Semi-OT: 538 Breaks Down the Deflategate Report
FiveThirtyEight has a nice breakdown of the Deflategate Report. It is presented in the form of a conversation between two of their contributors.
For those who aren't familiar with 538, it was originally an independent website created by Nate Silver, who rose to fame in the statistics community with incredibly accurate, data-based projections of the 2008 presidential race. Since that time, he has only grown in acclaim.
He eventually teamed with the NYTimes, but that relationship ended after a year or so. Now, 538 is an ESPN-sponsored site. If that seems strange, know that Nate Silver's original passion is baseball. He LOVES baseball statistics. 538 covers all sorts of topics, but sports is a big part of the coverage.
Anyway, with that introduction, here is the commentary:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/
I would also encourage interested MGoBloggers to check out the Sports section of 538. It has a lot of interesting articles:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/
EDIT: To be clear, I have ZERO affiliation with 538. I just think it's a great website.
EDIT2: Changed my commentary on the NYTimes affiliation based on a comment below.
Knows no bounds.
however, it seems that the standard of evidence is not well defined. The conclusions use murky, vague language, and there are many unanswered questions. It does look like something was amiss, but I refuse to make the logical leaps against Brady or Belichick some others are making. Whatever the case, I am sure the Patriots will be more astute at ensuring proper inflation in the future. Hopefully, that is the end result of all this reporting.
If players didn't cheat, they wouldn't have penalties. There were 13.3 penalties called per game in 2014 according to sportingcharts.com. In other words, players were called for breaking rules 13.3 times in every game.
So, what's the fucking problem here?
Wish they would have talked more about the text messages in the article. When the equipment guys are texting each other and saying that Tom has directed them to deflate balls that is much more persuasive evidence for me than any of the stats I have seen so far.
Interesting graphic in that report. Pats (10,000:1 chance that low fumble rate is due to chance) is far beyond other teams...but so are the Falcons and Ravens and...where do you draw the line?
Well the Falcons also pump in crowd noise.
So does Washington. I was at the Seahawks playoff game where RGIII's knee met its maker and they were for sure pumping in noise. It was so obvious.
That Poisson distribution only assumes random chance if I get this correctly, yet that discounts other assumptions. One assumption that could help skew that data is the fact that the Patriots were really good over a long time or that they throw the ball alot. That statistic only assumes one variable, yet the fact that they have the best QB of all time and a proven winning mentality definitly alters those odds down.
ANOVA anyone?
Is it plausible that "low ball pressure" is a reasonable explanation for that though? "Not chance" does not mean "definitely cheating"
Has anybody actually looked into required grip strength on properly vs. underinflated footballs?
Anyway I still think the whole thing is dumb, since temperature swings, the small range of "legal" pressures, and the crude/inconsistent means of checking pressure make me believe that 50% of NFL balls are probably outside the range on any given game day, even if no one is trying to make them that way.
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I'm glad to see the NFL put a bright light on this, rather than focusing on things like concussions (both from the field of play and from domestic violence).
My view - Of course Brady knew that the balls were on the low side of the pressure equation. Anyone who has thrown a football (esp. in cold weather) knows that by feel. Did he know the exact PSI? Doubtful. Did the equipment staff know what pressure Brady likes? Almost certainly. In my mind, it gives Brady plausible deniability, and does not taint his legacy one bit. Especially since, like George Brett's pine tar bat a generation before*, there are reputedly many pro QBs who work to ensure they have balls inflated to their liking.
But the real point is that the NFL has people talking about this minor issue which does no damage to the game, while deflecting attention from major issues (concussions, domestic violence, character issues, PEDs, etc.) that do some damage to the game.
Well-played, NFL. Well-played.
*Very like that pine tar bat situation, in fact. In both situations, it seems that the rules violation was well-known, and only brought up strategically when it suited the accusers. In both situations, the real advantage was negligible.
Also, releasing the report after the draft keeps the NFL in the news cycle.
If Brady knew the balls were underinflated, he may decide he likes them with a little more air after he torched the Colts in the second half with fully inflated footballs, and had a nice game in the SB under like conditions. Sure, you shouldn't look for little edges outside the rules, but given how those games unfolded "what difference, at this point, does it make," to quote one Presidential candidate.
The biggest story of the Super Bowl should have been Kam Chancellor's hit on Julian Edelman in the 4th quarter. Not only was a helmet-to-helmet hit not called, but Edelman was allowed to stay in the game when it is 99% sure he was concussed.
Thus, when it was important, the NFL didn't flag a brain-rattling hit, nor did it care that a very, very likely concussed player was still out there running around. Edelman literally could have been killed if he received another head shot like that, as 2nd concussions are very dangerous.
One positive: quietly, after the season, the NFL changed its rules (which, in theory would prevent Shane Morris or Julian Edelman situations).
But sure...let's focus on the proper inflation of footballs. Because, the children.
Get this pro Spartan crap out of here and go back to RCMB sparty
Yeah, he's a Sparty fan (which I didn't realize actually).
But he's also a great statistician and has hired some great statisticians for his website.
In fact, he's not actually involved in this particular conversation.
He was born in East Lansing, which unfortunately for him likely decided his fate before he had a chance to choose rationally. Still pretty cool that he's from Michigan.
But someone needs to tell him that Sparty fans believe you cannot be a fan of the school unless you attended. Silver is a Walmart'n Spartan and deserving of derision in their eyes. I say root for whoever you like.
Comes from Tom Brady's agent. Takes coming in hot:
Statement from Tom Brady's agent, Don Yee: "The Wells report, with all due respect, is a significant and terrible...
Posted by Adam Schefter on Thursday, May 7, 2015
Adam Schefter
What does the fact that the law firm is affiliated with the NFL have to do with its objectivity? Of course the NFL is going to hire a firm that is works with closely.
I don't read that as Schefter agreeing with Yee, but just presenting his statement.
I still respect Tom Brady and I think he is and will continue to serve as a great ambassador for Michigan, but this statement is damage control.
This has nothing to do with Schefter besides him posting the entire text. Just saying his agent has quite the hot take about the process.
Doesn't a preconceived relationship go to the heart of objectivity? Why would that firm want to burn a pretty lucrative bridge?
If football inflation is such a big issue and a major advantage and the league was warned in advance, why the hell wouldn't they check the footballs at kickoff and take whatever action at that point? Why wait until a huge portion of the game is played?
They also should have done the same thing to every other team to see if the "cheating was only New England or if it was throughout the league.
In reality the simple solution would have been to warn all teams that the balls were subject to random testing throughout the game. They wanted to catch New England "cheating" is the only explanation and it had nothing to do with integrity of the game.
The fact that they allow it suggests they've always been aware that teams manipulate them to their desired condition.
Otherwise, why not just have both teams play with the same balls?
The NFL is so corrupt. It's disgusting.
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It's not hard to think up a reason why they would not be objective...is it surpsising to think that the NFL would want this as a big story to distract from the myriad other stories like domestic abuse? I mean, look at the reactions from it's talking piece ESPN. They all say it's a huge deal. Is it? Is it really?
It doesn't read as damage control...in fact it raises quite a few legit issues in my mind. How can they possibly say that Brady's refusal to hand over his cell phone is evidence of his guilt? This is one example of the "multiple interpretations" that Brady's agent raised as an issue.
At a minimum, if you are conducting an investigation you need to be independent in fact as well as appearance. That is why when companies are faced with a whistleblower allegation and need to perform an investigation, they generally do not retain their regular corporate counsel and hire outside counsel with whom they have had no prior relationship.
I seriously doubt Ted Wells or a well regarded firm like Paul Weiss would purposefully be biased but it does make you wonder if there was inadvertant or confirmation bias (e.g., find facts against Pats more persuasive than those that are murkier)
the actions they are accused of ......... but this statement from Brady's agent reads A LOT like the statement from the Paterno family after the Freeh Report got released.
None of what Yee says is necessarily incorrect. But ultimately this boils down to one thing: either Brady knew or he didn't know. Brady of course knows the answer to that question --- in this deflategate situation, he's really the ONLY one who really knows the answer to that question. Others can draw conclusions, but it's nothing definite.
Given that an independent investigator is not a criminal courtroom (and, of course, deflategate is not an issue that will ever make a criminal courtroom) ----- I will take Brady at his word when he says "I didn't know." New England would have won that game against Indianapolis (and all the other games they've won in recent years) anyway.
I don't get it. If a slightly underflated ball is beneficial to the players, then why is the league not allowing it?
this will be the norm.
That football would be really hard to throw any significant distance.
I bet no ball carrier ever fumbles one like that.
Finally...someone has the courage to comment on this so-called "Deflategate." I really don't understand why ESPN and other media outlets are ignoring this. I look forward to hearing about this.
the amount of time, energy, and money spent on this subject just because of some whine-cryin' over air pressure. CHEATERS!!FLOG THEM ALL!!
No ones cares that strongly about the deflated balls themselves (or at least they shouldn't). But the Patriots now have a history of going out of their way to strech the rules and subsequently dodging the NFL. Makes me wonder what else mastermind Bill has attemplted in the last decade. And Kraft playing the victim card is hilarious - nobody has any sympathy for the Pats.
Nate SIlver's relationship with the Times was far from "unsuccessful", it was wildly popular during the elections. Problem is, he was not a regular employee but a freelancer and the Times has been slashing outside costs (as well as internal costs). Combine that with the fact that he loves sports analysis, especially baseball as you say, and ESPN has boatloads of money, which the Times doesn't have, and his departure was inevitable.
My recollection is that the times wanted to keep him, but he wanted more dough and ESPN (and ABC) offered more.
BTW, Nate used to represent Baseball Prospectus in Tout Wars, the site that sponsors "expert" fantasy baseball leagues. Nate and I overlapped one year in the NL-only version of Tout Wars. i finished ahead of him -- and I wasn't in the first division.
ESPN gets about $5 per month from just about every household with cable/statellite/FIOS in the US, whether or not they watch sports. The Times, doesn't. ESPN gets what it wants, with rare exceptions. Can't blame Nate, sports is a lot more fun than politics.
With all the bullshit that is going on in the Sports world (and the rest of the world) why does anybody give a fuck about this?
Right! I mean come on, the whole domestic violence issue should be front and center, but instead we are talking about a couple balls with low PSI
Because the NFL told it's mouthpiece to change the topic away from the fact their players do morally reprehensible things on levels that far exceed that of the general population
Because it's Tom Brady and the Pats. Haters gonna hate.
hmmm, NFL hot topics today Deflategate, should be ban Brady........NFL cold topics they are trying to push to the way side....Beating women, beating children, beating wifes....
My questions/thoughts on the report other than that the rule is stupid and patriots personnel were deflating balls after official inspection.
There's really no evidence that Brady asked that the balls be illegally tampered with rather than at the low end of the allowable pressure. The only direct mention of Brady in the texts that are a large part of the "case," is that he is expressing his belief that patriots personnel should prevent officials from pumping up balls beyond 12.5 psi. The other mention of Brady understanding it is a "stressful" job or whatever could mean anything.
Who knows how long this was going on. Only an offhand mention in the texts of the guy calling himself "the deflator" serves as a basis for any belief that it wasn't just a result of Brady being pissed that the officials overinflated game balls for one game.
What about road games? The report basically said that the Colts, as the road team, had no chance to tamper with game balls after inspection. So are we to understand that the Patriots only tampered with game balls at home? Seems like this would be a problem with the conclussion that the Patriots are only good because of the deflated ball. This would also apply to 538's facination with the Patriots' fumble rates.
The Patriots' fumble rate is very interesting, and it deserves more attention just out of interest (whoever mentioned it in the 538 piece did in fact do an analysis of their low rate occurring by chance and they are an outlier). It is either an unexpected benefit of Tom Brady's preference for low inflation, or an indication that some unnamed evil genius figured out that ball inflation can impact several aspects of the game. Or it's just random.
Or some other reason, like coaching (Tiki Barber greatly reduced his fumble rate mid-career), play design that doesn't lead to a lot of WRs getting hit shortly after gaining possession, etc. I don't doubt in theory that having a lower psi in the footballs could make it easier to hold onto the ball, but I imagine it is a minimal advantage.
Maybe, but I doubt that coaching could produce such an outlier. NE undoubtedly has an outstanding coaching staff, and Belichick is known for drilling people about details, but it's tough to explain how different they are.