantly next year under the current staff?

bigfan2959

December 30th, 2013 at 2:17 AM ^

I don't think Hoke is as close to getting fired as you do.  Hoke stays next year with 6 wins, maybe even 5.  Sad to say but I don't think Brandon is pulling the trigger on him like he did on Rich Rod, who was not his guy and an outsider.  It is a little interesting that the more Hoke has played his guys, the worse his records have been.  It will be interesting to watch how Arizona does over the next two years in what I think is a harder conference compared to Michigan.