Risk Day 39 - 1,320 Players And 6,183 Power!

Submitted by Michigan CFB R… on April 30th, 2020 at 4:45 PM

We finally had a not-so-incredible roll last night. In fact, we ended up -1.3 vs. expectations. Thanks to you guys, though, we were still able to hold an impressive 30 territories. Because of our sheer numbers advantage over the rest of the teams, we can weather a mediocre roll (and basically everybody being against us) and still hold the lead. Now the question is....can we maintain / expand that numbers advantage over the next 12 days?

Yesterday, MGoPoster Hill.FootballRecruits challenged the MGoArmy to get us up to 1,500 players. I truly appreciate his enthusiasm, and I want to echo his challenge. We had our most players ever last night (last round included), but I believe we can turn up the heat EVEN MORE. So let's make 1,500 our goal and let's see if we can get to it by the end of the week.

To be clear, 1,500 would be an absurd number, but we're an absurd fanbase. We routinely stuff over 110k people into our college football stadium, we have one of the largest living alumni bases, and we win the EDSBS Charity Bowl year after year (and it's not close). In other words, there are a crap ton of us, and we're super passionate.

So let's direct just a bit of that passion to this silly game and bring home the W. Go to MichiganCFBRisk.com every day, register your moves every day, recruit your friends and family every day, and Let's Go Blue!

Steps To Play Every Day With Hyperlinks: Attached to this post is a PDF with easy to digest instructions and hyperlinks. Below is the same information written out.

  1. Sign up for a https://reddit.com/ account if you don’t have one already
  2. Visit https://collegefootballrisk.com/ – Click Sign in with Reddit – Select Michigan as your team
  3. Visit https://michigancfbrisk.com/ - click “Login using Reddit” – Click “Get an Assignment”
  4. Return to https://collegefootballrisk.com/ – Scroll to the bottom of the page and execute your assignment (Note: Simply clicking action so that it becomes highlighted gray confirms the move. There’s no submit or confirm button needed)

Kewaga.

April 30th, 2020 at 8:10 PM ^

Last year:

#1  Florida        26 Territories

#2  Michigan    23 Territories

#3  Nebraska    15 Territories

#4  GT              10 Territories

      OSU            10 Territories

      OU              10 Territories

# 8  Chaos          9 Territories

#10  TAMU         7 Territories

       Alabama      7 Territories

#12  Wisconsin   6 Territories

#13  Texas          5 Territories

#14  Clemson     2 Territories

 

Blue Team: Florida, Michigan, GT, Texas, Clemson

Red Team: Nebraska, OSU, OU, TAMU, Alabama, Wisconsin, Stanford

FoCoManiax

April 30th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^

sucks we haven't been able to expunge GT from the west. Hopefully the dice flip back to neutral/our favor and we can lock down Cali, and even better, Hawai'i.

mgoaggie

April 30th, 2020 at 1:33 PM ^

If you look at their heat map, they put the majority (by far) of their single-territory resources on San Diego State and USC. Both were essentially coin flips, and they went 1-2. Have to assume they're going to do the same thing again today, just keep 1 territory out West, put resources into 2 so they don't push all in and lose on one. Just need that flip to land heads twice in a row and they'll be relegated to the SE/Hawaii.

mgoaggie

April 30th, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^

The RNG was honestly really kind yesterday. We only lost 2 territories that we had >50% chance on, and won 6. I'm not sure how the anticipated # works, but that doesn't feel too terrible. 

J.

April 30th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^

The anticipated number is what you get if you add up the expected value of each territory.  If you have an 80% chance to win a territory, that's 0.8.

Using 50% as a cutoff doesn't tell the whole story.  If you have 5 territories, each with a 40% chance -- on average, you'll win 2.  Heck, if you have 6 territories, each with a 15% chance, you're more likely to win one than zero.

FYI, this is the standard way to combine independent random variables (aka: probabilities).  KenPom, et al., do the same thing to project season records.

mgokev

April 30th, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^

If you keep your streak going, you'll be a 4-star in 3 days. 
How do I earn stars?

There are two types of star ratings. The most important is your overall star rating, which is what determines how many points you contribute in attack or defense. The second consists of your star rating in five sub-categories. Your overall star rating is the MEDIAN star rating you have achieved in the five sub-categories. For example, if you sub-category star ratings break down as 5/1/2/3/3, your overall star rating would be the median value of 3. Here are the five sub-categories and criteria for each:

  • Total turns played across all rounds of College Football Risk (including the reddit version)
    • One star - 0 total turns played
    • Two stars - 10 total turns played
    • Three stars - 25 total turns played
    • Four stars - 50 total turns played
    • Five stars - 100 total turns played
  • Turns played during the current round of College Football Risk
    • One star - 0 turns played this round
    • Two stars - 5 turns played this round
    • Three stars - 10 turns played this round
    • Four stars - 25 turns played this round
    • Five stars - 40 turns played this round
  • Number of MVPs awarded
    • One star - 0 MVPs
    • Two stars - 1 MVP
    • Three stars - 5 MVPs
    • Four stars - 10 MVPs
    • Five stars - 25 MVPs
  • Streak of consecutive turns played
    • One star - 0 consecutive turns played
    • Two stars - 3 consecutive turns played
    • Three stars - 5 consecutive turns played
    • Four stars - 10 consecutive turns played
    • Five stars - 25 consecutive turns played
  • Awards on r/CFB
    • One star - 0 r/CFB awards
    • Two stars - 1 r/CFB awards
    • Three stars - 2 r/CFB awards
    • Four stars - 3 r/CFB awards
    • Five stars - 4 r/CFB awards

Hill.FootballR…

April 30th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^

Quick Question CFB Risk:

Any luck on getting Clemson, Oklahoma, and Stanford (aka Chaos) to give up on trying to eliminate Texas and join our alliance? To me this could easily be the deciding factor in this game and right now it's going against us.

UMinOhio

April 30th, 2020 at 2:24 PM ^

Not to be too dumb, but where is the map for us to carry out our orders?  I can scroll down the reddit CFBrisk page seemingly forever and not find an actionable map.

Hill.FootballR…

April 30th, 2020 at 2:44 PM ^

When you are at https://collegefootballrisk.com/ you can look in the upper left and you are at "Home"

Below this is the map, and you can click on each territory and it will show you the name of it, and who currently owns it (Yellow are the territories Michigan currently owns).

When you scroll down below that map, Defend will be on the Left and Attack will be on the right. You can defend a territory we already own (if that was your order) or attack a territory we are touching.

The slightly confusing part at first is that If you "attack Hawaii" you are actuallly attacking Georgia Tech who currently owns Hawaii. Please recognize that we are allied with Nebraska and Texas, and against OSU, Wisco, TA&M and Georgia Tech

rob f

April 30th, 2020 at 2:50 PM ^

Since I just finally signed up shortly after midnight today, I'm probably going to have to be considered a "walk-on".

But that's OK, Jordan Kovacs and the 3 Glasgow brothers were all walk-ons, too, so I'm thinking I'm in good company. 

k1400

April 30th, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^

Finally made it to 2 star....after missing a day twice.  DAMMIT!  Firing my 2 stars into the breach, as commanded.  

I will outperform my 2 star rating, beat Ohio State, get drafted, avoid CTE, amass a small fortune, buy a Caribbean Island, and retire having reached the pinnacle of Maslow's hierarchy.  To hell with Vroom.  And Notre Dame.