Regarding this year's record-what if the consensus is wrong?
Today we've seen from Dr. Saturday, yet another prediction for the upcoming season of 7-5. Most predictions seem to be around 6-6 or 7-5, with a mid-pack B10 finish and low tier bowl game. This is rapidly becoming a consensus opinion. If you follow the stock market, you know that contrarian bets against the current consensus often pay off big, as the majority opinion often turns out to be incorrect. For example, when a weekly poll of current institutional investors reaches a level where the majority are bullish, that is often a contrary indicator that the market is due for a short term drop.
So my question: if the consensus turns out to be wrong, and we finish either below (shoot me now) or above (muppets!) the prediction consensus of 7-5, which do you think it's likely to be? Better or worse than 7-5?
As for me I'll hedge a bit. I think the consensus is right, and am in the Phil Steele camp. But for the discussion I'll say "worse" because of 1-freshman QB(s) 2- potential injuries 3- defensive depth and 4- almost no one expects it
As a Michigan fan, it's incredibly hard for me to believe we could possibly fall below 6-6 again, simply based on how much talent we have, and the knowledge that our coach's plans work, and work better 2nd year. So I'd have to go with the over.
Not in an effort to attack you, but I wanted to make a couple of points here. I'm sure people would have felt the same incredibility about the following before it actually happened:
1) App State
2) Toledo
3) 3-9
4) Losing 5 in a row to OSU
5) Michigan was favored by -7 against Oregon in 2007
On balance I agree with you, as last year was a contrast between awesome (first 2 drives against Illinois) and dreadful (the rest of the game). Abysmal also made an appearance (Wisconsin 1st half).
5-7 could happen. EMU, WMU, Delaware St, Purdue, Indiana should all be pretty bad teams. I don't see Michigan being favored in any other game though.
I hope I'm dead wrong and the team goes 9-3 though. But 5-7 with close losses isn't the end of the world.
I think the wild card is Illinois. How mediocre are they going to be? They're a Jekyll and Hyde team, and we can beat them if we catch them on the right day. Same goes for Iowa, MSU and Notre Dame.
I think Illinois will be the surprise in the B10 b/c of how good their offense can be (defense not so much though), but I like Illinois with much of their offense still in tact.
name me an Illinois defender.
Any time now....
They can't score 50 every game to cover for their godawful D. They will be 6-6.
that bad?
Defensively, yes.
Offensively, could be scary if we don't show up.
They have no receivers with which to burn our secondary.
The scenario that makes the most sense to me, whether we go 7-5 or not, is that we win one or two that we're not supposed to, but lose 1-2 that we were not supposed to as well. Teams that are mediocre do not usually have any sure wins, and the vast majority of this board seems to think Delaware, Western, Eastern, Indiana, and Purdue, while perhaps not gimmes, are pretty close. I think not. It would not shock me to see us slip and lose one of those, while stepping up and beating either OSU or PSU. That's a recipe for 6-6.
I doubt Western will be bad. I think we can win, but at same probability we beat Wisconsin; not Eastern or Delaware St.
made me feel many things. Incredibility was not one of them. In fact, the incedibility of all five things listed here is basically nillatory, IME.
No sugarcoat.
ShockEFX: I'd like to address the things that happened to UM the last couple of years which would have caused you concern, as you noted in your post.
1) App State:
Lloyd Carr losing touch with the game, both with recruiting and playcalling.
2) Toledo:
RR left with bare cupboard on defense, at OL, and at QB.
3) 3-9:
See above.
4) Losing 5 in a row to OSU:
UM went 10-2-1 against OSU from 1988-2000, mostly because Carr was better than Bruce and Cooper. They lost the last five because Tressel was better than Carr. And yes, last year's loss should go on Carr's slate because of the terrible situations he left for RR on defense, OL, and at QB.
5) Michigan was favored by -7 against Oregon in 2007:
Two of Carr's biggest problems were mobile QB's and spread offenses. Oregon had both. This, not Appy State, was the game that probably resulted in Carr's "retirement."
Now, they have at least one real QB, the defense is a lot more familiar with spread offenses, the OL has depth and experience, and the talent base is pretty much returning to a level more familiar to most of us as UM fans. And, of course, they now have a coach who belongs in this millenium.
None of the reasons for any of the things that have surprised us the last two years apply this year unless Forcier goes down to an injury, Robinson is overwhelmed, and Sheridan hasn't improved tons from last year.
I am sticking with my original 9-3, which would give me the "over."
Sort of agree with the explanations. However, "I'm sure people would have felt the same incredibility about the following before it actually happened." was the premise. When you say "None of the reasons for any of the things that have surprised us the last two years apply this year unless..." I don't doubt that, because they won't surprise again. However, "RR left with bare cupboard on defense, at OL, and at QB" was not a surprise to people paying attention, and expectations were still inflated.
For full disclosure, and Dex can verify, I thought the team would be 9-3 last year. Then I saw the first game, cried, and threw all expectations out the window. So this year, I'm thinking 5-7 is likely because there I wouldn't expect to beat anyone other than Indiana/Purdue/EMU/WMU/Delaware. I think it's PROBABLE they win 1 or more of the other 7 games, but on a per game basis, I wouldn't expect Michigan to be favored in any of them for good reason.
Also note that it's possible the starting safeties are a True Frosh and a RS Frosh, the linebackers are essentially the same inconsistent group from last year that haven't shown much outside of Mouton (who was injured). As for corners D-War was inconsistent last year and while his freshman year was good as the #2 CB he also had Adams and Englemon covering for him, now he's the #1 corner on a team where he won't be getting much safety help. Cissoku is a 5'8" sophomore. The D-Line is very likely worse off talent-wise than last year, and definitely not as deep.
It's important to note that the defense is very, very young. The offense is going to start a True Frosh with a backup that is also a True Frosh, then it's death behind them. If Tate gets injured, lookout below. As a result, I'd assume Tate will be protected a bit, so people should be prepared to stifle the bitching if the first couple games heavily feature bubble screens and TE Drags.
"so people should be prepared to stifle the bitching if the first couple games heavily feature bubble screens and TE Drags."
I completely agree but would go further. If you get football IMO you should HOPE for a profusion of TE drags that last longer than the first couple games. Tate's development this year, and IMO the well being of our team this year, are directly tied to his health and playing every minute possible. Seen in this light, I will be literally annoyed if the play calling doesn't lean to the conservative, with one goal to protect him from big hits as much as possible. That is way more important than pleasing the "open it up" crowd.
Lloyd left the next potential head coach a fucking 5 star QB (Mallett) and an all Big Ten offensive lineman (Boren). Now, do I blame Rich Rod for those two players leaving? Nope, but, I don't blame Carr, either.
Also, can we please stop with the whole "game had passed Lloyd by" bullshit? How the fuck do you even begin to prove a statement like that? Michigan is not the only team that has had problems with dynamic dual threat QBs. I watched Vince Young rip USC's four and five star defensive recruits to shreds, too. We have a long way to go before this defense is better. There is a dearth of talent on that side of the ball and this current recruiting class isn't exactly off to a great start in securing the elite talent necessary to fix it.
BTW, I love how you put the word "retirement" in quotation marks. I sincerely hope that you're not stupid enough to believe that Lloyd was in any way forced out of his job. He was not. In fact, if Lloyd still wanted to be coaching, he would be no matter how much you would like to believe otherwise.
And let's get real about Mallett. Carr was about to toss him out, and in fact did throw transfer papers at him.
"How the fuck do you even begin to prove a statement like that? "
App State dude. App FUCKING STATE! Maybe the game didn't pass him by, but he sure as hell fucking didn't have the energy or the desire to bring it day in and day out. The arrogance in just assuming they would roll over and die led to the worst loss in UM history. Whether he was trying to let English/Debord prove they could be the HC or w/e the fuck was going on, that debacle was 100% avoidable and the blame falls squarely onto Lloyd's shoulders. Fact: Lloyd was burned out and Martin had to talk him into coming back for those last couple years.that one entitled, immature QB with questionable work ethic and Mr. Plow do not a competitive team make.
Boren & Mallet would've been better than ANYTHING we had at those positions last year. Lloyd threw transfer papers at other players throughout his tenure as head coach of Michigan, too. (Shawn Crable is one that I can think of right off the top of my head). It was something that Lloyd did to motivate certain players. The Appy St. loss is not proof that the game had passed Lloyd by. The defensive schemes that he & English used are commonplace in college football. If you want to say that the team was ill prepared in all three phases of the game (defensively,offensively & special teams wise) for the start of the season, I would buy that (I also believe that Appy St. had a pretty damn good football team in its own right in '07). That does not equate to Lloyd being out of touch with today's game. Again, in this particular case, that's just a cliche that nobody can prove.
I agree overall with the sentiment of this post, though I do think that Lloyd was starting to slip - maybe not that the game passed him by, but that he didn't have the same grip over the program that he used to. He woke up with a fury after the Oregon game, but if you look at the increase in disciplinary problems and the losses to App. State and Oregon, it indicates a declining level of awesomeness from Lloyd. And though we all know you love Mr. Plow with a passion, he was a serviceable player, but no star.
I am, however, totally with you that anyone who puts Lloyd's "retirement" in quotes is a slack-jawed assrag who hasn't been paying any attention to the Michigan program outside of CFN.
with Shock.
All 4 points in the OP are valid concerns. However, we'd have been a whole lot better than 3-9 last year if we just stopped turning the ball over, or if we could hit a 7-8 yard out pattern. I've gotta think 5-7 or 6-6 would have been easily within our grasp. If those 2 relatively minor issues resolve, and we add a year experience to our line, have better QB play, etc, we have to improve. Significantly better improvement than forecasted = over.
I was thinking the same thing about the turnovers. The Toledo game and the ND game both would have been different if it were not for turnovers. If I remember right the Purdue game was the same way. Take those losses away from us and last year we would have been 6-6. This year I think RR will have gotten the new system jitters out of them and aside from a few freshman mistake picks I think we will be vastly improved on the turnover facet. I think our offense will really gel this year and will keep our D off of the field more than last year. Personally I think 7-5 will be a bottom but probably (hopefully) more like 9-3. I do not see 2 B11 teams going to BCS bowls so that means that #2 in the B11 will go to the Cap One bowl, so we will probably not end up there but I think that we cold very well end up playing in a somewhat smaller bowl game on Jan 1. For what it is worth I think that OSU is non-BCS Bowl bound. IMHO
I remember last year when Herbstreit predicted 6-6 and everyone though that was way too low. yeah...
I'd like to think that we're going to defy expectations and maybe squeeze out a 10 win season, but that's doubtful.
Why don't we just let the season play itself out instead of worrying about 'what if this, what if that' happens.
Because modern medicine is in such a sorry state that it is still impractical to artifically induce a coma until September 5.
the season play itself out. However since it's the offseason and we have nothing else to discuss we might as well throw out some what ifs and predictions.
If you have anything more excited to talk about on the forum feel free to bring it to everyones attention.
Back to the thread topic I think I would go with over. I think 8 wins would be a possibility mainly because I don't think any of the B10 teams look all that strong. If we can have turnovers go our way we should have a shot at all of the B10 games.
the season does not start for 2 more months so these empty what-ifs are all we have. I hate this time of year.
I'm sticking by my 7-5 prediction until the team proves it right or wrong, but if I had to pick something else - I'd take the under (6-6 or worse).
Ok, time to push out some arguments to go with my opinion.
As we all know, these are our opponents (with random notes injected on swing games, as far as this over/under is concerned):
Western Michigan Swing
Western is a decent team - after all, they beat Illinois last year. However Illinois is, as someone put it, a Jekyll & Hyde team. This is at home, and Michigan's got something to prove.
Notre Dame Swing
Charlie & co. - actually you know what, forget it. I will direct you to look up other posts for previous discussions on last year's ND game, and what that means for this year.
Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Purdue. Likely wins.
These teams are who they are and will probably always be who they are. The "Indianas of the world," as it were.
Delaware State (win)
A loss to Delaware St would be unprecedented. "But but, Appalachian St!" I hear you cry. I submit that 2007 Appalachian St. was not your average FCS team, and I invite anybody to argue against that one. Delaware St. on the other hand, most certainly is your average FCS team.
at Michigan State, at Iowa, Penn State, at Illinois, at Wisconsin, Ohio State. Assorted wins, mostly losses.
I'm going to go WAY OUT on a limb and say our range of possible records is 3-9 through 9-3. (if your sarcasm meter is broken: this is not way out on a limb)
If you take worst scenario possible at 3-9, our most likely losses are WMU, Notre Dame, MSU, Iowa, PSU, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and OSU.
First let's get this straight: losses to EMU, Indiana, and DelaSt. probably won't happen. arg arg arg if they do.
I think it's unlikely we lose to ND (see others), and even less likely we lose to Purdue. That alone bumps us to 5-7. WMU is a noted swing game. It can go either way; WMU is at least decent and our team is unproven, but functional. A win puts it at 6-6.
Thus, any combination of wins or losses in these three games puts us between 3-9 and 6-6.
I further opine (epine?) that these scenarios are far more likely than the overs in my range: 8-4 and 9-3.
First we find our two most likely games to get us to 8-4. We're left with Wisc, MSU, Iowa, OSU, PSU, Ill. Pick a third to get to 9-3.
I cannot think of a single team that has not experienced injuries during a football season, so they must be accounted for. Most injuries on the defensive side of the ball will hurt depth considerably.
I'm sticking with the 7-5 because we can definitely pull off at least one of those games. Two? Eh... I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch out of the eggs I've left out of the basket. I prefer erring on the side of caution. Hence why I take the under, if I'm forced away from 7-5.
I will say that I will always, from this point forward, be prepared for the worst (because we saw that the worst can happen). Having said that I am quite optimistic about this year and think that the 7-5 is just about spot on but in picking an over/under, I would have to go over. I think with the increase in talent and knowledge of the system, we have the tools at our disposal to win at least 7 and possibly 8 games this year. If you lok at our schedule there isn't one game that you would look at and say "there is absolutely no way we can win this game". However, as evidenced by last year there is also no game I can look at and say "there is no way we can lose this game".
I say 7-5.
That’s exactly how I feel; however if I had to choose something (other than my prediction of 7-5), I have to go with under.
We should beat: Indiana, Eastern, Delaware St. and Purdue.
We shouldn’t beat: Iowa and Illi (I’m sorry but I don’t think our D can keep up).
Everyone else I think is a toss up (including osu, but that depends on how their qb and if the D is suspect, but I doubt it), but I had to chose at least I’d say we lose at least 4 of them so I’m going 6-6.
You think Iowa and Illinois are teams we shouldn't beat, but OSU and PSU are toss-ups? You have a very unique prediction here, not sure where you're coming from, but I wouldn't mind hearing it.
Also, in response to your earlier post, WMU will not be as good as they were last year, and last year they weren't even THAT good. Yeah, they beat Illinois. UI was about as bipolar last year as any team I've seen. They didn't beat anyone else of value, and they lost almost every single starter from their defense. I'm not that worried.
its more likely that Michigan will finish 6-6 than 8-4. Id be shocked if they went 5-7 or 9-3.
...last year was a confluence of happenings that were ridiculous: crappy quarterbacks, a coach and coordinator who didn't get along, players wanting to fight on the sidelines, true freshmen all over the park, vital players out injured or playing injured, and unbelievable bad luck (the torrential downpour in South Bend, the crappy weather against Northwestern, the missed chip shot against Toledo).
There is a lot more talent on board this year. The players are all motivated to avoid the 2008 experience and are working hard. Coach Rod has a lot of "his" players here now (at least 30 on the team). Those who don't want to put in the work, no longer are in a position to harm the team (Mr. Butler, your table is waiting).
And I feel like I've written this a lot, but......turnovers directly caused four losses last year. Bad QB play also contributed. If the TO's are halved, and Tate plays competently, that is a start. The defense, while very thin, has talent. If injuries are avoided, Coach Robinson is placing players in positions where they can be a strength to the team. There is no reason the team won't be markedly better this year.
The team went to a bowl for 30+ straight years. Now after one year everyone is going to be "pessimistic?" C'mon. If Minnesota can go from 1-11 to 7-6 simply by improving its defense from 119th to 80th, and getting a lot of turnovers, imagine what a team with talent can do?
I take the over. Michigan will beat WMU, EMU, Indiana, Delaware St. and Purdue without question. It should beat Notre Dame (three of Notre Dame's TDs were directly after or during Michigan TOs, and Michigan got screwed out of a TD. That's a 28 point swing. Even it out - Michigan wins), Iowa and Wisconsin. Michigan wins 2 of these. The tough ones are Illinois, Penn State, Little Brother and Ohio State. Michigan wins 1 of them.
8-4.
without rehashing it all...last year was a perfect storm of shitiness. the kind of bad luck the team faced last year cant repeat itself again...right?
There are three factors extremely disquieting in looking to the coming year.
1) It is virtually impossible to fully gauge the impact of a freshman QB. However, the stats guys indicate that freshman qb's are rarely a good sign. In the best scenarios, a freshman QB has a strong veteran OL, (nope,) a stable of experienced, talented WR's (nope,) a standout RB or two (hmmm,) or a lockdown defense (nope.)
2) The above-mentioned OL . . . the OL has a huge impact, and is typically ignored when rating the team. We need an OL that will both protect the QB, give him time to pass, and open lanes to run. While we have a veteran OL, they haven't proven themselves extensively to me.
3) The above-mentioned defense. We'll see what Gerg brings, but to my way of thinking, riffing off of Brian Cook, I have misgivings about our secondary. Too many big plays broke our back last year.
for all the reasons you cite. if tate goes down, we're boned. if BG goes down, we're boned. if a key DB goes down, we're boned. if a key DT goes down, we're boned.
Umm... if a key anybody on any team goes down, they're certainly in trouble, if not "boned".
I'm not nearly as worried as you because you make it sound like there is NOBODY with any football experience or athletic talent waiting in the wings.
we don't have any at QB, DT or in the secondary. and noo, our 2nd teamers at those position don't have any football experience. they are true or RS FR.
i dont have the time to research this at work but what team can you say has "good" depth? michigan is thin, very thin, at some positions but i would wager that alot of teams are as well.
take ohio state...if TP goes down, dont they have the functional equivalent of nick sheridan at backup? no team in the big 10 is like usc, where 4 stars back up 5 stars.
most injuries hurt every team...can we really say that it is going to hurt michigan substantially more? i would say that any team that lost their best player would be drastically affected; its not just something unique to michigan.
if TP goes down, dont they have the functional equivalent of nick sheridan at backup?well, is the 2nd string OSU QB a walk-on or a true FR as ours is? i mean hell... our 2-deep at the safety positions have 3 FR on them. we are much closer to having walkons playing at these positions than most programs are.
OSU's 2nd string is Joe Bauserman, former baseball player, former walk on, rSo I think. All indications are that he's the plucky/gritty OSU Krenzel-esque QB.
Behind Bauserman they have random walk on redshirt freshman, and behind him they have random walk on true freshman.
Krenzel won a MNC. Bauserman, by all accounts, just sucks.
Krenzel was also a recruited player. Comparing him to a former walk-on is like comparing Navarre to Sheridan.
lol "boned"
Umm do you remember 2005 when Hart got hurt. We had Henne, Long, Manningham, Arrington, and many others and just with the loss of Hart we went from #3 preseason to an abysmal 7-5 with a terrible loss to Nebraska in the Outback Bowl. I think that it is safe to say that just about any team out there is going to suffer when they lose a key player. Think about how good USC would have been in '04 and '05 without Reggie Bush, Think about Texas without Vince Young in those same years. How about Florida without Tebow. Yes the injury bug can strike at anytime to any team and any person. We just have to hope that we don't get any of those injuries. That is like saying I am not going to put any money into a savings account because the savings and loan industry crashed a few years ago. In that case you should probably never get on a boat because the Titanic sunk and you should never get on a plane becasue there was that crash that one time. By the way it is not safe to drive a car either so you might want to find a way to not leave the house either.
This was mentioned before, but this team was a few turnovers away from going 6-6 last season. Since that should be improved by a quarterback with actual mechanics (albeit a true freshman) and older receivers and running backs, I think 6-6 is totally a reasonable prediction with 7-5 as a ceiling and 4-8 as a floor. I don't think we can fall below or above that 3 game range.
That's the way I look at it, in three of our close losses (Utah, Toledo and Northwestern) our quarterback numbers looked like this....
Utah
19-38 for 167 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Toledo
15-27 for 120 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
Northwestern
12 of 36 for 83 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT
Actually I guess the Utah numbers don't look all that bad, but if we get even average quarterback play in the other two games that gets us to 5 wins last year, even with everything else that went wrong.
If Tate can stay healthy I think 7-5 would be spot on but if I was putting money on the line I'd go with the under at 6-6.
18-0. Book it.
Seems entirely reasonable to me.