Question about tiebreaker rules
So I realize this is premature, but Saturday's awful result got me thinking about whether there is any reasonably likely scenario in which we can still make the B1G championship game. It seems the best hope would be:
1. We win out.
2. Sparty loses to Ohio State.
3. Ohio State state wins its remaining games other than The Game.
This would put all of us with 1 loss in conference play. So the question for the board is how the tiebreaker rules play out in that scenario.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
The link to the Big Ten's own rules on the football tiebreaker scenarios are here - LINK
If I read this right, it doesn't go by just conference record - three teams would have to be, say, 11-1 or 10-2 overall before they began to run down the tiebreakers under subsection (b). If we are are 10-2 and MSU and OSU are 11-1, the tiebreaker is who won the game between those two.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
Maybe I'm a complete homer but I don't think it's tough. History shows us that the playoff committee will make good on its word in placing extra emphasis on the head to head match ups. This happened last year when the committee moved TCU down three spots in the final regular season ranking and moved Baylor ahead of TCU - notwithstanding the fact that TCU had rolled off seven consecutive victories (most by blow outs) while Baylor squeezed past some close games.
OSU is at #1 so can't move up at all. If we move up 7 spots or so over the next 5 weeks, we would be at #8 (AP poll) when we play them. I could see the committee moving us to #4 from #8 and OSU to #6 with a Michigan victory in the final game. MSU would be behind us by that point with a loss at OSU and they close the season against PSU.
One distinction to the TCU/Baylor scenario is that both had the exact same record when the committee penalized TCU for the head to head loss.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
Technically wouldn't have to be above both. Would have to be above MSU and within one spot of OSU in CFP. "The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game."
October 19th, 2015 at 1:36 PM ^
We win out, they lose to OSU. Pre-championship game poll comes out, OSU is 5, we're 6, MSU is 7. In that case, we'd go to the Championship game, and sparties would go absolutely insane.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
If you google Big Ten football tiebreakers it's the first result. Not being snarky, I'd post the info here but it keeps getting flagged as spam.
The first tiebreaker in a 3-way tie is overall record. In your scenario MSU and OSU would be 11-1 and Michigan 10-2, so it would go to the head to head between MSU and OSU (OSU goes).
So we'd need some additional help here.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
See, I interpret the provisions differently, but I understand why you interpret them your way. I interpret (b)(1) to mean a head-to-head analysis. I think (b)(6) covers overall record. The drafting leaves something to be desired.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
The first tiebreak is the best record in games played among the tied teams. The wording is a bit clumsy, but that clearly should be the first tiebreak. Note that it isn't considered later.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:59 PM ^
(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:24 PM ^
Criterion 5 should be switched around to say: "The head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game."
Fuck that shit about depending on a completely separate poll to come within ONE spot of each other. In this system, if we beat OSU and the final poll reads OSU #5, UM #7, OSU makes the playoff just because there was a 3-way tie. Even though we beat them. Not our fault Condy Rice decides to vote OSU above UM despite losing their head-to-head matchup.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^
It would be more like Brady's first year when we got the Sugar Bowl over an MSU team that beat us.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
Michigan cannot win the division with a three way tie. Our only hope is to have MSU knock themselves out of the running with two losses. Then we could beat OSU and have it be a two way tie. Then, because of that head-to-head win, we would win the division. Anything other than a two way tie between us and OSU with a victory over them will result in us getting knocked out, either due to head-to-head losses or a lower overall record.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 19th, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^
We're at 15, winning out would probably put us around 8 or so. It's not unreasonable that the final CFB rankings look something like this:
1. BU 12-0
2. Utah 12-0
3. Clemson 12-0
4. Iowa 12-0
5. Bama 11-1
6. LSU 11-1
7. TCU 11-1
8. OSU 11-1
9 Michigan 10-2 (after upsetting top ranked OSU)
10. MSU 11-1 (after getting blown out by OSU second last week)
This is assuming that Stanford loses a Pac 12 game somewhere and they beat ND.
The CFB committee has rewarded teams for playing tough non conference and everyone saw the flukey loss on Saturday. Is this wishful thinking? Probably, but it's definitely not out of the realm of possibilty. We want as many undefeated teams as possible. Jumping up 6 spots over the next 5 weeks isn't that crazy. If the rankings are within 1, it goes to head to head between the top 2.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 19th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^
The rankings that matter are the ones before the conference title games because that's the tiebreaker.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:12 PM ^
No, because the discussion is how the participants for the title game are determined, not the playoff participants.
While it would not be unprecendented for Michigan to earn a berth in the playoff with two losses (counting the BCS as the playoff -- I'm thinking LSU '07), I think a Big Ten and Rose Bowl title are the realistic top possibilities for this season.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
If any of that were to happen the BIG could be completely left out of the NC Title Games. With SEC, BIG 12, PAC and ACC in.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
It's unlikely that Michigan gets there, but I don't care at this point. The most important thing is beating OSU this year. Would I like UM to get to the title game? Sure, of course. It's just unlikely. MSU will definitely lose in Columbus, but they won't lose another game outside of that, which will put them ahead of us. If we win out and MSU only loses to OSU, we are effectively sending them to Indianapolis, likely to play Iowa, where they would likely win. That's fine with me, though. I'd rather MSU get there than OSU. I will forever hate OSU more, as should all UM fans.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
I thought that overall record came before CFP rankings. Not so. If we win out and Sparty loses to OSU giving everybody 1 loss the highest ranked team will go to the championship. Which could very easily be UM. Right?
CFP ranking is #5 on list and overall record is #6.
So we only need Sparty to lose once, we win out and get ranked higher than them. DISRESPECT and Morks head explodes.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 19th, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 19th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 19th, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^
I believe the most difficult thing about Michigan getting to the B1G championship is winning the rest of our games. It is very probable that Sparty drops two (or more). For all the angst about that game, I don't think it dramatically altered our probabilityof winning the division or the conference.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^
I believe the most difficult thing about Michigan getting to the B1G championship is winning the rest of our games. It is very probable that Sparty drops two (or more). For all the angst about that game, I don't think it dramatically altered our probabilityof winning the division or the conference.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
Don't bet on Sparty's losing two (or more). Even though they 100% lucked into beating Michigan, shit like that can drive a team the rest of the way. I think they only lose to OSU, thus finishing 11-1.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
| 8 | Oct 24, 2015 | (7) Michigan State | Indiana | Big Ten | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2015 | (7) Michigan State | @ | Nebraska | Big Ten |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2015 | (7) Michigan State | Maryland | Big Ten | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2015 | (7) Michigan State | @ | (1) Ohio State | Big Ten |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2015 | (7) Michigan State | Penn State | Big Ten |
MSU is going to lose @ Ohio State this year, but win the remaining teams decisively for 11-1 record and BCS bowl.
Who ever wins the east is going to play an unbeaten, overrate Iowa team and annihilate them on national television.
BIG10!!!!!!!
October 19th, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^
You're exactly right. Iowa is overrated and if we don't beat OSU, the buckeyes will kill the hawkeyes. I also agree with you (as stated above somewhere) that MSU will not lose twice. They will lose to OSU, but their greatest chance to lose again is at Nebraska (they suck, but that's why games are played on the field) and maybe PSU (yeah, I laughed, too when I typed "PSU").
October 19th, 2015 at 1:27 PM ^
CFP Ranking trumps overall record.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 19th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^
In a three way, one conference loss each, we'd go down the tie breakder list until we hit the CFP ranking tie-breaker. Using that tie-breaker, the highest ranked CFP team would get in UNLESS the second highest ranked CFP team is within 1 of the highest ranked and had beaten that team head to head. If Sparty is lowest ranked of the three, we don't need to be two above them, we just need to be above them and within one of OSU. If OSU is the lowest ranked, we'd need to be a least two ahead of Sparty.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^
No reason to think it won't be a close game. If they win that, but lose to OSU, it kills their playoff hopes. It likely eliminates them for the CCG too. That could leave them vulnerable to PSU.
They haven't won a league game decisively yet, desptie playing Purdue and Rutgers. I think we've already seen their best effort against us.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
Nebraska will be such a mess MSU will crush them.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:16 PM ^
Nebraska might see a night home game against a ranked opponent as an opportunity for redemption and play lights out. We just don't know. Regardless, Nebraska is more talented than Western, Purdue, or Rutgers.
I just think its a real possibility that Sparty drops two more games. They could go undefeated, but its unlikely.
October 19th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^
I mean, they almost lost to Rutgers so...
October 19th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
Assuming MSU loses to Ohio State and Michigan then beats OSU with all three winning their remaining games, this is what would happen:
1. All three would have a 1-1 record against the other two.
2. All three would be 5-1 in the East Division.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:47 PM ^
The rest of 5 -- you're parenthetical is not necessarily true. Albeit even less likely, OSU doesn't have to be above MSU. If M is highest and MSU second we'd be in if we were at least 2 spots above MSU.
October 19th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^
Re #4, presumably it would need to be an opponent that is in common for all three teams, so Minnesota would not count. So #4 wouldn't apply to a Mich-MSU-OSU tie.
It's not even possible for #4 to apply with the current 8-game conference schedule, since there would need to be a team from the other division that played all three tied teams, plus the other 6 in their division. Once the 9-game schedules start, it would be possible--though really unlucky for the team that filled up their out-of-division schedule with all three tied teams.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
This board has really gone downhill over the past 36 hours.
October 19th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
1. UM must win out (thus taking the tie breaker of H2H against PSU and OSU, assuming they don't lose any other games
2. MSU must lose twice, giving them a 6-2 conference record, behind UM's 7-1.
Am I missing something in this question?
October 19th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^
Yes, that there are ways for us to still sneak in with a one-loss MSU. Not likely ways, but there are ways.
October 19th, 2015 at 7:00 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 19th, 2015 at 6:39 PM ^