So, how many points would it take?

Submitted by uofmdds96 on

Hypothetically, let's say you are down $200 to you buddy after picking Michigan over Minnesota, and State over OSU.  Now he wants to go double or nothing on Saturday and will give you 21.  Are you still comfortable?  I am going to push for 28 and settle for 24.  Do you think that this is enough to comfortably watch the game up 24-0 to start?  I think that is a hell of a margin to overcome with our team trying their hearts out for Brady (assuming that they did not check out earlier in the season) and the fact that both coordinators are coaching possibly their last games for Michigan.  24 and I am in.  21, sadly, I am nervous.

WolverinePatron

November 27th, 2014 at 7:43 PM ^

21, take it. Brady is going all in, and players are too. Gardner and Butt are getting healthier every week, and Gardner will play great. Think of last year..... push for 24, if he says no, take 21 and know that you will be even after the game. I say Osu wins by 13.

michgoblue

November 27th, 2014 at 7:49 PM ^

Here's my thoughts:



The good:



1. despite his other problems, Hoke has played well against OSU. Likely, because he places a ton of importance on this one game.



2. Our defense is not bad. We do really well against crap offenses and tend to do moderately against good offenses. OSU is the latter, so I expect that we will do "ok" but not great. I still have some faith in GMAT to bring enough variety to confuse a first year - albeit talented - QB and OL.



3. It's a rivalry game and - see last year - odd stuff happens in rivalry games. Not necessarily calling for the upset, but at a minimum, enough fluky stuff could transpire to keep us closer than we should be.



4. Our OL is really improving, as is our rushing game. We might be able to field a somewhat balanced attach.



So, that's the good. Now for the bad:



1. Out offense is not good. Despite point 4 above, we just are not a good offense.



2. We are at a decided coaching disadvantage.



3. Our special teams are a complete disaster, worth around 7 points net advantage for OSU alone.



4. OSU is playing for a playoff spot and needs to win big after last week. Our team is playing for nothing and folds at the first sign of adversity.



5. On the road.



Taking it all together, I expect that our defense can keep it close for 1.5 quarters, but that before the half, OSU will pull away. If that happens, look out - it could be a blowout.



I wouldn't take us +21. To feel somewhat safe, I would need 25 or more.

tpilews

November 27th, 2014 at 10:54 PM ^

"We might be able to field a somewhat balanced attach"

I find it funny, how in your hypothetical, that your keyboard wouldn't let you spell attack right. Even it knew how ridiculous that sounded. 

bluewoody

November 27th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^

Cut your losses and don't touch this one. Michigan has been an utter disappointment all year. What leads you (or anyone) to believe they will rise up for this game? Michigan is not good in any facet of the game. If someone says defense please remind me of the bowl game we are going to in December? I'm sorry for sounding like a jerk but I am sick of our poor lackluster performance all season. We get murdered on Saturday and, thankfully,it is over.

GoBlueSimon

November 27th, 2014 at 8:25 PM ^

There's one thing that Brady Hoke has done well at Michigan.  That's play Ohio State well.  He's 1-2 and all 3 games were 1 possession games.  He had titanium nuts last year going for 2.  He may not be the head coach come Monday morning, but he still has put all in against Ohio State.

If that friend gave me 14 points I'd take that bet.

bo_lives

November 27th, 2014 at 9:23 PM ^

where going 1-2 against OSU - with one 6 point win against a 6-7 team in a transition year with no coach and a true freshman QB - is considered "playing OSU well." Guess that's the way it is. I feel lucky to have seen one victory over each of OSU/MSU as a student at UofM, but the truth is, I was in seventh grade for Michigan's last great victory over Ohio State.

bo_lives

November 27th, 2014 at 9:11 PM ^

Your friend seems quite prescient. Picking the road underdog both times is balsy yet both those games were hardly even close.

Unless he gives you OSU -50 I would advise pay up and not make any more bets this year.

nowicki2005

November 27th, 2014 at 9:12 PM ^

has to destroy Michigan. Michigan is not regarded well at all in college football right now and for OSU to keep making their playoff push they have to absolutely blow Michigan out. anything even moderately close will just add to the critics' reasons why OSU shouldn't be in the playoff

Baughlieve

November 27th, 2014 at 9:23 PM ^

This team has not quit on Hoke and OSU is overrated. They have only played and beaten one good team(MSU) all year. Minnesota and Indiana kept it close and both teams have abysmal passing games. In case people forgot, they even needed overtime(and some help from the refs) to beat Penn State. I also think Mattison will mix things up and find a way to unsettle Barrett. If Gardner doesn't turn the ball over(poor guy is long overdue to have a good game), I think we'll keep it close and might even pull off the upset.

WolverineOptimist

November 27th, 2014 at 9:32 PM ^

21 is good, but push for 24. 21 It's about a 80% to win with 21. Gardner/Butt are getting healthier every day, and Hoke is going to make it close. He is going to fight for his job, just like the rest of the staff. Seniors including Gardner will leave it all on the field, could even result in a Michigan win.

UM Indy

November 27th, 2014 at 10:02 PM ^

Remember this team is God awful on the road. I'm trying to think of anyone they have beaten on the road aside from Northwestern and UConn. They're not mentally tough enough to go to Ohio Stadium and win, even if they are playing their hearts out for Brady. They'll find a way to fuck it up if they manage to stay in the game. Sorry for the eruption of negativity but that's the way it is. Saturday is to be endured, nothing more, and then we move on to the next chapter.

gwkrlghl

November 27th, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^

but based on how Hoke's teams have always played vs OSU, I'd say...30? On some miracle day, I could see us holding OSU to 24-28. Even then, I see no scenario where our flaccid offense scores more than that

swamyblue

November 27th, 2014 at 11:22 PM ^

At the horseshoe? Consider the following...Gardener has look like crap all season. JT Barrett has a decent Russ Wilson impersonation. The Buckeyes need a big score for playoff consideration. Give me 32!



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ghostofhoke

November 28th, 2014 at 9:08 AM ^

Let's face it, our special teams has been flirting with a -14 all season. This could be the week, maybe even a -21. All the mistakes that we've gotten away with all season will likely be punished when we make them this week. If you don't think Urbz is prepared for our vaunted 10 men play you're crazy.




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Blue Balls

November 28th, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^

atleast you'll be able to explain the pain when your done.  Seriously, put done the N20.  This season has been bad enough on all of us, don't make it any worse for  yourself.