Season Prediction Thread
I think we are getting toward the time of year where we can make some predictions. I haven't seen a thread dedicated to this yet, but if there has been, mods go ahead and delete.
I'll say 10-2 regular season, with 9-3 more likely than 11-1. Here's my rationale, and I hope you provide some rather than just putting down a number.
- Last year we were 121/125 in TO margin. With Ruddock presumably at QB, this should buy us, what, 2-3 wins? And if he's not QB, barring injury, the only reason can be positive.
- Pretty easy schedule outside of Utah, MSU and OSU. @Minnesota and @PSU will not be easy, but if we are what I think we should be, they really shouldn't compare at a talent level and for once we can say coaching should be an advantage.
- The defense looks to be no worse than good. Will it be elite? Will James Ross step up? Will Taco or Lawerence Marshall or I suppose Mario give us any pass rush? If we get a pass rush, I think the defense will be elite, but I'm not basing 10-2 on that.
- OL: We take a unit that performed reasonably well last year, give them more experience and arguably one of the best OL coaches in the country. Worst case scenario: solid pass pro and mediocre rushing. High hopes: very good but not elite.
- RBs: I'd really be surprised if we can't find someone or somebodys to perform admirably out of the 5 candidates: Isaac (IMO will be primary ball carrier), Green, Smith, Johnson, Higdon.
- WRs: Single biggest weakness I see. Darboh, from what we've seen, should be a #2, and he will be #1. I don't see Chesson taking it to the next level. Can Canteen, Harris, or maybe Peppers or Cole provide a dynamic option?
- X-Factor: Harbaugh performance in key games. This has been well-documented.
- We get our two toughest games at home. Win one and drop another annnnnddd
10-2
A team that was coached by Brady Hoke. Maybe that doesn't mean much to some. It does to me.
It means a lot to me, and that's why I'm predicting only 7-8 wins. These players were all coached by Brady Hoke, some of them for 3 or 4 years.
I'll stand by Ruddock for Gardner and a healthy Peppers being worth no less than 2 wins. Substitute Hoke for Harbaugh, a real DB coach, arguably one of the best OL coaches, a real special teams coach, more experience, no significant losses, an easier schedule, and boom, what do you get, no worse than 9 wins. It's ok to set the bar low for not wanting to get your hopes up, but that's what it is.
So you think the floor is 9 wins? So out of @Minnesota, MSU, OSU, @Utah, and BYU, you think we win two and all the rest of our games at a minimum? That is one spicy prediction. I like it.
BYU is not good. Win 1 and win the rest and we are 9-3. That's not even remotely bold to me.
I think its possisble to have a great season and win 10 games, but to say the floor is 9 wins is ridiculous. Rudock is an OK quarterback, not great. Right now he's in a position battle with someone who was MUCH worse than our starter last yer. As much as people want to dump on Gardner, its extremely rare to replace a starting quarterback and improve by 4 games. This team has very little NFL talent on it, and 9 ganes would be a fantastic season.
And I agree with you about the upgrade in coaches, but a coach's value is not see instantly. A huge part of it is how they teach and develop talent over time. The players just don't become good overnight with better coaching, or even over a 7-8 month period.
I said elsewhere I think 8 wins is the floor. I have not seen a convincing argument otherwise that wouldn't include doomsday scenarios. How old Gardner is is irrelevant to me. He could have been a 25 year old 5th year senior post-Mormon missionary and it wouldn't change that he had the worst QB performance of my lifetime, and it's hard to top Sheridan/Threet.
Look at our schedule. Look at our roster. Look at our coaching. 7-5 isn't happening.
that we ARE looking at the schedule AND the roster. It's fairly simple. We will be considered underdogs against Utah, Minny, OSU, MSU, and PSU. That's five right off the top. If we win the games we're supposed to, and lose the ones we're underdogs in, that's 7-5. Hopefully we win one or two that we're not favored in, and not lose any we're not supposed to. More than likely, we'll have a little of both. Somewhere between 6-6 and 8-4 is realistic. To expect more right away, and to put the FLOOR at 9-3 is nothing more than pure homerism.
To say we have very little NFL talent is a pessimistic view. I say at least one of our running backs will see time in the league, Mason Cole and probably Kalis and Glasgow.Jake Butt has a future as a pro as well. Mone and Henry for sure on the interior of the D-line. Taco will get a look based simply on his body - Maybe Wormley. One of Bolden or Morgan will also play in the league. In the Defensive Backfield we have three guaranteed draftees in Lewis, Lyons and Peppers.
You think this team has as many as 16 guys that will be NFL players?
STOP IT! Just stop! I really hope you don't talk this way in public or to other fanbases in any way. This is such a homer's perspective that it makes me embarrassed.
From my count i get 12-13. and 12-13 spanning 4 classes is really not unrealistic at all... Seeing as we just had 3 players drafted and 2 signed as undrafted free agents off of a 5-7 team. But yeah I'm the one who doesn't know what he's talking about- spare me.
"Okay but if you put a "solid" QB on last year's team who has a very good TO ratio, does that make a difference in our record?"
Probably not. I don't think you fully appreciate how bad this team was last year. We're talking about an average margin of defeat of 16 points. That is atrocious, and it's hard for me to think it turns around instantly based on the high school offer sheets of guys who are now 3-4 years removed from high school. This team needs new talent and time to develop. 8 months just isn't enough time to go from 5 to 10 wins.
A solid QB with a normalized TO ratio would have put the Rutgers and Maryland games from L to W IMO.
MSU and ND were not competitive.
A solid QB helping a 4 quarter healthy Drake Johnson in a rivalry game could have led to something vs OSU. Hoke sucked at a lot of things but getting UM up to play OSU was not one of them. Remember Indiana with a freshman QB played OSU tough for 3 quarters a few weeks before the UM game. They were not a juggernaut every wek. OSU also almost lost to PSU.
Obviously the Minn game was a giant clusterfuck but Rudock starting that game and Morris never leaving the bench and that probably is a very competitive game that might have been a coin flip at the end. Same for Utah if it was Rudock and not Gardner.
So your 5-7 goes to 7-5 (Rutgers, Maryland) and with a turnover or two the trajectory of the Utah game could have changed. Erasing Shane Morris from that Minn game - who knows what happens. So we can argue win 8 or 9 but flipping to 7 wins would be extremely probable.
That said we had some close wins just the same, PSU and NW so even with a better QB who knows if you play those games 10 times if we win them more than 6 times. They were complete toss ups.
Well in Hoke's first year after a brutal 2010 season where the team was completely manhandled by MSU, OSU, and MSU noone thought we would go 11-2 and win a BCS bowl. Harbaugh has a demonstrably better track record as a coach and specifically, turning teams around. Hoke recruited well he just couldn't coach, we do have talent on this years team. You don't have to but...
Believe! Go Blue.
This is very simplistic and almost illogical reasoning. Having the same football team is a good thing in college. Improvement comes from development, not new players such as free agents or freshmen. We have the most returning starters in the Big10. Particuarly on a defense that was top 15 nationally. We now have upper classmen along the O line and across key position groups. We have depth and talent on the D line. We have vastly upgraded coaching that will improve players individually, unit-wise and will actually run schemes that fit square pegs in square holes. We should have signicantly upgraded special teams. We should have a QB that doesnt throw double digit ints and plays in a scheme that makes sense for him (whoever it is). Why would you base any evaluation on past performance when so many important variables have changed?
15-0
We'll beat Cuba in an exhibition as well.
Actually apparently 30-0.
I have the late summer going crazy without football blues.
say 9-3 or 10-2. We pointed to this season a couple of years ago as "the season." What has changed...?
Still too many questions on offense for me to go higher than that. I would be more optimistic if I felt Ty Isaac proves to be a significant upgrade at RB.
with a toss up bowl game at the end. I'm obviously hoping for better but the offense could be brutal.
I am expecting to see an amazing OLine. I don't know why or how. But Drevno is going to pull a rabbit out of his hat somehow.
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10-2 B1G Runner-Up.
I predict we go 2-1 against Utah/BYU/Minn, winning one by a special teams touchdown. We crush Penn State under the lights. We go 1-1 against MSU/OSU (hopefully we beat the Buckeyes since I will be there), and run the rest of the table.
We have a 1200 yard rusher on the backs of a very improved O-line and at least one of our highly ranked backs being coached up.
Our special teams become a force and make major contributions to several games.
We look back on the season saying that our receiving corps was the weakest link, but progress gives us tremendous confidence for 2016.
Also agree that it's hard to see us go unbeaten in non-conference and on the road in the B1G.
So 8-4 seems reasonable to me.
Two losses at home and two on the road.
So no predictions from me...for the greater good.
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My guess is the defense and special teams will be pretty good and the offense will be mediocre at best.
I don't know...
Reading the HTTV position previews thought we might run the table... Then in the back they all predict 7-5!
Honestly, I'll be somewhat disapointed with fewer than 9 wins (with bowl) including an upset against OSU or MSU.
Sky's the limit on the upside. I think we have a ton of untapped talent that's ripe for a breakout. I don't think it's crazy to think Harbaugh could "shock everyone".
I am pretty sure that I could coach this team to a 9-3 record. But throw in a head scratching loss to go 8-4. Anything less is bad news.
8-4. I think the Vegas line of 7.5 is set very well.
Harbaugh is a great coach, but it will take more than 8 months to undo the last few years of poor development for the players on this team.
We are sorely under represented in any sort of NFL draft projections or preseason watch list. This team doesn't quite have the players to be a double digit winner yet.
9-3
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I think the team will improve throughtout the season (from month to month) and reach 10 wins.
7-5 Disappointed
8-4 This is predicted nationally, but is still pretty disappointing given our schedule. Meets expectations.
9-3 OSU/MSU should beat us and we'll probably drop another BYU/Utah/PSU/Minn
10-2 Same as 9-3, but with an upset of OSU or MSU. Could happen
11-1 If the stars are aligned and the ball bounce right and HARBAUGH!
12-0 Not going to happen.
Losses to BYU, MSU, PSU & OSU. Harbaugh is agreat coach but it will take some time.
The fact that we got 1 vote compared to
OSU 1598 points
MSU 1230
UTAH 40
MIN 25
PSU 20
BYU 3
MD 1
We should go 5-6-1. Very disappointing.
http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
/s
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The coaching upgrade is HUGE and the talent is there. I think we see a big improvement this year.
I think the floor is 8-4, 9-3 is reasonable, and 10-2 or even better is possible.
@Utah L
Oregon State W
UNLV W
BYU L
@Maryland W
NW W
MSU L
@ Minnesota L
Rutgers W
@ Indiana W
@ Penn State L
Ohio State L
6-6