Regarding this year's record-what if the consensus is wrong?
Today we've seen from Dr. Saturday, yet another prediction for the upcoming season of 7-5. Most predictions seem to be around 6-6 or 7-5, with a mid-pack B10 finish and low tier bowl game. This is rapidly becoming a consensus opinion. If you follow the stock market, you know that contrarian bets against the current consensus often pay off big, as the majority opinion often turns out to be incorrect. For example, when a weekly poll of current institutional investors reaches a level where the majority are bullish, that is often a contrary indicator that the market is due for a short term drop.
So my question: if the consensus turns out to be wrong, and we finish either below (shoot me now) or above (muppets!) the prediction consensus of 7-5, which do you think it's likely to be? Better or worse than 7-5?
As for me I'll hedge a bit. I think the consensus is right, and am in the Phil Steele camp. But for the discussion I'll say "worse" because of 1-freshman QB(s) 2- potential injuries 3- defensive depth and 4- almost no one expects it
more downside than upside vs. a 7-5 prediction.
I know a lot of nice statistics about turnovers and rebound seasons have been popping up - and they certainly give me hope - but those just get us back up to .500 or just slightly above. To do anything beyond 7-5, in my opinion (generally an extreme optimist), would be astounding.
If 8-4 happens, I will be positively gleeful, and then I will start praying that we don't get blown out in the bowl game and have a sour taste left in our mouth after what will otherwise have been a remarkable turnaround.
Are we talking in circles here?
Note to off-season: please end.
They we should be 4-8 or maybe 5-7 ... maybe.
If not, 3-9 again.
I just hope they mic Tate up so we all get to hear his clavicle getting snapped.
Or are you just trying to stir shit up?
If you'd like, I'll definitely make you a bet that Michigan ends up at 6-6 or better.
EDIT: Really - if this is a sincere prediction, I'd put up a bet against it. Holla back.
I don't see Michigan doing any better than .500 in the Big 10, so it really does come down to the first two games. Beat WMU and ND and 8-4 becomes a real possibility. A little ancillary bonus would be to beat MSU and muffle all this baseless D'Antonio praise. 8-4 with wins over ND and MSU, who wouldn't take that? The BEST I think we can hope for would be 9-3....9-3 gets you ranked and a possible New Years Day Bowl. That would be something.
Last year we were all overly optimistic. This year everyone is overcompensating by being pesemistic. My gut seems to be telling me 9-3. Evidence? I see all the same things that others see in terms of our roster depth and am nervous about our freshman QB once he starts getting hit...but in spite of that...I just have that 9-3 feeling baby!
agreed
Under. 5-7 or 6-6, unfortunately.
The schedule sets up poorly with likely 7 games Michigan is the underdog in, and I just don't see how the defense will be improved from last year. I think they take one, maybe two, of those games, but also lose one that we all think they will win (Western? Purdue?)
With last year's schedule, I think this team wins 7 games...