Seth Davis ranks Michigan #1

Submitted by ChalmersE on December 1st, 2019 at 11:28 PM

Posted a tweet a little while ago. At least one pundit is buying all the way in.

ColoradoBlue

December 1st, 2019 at 11:34 PM ^

From unranked to at least one vote for #1.  Warm and fuzzies all around.

But that's a bit premature.  Top 15 for sure.  Top 10... why not.  But that's good enough.

Starko

December 2nd, 2019 at 12:59 AM ^

Yes, but according to Bart Torvik, we are #6.  UNC is only #22 there, and Iowa State #44 (Gonzaga appears to be a legit top 10).  I'm super psyched about this team, and I'm holding out hope this is real, but you could definitely justify not putting us all the way up to #1 right now.  Now, if we beat Louisville on the road on Tuesday, I don't think you can put us anywhere else but #1. 

Starko

December 2nd, 2019 at 1:22 AM ^

If you're saying Michigan has better quality wins than anyone else at this point, I agree with you. I just don't think voters are or should be limited to resume in voting for which team they think is best, particularly when the sample sets are still very small. I don't think Stephen F. Austin is better than Duke. 

B-Nut-GoBlue

December 2nd, 2019 at 2:35 AM ^

Don't disagree with any of that per se but will also say the voters aren't necessarily great at what they do.  Lots of teams get votes because of their school initials.  And no SFA isn't better than Duke...they lost to Rutgers the game prior to the Duke win.  However, if they were undefeated I opine they should be ranked above Duke.  Until Duke starts playing ACC games and acruing much better wins than SFA will get.  Again, not really/truly arguing anything, more getting down to the voting system is quite flawed.

There's so much time for things to work themselves out and a December ranking means diddly squat in the overall scheme of things, of course.  But if it were a just world (lulz...especially when discussing anything NCAA) I can't see how any team should be ranked ahead of us come Monday morning...unless people were to suddenly consider Gonzaga and UNC very mediocre teams.  Even then they'd still be on a list of better wins than 99% of all other teams have.  And it's not like we're a team of unknowns.  We bring back a set of players with decent-to-really good bonafides!

My name ... is Tim

December 2nd, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^

It's premature only if you take the rankings to be some sort of forward-looking metric at who the ultimate national champion will be. I don't know why you would do that in a sport where the champion is ultimately determined by a 68 team single elimination tournament, but I guess many voters do engage in that. Michigan has the best resume to date by a wide margin and absolutely deserves to be ranked #1. Do I think they'll win the national title? No, but what's the point of even playing the games if the rankings only reflect what each voter thinks hypothetically will happen on some mythical neutral floor event between all the teams.

MichiganStan

December 1st, 2019 at 11:50 PM ^

I think AP puts us at #4 tomorrow, but if we beat soon to be #1 Louisville then we'll jump to #1

1. Louisville 2. Maryland 3. Virginia 4. Michigan

But I also could see AP voters for some reason put 6-1 Kansas ahead of us too so maybe 5th at worst

Sledgehammer

December 2nd, 2019 at 1:25 AM ^

That's a reasonable take. I really don't understand how people think we should be outside the top 10. We have TWO top 10 wins in the past week and are undefeated. We weren't ranked because of question marks, not lack of perceived ability. The questions have been answered emphatically and a top 5 rank is deserved. 

stephenrjking

December 2nd, 2019 at 12:25 AM ^

Agree with those who say top ten, win at Louisville (let's not get ahead of ourselves here, this team is still sloppy and that's a *tough* road game--hardly a disaster if we lose), and Michigan is ranked #1 next week. But:

1. Louisville, if they get it, is just inheriting the ranking anyway because voters have no idea who's the best and they haven't played anyone;

2. These rankings mean absolutely zero.

What I want to know is whether or not Michigan's new defensive scheme can slow down Cassius Winston, or whether the team can put together something like this miraculous shooting record when MSU's defense is bombarding them. 

(Seriously, regarding Cassius, we know he'll be back in top form by January when the first game takes place. Juwan seems really good at forcing midrange jumpers, and while Winston would probably take those and make a fair share, perhaps that's first move in a chess match that does a better job than what Michigan produced last season). 

stephenrjking

December 2nd, 2019 at 12:44 AM ^

Indeed. Every year they start overhyped and get beaten by elite teams, but last season they surprised me with how they molded things together into a cohesive unit, and the results on the floor spoke for themselves. I really want to beat them this year, and from an objective standpoint the Simpson/Winston rivalry is one that is approaching legendary status. 

A Lot of Milk

December 2nd, 2019 at 12:49 AM ^

I personally feel like Michigan is much more equipped to handle MSU this year. X had some rough games holding up Cassius but we were definitely in all three games. The connecting thread? Poole got roasted in every one of them. Especially in Chicago, it was painfully bad. But MSU lost a huge dynamic of their offense by losing Goins and McQuaid. I like our match ups much more this year and think Juwan can be even in this rivalry right from the jump

Jonesy

December 2nd, 2019 at 1:29 AM ^

They got better last year on accident.

  • Nick Ward got hurt so
    • tillman got all the playing time as he should have
    • they stopped running all game like they should have
    • they stopped running post up offense
  • langfor got hurt so
    • they stopped giving half the possessions to him and he was terribly inefficient
    • every possession became pick and roll with cassius winston who is great at it

If they had no injuries last year we beat them at least 2 out of 3 and they bow out in the first few rounds of the tournament. Izzo fell ass-backwards into the right scheme due to injuries forcing him to stop doing dumb shit.

FreddieMercuryHayes

December 2nd, 2019 at 8:39 AM ^

It will be interesting to see how they defend Winston.  I think they may just go with, if Winston can single handedly beat them, then so be it.  I know he's got a killer floater so the drop defense they're running is not the best for him, but a lot of what made MSU so effective last year as an offense was, first the transition, and second is that they had a lot of shooters.  They may run stuff that looks like it's for Winston to make a play, but it was really action to get McQuid or Goins an open look from deep.  Those guys are gone now, so I'm kind of in the thought that if you can make one player try and beat you, do that strategy.  If he scores 35 on two point floaters but gets only like 3 assists, I think I would take that.

waliwiz1

December 2nd, 2019 at 7:42 AM ^

Be satisfied with a very good team and the rankings will work themselves out. I prefer to just enjoy watching than thinking about the rankings. Some sunshine rays after the Saturday debacle.

outsidethebox

December 2nd, 2019 at 8:30 AM ^

Rankings at this time of the year are only good for their entertainment value. "Objectively" Michigan appears to be #1.

What I am thrilled about Michigan's season up to this point is that Juwan Howard is demonstrating that he is one hell of a coach who has put together a fantastic staff. This is a winning style of offense that is very difficult to defend and is sustainable. I love defense-and this team can still defend. Howard is my kind of guy...he is unabashedly his own self and he thinks, believes and acts OUTSIDETHEBOX!!! Hooray for him.

This team has the length, quickness, strength, speed and size to defend at every level. All this was pretty much an unknown-and now we know. The bottom line is that this is how the game is supposed to be played and that these kids are playing this well coming out of the chute speaks volumes about both the players and coaches. With all the unknowns this roster held and a new coaching staff I thought, preseason, that this could well be a .500 team that would struggle to make post-season play. There will surely be bumps in this year's journey but they are now, just as surely, heading toward being contenders for high honors.