Is there a path
We all know what happens when OSU beats sparty but what if the Spartans win? Is it conceivable that if Michigan beats OSU perhaps in similar or more comfortable fashion, Spartans go to B10CG and lose. Does this get one loss Michigan into the Playoff.
November 15th, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^
100%. This is not even a question. Of course, we would need Utah to beat Oregon. It would also help if Cincinnati were upset, but yes, there is a path. FYI, Utah is favored by 3 vs. Oregon this weekend.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
Not only this weekend but Oregon would have to beat Utah a second time in the Pac 12 championship game.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
Why would Oregon have to beat Utah a 2nd time if they lose to them the first time? Utah has 3 losses already with an exactly 0% chance of making the playoffs.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
Utah’s conference record is 6-1. Utah leads its division.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:34 PM ^
Utah has two out of conference losses. They own all of the head to head tiebreakers in the South as their only conference loss is to Oregon State in the North. Even if they lose on Saturday to Oregon, they will win the South with a win against Colorado or any ASU loss. ASU has a tough game at Oregon State this Saturday.
As mentioned higher in the thread Vegas has Oregon as a 3pt dog at Utah so it's not out of the question for Utah to win one of the likely matchups with Oregon.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:00 PM ^
Overall. Overall losses aren’t what determines division champs. Conference losses do that. Utah has 1 conference loss, fewest in their division, and holds the tie breaker with the 2nd place team.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:38 PM ^
This thread has everything to do with the playoffs, it has nothing to do with winning the most prestigious Pac12 championship.
November 15th, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^
Nice comment edit above lol. They were talking about from Oregon's perspective in that they have to beat a solidly ok to decent Utah team twice in 3 weeks to stay in the playoff. Even if they win this weekend they have to turn around and do it again quickly. Not the easiest thing to do.
November 16th, 2021 at 5:06 AM ^
You edited your comment, bud. This was about Oregon having to beat Utah twice to stay in the CFP mix. It’s not about Utah being in the mix, it’s about Oregon staying a 1 loss team.
November 15th, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
I know Utah has no shot. I'm saying Oregon has to win out to stay in the playoff because there's no way the committee is looking at them if they have a second loss. You'd have to be in the SEC to get a mulligan like that.
November 15th, 2021 at 9:15 PM ^
? see my first comment about Oregon losing - c’mon guy! I clarified my first comment because you seemed to have missed the hypothetical I presented that Oregon would need to lose to Utah (or someone). It doesn’t matter when Oregon takes the L to Utah. Once Oregon loses the second time, they gone and the PAC12 title game means nothing to the playoff. All of this debate over a ridiculously unlikely scenario, and yet we get in the weeds over Utah’s conference record: this poor thread was destined to fail. It has failed early and often.
November 15th, 2021 at 9:17 PM ^
Double post - so much debate about Utah’s record and conference record.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:00 PM ^
11-1 non-champion Michigan is like sixth right now in reality.
Worry about it if we beat OSU.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:22 PM ^
Michigan is sixth right now as is. Michigan beats osu, I'd say we are fifth.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:35 PM ^
Stuff will get shuffled around because the rankings are not actually the rankings. Realistic rankings are:
1. Undefeated or 1 loss SEC champion
2. 1 loss Big 10 champion
3. 1 loss Oregon
4. Non-SEC Champion Georgia
5. Undefeated Cinci
6. 11-1 non-champion Michigan
7. 11-1 Notre Dame
8. 12-1 Big 12 Champion
9. 2 loss SEC Champion
10. 2 loss Big Ten Champion
November 15th, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
I like the look of this. Where do you see 2 loss Alabama? Out of it?
November 15th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
My hope is I'm right and they're out, but wouldn't shock me if they were anywhere from 6-11 realistically.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
I think it’s this but undefeated Cinci stays 5th no matter what.
Committee will make ND or 2 loss Alabama jump them if they have to.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:59 PM ^
Cincy beat ND, so if Cincy stays undefeated, they're in.
November 15th, 2021 at 10:09 PM ^
Obviously that logic should hold, but this thing is a cartel.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
In his scenario there is no 1 loss B1G champion. In your rankings, you have two B1G champs and two SEC champs.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
11-1 Michigan would get in over Cincinnati.
They already have OSU ranked higher with 1-loss. Michigan’s final 3 games vs Cincinnati’s wouldn’t even be a comparison.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:46 AM ^
I don't think you read the question. There is no one loss Big 10 champion because Ohio State would have three loses and Sparty would have two losses. You also put a two loss Alabama team ahead of Michigan. I understand what will happen if there is a one loss Big 10 champion even if Michigan only has one loss.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
If Michigan beats a 4th ranked OSU we might even vault into 3rd (we'd move ahead of them and Oregon and probably Cinci).
The rub is that if MSU beats OSU, that means a win over OSU wouldn't be a top 4 win. We'd be beating a top 9-10ish OSU team which means we'd need 2 of the following 3 to happen:
1. MSU has to lose again (and thats likely as they'd still have PSU and Wisconsin, and if it's PSU they lose to, the below is once again moot, M would be playing for the playoffs in Indy).
2. Oregon to lose (ESPN gives this an 86% chance)
3. Cinci to lose (ESPN says 50/50)
Might also need the Big12 champ to have two loses.
If it's the latter two it's likely that both Michigan and MSU make it as the 3 and 4 seeds.
The real wildcard, IMO, is what the committee does with Alabama if they lose a close one to Georgia. It'd be reasonable to say, yeah, we still think they're the number two team. A lot of people think 2 losses automatically would disqualify them but I don't know how losing to the number 1 team says anything other than, you're not the #1 team. And if it's close, you can definitely argue you're still probably the #2 team (and all their metrics will still be #2).
November 15th, 2021 at 6:27 PM ^
The thing is, here's Alabama's wins in approximate order of impressiveness:
Mississippi (unquestionably good)
Is Tennessee the second best team they've played? Or is it
Mississippi State (because blowout)
LSU (Almost blew this one)
Miami (YTM) (Really?)
Florida (Almost lost to these guys!)
Southern Miss
New Mexico State
Mercer (real tough non-conference scheduling, at least find like, a Sun Belt team)
If they're 11-2 with losses to Georgia and A&M they don't have the resume elsewhere to make up for it. And frankly the committee putting them #2 right now is kind of a joke in terms of on field results.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:06 PM ^
It's the nature of the wins that's impressive. They crushed a very good Ole Miss team. They demolished a good Miss St team on the road and handily beat a solid Tennessee team. These are 21, 40 (!!), 28 point wins, respectively while teams like Oregon and Cinci are struggling with bad teams.
That's why they have the #2 Strength of Record and #2 Game Control rankings which the committee values quite a bit. A close loss to UGA wouldn't change those much so there could be a chance they're left in the top 4 (given they'd be adding a win over Auburn). If they're justifying a #2 ranking now, the committee could easily be justified leaving them in the top 4, especially if teams behind them now like Oregon are likely to lose.
An 11-2 Bama would be ahead of a two loss Big12 champ (and maybe even a one loss OU), a one loss Cinci, a two loss Oregon and a one loss ND. And enough of those scenarios are likely to happen to keep them in top 4.
I do think an 11-1 Michigan would be ahead of 11-2 Bama if Michigan somehow beat OSU but didn't win the division. But I also fully expect Oregon and Ok St. and Wake to lose again. So in that scenario the top four could look like this: 1. UGA 2. Michigan 3. Cinci 4. Bama
What a great draw that would be. If there are any other one-loss champs except maybe OU because the committee clearly wasn't impressed with them even without a loss, so Ok St. Wake they'd be the #4 over Bama in these scenarios. Oregon winning out would be #2 with the others bumping down one.
November 15th, 2021 at 8:34 PM ^
If we're making this argument shouldn't almost losing to garbage Florida and LSU teams count heavily against them?
November 16th, 2021 at 1:46 AM ^
Well, those teams aren't garbage, per se. They both may be having disappointing seasons, but Florida is 5-5 and ranked #22 in FPI, #25 in Sagarin's predictor and top 25ish in all the predictive metrics that are indicative off quality (and hence difficulty). Florida crushed a truly garbage South Florida team that Cinci was only up on by 10 entering the fourth quarter.
LSU is ranked 24 is Sagarin's predictor and 33rd in FPI with wins over Miss St. and Florida.
Winning close games against them is not nearly as bad as the teams Cinci and Oregon and OU and ND are struggling with. Especially on balance with all the impressive wins.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:00 PM ^
There is no doubt in my mind that if Michigan beats OSU and MSU lost in the B1G CG, Michigan would be in.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:04 PM ^
Which is kind of wild because then... the B10 champion (let's say... Wisconsin because why not) would not get in, the B10 runner-up would not get in... and the 3rd place team would.
Really goes to show that the current east-west split is a bad system.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:20 PM ^
This is very much akin to what happened in 2017. 2-loss Big 10 champ Penn State didn't get in but East-runner-up Ohio State, who lost to Penn State but "beat" UM did.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:22 PM ^
The divisions are going to be messed up where ever Ohio State is placed. That division is basically doomed. As with the Legends/Leaders Divisions, you can't have Michigan playing Ohio State every year and then having division rivals only playing Ohio State on a rotational basis.
November 15th, 2021 at 10:49 PM ^
Is there a good reason to still have divisions? I’m curious if anything prevents the big ten from doing what the big 12 does and just send the top 2 to the championship game. It’s pretty clear that by protecting rivalries there’s going to be a massive imbalance with divisions, so why even try anymore?
November 15th, 2021 at 5:25 PM ^
Our best bet, if both Michigan and msu win out in the regular season and West team beats msu in the BTCG is for Georgia to beat Alabama. If bama beats UGA and both are 1-loss teams, guarantee that both teams make the playoffs. That might leave the Big Ten out in the cold if Oregon and Cincy win out. I still think it highly possible that 11-1 Michigan can leap undefeated Cincy, although not without controversy.
If Bama loses, they have 2 losses and that opens up a spot for Michigan. I also don't see a 2-loss msu - even as the BTCG runner-up - staying ahead of 1-loss Michigan.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
If your scenario above plays out, a 1 loss Michigan team is getting in over an undefeated Cincinnati? With the playoff setup the way it is currently with only 4 teams, the committee has shown that an undefeated non power 5 is not getting in over a deserving power 5 team with a great resume.
November 15th, 2021 at 8:37 PM ^
1 loss Michigan would jump 2 loss Bama, 1 loss Oregon (both beat OSU, M loss and other wins significantly better), Cincy.
the only way I can see that we wouldn’t be in would be if Bama wins out and beats Georgia and MSU wins out. Can’t imagine they would pick 2 SEC and 2 Big Ten teams due to the blowback, so we’d be the casualty.
November 15th, 2021 at 9:32 PM ^
How messed up would it be if Michigan finally beats OSU, only has one loss, and doesn't get a Big Ten championship or get into the playoff? And Sparty gets both? That'd be just...sigh.
November 15th, 2021 at 10:32 PM ^
It would suck, but that is what makes college football so compelling. Every single game matters.
November 16th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
Fine with me. Sparty can go to the playoffs and score 0 points as often as they'd like so long as we beat OSU.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:27 PM ^
Best 4 get in regardless of conference champ or not if this scenario plays out Michigan is in, just look at the replays against Michigan on the road at MSU. I think the committee has already determined that but first win the next 2 and then take a look.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
The Road Less Traveled, of course.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:01 PM ^
It may even be possible with B1G champion Sparty, but we’d need a lot of help
November 15th, 2021 at 6:58 PM ^
I don't know how much help we'd actually need. Competitors would be Cincy/ND and Oregon. If either Cincy or ND lose, then both tank. If OSU loses to MSU and Michigan, then the rest of Oregon's schedule doesn't look as good as ours. The only thing that might put one of them ahead of us is if Bama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game and both end up in the CFP.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:03 PM ^
1000%. One loss Michigan absolutely goes to playoff. Ratings would be off the wall and everyone knows it
November 15th, 2021 at 5:13 PM ^
I think the playoff committee is hardly influenced by potential TV ratings than other factors. Can't expect any help there.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:39 PM ^
? That's the only thing they're influenced by.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:03 PM ^
Sharty ain't beating OSU...
November 15th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
If we finish 11-1 and don’t make it to the CFP, our consolation prize is most likely a trip to the Rose Bowl. Who on this board wouldn’t have gladly taken that at the start of the season?