Shutouts: over/under

Submitted by uofmchris on

I'll set the bar at 3 (same as last year) and take the over.

Looking at the schedule, and the competetiveness that Harbaugh has instilled in his team, I'll go out on a limb and take the over. I see 4 games that could be potential shutouts:

  • Hawaii
  • UCF
  • Colorado
  • Rutgers 
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LJ

August 11th, 2016 at 12:15 PM ^

Shutouts are hard.  3 is a ridiculous number.  How many teams in the country have hit 3 shutouts in a single year over the past decade?

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uofmchris

August 11th, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^

Agreed, however on top of Michigans 3 shutouts last year, they also held 3 teams (including SEC Florida) to 7 points. 

With the hype train of this years defense being full steam, I feel we can at least get 3.

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LJ

August 11th, 2016 at 12:40 PM ^

Alabama has made 3 shutouts in a season 3 times since Saban has been there (9 years), which is incredibly impressive.  I'd be surprised if even another 3 teams did it in that same span, including us last year.

It's definitely possible for this defense, but even if you set the over/under at 2, you'd have to be pretty crazy to think it's at least even money that Michigan hits 3.

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gwkrlghl

August 11th, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^

New defensive system early in the year, then once we're used to it we'll be in the meat of the schedule.

I think you'll see multiple single-digit defensive performances but even UNLV got 7 last year. As noted above, shutouts are hard.

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mgowild

August 11th, 2016 at 1:13 PM ^

Shutouts do require some good fortune, mostly by forcing the opponent into long drives and not giving up big special teams plays. Rutgers was identified as a potential shutout victim and they put up 16 in the first half last year. That's not to say they won't get shut out this year, but a turnover at midfield or a good punt return and all the sudden the opponent is in FG range. Plus, even bad teams usually muster a decent drive or two per game.

That being said, I'd be happy with two shutouts this season: MSU and OSU. 

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stephenrjking

August 11th, 2016 at 1:31 PM ^

Good points. I think "good fortune" might overstate it a bit. The defense can be absolutely dominant all season and not force a single shutout. All it takes is a PI call to get a team into field goal range, or a fumbled handoff, or whatever. It's not that easy to force shutouts. 

I would be delighted with another 3 shutouts, but I'll take the under, even if the defense overall is better than last season.

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jdemille9

August 11th, 2016 at 12:18 PM ^

Could very well shutout all those teams, but I'm gonna take the under. I think it'll take a couple weeks for these guys to really grasp (work out the kinks) Don Brown's super aggressive system and I think it'll cause a busted play here and there giving up a long TD to a couple teams early on. 

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amaizenblue402

August 11th, 2016 at 12:19 PM ^

I'll say we only get 1 this year. That will be against UCF.

That's not saying I don't believe in this defense, I definitely do and think they'll be great. But, shutouts are pretty rare and a lot of things have to go right to not give up even a single field goal.

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DrMantisToboggan

August 11th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^

I'll go under. There will be some learning curve with the new system. Obviously those teams are ass, but it's so hard to shut out a D1 team. I'll say we get 2. Illinois and Penn State are shutout candidates as well.



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RockinLoud

August 11th, 2016 at 12:24 PM ^

I'll be shocked if we shutout UCF. Oregon OC Scott Frost is now their coach. Even for a winless team last year and only the second game of the season, the dude knows how to coach offense.

Honestly I'd be very surprised if we got more than one shutout, if any at all. Shutouts are really hard to do, we had some luck go our way last season as I recall at least one missed field goal (think it was Northwestern).

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MChem83

August 11th, 2016 at 12:34 PM ^

Keeping our starters in on D deep into the fourth quarter of a blowout just to keep the other team off the board completely is a mistake. We need to keep our starters from getting worn down, and get as many newer guys PT as possible, in preparation for next year. Yeah, shutouts are cool, and they get you some buzz, but there's no REAL benefit to winning 42-0 instead of 42-7. I'm still not convinced that Harbaugh didn't overuse our first string D last year in trying to preserve shutouts. Right after that third shutout was when our defensive performance started to tank.

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DGM06

August 11th, 2016 at 12:37 PM ^

Definitely would take the under purely based on how unlikely 4+ shutouts would be in a season. This defense will hold a bunch of teams to single digits though.

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