Status of MBB's resume - Big Ten Tourney Edition

I would really like them to beat Indiana to remove any doubt.

Not thrilled about one more dose of Kofi in the quarters but at some point Michigan is going to beat Illinois in basketball, right?  Right????

Beat Indiana and we are in, without any question. Lose Thursday and I think we are in, but I’ll be sweating it out quite a bit on selection Sunday and wouldn’t be totally shocked if we got left out. Win the game!

CBS (Jerry Palm) has had Michigan lower all season compared to most. He also is ranked in the bottom third of accuracy on bracket matrix so...

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

CBS hasn't been as keen about us all season

That's because Palm is constantly harping on the arbitrary "four wins above .500" criteria, which need I remind you is not an actual requirement for teams' resumes. Yes, the committee will not look favorably at a team without an overall record that's above .500, but there are some examples of teams getting at-large bids with fewer than four wins above the .500 mark. So even though Michigan's quality metrics, SOS, and combined Q1&2 record all point to the making of a tourney team, Palm will probably continue to lowball Michigan's chances. 

I think they need to beat Indiana to avoid the first four and still think there is a chance they miss the tournament with a loss. 
 

Also if your goal is to make the sweet 16 a 10 or 11 seed is clearly better than an 8 or 9. Id take a 12 seed over an 8 seed easy.

@jdraman 

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't UM 5 wins above .500 at 18-13?

For what it's worth, in 4 of the last 5 (fully completed) Big Ten tournaments, Michigan either defeated the 1 seed or was the 1 seed.

Their basketball page says 18-13 but I could have sworn they were 17-13.

@Maison Bleue No, Michigan is currently 17-13. 

IF their "buy" game against Purdue Fort Wayne had not been cancelled, they would almost assuredly be 18-13 though. 

Michigan is going to be a tough out. With the way that DJ is playing at point guard, Eli brooks steady leadership and the post play from Hunter and Moussa as well as Juwan being back and the outstanding coaching staff . I think UM will be dangerous this March.

Agree, give us a 10 seed.  Keep us away from the 8/9 game.  I worry losing to Indiana puts us back towards play-in game status but hopefully yesterday truly catapulted us into a solid 10 seed line.

There have been a lot of mitigating circumstances, and Juwan and co. have coached this team well; they are clearly playing better defense today than a few weeks ago. But I would like to see us get to 20 wins. That's a kind of marker for a good season. If most of the rankings have us among the top thirty teams--if you consider that this team, when playing well, can stand toe to toe with all but the top five or six squads--I think it's reasonable to imagine that we beat Indiana, go at least two rounds in the NCAA tourney. 

Next year, we will be a better team. 

I think this fanbase is vastly overrating Michigan's chances of getting in right now, if you go through the top rated bracket guys they generally had Michigan around the last four/first four out going into the game yesterday. Even with that win they are in the bottom 8 teams and they are playing a team that is one of the first four out. Its pretty easy to just swap Indiana into a Michigan's last four in slot if they beat us. I wouldn't feel great with a loss on Thursday.

18-13 looks alot better than 17-13 for some reason. We had one of toughest schedules in country and got screw out of an automatic win. I think committee will factor all of this.

Feeling good overall. Regarding the Jerry Palm stuff, he is weirdly focused on the 4 games above .500 thing. He seem like a kind of inflexible guy on twitter who is clinging to historical things that may not have much relevance anymore. And, as someone pointed out above, he is ranked #100 out of 135 veteran bracketologists, so I'm not putting a ton of weight on his opinion. 

While the potential matchup with Illinois is not great, I think the silver lining is that if they are the one team we are most concerned about Michigan beating, it might be better getting them on day two instead of on day 4 with no legs. Not a great matchup for sure, but 2015 was the last time Michigan didn't make the semis of the BTT, so they have a good track record in this event if nothing else. 

To me, the most important thing by several orders of magnitude is figuring out how to bring the energy and execution they had in the MSU and OSU games and not coming out like they did against Iowa. 

The difference of opinion from the likes of Lunardi and Palm compared to metrics or sites like Torvik is fascinating. 

The human prognosticators mostly have Michigan either in the last 4 byes or in the last four in. Meanwhile, Torvik thinks even with a loss to Indiana, Michigan would be a 10 seed. Here are Torvik's scenarios FWIW:

Lose to Indiana (17-14): 10 Seed, avoiding the last four byes or the last four in.

Beat Indiana, lose to Illinois (18-14): 7 Seed

Beat Indiana and Illinois, lose to Iowa (19-14): 7 Seed

Beat Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa, lose to Purdue/OSU (20-14): 5 Seed (!!!)

Win the B1G Conference Tournament (21-13): Highest 5 Seed

The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, but if Michigan does make a run in the conference tournament they would be adding several Quad 1 wins and could really make a move.

With the win yesterday Michigan is a lock for the tournament.  They might want to win that Indiana game on Thursday to avoid the play-in game, but they are in the field based on Quad 1 wins and SOS. 

  Like someone else said, avoid looking at Jerry Palm's projections, he has been below average the last few years in projecting the tournament field. Joe Lunardi is much more accurate. 

Indiana has plenty to play for, btw--Lunardi has them as the first team out. 

Reply to AK47 - I think they are in better shape than you do, but drawing Indiana in the first round does have an unfortunately feeling of "win and you are in" for both teams and I think that is how it will be "billed" as well.  A matchup against a team solidly in or solidly out would have been highly preferable in the first game of the BTT.  5 quad one wins is difficult to keep out though.

Indiana will not be an easy game to win. We beat them last time hitting 11 threes and Houstan had 5 of those. He hasn’t shot well away from home so I wouldn’t count on his. Our offense works so much better when we are knocking down threes. Here’s to hoping we can actually get hot for the month of March. 

Like the OP said, I'm almost thinking ending up on the 11/12 line is a better option for Michigan. Obviously we know how the dreaded 8/9 line typically works out with going up against the 1 seed the following round, and ending up as a 7 seed isn't a much better option barring a big time upset on the 2/15 line. 

I'm not sure there's any scenario, maybe short of winning the BTT, where Michigan can do any better than a 7 seed, so I'd rather end up with a 11/12 seed and face a (relatively speaking) easier path. I have to believe you see more 11/12 seeds make the second round of the tournament than you do 7-10 seeds. 

Either way, just get into the tournament, which if I'm the coaching staff I'm still not telling my players that its a given, even at this point. They happen to be playing an Indiana team that is considered among the first four out right now, so Indiana's desperation factor may be a notch or two above Michigan's going into that game. Win that game and you're unquestionably in. Lose, and you're probably still better than a coin flip's chance, but you may end up in a play-in game, or if you just look flat out bad in that game, you may still be sweating out Selection Sunday. 

Not trying to be a downer, but Indiana isn't going to roll over. If I recall, Michigan beat them last time because it was that one in four or five games where everything clicked and they shot the lights out. I don't think we can reasonably expect that to happen again. Hope for it? Sure! But don't expect it. 

I think the only difference is that there are typically about 4 teams that border on "unbeatable" in the early rounds of the tournament.  I would rather have a 10 seed than an 8/9.  Two seeds are typically very good teams but also not on that next level that the four one seeds most often are.

I'd like to think that the committee would also factor how many tough games UM had to cram into the last 30 days.

Regardless, there just are not many (any?) bubble teams with 5 Q1 wins plus the overall SoS that UM has. Should be a lock at this point.

If Michigan finds its way into being a 10 seed, the 2 seed they'd get matched up with would probably be one of Duke, Auburn/Kentucky, Kansas, Tennessee, or Villanova. 

Wouldn't it be fun if Michigan could get by their 7 seed counterpart and then be the team that ends Coach K's career? 

Sagarin still has us with the toughest strength of schedule in the nation. 

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

(PS when we play Indiana in Indy, that shouldn't really be considered a "neutral" court).

What was ol Jerry Palms thinking on Michigan St last year?!

Replying to @B-Nut-GoBlue...

Of course Palm had MSU as a 10 seed last year lmao. 

We've got some unfinished business with those Badgers. It'll be a fun few days.

This is a weird year where the Wrestling team wins the B1G tourney and our basketball teams (both men and women) may not make any noise in their B1G tourneys (still hopeful for our men).  Would like to have all three as champions (obvious things are obvious!).  Hope the women make some noise in their NCAA tourney.

Overall the season was somewhat disappointing but destroying one rival and beating the other in their place makes up for the other losses. Cant wait for both tourneys!

Michigan is in. Anyone claiming otherwise doesn’t pay attention to teams that have gotten in in the past 

Torvik is generally one of the worst bracketologists so I wouldn't take anything from his metric without washing it down with a giant block of salt. He's also a butthurt Badger baby.

Jerry Palm also sucks, too, in addition to having an absolutely awful haircut.

Kinda wish Indiana wasn’t playing for their tournament life. They desperately need this win 

Re: An opportunity to beat Duke. Still pure conjecture, but that would be must-see viewing; I'll bet Juwan could go for that. Odds would be against us, but too tantalizing an opportunity not to grab by the short and curlies!

Let me know who's selling Michigan as a lock and I'll never trust them to secure the doors to my house. Conference tourney season is just getting started and all it takes is some chaos in other tournaments to have us home if we lose to Indiana. If Santa Clara goes ham the next two nights and anyone other than South Dakota State wins the Summit, a couple teams will see their bubble burst. I like our chances, but we can't come out playing like the tournament is a given.

42% chance we are an 8 seed. 27% chance we're a 9

A big win for us yesterday! Devante' is now playing the way Coach envisioned. T-Will had a standup game too. The defense is coming around as well. This team has a very high cieling that unfortunately it won't achieve this year, but I think they have the potential to sniff the sweet sixteen 

So, Michigan is sort of all over the place. Lunardi has them as one of the last four byes. Palm (who is notoriously shitty) has them in the play-in. Brian Bennett at The Athletic has them as a 9 seed. Bracketville has them in the play-in. 
 

My gut says that they’re hovering at a 10/11 seed as one of the last teams to not be in Dayton. Beat Indiana and I think they’re fine. Lose and it won’t be a guarantee this Sunday. 
 

Quick rooting interests: 

ACC -

Root for: Duke or UNC to win the tournament. Root against ND, Miami, and Wake

American-

Root for: Houston win the tournament

Against: Memphis and SMU

Big XII-

Think most everyone is a lock or out except maybe Oklahoma. 
 

Big East-

Root hard against Xavier and Creighton.

Pac12-

Lock or out so nothing matters.

SEC -

Root against Florida or A&M making a deep run.

WCC -

Root for Gonzaga or St. Mary’s to win the autobid 

Mountain West -

Root for Boise, Colorado State, or San Diego State to win the autobid

Root against: Wyoming. 

A10 -

Root hard for Davidson to win the autobid

Against: Anybody else and VCU/Dayton

So we're an 11-seed playing LSU in San Diego in Lunardi's bracket today, with a potential second round matchup against Texas Tech.

Sign me up for that draw!!

@Jordan2323. That's very true and I think it will be a very tough game. I will say though that Dickinson has consistently gotten the better of TJD and even though Houstan doesn't shoot well away from home, Indiana doesn't play well away from home either. 

Besides early season Maryland and Minnesota, they've lost away from Assembly Hall, and that includes losses to Northwestern and Penn State. 

I always think the 10/11 line is better than the 8/9.  

Really proud of the team yesterday for pulling that game out.  Not having Hunter to lean on really brought out the best in them.  

I'm all in for the Blue of course but this team has been so unpredictable. It seems like they'll come out on fire w/Juwan back on the sidelines but few things turned out as expected this year. Plus playing IU in Indy which is all but a home game for them AND they know they need to win to get in (perhaps more than us?) so who knows.

From my somewhat distant perspective--haven't watched as much Michigan basketball this year as in previous years--our improvement on D is one of best assets going into the postseason. Now if only our outside shooting could show the same upward trend...

Another contrary way of looking at the 10/11 seed vs the 8/9: With the 10 or 11 you are likely playing against a better team as an underdog right out of the gate, and the most probable outcome is a one and done (assuming teams are properly seeded- which is a big assumption I know). With an 8/9 game you are in close to a 50-50 situation.

Granted in round 2, if you pull the upset in game 1, you are in better shape, albeit still a more significant underdog than you were in game 1. With the 8/9 if you get to round 2, which you have a better chance of doing, than from the 10/11, you play a #1 seed, but here if you pull the even bigger upset, you are rewarded by inheriting the #1 seed's easier path and get to play the 4 seed or lower in round 3 as opposed to a 2 or 3 seed. 

I just want to get in and I won't complain about our seed, especially when you consider where we were a month ago.

Feels like UM is solidly in the tournament but aren't completely safe from a play-in game if a bunch of bid stealers show up. But gun to my head they are a 10 seed to me provided they beat IU.

It is weird that people talk about MSU as a shoo-in for a bid and even a single-digit seeding when they are rated below UM in NET (and the gap between them and UM is the same as UM to OSU and Wisconsin), have the same conference mark, and look like a hot mess for the past month+.

@Bronxblue I think I hate MSU basketball almost as much as OSU football. Izzo's a whiner and a weenie and they are almost always overrated.

We will win at least 2 more games this season.

Let's play the blind resume game:

A: Q1: 1-4 Q2: 4-3 Q3: 8-1   Q4: 10-0  Avg Resume Rank: 46 Avg Quality Rank: 36  SoS: 78

B: Q1: 5-9 Q2: 3-3 Q3: 6-1   Q4: 3-0    Avg Resume Rank: 36 Avg Quality Rank: 26  SoS: 4

C: Q1: 2-6 Q2: 2-2 Q3: 11-1 Q4: 6-0    Avg Resume Rank: 48 Avg Quality Rank: 47  SoS: 65

D: Q1: 4-6 Q2: 3-3 Q3: 3-0   Q4: 10-1  Avg Resume Rank: 58 Avg Quality Rank: 57  SoS: 89

E: Q1: 2-2 Q2: 3-3 Q3: 9-1   Q4: 8-1    Avg Resume Rank: 42 Avg Quality Rank: 49  SoS: 97

FYI: I'm using ESPNs BPI based SoS.  I'm not sure if that's what the NCAA uses but I don't think they publish what they use.

To me, Team A looks like they would be big trouble.  Same with Team C given their weak Q1 records and nothing special elsewhere. 

Team E looks perhaps like the best of the bunch with that nice 500 record in Q1 and Q2 games although they haven't played many of them.  But the bracketologists almost universally have those switched with Team A as their highest ranked and Team B/D/E in the most trouble and that is baffling to me.

I have a theory that will get tested on selection Sunday.

Jerry Palm is the only guy that agrees with me that resume A is the worst of the bunch but then he has Team C ranked the highest of the bunch which makes no sense (i.e. if you put a lot of weight on Q1 record, how can you like team C a lot more than everyone else?)

I am feeling a lot better about our chances after ruining Ohio's Senior Day. I think we are in even if we lose to Indiana, a W or L will just affect our seeding. Our NET ranking, SOS and winning record in B1G play will get us in.

Bracket Matrix updated and we moved up a whole 2 or 3 spots.  Meanwhile Memphis who beat Houston moved up quite a few spots.  /shrug