Rittenberg Three Predictions for Michigan
Adam Rittenberg has given three predictions for Michigan this coming football season.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/bigten/0-3-699/Preseason-predictions--Michig…
I think his predictions are in line with what most of us here are predicting. He has Michigan back in a bowl game this year and possibly going 4-0 to start the season. I like these predictions!
I'd take 8 wins an walk away with a smile on my face
I'd take 6 or 7 wins and still be happy with this season. But I think 8-4 is pretty realistic.
I wouldn't be happy at all, unless you and I have a different definition of the word. I fear 6-6 but acknowledge it could well happen.
6-6 is much better than 3-9. I would be happy if we got to or exceed .500. You should not fear but view it as a 100 percent increase in wins from the previous year.
Yes, and having a cancerous limb amputated is better than dying of cancer. That doesn't make it good. Thinking about going 6-6 makes me cringe. It would be progress but still disappointing.
on the borderline of realistic. I am more inclined to think we will get 7 but I would love to have 8. Putting us 4-0 to start the season means a win over ND, that would be sweet as well. It also means we go 4-4 in the remaining 8 games and as long as one of those 4 would be against OSU I would consider it a monumental success of a season.
are against Purdue and Delaware St. (I think those should be wins), at State, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin (they can win 2 of those), and Penn State and Ohio State at home.
8 or 9 wins is definitely achievable this year.
isn't a stretch...we clearly outplayed them last year and should have won, except those 5 turnovers got in the way. We will be vastly improved and they are overrated after blowing out Hawaii.
I think anytime you have 5 turnovers you cannot claim that we "clearly outplayed" them.
By definition, we did not outplay ND because turned the ball over so many times; but I think the point worth noting is we out passed them and out ran them. Obviously, it didn't matter (since we didn't win the game), but at the end of the day, Michigan wasn't over matched.
I was referring to the fact that we handed them the game on a silver platter with all the turnovers, stated another way, our play was good enough to beat them, except for the fact that we turned the ball over five times and either (a) gave them easy TD's or (b) blew our own scoring chances (particularly Grady's late fumble at the goal line).
I would take the statistics from that game with a grain of salt. ND had a big lead for almost the entire game, and in the second half they were just trying to salt away the clock while we were desperately trying to get back in it. In situations like that, it's not unusual for the losing team to end up outgaining the victor.
1. The best Michigan can do this year is 13-0.
2. The worst Michigan can do this year is go 0-12.
3. My Prediction is Michigan will go 8-4 or 9-3, have around 5 All-Big Ten players, and we'll look forward to a NC season next year :)
If Forcier gets injured I am ready for major, major PAIN. As in 4 wins, maybe worse if our defense is hurt too.
Even if QBForce goes down, we have maybe the most talented spread backfield in the Big Ten. Throw in Denard from the shotgun, and you're looking at a very difficult run-game to deal with. If the defense is merely adequate, I think we can win at least 5 games based on a solid running offense alone. Surely there were Carr years where our offense was one-dimensional and we still posted winning seasons.
Sure, but we don't even know if Denard is 2nd string right now. Remember how we all talked ourselves into Feagin being a potentially viable quarterback and then the coaches wouldn't even let him throw? Can Denard make enough right reads and deliver the ball with enough accuracy to be even a small threat throwing the ball right now? We simply don't know.
that the offensive line is coming in greatly improved and with a year of game experience. We also go into the year with the leadership and edge of healthy senior RBs. Call me crazy, but it's not 2008 anymore. Even Sheridan can run 3 yards and a cloud of dust adequately, and provide some pocket presence. He's obviously not bona fide, but he managed some good passes last year that defenses shouldn't completely disrespect. I think that's what we need to win 5 games. More than 5 or 6, probably not.
Our offense should be better, but it's no stretch to say our defense could be worse, especially with injuries.
Minor for 1300 yards? I hope so, but probably only if our QB situation works our real well.
yards seems a bit rosy because I don't think he'll get enough carries. Fred Jackson indicated that giving defenses a lot of looks with different backs will put stress on them because of the different styles and skill sets of Minor, Brown, Shaw, Smith, etc. I'm guess they're going to spread the carries around, with Minor probably getting the most.
If Minor does get 1,300, I think that bodes well for the upper end of that 6-8 win projection.
Yeah, I'm a little surprised - 1300? If Brown gets hurt and Shaw stays a slot then maybe but probably not.
Minor rushing for 1,300 is a lock if he stays healthy. WVU's rushing numbers went way up in RR's 2nd season. Season breaks down into thirds. Games we should absolutely win: EMU, IU, DSU & Purdue. Games that could go either way: WMU, ND, @MSU, & @Wiscy. Games that we will have a tough time winning: PSU, @Iowa, @Illinois, OSU. If we go 4-0 in the first group, 2-2 in the second, and 1-3 in the third group - that would be a pretty solid season.
I'd be tempted to put Western as a game we should absolutely win. I haven't examined them in depth, and I know their offense is pretty good (and their QB is great), but didn't they lose like 8 starters from an already crappy defense? I know Michigan's not exactly "Michigan" right now, and Toledo and all that...but against a MAC team, it should be an absolute win. I'm interested in Brian's outlook of this game when he starts with the opponent previews.
I think everyone is (rightly) hesitant to say we should beat Western because last year they beat an Illinois team that kicked the crap out of us.
Well I'm not a fan of that type of argument. If Western had beaten Michigan last year and the two teams were similar this year, sure, I'd give that some weight. But bringing a third term into the equation and considering that Western's defense is replacing several starters, I don't like using some game from last year against a random opponent as a reason to be worried about this year. Be worried because their offense is potent and our defense is a question mark. Be worried because our QB is going to be a freshman playing in his first game. Don't be worried while using some sort of warped transitive property.
Well right, but those are just more reasons why we shouldn't put Western into a "should win" category. Using the fact that they beat Illinois last year isn't illegitimate when used to point out that the team isn't a pile of garbage and isn't necessarily a game we should win 90% of the time.
Now, using the Illinois game last year to say that they're just as good this year or to evaluate our actual chances wouldn't make any sense, but I do think it makes sense to not group them with the Delaware States and EMUs of the world. It's not a crappy team, even with the losses.
I agree w/ all of your reasons to worry, but Illinois was a common opponent, not some random example. You have to give some weight to common opponents. I think.
You can give some weight to it, but not much. Example: Penn St and USC both played Oregon St last year. USC lost, and PSU killed Oregon St. However, when USC and PSU played, USC won quite handily. I'm not saying that this one example disproves it, but this happens a lot.
Also, Illinois was a bi-polar team last year. They had some games where they looked like the big ten champ, and other where they looked horrible. Probably why they went 5-7.
app state beat an M team that slapped Florida around therefore FCS>FBS...?
Not trying to be a dick, I just hate that line of logic that everyone uses.
I agree. Everyone on this board keeps talking about Western being a trap game, but they are NOT that good. Tim Hiller is an excellent quarterback, but he lost his biggest receiving weapons, and their already crappy defense loses a ton of starting seniors.
There would be much, much more concern if Michigan was kicking off the season against Central, who hung up 38 points and 600ish yards on Worstern last season.
Is there really a need to change Western to Worsten? I mean its one thing to change OSU or MSU to something but changing Western almost legitimizes them and makes us seem like we are worried about them, which is contradicting your own argument.
I'm a CMU student who follows Michigan football too. It legitimizes it.
Point taken. That does legitimize it
I've actually always heard it called "Wastern" more than anything else
I have heard it called that too. I am not originally from Michigan so I don't truly know that much about the other schools in Michigan. I do have friends that grew up in Michigan and they would always call it "Wastern".
I just found that humorous especially when I saw Tim Allen wearing a Western shirt on old episodes of Home Improvement.
I have nothing against Western and really don't know that much about it, but I have always enjoyed that nick name.
Its because Tim Allen went to school there.
This is absolutely not a trap game. a trap game by definition is a good team overlooking a mediocre team after a big win the week before. I don't think this team is going to overlook anyone after last season.
I think a more defined trap game is one in which the mediocre team is sandwiched inbetween two big games. One that you have already won and another that the team is looking forward to. (thus overlooking the mediocre team)
Buy yeah, I would have to agree with you. It would be hard to classify the season opener as a "trap game."
Especially when you consider what our record was last year.
Is on par with the sun will come up tomorrow. Seriously, this guy gets paid to predict that Michigan will at some point this season "either because of injury or performance" start two QBs? Really? That's earth shattering considering Rich Rod's public statements that he's amenable to, even in favor of, using multiple QBs.
Agreed - that's like going one foot out on the lowest limb. If he wanted to talk about the quarterbacks and make it interesting he should have said that 4 or 5 guys (Forcier, 'Swiss Family Killer' Robinson, Sheridan, Feagin, Gallon, Brown, etc.) would take snaps from center at some point during the season.
Using two different QBs is a different than starting two of them. I don't think RR wants to have to do that again. It's much more likely that he'd favor a Leak/Tebow type of arrangement, with a clear #1 guy.
I have nothing against his writing, but I just want to punch Rittenberg in the face. All the time. Also, if Minor goes for 1,300 I think him and Brown/Shaw will comfortably combine for 2000+. Last year the best rushing team in the Big Ten was Wisconsin at 211/gm and 2745 for the season. I think (hope) we can put up similar numbers this year.
predictions seem to continue to get steadily better as we forget about last season and hope for the best? I think back in Jan/Feb people were predicting 5/6/7 wins, now its 6/7/8 with 8 still being pretty realistic. Not to be a downer, and I do think we definitely have a shot at a winning record. It's just hard for me to imagine all the same guys getting better at holding on to the ball.
If they make it to a bowl game in Tempe, I will be in heaven
Think he was meaning to say Tampa here?
I think he meant Tempe because his username is BenAZ and AZ is Arizona.
No - Rittenberg said Tempe, but I think he probably meant Tampa... that's who I was referring to. My apologies for a lack of clarity.
Ah I think he said and meant Tempe which is home to the Insight.com Bowl. The sixth ranked teams from the Big 12 and Big Ten Conferences face-off at Sun Devil Stadium and the games is on the NFL Network (oh great). Last year's game featured Kansas and Minnesota.
It would obviously suck if Michigan was the sixth ranked team in the Big 10 but selfishly I would be happy since I live in AZ. It would however, be even cooler if they played in the Fiesta Bowl!
I really think they can get 8 wins, but really, i'm going to be pissed off with a 6 or 7 win season. Just for my entire lifetime, a 7-5 season has not been anywhere near okay....
Get over it.