mesmerism! presidential assassinations! circuses on fire!
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|26 weeks 2 days ago||Yes and no||
Informative. The theme is correct as well as the general conclusion - it's very unlikely our next coach is going to have a Bo or even Carr length career at Michigan.
However, there is a logic gap in your extrapolation. A current coach who has been at a program for less than 10 years could still possibly remain at the school past the 10 year mark.
If I had to guess, I would say out of the current NCAA football coaches about a third of them will stay at their resepective program past that 10 year mark.
|29 weeks 4 days ago||Great write-up||
Love the comment about the need for medical staff to have override power.
For that matter, teammates should have override power. As part of their onboarding and at least annual team meetings, as a major college football player you should explicitly be given the charge to have the courage to intervene. If you are an OL, and you see your quarterback a few yards away stumbling around you with symptoms - man up, tell him to sit down and let the medical staff take a look at him.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||Don't forget Mike Hart as a cornerback||
Tom Lemming rated Mike Hart the Number 6 cornerback nationally that particular recruiting year.
|1 year 15 weeks ago||Pete Carroll||
I understand your point.
However, last I checked, Pete Carroll was doing pretty well for himself without Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, or Norm Chow.
|1 year 15 weeks ago||Semi circular argument||
Offense can also help defense. It works both ways - if the offense stays on the field, the defense stays off the field.
|1 year 21 weeks ago||Clock Management||
The clock management at the end of the game didn't bother me. They were putting all of their eggs into one basket and they were in FG range before the fumble. A few more plays and a tying or go-ahead score and there wouldn't be enough time for Iowa to retake the lead.
The running plays of course did bother me just as much as they did you.
|1 year 22 weeks ago||Yes but also||
They may have given up a lot of yards, but they also forced 4 turnovers and scored 7 themselves. The defense is far from perfect, but they are not the issue here.
|1 year 22 weeks ago||My take||
1. Rule changes - why shoot for 100 yards rushing when it's just as easy to get 300 passing (or 400)
2. Partially related, running backs have become more of a commodity. I can't be for sure as to why, but there doesn't seem to be much separating a first rounder from a mid-round back these days. For every Adrian Peterson, there's a Trent Richardson.
|1 year 22 weeks ago||Good stuff as always||
Always enjoy your posts.
Interesting that the Lions had a decently similar situation that ended up not working out for them. Of course a 9-6 game is usually a lot different than a 27-23 game, NFL vs college differences, etc.
Would be interested in seeing the analysis for the Lions if you have an opportunity - Mike and Mike were critical of the decision this morning but of course when talking about the Michigan game only talked about the FG to end regulation and how Northwestern keeps finding ways to lose - I didn't hear mention of M's 4th down situation.
|1 year 23 weeks ago||Drive starting at NW 11||
He must not be giving the offense credit for the FG on the drive that started at the NW 11 yard line. I can't blame him - the offense didn't exactly earn that field position.
|1 year 23 weeks ago||Informative||
Really liked the first down stats. Out of those 26 first downs to only see 1 incompletion (and 3 total bad results from the passing game) - that's rather telling.
Would prefer more short passing on 1st down - tell Gardner if the first read or two isn't open to throw it away. Heck - I would rather see the chuck it deep every play offense; I can live with the occaisonal arm punt .
|1 year 24 weeks ago||Is Speilman available?||
Can we get Speilman to run our offense?
I guess that would make him the anti-Boren.
|1 year 24 weeks ago||Don't forget||
Don't forget, we had a drive start at the Neb 42 in the first half (when they punted from their 1 yard line). No points on that drive either.
|1 year 24 weeks ago||No more excuses||
3 drives starting at the opponent's 40 yard line or better . . . 3 points to show for it (from a long field goal that had a fortuitous bounce off the upright).
You can make up all the excuses you want, but this offense still has Gallon, Funchess, Gardner, Lewan, and Schofield and yet it seems completely incompetent. That incompetence is one thing against the #1 defense in the country, but against this Nebraska squad at home - there can be no excuses.
|1 year 24 weeks ago||Bball and football differences||
The Novak and Douglass contributions were undeniable. However in basketball, it is a lot more common than football to get big contributions from underclassmen. In 2010-11, a sophomore Darius Morris was a huge part of that tournament run. And last year of course, a sophomore Trey Burke (along with several freshmen) were instrumental to the team's success.
In basketball, the top prospects are often ready to go right to the NBA after a year or two of college. Football is of course very different in that respect - so although Hoke has been recruiting well, that is not going to immediately translate to on-field success.
|1 year 26 weeks ago||You are correct - about 42-43%||
Page 123. It varies from year to year. For 2012, there were 108 makes on 261 attempts - 41.4%.
Interestingly on page 122 - statistically speaking you are more likely to make a 50 yard FG in college than a 2 point conversion attempt (though the FG number has a larger problem with selection bias).
|1 year 27 weeks ago||Agree||
Whether you are an old school coach that has been through hundreds of games or just a coach potato like me who likes to look at some stats, we all implicitly or explicitly subscribe to some type of situational football strategy. Because these strategies are all based on prior experiences, by default they average everything - they work best if your team is average in every facet of the game and so is your opponent.
To make these strategies truly effective, you need to be able to make some tweaks. A 6-3 game is very different from a 50-47 game, and playing a cupcake is a little different than playing Alabama or your biggest rival (to use a few extremes).
When you have essentially zero production from your running backs, it is appropriate to tweak your game theory strategy. We can certainly argue about what exactly that might be, but presumably it would be anything other than I-form HB run between the tackles.
|1 year 27 weeks ago||Perspective||
I know the fan base is feeling down after the loss and some lingering effects of Akron and UConn.
Let's remember that our team is 5-1. That one loss was on the road in 4OT against a 4-2 team - although we had plenty of chances to win that game, it was a small miracle to be in the game at all after committing 3 1st half turnovers and falling down 11 points.
While no one is going to confuse this Michigan squad for a BCS bowl contender, we still control our own destiny in the Big Ten. No game is guaranteed, but there's really only one game that I would have difficulty imagining Michigan winning. Everyone else in the division has serious flaws that could be exposed on the right night.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||Whatever man||
Let's just say the Michigan receivers impressed me a little more than our quarterback did - though Gardner deserves credit as well.
You can quote a quarterback's stats, but it still takes somebody on the other end catching it. This isn't every throw in either case mind you but there were a few Gardner incompletions vs Akron and Connecticut that weren't any less accurate than some of the throws that were completions against Minnesota.
I did watch some NFL today, and I saw some balls touch receivers fingers and go to the turf. That is not something I recall seeing much of from Funchess and company yesterday - maybe the throw that was a bit high for Dileo.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||Gardner inaccuracy||
To be fair, I thought that Gardner was fairly inaccurate against Minnesota. However, unlike the last couple of games, our receivers actually managed to catch some of the difficult ones.
Take a look back at the game tape and you'll see more often than not that our receivers were catching balls thrown well behind them. The Funchess snag at the goal line to me typified the sort of throws Gardner had - I'm very glad those balls were thrown in spots such that the defense wasn't going to pick it off but as a fan I have to give a lot of credit to the young men catching the ball.
|1 year 33 weeks ago||All is right with the world||
This game was eerily similar to the earlier Georgia - SC game. Both games featured 2 Top 25 teams. In both cases, the lower ranked team, playing at home, got up multiple scores early and despite the opponent closing to within 34-30 was able to hold on for a 41-30 win.
|1 year 46 weeks ago||Doubt he comes back||
Good for Juwan - always a very likeable athlete. Something tells me he's not coming back - only 51 regular season minutes and 0 in the playoffs - I don't think he even dresses most nights unless there's injury/suspension.
He's known for motivational speeches - hope he has a career as a coach.
|2 years 6 weeks ago||Very good stuff||
I forgot how terribly calculated our out of conference strength of schedule was.
Gonzaga - they have one team on their schedule that is currently ranked in the AP Top 25 (Oklahoma State).
Michigan - has 9: Pitt, K State, Ohio (x2), Indiana (x2), Wisconsin, Mich St (x2)
Goes to show that some of those SOS calculations used are absolute bogus.
|2 years 11 weeks ago||Who cares about coaches? QB is where it's at||
The Manning family is pissed that they haven't been mentioned in this thread yet.
|2 years 20 weeks ago||DB has opposite reaction||
I think Dave Brandon's reaction to the story would be the opposite: hmm, I wonder how I can charge students more?
|2 years 30 weeks ago||Boise State?||
You say there are no mid-majors left that the big conferences would want, but I would not rule out Boise State so quickly. They are not quite as strong this year, but I think they will still be in the national conversation for the forseeable future.
On another note, I still don't fully understand why Notre Dame doesn't want to be in the Big Ten - it just seems to make way too much sense logically. But that could be it's own diary in and of itself.
|2 years 33 weeks ago||Still need a receiver to avoid intentional grounding||
To avoid intentional grounding, there still needs to be a receiver plausibly in the vacinity of the pass - Brady's safety in the most recent Super Bowl is a great example of this.
On two of Bama's passes, there were clearly no receivers anywhere near the pass - simply trying to avoid a sack. It was without a doubt intentional grounding in the literal sense of the phrase.
As with several other items, it by itself did not matter in the outcome of the game, but it was annoying to me as a fan.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Follow-up on Youth comment||
The Lakers are an old team, and with trading four draft picks to Phoenix for a (relative, in basketball terms) old guy, they are not getting any younger anytime soon. The last few months, all of the pundits have been talking about how the Lakers need to get younger.
The Lakers will look for some young guy like Sessions or a bench guy like Morris to develop in lieu of those draft picks (or maybe just cross their fingers for more free-agent signings and trades to pick up some youth).
|2 years 42 weeks ago||You do know that they won the title, right?||
You use the Heat as an example of why it won't work when . . . the Heat reached the Finals in their first season with Lebron and won it all in year two.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Informative||
Thanks for the insight - as a whole on a per at-bat basis, I think it's pretty clear that Austin Jackson has had at least as good if not a better season thus far than Curtis Granderson. Of course home runs are a slightly "sexier" stat, and that didn't hurt Curtis with the voting.
Always interesting how little these hard statistics actually factor into things like rankings and All-Star selections - which I guess is why it is going to be good to de-emphasize polls in college football and go with a selection committee.