South Korea tops OECD’s growth rate forecast for 2020

Submitted by Gulogulo37 on August 31st, 2020 at 10:32 PM

You actually can have your cake and eat it too.

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200811000764

This shouldn't be a shock at all. In general, the countries that have done the best at containing the virus (testing, tracing, and isolating, and wearing masks) have been the ones able to keep their economies running smoother.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Taiwan-s-GDP-falls-surprise-0.73-in-Q2-as-global-economy-slows

Taiwan's economy barely shrunk in the second quarter, and a lot of that probably has to do with the rest of the world than Taiwan itself struggling.

https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/sweden/news/gdp/gdp-records-largest-contraction-on-record-in-q2

By comparison, Sweden contracted 8.3% in the second quarter.

Of course, this has been the argument all along. If you're worried about the economy, you should be worried about controlling the virus, not letting it run rampant. Restaurants and bars never closed in Korea. Only in the last week or so was there a small outbreak in Seoul because of evangelical right-wingers protesting, and so cafes were takeout only for a few days and restaurants couldn't have in-person dining after 9 p.m. Things look like they're trending back down already. When people are safer, they're more likely to go out in public. Trying not to be too condescending here, but it's not a difficult concept.

Not to mention the human cost. Only 324 people have died in South Korea from covid, in a country of 50 million that's very densely populated.

TomTerrific

August 31st, 2020 at 11:35 PM ^

I don't know what the overall health of the people in South Korea is but 94% of the deaths in the US are to people with comorbidities. Does South Korea have a healthier population than the US?

   

mlax27

August 31st, 2020 at 11:52 PM ^

Yes they are generally healthier and have better healthcare but the reason they are successful here has little to do with that.  They tested and traced early, and wear masks.  It’s easier to control the virus if a few million don’t get it in the first place, you catch it early and everyone wears masks even before   Covid showed up which slowed the spread significantly.

 

Co-morbidity thing is just being overblown and taken out of context.  Most Americans have at least one to begin with, so if course very few deaths will be in people with zero.

TomTerrific

September 1st, 2020 at 9:17 AM ^

How is asking a question spreading public misinformation?  I literally have no idea about the health of South Koreans.  I do know that America is a bunch of fatties and they are finding that obese people appear to be at much more of a risk with this virus.

I also get that this has nothing to do with the spread factor other than if they are healthier, they may have many more asymptomatic people.

Nothing in my comment was misinformation.  It was a question.  I guess when they say no question is a bad question it only applies to non-conservatives.  At least on this board anyway.

LV Sports Bettor

September 1st, 2020 at 4:04 PM ^

could you please cite any evidence at all that shows that people being ignorant about the virus are usually the ones dying from it...................much of this is bad luck combined with bad health. If there was any correlation between say Trump voters (like you are implying) and death it's NOT shown up at all anywhere in any data.

If anything I would argue (with facts if needed) that there seems to be likely more would be democrat minority voters getting this and dying. Either way I keep hearing this on this site all the time that reason why people are getting this has mainly to do with being some kind of so called freedumb (as many claim) folks that are denying the severity of the virus and acting irresponsible and getting the virus.  

This narrative is pushed here and in a big way it seems with again zero data to back it up. Many here have this attitude this is the big problem in this country yet there's NOTHING we know of that supports this being the case. It's mentioned all the time just in this thread with again nothing to back it up. Been hearing this forever on here but no one EVER shows how they know this is the case. I am saying much of this has to do with bad luck more than anything along with likely compromised immune system. Even the talk if most would just wear a mask this would end is preached all he time on here (despite nothing to show that the case throughout world/country). Guess it's just easier to believe something because fits your beliefs. 

Mitch Cumstein

September 1st, 2020 at 8:26 AM ^

I don’t think anyone would disagree that SK crushed this by having testing/tracing in place and getting on it early (In addition to the inherent geographical and cultural advantages wrt controlling virus spread). I question the overly broad brush the OP is painting with though. From the first article:

The report also portrayed the dire situation that the global economy faces under the novel coronavirus, with all member nations posting negative growth forecasts. Turkey and Japan each ranked No. 2 and No. 3 with minus 4.8 percent and minus 6 percent, respectively. Germany and the United States trailed behind at No. 4 and No. 5 with minus 6.6 percent and minus 7.3 percent, respectively.

I guess SK, Germany and Japan have consistently been commended for their pandemic response. US and Turkey haven’t heard quite as much (Published opinions around the US response are almost always negative). The fact that the US ranks higher than every EU country outside of Germany would seem to cut against some of the opinions in the OP.  It would be great if the US become SK or Japan overnight on Feb 20 to avoid initial spread, but that was never going to happen. I think comparing to the EU countries makes more sense, and I’m not sure the data supports the suggestion that the US economy is that much worse off than our EU counterparts.

ak47

September 1st, 2020 at 9:08 AM ^

Well Japan was already in a recession prior to the pandemic and Germany's economy is heavily export based. You are right its not easy to do 1:1 comparisons blindly, economies should be measured against peer economies with similar underlying components. So did taxing a more lax approach approve Sweden's economy when compared to Norway's? 

Bergs

September 1st, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^

I think that's a fair point, however, from my understanding many of the EU countries have higher rates of unionization and broader social safety nets. I believe this would result in less permanent job loss and fewer people falling off a financial cliff. This suggests that once the virus is truly subdued, these countries might have a faster rate of recovery than US? Please, anyone, feel free to correct me if I am completely off base.

BananaRepublic

September 1st, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^

People might also begin to question the East Asian correlation and the importance of coronavirus exposure as it relates to developing a more robust cell-mediated immune response. Kinda crazy how there isn't an East Asian country who didn't "handle this extremely well", while the west and most of the rest of the world hurtled into a disaster. 

NateVolk

September 1st, 2020 at 8:53 AM ^

The only people denying the obvious with how much better SK did things are KAGers.  Their whole deal is save face for 45. And everyone knows they'd be howling at the moon with pitchforks and AR15s in hand if a Democrat had oversaw the death of a scintilla of how many have died in the US the last 6 months.

Vote.

LV Sports Bettor

September 1st, 2020 at 4:20 PM ^

I know this is hard for you to believe but many of us aren't concerned with the president and this has more to do with other factors like at some point quality of life has high value. Doesn't make anyone right/wrong just means they want to live a certain way in their one and only life. Not apologizing for it either cause it's NOT only about looking at death numbers (esp when record keeping is so shoddy and inconsistent from country to country) but instead it's about numerous factors when deciding who handled things better.

Foe example: One could go as far to say look how much better health wise a certain person handled their life just by looking at who lived longer life but might want to factor in all the different experiences one had in his life also along with health. I would rather live to say 75 while experiencing good foods, drinks, taking risks that add stress over someone who never leaves the house and makes it to 90. 

I have a friend now 50 years old who's lived with his parents his entire life who probably has much more money than most people I know BUT he's also doesn't have close to the memories/experiences with loving, laughing, risk taking, playing, etc... He still lives like he's 15 years old doing nothing most here would deem risky, fun, exciting and even sinful haha. Was/is he better with say money because he has more money than most? Not how you measure things. Life isn't that simple. Much more goes into answers just like with how a country has handled the CV. WAY more to life and CV response than simple death numbers. 

ak47

September 1st, 2020 at 9:05 AM ^

Yeah but like wearing a mask is basically capitulating to the nazis and communists at the same time, have you thought about that?

Carpetbagger

September 1st, 2020 at 9:24 AM ^

Short term stats are always fun. So what do you think the numbers will be at the end of the year given they are just now starting to get cases of the "western" version of the Covid?

The whole Far East is going to have to stay locked down for many more months and I still don't think it's going to keep this version out of their countries even with their helpful geography.

China wave 2 should be happening any time now. 

Carpetbagger

September 1st, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^

I had subscribed to that theory early on. I still consider it a very good possibility, and possible mitigating factor in spread for some of those countries. In a purely clinical point of view I'm interested to see what happens in the next few months.

The Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and Korea and all have seen the new Covid recently, albeit not in the numbers we see here. It's in the area, it's just a matter of time. Not everyone flies commercial between those countries.

BananaRepublic

September 1st, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^

I've been watching the Japanese spike. it appears to be past the peak at this point. But that's obviously going to have regional effect (see Spain and Germany, and US of course) i do know that Japan is the #1 tourist destination for Chinese nationals, so it's something to consider. They were also somewhat more lax than , say, South Korea in terms of their stringency of 'lockdown'. 

 

Best regional comparisons I had seen were Malmo and Stockholm which are basically akin to Memphis (TN and AR) or Kansas City (MO and KS) in terms of regional interconnectedness. Weight of the evidence, imo, suggests that structural societal mitigation efforts (NPIs) can delay below a certain population penetrance, but cannot prevent mortality outside of a truly inadequate healthcare system situation. Certain targeted measures seem like good ideas, however.

 

 

bronxblue

September 1st, 2020 at 10:52 AM ^

I bet America leads the world in rate of people who share discredited posts from FB about how the virus is a hoax and wearing a mask robs you of your innate humanity.  So we've at least got that.

LV Sports Bettor

September 1st, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^

Bet U.S has less naive people than probably any country in world, who understand money controls a lot of decisions and that the world is much more complex than just believing what you were told by a government official.

I have said this many times before but look how awful the FDA is with responses about a substance like kratom and the lies pushed by them cause how much it's cut into big Pharma profits and FDA wanting to protect their products. Opiates are way worse for you than kratom but FDA floods us with false information/studies about kratom despite it being much more safety. Look into it's unbelievable.

Would have never believed this 10 years ago but have witnessed this with kratom and the demonizing by FDA with outright lies to protect big pharma, we've seen it with marijuana/mushrooms and LSD being labeled scheduled 1 drugs (blatant lies), seen it testosterone therapy despite thousands of positive studies on it, seen with food pyramid being pushed despite most nutrtionists know it's awful way to eat compared to others, etc...

The point is there's lots of propaganda out there cause of money and those in this country aren't nearly as naive as many others cause of the freedoms we've had in life to explore much of what we have been told and so we don't just believing everything is as they say. 

 

4th phase

September 1st, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^

This is pretty much what every non idiot knew back in March. Economies are driven my consumer sentiment, when people are dying and things are uncertain, people are not going to go out and spend disposable income. It’s why we saw runs on canned goods and toilet paper and not stores running out of 70” TVs and new laptops. 
The best way to save the economy is to contain the virus, by wearing masks and social distancing. Sacrificing health in the name of the economy is not going to work, despite what Fox News has been pushing. But again every non idiot already knew that.