Thought experiment: $100M to spend over 10 years

Submitted by jaggs on November 19th, 2021 at 3:35 PM

I had an interesting thought when I heard about Tucker's potential extension (have you heard!?!?). Presumably almost the entirety of this contract will be paid by deep pocketed boosters/Alums.

In my scenario, Tucker (or another coach) is paid a still very competitive $5M/year, with the booster putting the additional $5M/year toward NIL payments toward athletes. This works out to almost $60k/year, $5k/month per scholarship in football. This would have to be INCREDIBLY attractive to many athletes, you'd have to believe that the talent level would increase DRASTICALLY.

My question: Would it not be easier to win with a $5M/year NIL budget for talent and a good coach that could be easier to replace if necessary? Seems like this would also attract top coaching candidates knowing they have this HUGE edge in acquiring players. 

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treetown

November 19th, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^

To many fans, Peanuts did not age well especially near the end. But the phenomenal success of Peanuts and the canny ability to reap merchandising opportunities, animation and other media (plays, musicals, etc.) made it possible for later creators like Bill Watterson to develop. Peanuts made it possible to appear in over 1000 newspapers back when people read papers everyday.

To Watterson's lasting credit, he refused to exploit Calvin and Hobbes and there are literally only a handful of legitimate pieces of merchandise (outside of the book collection), and he retired on top before he got stale and started mining his own catalog for idea. Lee Salem, who edited cartoons for Universal Press Syndicate estimated Watterson turned a chance at $300-400 million.

With the decline in papers, Calvin and Hobbes probably will be the last great large scale syndicated strip. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Salem_(editor)

https://bigthink.com/culture-religion/what-is-the-legacy-of-calvin-and-hobbes/

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DHughes5218

November 19th, 2021 at 10:34 PM ^

I live about 20-30 minutes north of Columbus and I almost always wear a Michigan hat, hoodie, or jacket when I run errands. Today while I was pushing a shopping cart to the corral thing, someone yelled “Michigan Sucks”. In the 90’s and early 00’s it was a common occurrence but it’s been years since a random nut yelled something at me. I’m not going to lie, it felt pretty good because it showed me that they’re a little insecure right now and they know what lies ahead of them. I just need someone to steal my flag from my porch and victory will be guaranteed.

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TheJoker

November 19th, 2021 at 3:42 PM ^

Truth is, nobody knows.

Is he a good coach who is making the most his talent? Maybe

Is he a coach who got lucky with the transfer portal and abused it to the point where they implemented a rule because of him? Probably

Can he keep this up? Who the hell knows

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Newton Gimmick

November 19th, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^

Bruce Feldman said something interesting -- that the exorbitance of the Tucker extension makes it a "splash" hire LSU can sell to their fans after they miss out on Jimbo and Lincoln and hire a .500-ish coach.

IDK if there's anything to that.  But it would be pretty damn funny to see Tucker leave in Saban-esque fashion

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gbdub

November 19th, 2021 at 3:54 PM ^

Give a big chunk to Scott Frost to be the OC, on the condition that he lives in the press box during the season and his mom is not allowed in the state or on social media.

/s

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M-GO-Beek

November 19th, 2021 at 5:10 PM ^

I agree this is an interesting thought experiment. Not sure why the people are posting to talk about other things. This doesn't have to specifically be about MSU, could be any 10 year 100 mil coach.

I think part of the trouble will be in the "guaranteed" part of the deal that would be needed to sell recruits.  Rich donors tend to stay rich, but that isn't always true. Similarly, assuming the donor handed over the money now, to be dispersed over the 10 years (to be certain the school can fulfill the contract), the donor may not be excited to pony up the funds for the next 10 years once the first 10 are over.

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blue in dc

November 19th, 2021 at 6:36 PM ^

It seems like you would almost be guaranteeing the need to replace your head coach if the strategy was successful.   If you were a major power 5 school and the coach did well, the market rate for said coach would likely be more than $5 million.   It also seems likely that the transition would coat you, and even a willingness to pay more than $5 million is not a guarantee that your coach will be good.

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Bo Harbaugh

November 19th, 2021 at 7:03 PM ^

It's a regional program and not a destination job, no matter what any of their current or past coaches say. He was gone if not for a major intervention/injection of $$$.

Tucker is the hot name right now due to a flukish year in win-loss record, successful and clever usage of the transfer portal due to a one time rule change in the anomaly of a year (Covid), and being a Saban disciple who uses words like process as well as his own tough guy cliches around boxing, body blows, etc. 

Add in the 2 wins over UM, (MSU's annual Super Bowl) regardless of circumstances (Covid year, officiating, etc), and you have the perfect convergence of factors for a guy getting an absurd contract.

Congrats to Mel and his agent, however, as managing to pull off the 2nd highest contract in college football with a 15-13 career record (compared to the highest paid coach who has 7 National titles - Saban), is an absolute coup and may very likely go down to rival Charlie Weiss as the worst contract ever dished out by a CFB program.

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XtremeUMich

November 19th, 2021 at 7:26 PM ^

This is a school that can't pay dining hall staff! Maybe they should reset their priorities first. Their athletic department is $30 million dollars short, and had to cancels men's and women's swimming and diving; The optics on this are absolutely terrible.

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Psalm1611

November 19th, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^

I agree with the premise of the OP.  Over time, you would think money should be redirected to the players from other parts of the college football value chain (e.g., coaches, facilities), because it is a much more direct way for donors to achieve their goal of improving the product on the field.  Could mean the Tucker contract does not age well.

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Sambojangles

November 19th, 2021 at 11:25 PM ^

Big Ten schools have plenty of money. If I had $100M to spend, I would spend it all on elevating Notre Dame College, outside of Cleveland, to D-1 FBS. Sure, they only have 2100 students, only been co-ed since 2001 (it was a women's college before that) and only in NCAA since 2012. But think of how annoyed the other Notre Dame would be. 

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