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The Daily has a shop on a…

The Daily has a shop on a 3rd party site that they have promoted, which offers larger sizes than the 11x17 offered directly from The Daily: https://www.redbubble.com/people/michigan-daily/shop

I have purchased several of these posters over the past few years (already received the Rose Bowl one, should get the national championship one in a few days), and just order an inexpensive frame from Michael’s to put them in. They all look great. 

I track ticket prices over…

I track ticket prices over time on https://cfb-tickets.com/ to aid in optimal time to buy. For championship game tickets, the best time to buy was before the field was announced, but the next best time will be immediately after two of the 4 teams are eliminated and the losing teams' fans dump their tickets, and in the 24 hours before the game as urgency to sell rises (this will also be the most volatile window, as supply will be dwindling). There may be an occasional deal between now and the semi-final games, but you'll need to constantly monitor the markets to catch them.

We have an advantage playing in the earlier semi-final game, as the opponent's fan base will not have certainty in their status for a few hours after the Rose Bowl ends. Alabama fans were likely amongst the heaviest buyers when tickets first became available, so if Michigan wins there will be a lot of inventory available immediately after the Rose Bowl. Prices will dip again after the Sugar Bowl if and only if Washington wins. If Texas wins, prices will jump due to their proximity to the championship game location.

In short, don't buy today on the secondary market; prices are inflated. Buy either right after the Rose Bowl (or wait if Washington looks like they'll win the Sugar Bowl) or if you happen to spot an acceptable price in the next 4 weeks.

 

Yes, I did include the 2020…

Yes, I did include the 2020 season. This probably affected the numbers a bit, but I don't think it would change the overall conclusion much (there were 62 4M+ regular season games in 2020; the next lowest season was 2017 with 66, and the highest was 2014 with 98). I plan to keep tracking this annually, so it will be interesting to see how steadily the tiers hold leading into the next wave of realignment.

I'm also curious how streaming will factor in going forward, as those numbers are not made publicly available. Additionally, a few networks choose not to participate in collecting ratings. From the source data's website

Why are there no ratings for SEC Network, ACC Network and more?

The television networks pay Nielsen to measure viewership for their events. In some cases, they may choose not to. 

The major networks are all included, so it's likely only a couple (if any) 4M+ games are being left out.

Thanks! This was my first…

Thanks! This was my first diary post and of course I goofed up getting the charts to load in the post itself (hopefully scrolling back and forth to see them in the comments isn't too annoying). 

I agree that the new PAC members will get a boost both from better time slots and better matchups, and I think the reason those 4 were targeted by the Big Ten becomes very clear when you look at this data; they were featured in all of the Pac12's 4M+ viewer games in this time frame.

The next round of TV contracts I think will be fascinating. The Big Ten's contract runs through the 2029-30 athletic year (so it expires just prior to the 2030 football season). The SEC's new contract with ESPN/ABC begins next year and runs through the 2033 season. The ACC's is through the 2036 season, and the Big 12's is through the 2030 season. I'd expect we start hearing about upcoming movements sometime around 2028, with the Big Ten likely to make the first move.

The next few seasons may shake up a few teams I'm currently projecting to be barely in and a few that are currently projected to be left out. The biggest wild card is Colorado, as their viewership numbers have been much higher since Deion signed on; they were essentially irrelevant to this conversation before this season. If Deion sticks around and gets them rolling they would certainly be an appealing addition to the Big Ten. South Carolina and all 4 of the ACC's North Carolina teams not making the cut was surprising; I think there's room for a few of them to work their way in before the next wave of re-alignment.

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I recently dug into these…

I recently dug into these numbers as well, looked at 2014-2022 seasons. Games above 4M viewers not featuring Michigan or Ohio State are nearly nonexistent; it was something like 2 out of 130 or so regular season conference games. 

This is where Michigan’s value to the conference is realized. If they weren’t in the conference, the number of 4M viewer games is roughly cut in half, and the biggest game every year (M/OSU) wouldn’t be entirely allocated to the Big Ten. 
FWIW, I don’t think the answer is Michigan leaving the Big Ten, but rather re-negotiating how the TV revenue is distributed. Why should Rutgers, Northwestern, etc. get the same amount as Michigan when they contributed zero towards earning that amount? 

The next wave of realignment…

The next wave of realignment in 2030 or whenever these new tv deals come up for renewal is going to be entirely driven by TV money. Teams that get viewers will be desired and teams that do not will be discarded. I don’t see a move for Michigan to an existing conference, but rather a complete reshuffling of the deck. Sam Webb has talked about this a bit this week on WTKA, and I think he’s right. It’ll be the biggest players in the new big ten (M, OSU, PSU, USC) for sure, Notre Dame, then filled out with the next most valuable teams to allow for a full schedule. Most likely that will include Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Wisconsin, and Nebraska bringing it to 10. If more are needed, I’d imagine looking to the highest viewership teams in the ACC and Big 12 would be next up, as the drop off in TV viewers is dramatic after Wisconsin and Nebraska. The Big Ten leftovers will go the way of Oregon State and Washington State. Maybe they can all band together and form a viable conference, but it’ll be a clear gigantic step down from the new top tier. 

Definitely not too soon, if…

Definitely not too soon, if anything it’s overdue. The list of shortcomings by Warde was pretty long before this, and adding them all up it’s fair to say he hasn’t met the expectations of the position. Warde is 100% replaceable; Harbaugh is arguably irreplaceable. 

Use the Brave browser. Loads…

Use the Brave browser. Loads instantly. I was having the same issue with Chrome, and switching immediately fixed it.

Regarding ticket prices for…

Regarding ticket prices for the MSU game, they have been steadily dropping for weeks and continue to hit new lows. If you're looking to go, it's probably best to wait until the week of the game to buy. You can track ticket prices over time at https://cfb-tickets.com/

I can't recall his name, but…

I can't recall his name, but there was a guy who would regularly end his calls with a Bob Ufer impression. I haven't heard him in a long time, hope he's doing well.

 

Edit: I think his name was Dennis from the OC.

Perfectly normal behavior…

Perfectly normal behavior. College football is entertainment, if it doesn’t provide that for you there’s no reason to keep consuming the content. Take a break, do something that brings you joy. It’ll still be here when you’re ready to come back.

There are so many things…

There are so many things wrong with college football officiating, and these and other proposed solutions seem super obvious. It’ll likely never happen though, because there’s not enough incentive for the sport to change. Substantially improving officiating would cost a lot, but what would the return on investment be? As frustrating as it is for us to watch it continue, we’re still watching, we won’t stop watching, and the powers that be know that. Also, is there a significant untapped market who is waiting for the officiating to improve before they tune in regularly? Certainly not. 

I really think the only way out of this is for definitive proof of a point shaving scandal involving college football referees in a high profile game to surface. Such a scandal would force reform. These referees are paid absurdly little relative to the power they have over the outcome of games where millions of dollars are at stake; there’s definitely been some refs on the take somewhere along the way. But without the proof of that, this is what we’re left with indefinitely. 

Kevin Grady traveled to and…

Kevin Grady traveled to and practiced with the team in California for the 2005 Rose Bowl. Didn’t play in the game, but he was definitely there practicing a few days after his high school fall semester ended. 

Let’s start from the…

Let’s start from the beginning:

my first ever Michigan road game was at MSU in 1993, a loss

my 2nd ever Michigan home game was Colorado 1994

an extremely good decade followed, but then…

Rose Bowl against Texas

Alamo Bowl against Nebraska

App State, Oregon back to back

Toledo

a 1-10 road/neutral site record from 2008-2014 which included the gator bowl against Miss St and Alabama in Jerryworld, plus nearly every home game in that span (the entirety of the RR/Hoke era)

2015 MSU

and a few random road games that by that point I was numb to. 
 

Haven’t attended a game since the 2017 season. You’re welcome, everyone. 

 

 

 

How tall are you today? 

How tall are you today? 

Michigan wins 73-7.

Upset…

Michigan wins 73-7.

Upset of the week (year?): Nebraska finally wins a one-score game, over Oklahoma at home in their first Frost-less game. 

Whether in the stadium or…

Whether in the stadium or during the tv/radio broadcasts, this will certainly be advertised in some capacity during games. The number of contributors will explode after next Saturday. 

It doesn’t take anywhere…

It doesn’t take anywhere near the money the big ten schools will have in their budget as a result of this deal though. G5 schools operate with an order of magnitude less revenue, do they have only a tenth of the necessary expenses? Of course not. Big ten schools are looking for new ways to spend all this money. Facilities upgrades knocked out a lot of it, but those are winding down. The administration head count has grown like crazy and commanding higher salaries for diminishing responsibilities. As mentioned earlier, the fans are going to feel the impact of this deal through additional costs for viewing the broadcasts and perpetually increasing ticket prices. This trajectory is unsustainable without also increasing the customer base, and they’re going to risk losing some of that base without giving some incentive to keep paying more. 

That does sound like a good…

That does sound like a good deal if you live in an area where AT&T Fiber is available. I do not, unfortunately, so I can't even see details of what the bundled offer is for that. The deal isn't appealing for DirecTV Choice on its own at all; it's $70/month for the first 12 months, but requires a 24 month commitment and the 2nd 12 months are $124/month, AND there's an early termination fee of $20/month remaining on the contract! Plus equipment rentals & installation which aren't a thing on the apps.

So for those who can't get a decent deal in a bundle, managing the month to month apps is a far better deal.

That’s for the months that…

That’s for the months that you subscribe to YTTV and other apps, which as previously mentioned only needs to be 7/12 months a year. Can you go month to month on directv at 180/month, or is that the monthly cost for a contract? If you’re locked in for a year, then the fair comparison is annual costs, which would be:

Directv bundle for 12/12 months: $2,160/year

Google fiber for 12/12 months, apps for 7/12 months: $1,420/year 

 

 

Has everyone just memory…

Has everyone just memory holed the 2017 game? It kicked off at 7:30pm in Ann Arbor. We’ve already done this at night, it’s not controversial in any way.

Football: 9 (Michigan, MSU,…

Football: 9 (Michigan, MSU, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa) plus Notre Dame and Rose Bowl

Basketball: 6 (Michigan, MSU, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue) plus Notre Dame and big ten tournaments in Indy 

It’s hard to imagine both…

It’s hard to imagine both Cade and JJ return to Michigan in ‘23; they’re both high level P5 QBs and could start at 90%+ of P5 programs in ‘23. They know that, and if they’re both coming back to college one will be hitting the portal.

Best-case scenario would be that Cade has a spectacular ‘22 season and declares for the draft, then we have certainty that JJ is QB1 in ‘23. 

Cord-cutting has been…

Cord-cutting has been accelerating in recent years, and there’s no sign that those who left will return; when they’re gone, they’re gone forever. The demand for cable from young people entering adulthood is essentially zero, so there’s really no opportunity for market penetration. Cable is going to become as rare as landline phones very soon.

An interesting data point to me is that streaming services are no longer growing their subscriber bases either. While some are essentially holding steady, a growing number of potential customers are opting out of paid subscriptions altogether, devoting their viewing attention instead to free services like YouTube and social media. 
 

This makes me think that the big ten would be wise to lock in a longer term media deal this time. The demand might be near its peak, so it’d be better to negotiate the terms longer while the demand is high. And this urgency magnifies the importance of adding Notre Dame now, so this next contract can have maximal value. 

Yes, projected value of…

Yes, projected value of teams added to the conference is a critical metric to include in the evaluation. I think the big ten got that right with USC; even though they’re a little down in viewership—and depending on time frame measured would be below Oregon in current value—their future value has to be among the highest in the country with the hire of Lincoln Riley.
 

UCLA is a little risky long term, in my opinion. They have limited student attendance due to their stadium being about 30 miles from campus (when I was last out there they had a sign on campus for shuttle service to the Rose Bowl…that left 3 hours(!) before kickoff. That’s not going to be appealing to students unless the team is really good), and with limited engagement as students, there isn’t much connection as a young alum without those fond memories of attending games. Their tv viewership reflects that, as they’ve been near the middle of the Pac12 in that regard. Maybe UCLA was a requirement to get USC though, and in that case was probably worth it.

Considering future value, it still seems like Notre Dame is the highest probability play available, and if Stanford is a required add-on the that’s still a great move. The next move to get to 20 isn’t nearly as obvious though, especially if these moves are “permanent” like they seem to have been so far (i.e., we seem to be stuck with Rutgers). Perhaps stopping at 18 would be the optimal solution. 

Everyone needs to drop the…

Everyone needs to drop the notion that tv markets matter. They don’t, and haven’t since right around the time the big ten added Maryland and Rutgers. Those additions were EXTREMELY short-sighted. TV markets mattered before streaming services were widely utilized and you couldn’t get games outside your region easily. That’s no longer the case today and never will be again.

The only criteria that matters from a media rights perspective is number of viewers per game. That’s why Notre Dame is so valuable and Cal isn’t. If Rutgers weren’t already in the big ten there is zero chance they’d be considered today.

The best move from a financial standpoint (and honestly that’s all that matters to those making these decisions) is getting Notre Dame, and doing so probably requires getting their annual rival Stanford as well. Even though Stanford doesn’t add much value themselves, ND would add so much that it’s worth tacking on another team to get them. 

This is my biggest gripe…

This is my biggest gripe with Forde’s method as well. Using only 4 years of data is a pretty small sample, and the 1M cutoff is too low to identify TV value. Using a 4M cut-off, the top 5 in order is:

1 Alabama

2 Ohio State

3 Michigan

4 Georgia

5 Oklahoma 

which seems more accurate to me. 

I drove past their convoy…

I drove past their convoy this afternoon, they were heading west on I96 between Lansing and Grand Rapids. Looked like about 6 Indian Trails busses with “Michigan Football 2022” logos on the sides, plus their equipment truck following the busses. 

Some concerning items in the…

Some concerning items in the article for sure. Which coaches might be leaving with him? Presumably Jay would go, hopefully nobody else. Hard pass on Rhule, really hope that’s not likely. As much as I love the idea of HC Mike Hart someday, I’d rather see what Gattis can do with this offense next year. 

Alabama & Georgia have only…

Alabama & Georgia have only met in the regular season twice in the last 13 years; this needs to be addressed. If the SEC would put that game on the schedule then the inevitable rematch could shift back to the SEC title game instead of locking up two playoff slots.

Hopefully the SEC divisions shift Bama and Auburn to the east and Missouri to the west once Texas and Oklahoma join to resolve this. 

Taking this approach would…

Taking this approach would not only guarantee Michigan never wins a national title again, it would relegate Michigan to the bottom half of P5 forever. Hoping to compete against programs that leverage NIL while not leveraging it yourself is the most arrogant, delusional nonsense imaginable. 
The only program that Michigan can prevent from leveraging NIL is Michigan’s, and it will be to their detriment as nobody else who is serious about being competitive shares this view. 

A vaccine would not allow a…

A vaccine would not allow a person to get the virus.

Please become familiar with probability.

The “local” perception is…

The “local” perception is interesting! Yeah if that’s the case that is a nice advantage. 

Unfortunately there isn’t an…

Unfortunately there isn’t an alternative without undesirable consequences, at least that I’ve ever heard of, from Michigan’s perspective. Current situation means the 2nd best team in the conference doesn’t get to play for a championship, splitting M/OSU means potential back to back games, moving The Game disrupts a tradition, moving PSU and/or MSU gives them an easier path to Indy and potentially makes Michigan’s path even more difficult with protected a rivalry. Maybe the current setup is the least awful? Would be nice to play Minnesota more frequently though. 

Is this whole thing sarcasm,…

Is this whole thing sarcasm, or just the PA ties? He was Temple’s head coach for 18 days before returning to Miami. 

Heisman voters aren’t…

Heisman voters aren’t watching every game; they’re reading box scores and watching big games. They tuned in for MSU/Michigan, which vaulted Walker into the lead at that point. They also tuned in to MSU/OSU, and saw his team get absolutely bombed into oblivion. It’s likely most voters outside the Midwest didn’t watch another MSU game all year. So they saw one great performance and a disappearing act. That’s not Heisman worthy, the end. 

My friends and I have…

My friends and I have referred to this concept as “fan insurance” for years. Essentially we determine how much a win is worth to us, and we are buying the win by betting the opponent’s money line. If our team wins it’s great; we got what we paid for. If our team loses we get our money back plus significant interest. The key is finding the balance so that you’re still happier with the win; if you find that you want the money more than the win, your bet was too big. 

While the amount of the…

While the amount of the offer was initially shocking, it makes sense that they’re doing this. They don’t want to go through another search and don’t want annual battles to keep him from being poached, so this definitely ensures a few more years of stability (if he signs it; the most baffling part is this offer has gotten national attention before being signed. What if he doesn’t sign?)

If MSU has this kind of money to throw at a coach, I’d rather it be Tucker than a more proven coach. $9.5M/yr could sway a lot of high-end coaches to make the jump.

It also seems like the 2020 win over Michigan is carrying a disproportionate amount of weight in this decision. If he’s only 1-0 against Michigan, are they making this big of an offer? The rest of their 2020 season was awful, so it’s a bit surprising that they ignore all the bad but amplify the one high point. 

 

Simplifying it down to same…

Simplifying it down to same record = teams are totally equal so use the H2H as a tiebreaker is wildly oversimplifying analysis on a tiny sample size. Identical W-L records are not inherently equal. The committee is looking at total body of work, comparing the aggregate of everything that’s happened in the season. H2H is a large data point, yes, but it does not outweigh the rest of the season on its own. One of MSU’s wins is over an FCS team; everyone who schedules FCS gets dinged a bit for doing so. They went to OT at home vs Nebraska, Michigan did not and won on the road. As much as haters want to complain that Wisconsin “wasn’t good” when Michigan beat them, that’s a road win over a currently ranked team who hasn’t lost a game since. Their schedule was front-loaded; they’ll very likely wind up 9-3 which isn’t any worse than going 9-3 with losses distributed later in the schedule.  
 

Body of work favors Michigan enough that it can outweigh the H2H data point. 
Oregon/Ohio State is often pointed to as the “correct” way to rank matching records with H2H, but the key difference is Oregon won on the road which is considerably more difficult than winning at home. There’s no counterpoint of “well on a neutral field it might’ve gone better for Ohio State”.

UWMC stock hit their all…

UWMC stock hit their all-time low today, dropping about 10% on the day. Interesting coincidence that that happens the same day their CEO is mentioned as being involved in funding this. 

Mid-week 9pm tip-offs have…

Mid-week 9pm tip-offs have always had sparse attendance outside the student section. It’s pretty amazing the athletic department doesn’t mind regularly showcasing the basketball program playing in front of so many empty seats. 
 

When I was a student they played a late night game in the ACC/BigTen challenge, and announced in advance that non-maize rage students would be allowed in free if they showed up. They got upper bowl seats, but it probably drew another 1,000 people into the arena.
 

Michigan needs to figure out ways to improve attendance. Track season ticket holder attendance and give them worse seats the following season if their tickets go unused too often, or just sell fewer season tickets in the lower bowl. People buying single game tickets are far more likely to show up for the games they have tickets for than season ticket holders are to show up for every game. There are plenty of easy solutions. It’s been a problem for long enough; time to stop worrying if this would upset donors. Prioritize the atmosphere and the people who want to be there. 

Saban is 70 years old; the…

Saban is 70 years old; the 2nd oldest current FBS coach (a couple months younger than Mack Brown). It’s safe to assume retirement isn’t that far off. 

Is there a good reason to…

Is there a good reason to still have divisions? I’m curious if anything prevents the big ten from doing what the big 12 does and just send the top 2 to the championship game. It’s pretty clear that by protecting rivalries there’s going to be a massive imbalance with divisions, so why even try anymore?

It’s quite a leap to claim 3…

It’s quite a leap to claim 3/4 of the new big 12 teams will finish at the top of the conference immediately. Houston is 8-1, and their loss was by 17 at home to Texas Tech, who is currently 2-4 in that “weak” big 12. BYU is 0-1 against the big 12 this year, losing by 14 at Baylor. You conceded UCF, so that leaves just Cincinnati. 
Yes, there’s clearly a gap between the SEC/Big Ten and the other 3, but lumping them in collectively with the G5 where only 1 team (Cincinnati) has an argument they’d be a contender in a P5 right now is hyperbole.

Not sure I’ve ever…

Not sure I’ve ever encountered someone who carried water so hard for the G5, especially over a hypothetical scenario; fascinating. 

I think the G5 should get representation, and one auto bid for that is plenty. There would still be 6 to 10 at large spots available if there’s a couple 13-0 G5 teams; nothing wrong with inviting one of them at-large if they’ve been impressive.
 

I just don’t see the point of taking away an auto bid from a P5 because once a decade there are two G5 conferences that have better champions (which again, is even less likely to be the case after re-alignment). That can be resolved through seeding and at-large bids, like in the NCAA tournament.
 

For example, sometimes there will be an upset in the conference championship, like say Utah were to beat Oregon in the P12 title game. Oregon would then get an at-large bid, and Utah is probably the last seed in the field, bumping the G5 auto bid up a line. Is that a bad thing? I’d argue that’s a better situation for the G5, otherwise they’d be thrown in as the last seed every time and never have a chance.