Recruiting Notes: 247 Posts Multiple CBZ For 8(!) Top Michigan Targets
I don't think it's any reason to get particularly excited. I just got my Crystal Ball account yesterday and made a few predictions. I believe Garrett Fishaw and Brandon Justice (also Michigan writers) got theirs yesterday/recently as well, so they made some predictions, too. It's just the noobs catching up at the first opportunity.
Don't they accumulate more points the earlier they pick correctly?
Yes. It behooves accurate pickers to pick early.
But tell us more about your Ballz, Magnus.
There's no wrong way to take that statement.
I'll tell you tonight. Meet me at midnight in the alley behind Potbelly.
Soup kitchen at midnight.
Crystal ball your women pics on touch the banner.
Just out of curiosity, Magnus, where will the information for your predictions come from? I have some concern, with the proliferation of ballz, that lots of predictions will all actually derive from the same source of information and make it look like lots of people independently agree on the likely outcome when in fact it's just an echo chamber. If Sam Webb thinks something will happen, and 15 other people make a prediction based on what Sam says, it looks like there are 15 pieces of evidence for the liklihood of that commit happening, when there's actually just 1 piece (strong as it may be).
I have the same concern with Brian and Ace, and others who absolutely have tons of knowledge about the program, but, as I understand it, no independent inside information or sources outside of others on the internet who are also presumably placing crystal ball predictions.
This was discussed at more length in the earlier thread (LINK), so I won't rehash it all here. I do hear some things outside of Scout, 247 Sports, etc. from players, parents, high school coaches, etc. I agree that the echo chamber issue is a concern. But if the main idea is to be right, then I don't think it matters much where someone gets the information.
Just for poops and giggles, let's say Person X gets all his information from "insiders" but gets 99% of his predictions correct. Then when Person X makes a prediction, you can be near certain that it's accurate.
Meanwhile, if Person Y is an "insider" but gets only 80% of his predictions correct, then you might place less stock in his accuracy. Part of the deal is knowing what information to trust and when.
As far as I'm concerned, I don't plan to litter 247 with CB picks just to get people talking. I just plan to make predictions for players I am confident about.
Thanks. I agree you can't put a lot of stock in the predictions, but I think the issue is, people naturally tend to think more ballz = more liklihood of a recruit committing, when that won't necessarily be true as this problem expands.
To make a simple example, let's say your Person Y above predicts we'll get recruit 1. Our chances of getting that recruit are about 80%. Now let's say Person Y predicts we'll get recruit 2, and 50 other predictors, all of whom base their predictions solely on Person Y's information, also predict we'll get Recruit 2. The chance of getting Recruit 2 is still about 80%, but it's going to be impossible for the average reader to tease that out without knowing where the actual independnet information comes from -- the average reader is going to obviously think we're much more likely to get Recruit 2. It's an extreme example, but you get the point.
And, to make matters worse, the crystal ball percentage thingy, which I think most people mistake as a percentage liklihood of securing a given recruit, will have a really high number for Recruit 2, and maybe not for Recruit 1, depending on other pickers.
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Or, you can take the balls in the light they are given and be, like, 'cruitan and not get all worked up about it. I always appreciate the actual conversations with targets, but I let 18 year olds be the kids they are. Less hard feelings that way. Oh BTW, congfats Magnus, well deserved props.
Not sure if you're aware of it, but the "twitter" link in your sig directs to your website. Hopefully just an error, and not a crappy way of getting more clicks.
I didn't know that. Thanks for telling me. That's a link to an old post from last year. I'm not quite sure how that happened, but I'll fix it.
No problem. Enjoy your ballz!
He's a nice dude with limited football knowledge who poses as the blog "expert" on recruiting. While he knows about as much if not less about scouting prospects than the average reader on this blog, he at least takes the time and effort to build and post stuff on his blog - which piggy-backs off of mgoblog for traffic.
He's like Uncle Rico, but in the form of a coach, and his efforts to sound more informed and knowledgeable than the rest of the board are quite redeeming if you take them for what they are worth..... a guy who wishes he could be a player, coach, or scout of some significance.
Hell, I wish I could coach football or some other sport at a high level, so in the spirit of old commercial memes...here's to you, guy who creates a blog based on pseudo-expertise which is funneled from information from the four big recruiting sites out there. Given the lack of credentials or expertise required by said sites, I expect you can land a job at one of them, for which you have been positioning for quite some time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1GQWsKz4GY
The funny thing is that the only people who refer to me as an "expert" are people trying to drag me down. I don't claim to be anything more than a coach who runs a recruiting site. But don't pretend that I don't do my own writing and analysis, because that's simply untrue. If you don't like the info, then disregard it.
nevermind, Magnus beat me to it.
BALLZ!
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I love my Ballz. Yours, I'm ambivalent on.
we're Michigan ferGODsakes!
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"not getting too excited", but I think I will anyway - at least a little. When it comes to recruiting I tend to be an eternal optimist. And with the Harbaugh staff, there's more likelihood of some of the players actually coming here.
8 ballz? That's a lot of ballz, roughly the same number flying at a Kardashian on any given weekend...
Ba-dum-tisss!
Don't encourage me, please.
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Fine. Wow, 8 ballz is a lot. That's what Connor Cook's mom calls a "Cincinnati 4-Pack"...
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8 crystal ballz??? Connor Cook hasn't seen that much crystal since he was shopping for an anniversary gift for his boyfriend at Swarovski (NTTAWWT)...
I dated him.