Question about tiebreaker rules
So I realize this is premature, but Saturday's awful result got me thinking about whether there is any reasonably likely scenario in which we can still make the B1G championship game. It seems the best hope would be:
1. We win out.
2. Sparty loses to Ohio State.
3. Ohio State state wins its remaining games other than The Game.
This would put all of us with 1 loss in conference play. So the question for the board is how the tiebreaker rules play out in that scenario.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^
I beleive nonconference wins would knock us below MSU and OSU in your scenario. But it's still extremely plausible that MSU loses to OSU and one other team. If that happens and we win out, we're in the B1G championship. Obviously a long way to go before that.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^
I take it back, looks like CFP ranking comes above overall record. Regardless, we'll likely be below MSU and OSU in that, so we need MSU to lose twice.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html
October 19th, 2015 at 12:55 PM ^
I guess it would be possible if they got really blown out by OSU and then we came back and really blew out OSU the next week.
I think it is pretty unlikely tht will happen but it is possible.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
While MSU isn't that great of a team, Nebraska is horrific. I fully expect MSU to beat Nebraska.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 3:14 PM ^
God bless the B1G
October 19th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^
The Cornhuskers are not as bad as you think.
- A Hail Mary cost them a win.
- Mike Riley's questionable time management cost his team a win against Illinois.
- Suffered a close loss at home versus Wisconsin in the final minute. Badgers kicked a FG with 4 seconds to win 23-21.
October 19th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
Problem is, those three losses are against average-to-crappy teams. Nebraska is not good and MSU win handily.
That said, MSU has been the most underwhelming top 10 team I can remember in a long time, and I don't think I've ever seen a team back their way into lucky wins like they continue to do.
Everyone is saying OSU will hammer Sparty, but I'm pretty confident MSU will win that game. Not only is OSU the only challenge left on their schedule so can they put everything into that gameplan, but there is the potential of OSU looking ahead to us the following week. Also, if there was ever a team to luck into actually playing a creampuff in a conference title game (what will likely be an undefeated and artificially highly ranked Iowa team, which by blowing them out will lock them into a playoff spot), it's Sparty.
I really hope I'm wrong, but until their luck runs out, it's kind of looking like their recent paved road to the Final Four.
/pukes
October 19th, 2015 at 5:26 PM ^
Wisc and BYU are both above average teams right now, well above average in Wisconsin's case if you're talking about average FBS (they're 35th out of 120+ in F/+ rankings).
Neb has a chance at home, and while I agree with you that the OSU-MSU game isn't a given, it's highly likely to go in OSU's favor, especially now that it looks like their QB situation is sorting out. No way they look past a top 5 undefeated team if that's what Sparty is at the time.
October 19th, 2015 at 3:11 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^
Could you fucking imagine their reaction if this happened? Better record, head to head win, and still get passed over.. their heads might literally explode from the overload of disrespect.
October 19th, 2015 at 3:39 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 2:41 PM ^
even if that were to happen wouldnt we have to be ahead of OSU in the polls?
October 19th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
As Nebraska proved when they were voted half of Michigan's 1997 National Championship, the voters don't downgrade teams for winning like StAEE did on Saturday. Even though the "miracle" should have been called back on a penalty, voters will just look at the records.
We may be looking at a situation where Michigan beating OSU guarantees Sparty a spot in the Big Ten Championship game against the weaker division and a place in the playoffs for beating a Big Ten West tomato can.
I won't ever cheer for OSU agianst Michigan, but it might be a nice emotional "hedge" for the game.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
If you consider it okay that OSU beating us is okay if it prevents MSU from playing in the big ten title game...just wow.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:18 PM ^
Yup. I'd rather see MSU's winning the conference title than OSU. OSU has won about 58 conference titles since 2002 and I'm god damned sick of it.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
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October 19th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^
...or takes the South Carolina job.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
October 19th, 2015 at 3:19 PM ^
No, overall record is #6. This is the record between the tied teams. The only way that this can come up is if the teams are tied with (at least) two losses each, in which case it's possible for one of them to have swept the other two.
For example:
Michigan beats OSU and PSU but loses at Minnesota
MSU loses to PSU and OSU
OSU loses to Minnesota (and Michigan)
PSU wins all other games (loses to Michigan and already lost to OSU)
Now you have UM, MSU, OSU, and PSU tied with two losses each. UM and OSU are 2-1 against the tied teams; MSU is 1-2, and PSU is 0-3. MSU and PSU are eliminated, and Michigan wins the division title due to head-to-head over OSU.
I'm not saying this will happen -- it's obviously a contrived scenario -- but that's when tiebreaker #1 would come into play.
October 19th, 2015 at 4:09 PM ^
This is possible with just one loss each. Crappy example, but: if MSU beats OSU but loses to Indiana, OSU and Michigan win all remaining games.
Then OSU, MSU, Michigan are tied with one loss; MSU wins first tie-breaker with winning record against the other two teams.
October 19th, 2015 at 7:12 PM ^
No, it's not possible. In your scenario, the tie is strictly between MSU and the winner of the UM/OSU game. The loser of that game -- let's say OSU -- has two losses; one to MSU and one to UM.
That's why it's not possible to have tiebreaker #1 come into play in a "everyone has one loss" scenario -- the tied teams play each other three times, so you have to distribute 3 losses amongst them. If one sweeps the other two, one of the swept teams must necessarily have another loss*.
* by the pigeonhole principle. Who says theoretical mathematics doesn't have practical, real-world applications? ;-)
October 19th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
Disagree that we would be ranked worse than MSU and OSU in the hypothetical. Currently in the AP, MSU is at 7 and we are at 15. Obviously we don't know where all of the teams will be ranked in the future but it seems likely that an MSU loss to OSU would drop them below us. And if we beat OSU in the final game of the regular season, there would be a strong case to jump us ahead of OSU as well.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
So a one loss MSU, drops below a two loss Michigan, who lost to MSU? Seems unlikely, but that would really make Sparty howl.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^
We have only one year of committee actions to judge but they have shown that they will look at game performance and not just win-loss record. The final regular season rankings (i.e., the very rankings that determined which teams would play in the playoffs) set Alabama and Oregon as #1 and #2 (each with one loss) ahead of an undefeated Florida State, which was the defending national champions to boot.
Unfortunately, the committee rankings are not yet out so we do not know how they specifically will view Saturday's game performance but if AP pollsters are any indication the pollsters were not impressed w/ MSU (keeping them at the same ranking) and relatively impressed w/ UM (which moved down just two spots).
October 19th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
...and Sparty loses at OSU, I fully expect to jump MSU. I believe this is the best game Sparty will play all season. They are a banged up team with a poor secondary that a good enough QB will exploit. If OSU doesn't beat them by 2+ TDs, I'll be surprised. People are looking for a reason to drop Sparty, much like FSU last year. One loss and they'll be on the outside of the top 10.
If we are 9-2 going into The Game, we'll likely be close enough in the rankings to jump OSU with a victory.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:36 PM ^
However, this is where the whole when you lose thing comes into play....
If this scenerio were to play out that is, MSU OSU Michigan all win out until the last two weeks of the season, we would simply need to just close the gap in the rankings really. Taking Coaches poll into account, we are 17th, MSU 4th and OSU 1st with 4 weeks between OSU MSU... thats a lot of Football and a lot of those teams in between us play each other. If going into that second to last week we are top 10 anywhere and OSU beats MSU and Michigan crushes osu, might not be out of reach....
October 19th, 2015 at 1:42 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^
... So, an analyst on radio says a B1G committee will decide the representative, huh? [Snarky comment deleted]
Meanwhile, upthread, you can find a link to the Big Ten website that details the tiebreaking procedures:
1 - record within the tied group
2 - record within the division
3 - record against teams 4, 5, 6, 7 in the division, in order
4 - record against common conference opponents
5 - highest ranked team in hte CFP poll, unless the two highest ranked are within 1 spot, in which case, head to head between those two.
In the scenarios being discussed -- OSU beats Sparty, UM beats OSU, no other losses -- this goes to #5, which says that Michigan needs to be first in the poll, and 2 spots ahead of Staee, to advance.
This isn't 1973. There's no B1G committee.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
If OSU MSU and Michigan all end with 1 loss in the conference and had beaten eachother ( OSU beats MSU who beats Michigan who beats OSU)
The tiebreaker will then go to the top ranked CFP ranked team unless the teams are within one spot of the standings it then goes to the team who won the head to head match.
so if we win out and look good in doing so that means we beat OSU. given if MSU loses to OSU we could hop up in the rankings within one spot of OSU and given that we won the head to head we would play in the BIG conference championship game.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
Posted in error, but can't delete.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
At this point I think we would need MSU to lose two games- presumably one of which would be OSU (although wouldn't it be sweet if MSU lost two games yet somehow beat OSU?) and then obviously we need to win out. It's not as unlikely as some would believe. It's hard to imagine MSU continuing to pull out these miracle wins week after week. And who knows, Indiana may catch them still celebrating next Saturday.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:53 PM ^
The way I read it was that it would go to overall record first -- which would knock us out with a 10-2 record over their 11-1. We need MSU to lose twice. We need to win out and beat Ohio State. That would for sure put us in the Big Ten Championship. Michigan State @ Nebraska, vs Ohio State, vs Penn State would be their best chances to lose in my opinion.
October 19th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
Finally, someone who got it right.
Thank you!
October 19th, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^
Overall record is #6: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html
Before that comes Football Playoff poll. We would need OSU to beat MSU (in order to prevent MSU from winning tie-breaker #1), and we need to beat OSU, then leapfrog both in the poll--and make sure that we're at least 2 spots above MSU. Unlikely to happen but possible.
The more likely path involves MSU losing twice, at which point we could win out and go. Given MSU's play, that wouldn't be incredibly unlikely, but it's still probably not going to happen.
October 19th, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
Correction, as someone else noted, we wouldn't need to leapfrog both in the poll, just MSU, and trail OSU by one. Still very unlikely but that seems much more plausible if MSU continues to squeak by.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
I think overall record is one of the early tie breakers which is dumb because it discourages good ooc schedules. Further down the list is championship rankings which Michigan will also lose because they started the season unranked.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
I don't think overall record comes into play until like step 5 or 6. The first several steps are all based on what teams do within the conference and within the division.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
Overall record is #6, and only comes into play if somehow all three of the teams tie in the CFP poll, which seems... unlikely, to put it mildly.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:55 PM ^
Hope for MSU to get beat by Nebraska and Penn State but beat OSU then we win out. Then there will be no tie
October 19th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
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October 19th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
We don't need MSU to beat OSU. We need MSU to have two losses and the most likely way for that to happen is one of the losses to OSU. Then, if we win out, we're in (best OSU could be is tied with us for first, but we'd have beaten them head to head, so we end up winning the two-way tiebreaker).
October 19th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^
But in my scenario every one is 10-2 but both OSU and MSU have lost 2 conference games to our 1 that would mean we wins.
October 19th, 2015 at 4:25 PM ^
Nobody's complaining that we wouldn't win in your scenario, just that it's not necessary.
If MSU loses twice, no matter who it is, Michigan just needs to win out. Even if OSU beats MSU and wins against everyone except us, our conference records would be tied and our head-to-head win would send us.