Rural Michigan Covid systems: Fail
Rant and Quick stats:
I live in SW Michigan
Wife diagnosed with Covid-19 on 03/19/2020. My recent posts history will lay out the details.
Three other members of our household family, not tested, and my wife will technically be out of quarantine on Friday. No testing for any of us to confirm anything. I don't blame the state or local officials. Their comments are "We don't have enough tests, and have to go by CDC guidelines."
Myself and my kids have been without symptoms for three days and no fever on 03/29/2020 (I am over 14 days myself). The CDC guidelines say we are ok already, 72 hours without fever and symptoms.
My wife's case will also be closed until her symptoms worsen. She takes 5 breathing treatments a day. She otherwise feels fine. She is an at risk patient in every sense. Chronic asthma. She is 52 and we have been to the E.R. since back in her late 20's for respiratory distress for allergies and most of our family having penchant for smoking around us during the holidays. After two years of late December visits to the E.R. they got the hint.
She will not leave the house by her own accord until she is confirmed safe. She could have permanent damage, we will have to wait an see.
I will social distance well beyond any expectation, I just would like a uniform voice and guidance.
Stay healthy, wash your hands, Go Blue, Go you, Go your loved ones.
I’m sorry to hear about your wife. I hope she ends up with a good outcome.
On edit: negging dude’s story seems a little shitty. Neg this one if you have an itchy finger.
If I only cared about negs right now.
edit. Totally misread that .... my bad. Carry on. Neg away.
it what I get for watching Law and Order while skimming MGoBlog
Everyone is on edge. It’s hard to be good now.
My comment wasn’t bad or attacking, it (paraphrased)
“JPC was being nice y’all need to chill and relax man”
then I realized fatman_do was also OP and I totally misread and should quit drinking and go to bed.
Started a new job, moved to a new city, closing on my old house etc. all since covid. I think I have a brain tumor because I have been extremely calm during all this .... to the point it’s creeping my wife and other people out. Am I glitching the matrix? Did I finally kill my last brain cell that produced anxiety and stress with PBR and scotch?
Just letting you know we are with you. Go luck.
Hang in there - pulling for you and family.
You mention tests and it does lead me to this question --- aren't 65% of the tests being conducted in Michigan still coming back negative?
That seems ...... strange ..... given that CDC guidelines suggest testing only people who are high-risk and/or highly syptomatic.
It does make me wonder if there are a certain % of folk who are getting preferential testing - e.g., test them "just in case" even though they don't meed criteria.
(it could also be the case that these tests have a HIGH "false negative" rate)
It is still respiratory illness season. Other illnesses are in full swing as well. As dangerous as Covid-19 is, it’s not the only thing causing damage among at risk populations
This. People scream about testing. If you have a fever over 100 degrees, have a dry cough, runny nose, and are short of breath, get tested. If you don't have those symptoms, gtfo.
I'm an advanced practice nurse. As a matter of fact, i do anesthesia and intubate people, highest risk job out there in terms of contracting this virus. But if i start to feel shitty but don't have most of the symptoms, don't expect to get tested. It sounds like people are demanding getting tested because they have h1n1 (the flu from the first half of the flu season this year) or the second h3n5 or have allergies. Those people need to take a Xanax and go home.
For people that didn't know, flu and pneumonia were already nearly at epidemic levels this year, according to the CDC.
My understanding is that once we have wide scale testing and we are at the point that we are lifting restrictions the advice will change drastically. At that point identifying cases, quarantining and contact tracking will be extremely important to managing the spread of covid-19 to hopefully limit a second surge.
The current testing recommendations are largely based on two things. First, a lack of tests and second, the fact that going out to test adds risk and uses limited ppe. Since for most the treatment won’t change, so the lack of testing isn’t an issue. It does however hurt from a knowledge perspective. The more we know about how many people are really infected, the percentages with different symptoms, severity for different demographics etc, the better we’ll be able to manage post this shut in period.
Particularly for people with high risk individuals in a house hold it also matters in a real sense. If anyone in the household gets symptoms, it causes very legitimate concerns for that high risk individual. Isolating an individual family member is challenging and stressful.
Further, as others have pointed out, for people on the frontlines, it would be great to know if they should be quarantined.
Well-stated. However, my impression is that there is not going to be any "wide scale testing". Here in Kansas it is virtually impossible for my wife to get a child tested-even when they present with significant symptoms. This concerted plan/strategy to limit testing is most curious to me. Here in Kansas, where it appears as though the virus is indeed at a very low level, it would seem as though this would be a good place to institute a different tack on the testing. Why the insistence upon ignorance???
We keep hearing across the country that tests are limited. I suspect that is what is going on in KS. Unfortunately it is going to be hard to switch from saying don’t do tests, tests aren’t available, to come and get a test if you have any symptoms.
Fauci talked about the need for a better testing regime yesterday - https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490713-fauci-improved-testing-and-tracing-can-help-reopen-country
Fauci, a top official at the National Institutes of Health, said during a White House briefing that he would like to see enough capacity to test a wide range of people and the ability to determine who those that test positive have been in contact with.
That would help create a targeted approach and allow the country to ease up on blunter efforts currently in place, including stay-at-home orders.
"The one thing we hopefully would have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who's infected, isolate them and then do contact tracing," Fauci said.
"If you have a really good program of containment, that prevents you from ever having to get into mitigation. We're in mitigation right now," he said
At hospital systems in Washington they are giving priority to healthcare workers showing symptoms, at least they did for my wife and her unit. They need them to be on the front lines, so the self quarantine for 7+ days if you have symptoms isn’t really an option right now.
The positive test results in MI are opposite of what you have heard and maybe even worse. 70% or so, positive. There remains a huge backlog of samples needing to be tested so likely why there are still struggles to get tests. The Roche testing being run is known to be extremely accurate, so please do not spread the rumor of false results. Shit is bad enough without creating more concerns.
The linked map by zip code shows percent positive test results by sip code.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map.pdf
Even there they are getting less than 70% in many areas. Some of that is certainly because there are other respiratory illnesses out there.
Further, this is what CDC says about false negative tests:
What does it mean if I have a negative test result?
A negative test result means that the virus that causes COVID-19 was not found in your sample. For COVID-19, a negative test result for a sample collected while a person has symptoms usually means that COVID-19 did not cause your recent illness.
However, it is possible for this test to give a negative result that is incorrect (false negative) in some people with COVID-19. This means that you could possibly still have COVID-19 even though the test is negative. If this is the case, your healthcare provider will consider the test result together with your symptoms, possible exposures, and geographical location of places you have recently traveled) in deciding how to care for you.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/Factsheet-for-Patients-2019-nCoV.pdf
Per my wife, the tests are running around 30% false negatives-the positive results are very accurate.
30% false negatives and 10% false positives is the number I've heard.
...both of which are... not great.
Hope everything works out for you.
Do we actually know definitively how long someone can be spreading COVID while they have it? It sounds like each day you are around your wife your 14 day quarantine clock would restart if we don't know as you are potentially getting re-exposed to it. I haven't seen the 3 day guidance anywhere for being in the clear, could you link that?
Supposed to have 2 negative tests to be cleared... I appreciate that they don't have the tests but...
Two test in a row are if you are to be tested.
If you will be tested to determine if you are still contagious, you can leave home after these three things have happened:
- You no longer have a fever (without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
AND - other symptoms have improved (for example, when your cough or shortness of breath have improved)
AND
you received two negative tests in a row, 24 hours apart. Your doctor will follow CDC guidelines.
I saw a study that said most people stop spreading it after 2 days of no symptoms. However, in the study someone was still contagious 8 days later. So assuming that study was indicative of most people, a week of no symptoms would mean you are not contagious in all likelihood. Make it 10 days if you wanna be extra safe.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html
How to discontinue home isolation
- People with COVID-19 who have stayed home (home isolated) can stop home isolation under the following conditions:
- If you will not have a test to determine if you are still contagious, you can leave home after these three things have happened:
-
-
- You have had no fever for at least 72 hours (that is three full days of no fever without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
AND - other symptoms have improved (for example, when your cough or shortness of breath have improved)
AND - at least 7 days have passed since your symptoms first appeared
- You have had no fever for at least 72 hours (that is three full days of no fever without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
-
My county's more restrictive 14 days + 3 supersedes these recommendations.
We're all hoping for a complete recovery and return to health for especially your wife but also you and the kids.
Like you suggested, I read all your recent posts. Look at it to his way: once you all get through this you likely will have a good level of antibodies and immunity. Just sorry your wife had to go through all that.
I just moved from the Watervliet area myself after about 35 years in that county, but 2 of my 3 adult children are still down in that general area, and I'm hoping everyone stays safe. The healthcare system in Berrien County, like most areas in this country, isn't likely to have enough hospitals and equipment to deal with a major outbreak unless the curve is sufficiently flattened first.
Be safe!
FWIW you weren't tested because even if the tests were negative and we had an infinite availability of tests, you would still be assumed to be CoVid positive with a positive household contact.
We are presumed positive since we share the household. No further testing before we are released to the wild is my concern.
The good news is that this virus probably isn’t nearly as fatal as its tracking right now. The bad news is it’s more contagious than we could imagine and the spread is enough to overwhelm the hospitals.
That is not as encouraging as you think it is.
Right, multiplying by a factor of 10 about every 2 weeks. MI hit 1,000 confirmed on 3/22. Will hit 10,000 today. 100,000 mid-late April. If 20% require hospitalization that’s a lot by May if we hit high 6 figure total cases!
Is today the day the planet hits 1,000,000? Eclipsed 100,000 on 3/6 when we were still tripping over our dicks to put out tests in the US.
In KS 50 percent of the rural doctor offices have closed since 2008. Some towns do not even have doctors. If I get a bad case of CODIV-19, I'm going up to Omaha, NE to get treated.
Good luck with that. By the time you get it Omaha will likely be in trouble and refusing out-of-staters service. Otherwise, you have a good plan.
My stepmom has had pneumonia-like symptoms since late January and they never tested her. She's doing better now at least, and never had to be hospitalized.
good luck to you
Sorry to hear your wife has been affected. And your whole family as well. All the best to her in her continued recovery.
I spent 8 days filled with anxiety for my wife, who also has chronic asthma, and 6 y/o son with multiple heart defects, after I was potentially exposed. It took 8 days for a result on the doctor that I was exposed to for a week at work. Fortunately he had a less severe resp virus and tested negative for C19 after traveling internationally.
testing has been my concern since the WA cluster-F. Now Abbott has devised a 5min pos 13 min neg and of course political powers will wrangle over who gets the machines. Read para2 of this piece and you’ll feel sick. To Duggan’s credit he did manage to get 5 machines w/5000 tests promised to Detroit
https://m.chron.com/news/article/Virus-hot-spots-clamor-for-quick-tests-15172894.php
Some White House officials want to ship many of the tests, which were approved Friday and can deliver results in five to 13 minutes, to areas where there are fewer cases, such as rural areas and parts of the South. But officials in hard-hit areas and some public health experts favor directing them to the outbreak's current hot spots, arguing that delays in test readings have sidelined many first responders and health care workers and made it harder to isolate the most contagious patients
best wishes to your wife, what a nightmare.
this isnt just a rural problem though, which im not sure would make you feel better or worse, but maybe less alone. michigan medicine wouldnt test me despite meeting diagnostic criteria to presume i’m positive. testing criteria as of last week was still meet two of: over 70, immune compromised, or work/live in group housing. symptomatic and working with patients i believe is an auto qualifier. they told me to assume i have it, and if i did indeed have it, boy i do not wish what i went through on anybody. I’m fine with nit being tested if we are still so short on them that my test would go to someone whose course of treatment may be altered by a positive, but fuck.
I think im finally getting over it 12 days later, but i work in group housing. spreading it in my community would be potentially devastating. plus, without having been tested to know i did have it, i may just be putting myself at risk of catching and spreading it if I did not have it. this is all around a fucking disaster.
Sending love your family’s way.
Broadly, I am extremely concerned about rural areas, in Michigan and across the country. Low population density is helpful but rural medical resources are often scant.