Propects For Year 2
Every game they seem to show stats about how RichRod started off at Tulane, WVU, etc., starting 3-9 then turning things around in year two. I'm wondering what people think the chances are of UofM getting 9 or 10 wins next year? We'll either be in year 2 of Threet (and I don't have faith that he can run this offense) or we'll be starting a freshmen (most likely Forcier). So either prospect doesn't have me too optimistic about getting near double digit wins next year.
I know we'll have many freshmen that will have plenty of game time experience come next year (Threet, Koger, McGuffie, Odoms, Cissoko, Stonum, Shaw) but this year shows how important the quarterback is to the spread. So we'll either be weak at this position next year (Threet) or very inexperienced (Forcier).
Is anyone else worried that we may not have this thing turned around next year????
October 20th, 2008 at 8:27 PM ^
October 20th, 2008 at 8:34 PM ^
October 20th, 2008 at 9:53 PM ^
Jesus, could anyone imagine that next year could "be as bad as this year"??
You would have to be a total masochist!!!
October 20th, 2008 at 8:38 PM ^
So we'll either be weak at this position next year (Threet) or very inexperienced (Forcier).
That's one way of looking at it. Another way is that we'll either have a QB with a season under his belt, or a frosh good enough to beat out a veteran QB - or a rotation of the two. Having a couple of frosh to push him could do Threet a lot of good, too. Last offseason his competition was Sheridan and Cone, so he didn't exactly have to rise to the occasion.
October 20th, 2008 at 8:47 PM ^
Good point.....I think Threet has shown improvement this year, he'll just never be the mobile type qb this offense needs. Ideally we need a McNabb-type qb (great thrower and runner) and I don't think Threet is that guy.
I believe Forcier will be on campus in December.....plenty of time to learn the offense and push Threet. But still a freshman.....!
October 20th, 2008 at 9:22 PM ^
I don't know if you forgot, but Threet didn't win that competition between Sheridan, Feagin, and the Coner. Sheridan had the first start and Threet only got in because Sheridan was terribly ineffective against Utah. I think that with both Shav and Tate there this Spring, he will be pushed and maybe beaten, but I do think it will come down to who does well in the games. I think there will be spells during the season during which whoever started will be pulled due to ineffectiveness.
It will be better but not entirely fixed. Remember, we have the EXACT SAME O-Line coming back as well.
October 20th, 2008 at 10:15 PM ^
"Remember, we have the EXACT SAME O-Line coming back as well. "Only if you think Dan O'Neill, or any of the other five freshman OL members from this year won't make a difference.
October 21st, 2008 at 7:30 AM ^
but with a years experience. And that is huge when it comes to the offensive line. The more they play together the better the group will get.
October 21st, 2008 at 9:15 AM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 9:42 AM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 10:39 AM ^
No unit on a football team takes more time to gel than the o-line. Don't underestimate how much experience is required to grasp all of the nuances of each individual position, either. These guys aren't slouches. They're just young and inexperienced.
This is an extreme example, but Notre Dame returned all but their center this year.
In 2007 they gave up 58 sacks and 113 TFLs in 112 games.
2008: 9 sacks and 34 TFLs in 6 games.
The only difference is experience.
Any team, no matter how bad their offensive line plays is going to be better off close to 100% of the time having those same guys back the next season.
October 21st, 2008 at 10:05 AM ^
Kurt Wemers, Rocko Khoury, Eliott Mealer, Dann O'Neill, Patrick Omameh and Ricky Barnum will all be ready to compete for a spot on the line after wearing a redshirt for a year. Cory Zirbel will also presumably be back from injury (he has one more year of eligibility regardless of a potential medical redshirt).
October 21st, 2008 at 1:01 PM ^
Right - I'd imagine Zirbel would replace that guard spot that's been a giant hole of suck (the McAvoy/Ortmann/Ferrara 3-headed monster spot). Zirbel was a top-50 recruit, and was generally thought to be our best lineman going into this year.
Schilling, obviously, will stay on. So, you'd be looking at Barnum competing with Molk for the Center spot, O'Neil competing with Ortmann for a tackle spot, and Khoury, I guess, competing with Mooseman for the other guard spot. I personally think we'll see Mooseman hold his job - he's probably been our best player on the line.
So, it would look like
T - Schilling
G - Mooseman/Khoury
C - Molk/Barnum
G - Zirbel
T- Ortmann/O'Neil
October 21st, 2008 at 6:54 PM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 7:37 PM ^
Zirbel played guard all last year (http://www.mgoblue.com/football/playerbio.aspx?id=69174), and Brian had him listed as a guard earlier this year - "Zirbel had locked down a starting guard spot." It was his injury that shifted Mooseman to guard and put Molk in at center.
October 21st, 2008 at 8:18 PM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:40 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 5:00 AM ^
Rumors are his injury is career threatening.
October 20th, 2008 at 9:26 PM ^
October 20th, 2008 at 9:28 PM ^
October 20th, 2008 at 10:07 PM ^
October 20th, 2008 at 10:09 PM ^
Sill a young O (a better O though). Defense loses a lot, and it ain't all that to begin with.
We will still be in that twilight zone where we are fighting for a bowl game. Any bowl game.
October 20th, 2008 at 10:13 PM ^
We will still have a young O (a better O though). The D loses a lot, and it ain't all that to begin with.
We will still be in that twilight zone where we are fighting for a bowl game. Any bowl game.
Take a deep breath.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:53 AM ^
We lose a lot on our D-line, but if Graham comes back, as he says he will. We have good talent on the line still. And the rest of our defense should improve, imo. Experience being key. Cissoko instead of Trent. Williams instead of Stewart. We still have to live with Brown, unless Smith beats him out.
I think our offense will be much more consistent next year. That is all our offense needs. Think about it. We score 17 on Penn State in Happy Valley when OSU couldn't come near that production in Columbus. We will score and a lot more next year.
I predict 8 wins
October 20th, 2008 at 10:42 PM ^
QB is very important in the spread....when you are weak at all other offensive positions as well. We are returning virtually every guy on our offense, and because of that, QB will be likely our only weak position, rather than "just as weak as all the others."
And the QB position will without a doubt be better. We will either be starting a freshman again, but one of two guys who are a perfect fit for the offense, or we will be starting a returning starter. Way better.
October 20th, 2008 at 11:32 PM ^
I don't really expect much for next season, but I'd be surprised if we didn't make a bowl. We'll have another good chunk of practice time, plus pretty much all our returning starters, plus all the guys who redshirted to compete with them (including guys like Dann O'Neil), plus all the new true freshman who might have the talent to make it on the field.
Our biggest problem I think, is going to be that we may again be using a true freshman at quarterback with a better but still weak O line.
I'm not sure how many guys will be graduating from defense?
October 21st, 2008 at 12:54 AM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 7:08 AM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 12:15 PM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 9:36 AM ^
The linebackers will be much better because of depth and added experience. I won't miss Trent or Thompson, tbh. Trent has turned into a major disappointment. I think Warren/Cissoko will be better than Warren/Trent especially if our safety play improves and they don't have to worry about covering for their mistakes all the time. We're going to have a ton of depth at LB with Fitzgerald, Barnes, and Demens in the wings. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them move outside and start in place of Evans. If Bell plays LB, count him as a plus for 2009 as well. He's special and could even start at LB or safety.
Sure the D-line loses Taylor, Jamison, and Johnson but those are the only seniors on the depth chart. I think Graham will be back. Add Campbell (hopefully) LaLota, Roh, and ?????? plus everyone else back and we have a ton of depth here, too.
I see the potential for this defense to be as good or even better next season.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:57 AM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 8:40 AM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 9:17 AM ^
Here's a stat.......teams with a negative TO margin.......70% of those teams improve their record the following year.......I think we're at -9 now, but will probably be in the -DD when the season is over.
We have that going for us.
October 21st, 2008 at 10:18 AM ^
October 21st, 2008 at 6:41 PM ^
ANY TEAM that returns all 11 starters from an offense is going to be decent. Keep in mind that guys improve A LOT between their freshman and sophomore seasons (big reason guys are redshirted) and our offense is likely to be quite a bit better next year. Our d-line will take a hit, but guys like ryan van bergen and mike martin have looked really good this year and should be solid starters next fall. Our LB corps will be better, and our secondary will be at worst a wash.
It looks likely that our defense is just as good as this year with our offense being much better. That makes for a promising season. Craziest part - most of those guys will be back for the following season as well. Big things ahead guys.
October 21st, 2008 at 9:21 PM ^
Yes there will be improvement - I'm just not sold that Threet will make the offense click. Defenses know he's not a running threat on a consistent basis so that shuts down the rest of the running game as the D can put more focus on stopping our running backs. And with Freshmen QB's (Forcier or Beav) there will be some growing pains. The upside is that both will be on campus in December which goes a long way in terms of adjusting to college and learning the offense. It should be interesting.
Regarding the D - I think Van Bergen and Martin will be stars (same with Cissoko). And there are some freshmen who haven't played that I think will be solid as well (Demens and Fitzgerald). But linebacker could be scary...we lost 2 strong recruits this year ('Spoon and Hill) so we're not as deep at LB as you would think.
October 21st, 2008 at 7:03 PM ^
I'm so sick of people saying that were gonna go .500 next year because of the lack of experience or talent in the QB position. It just so happens that not all Freshmen suck and the U-M seems to be one of the schools that always gets recruits. Who knows maybe Tate Forcier or Shavodrick Beaver will turn out to be the next Terelle Pryor :(
October 22nd, 2008 at 3:06 PM ^
But hopefully less streaky.
Next year's O-Line will be leaps above this year's (granted, that's certianly not saying anything...).
Our CBs will be the highlight of the defense, and LBs will get better. The D-line won't take the immense drop that everyone is expecting.
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:00 AM ^
Let's see, how hard is it to go .500?
You win 4 games against the non-conference "high schools"
You go 2-6 in conference.
OMG, my grandmother can do that (and she's dead!).
BTW, that is why many of us are so FREAKED OUT about a (potential? probable?) losing season this year!
You have to F'ng BLOW to have a losing season!!!!!
October 22nd, 2008 at 4:05 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 1:14 AM ^
Its not easy to predict our potential for next yr. Improving our offensive line is the key to turning this team around, whether it be with the current unit or with changes in the depth chart. Minor is a fumble machine which leads me to believe McGuffie will be the starter wen its all said and done. But McGuffie doesnt break tackles and needs a good Oline to spring him past the LOS and into the open field.
Heres the official current depth chart for the Oline:
LT - Dorrestein, Ortman
LG - Ortman, McAvoy
C - Molk, Moosman
RG - Moosman, Ferrera, Barnum
RT - Schilling, Dorrestein
Hate to break it to those of you who havent herd, but Zirbel's injury may be career ending, so lets not start putting him into the starting spot yet..
Dan Oneal and Wermers were both highly recruited, but we really cant know how theyr developing, as both are redshirted.
Schilling will likely stay at starting RT, since he has been our best lineman this yr. Moosman has been solid at RG. Molk has been getting tossed around due to his lack of size. Our depth at center is very limited as far as i no. Perhaps barnum or wermers will be converted to center to backup Molk. The left side of the line has been pretty bad. If there are changes in personelle, this is wer i expect them to happen. Oneal might takeover at LT if he has proven himself in practice. Wermers might takeover LG. Again its hard to say without seeing them play and knowing how theyr developing.
As for the defense, i think the losing Harrison will hurt. He was our best safety without question. Charles Stewart was our achilles heal and i think his replacement (brandon smith, mike williams) will be at least on par with him, if not an improvement. Im a fan of cissoko, as long as the safetys give him help on bigger wideouts, especially in the redzone wer they can take advantage with jump balls. The key to the secondary is improving our tackling. Our safetys have been atrocious at tackling over the past 3 yrs; weve seen countless long runs for td's b/c of missed tackles.
The LB's have been extremely disappointing. Ezeh was named the captain of the defense, but has failed to play like one. Our outside LB's have been eaten alive in coverage. Mouton has gotten better in covering the run, but for a converted safety, he cannot protect against the pass. Im shocked that we havent seen Fitzgerald get any time at LB so far this season. Thats prob not a good sign in terms of his development. Demens is redshirted so who knows. Losing wetherspoon and hill might hurt us here, with our options being very few.
The Dline will look entirely different. I expect Graham to go to the NFL. Hes putting up big numbers, and would likely get non-stop double teams next yr with all of the losses across the line. That said, i expect the line to be:
DE - Van Bergen
DT - Martin
DT - ? Campbell plzzzz
DE - Patterson, Banks
Im hoping the DE's are good enough to allow Lalota and Roh to redshirt. Roh is only 230 lbs and needs a yr to put on size. Lalota is very raw and new to football and needs the yr to develope.
Overall, our defense has been a huge disappointment this season. It seems like were allowing 500+ yards per game. I think the only thing saving us is Mesko laying down some sick punts. Our DLine was supposed to be dominant, but other than graham, theyve been neutralized by quick passing. The LB's and Safeties hopefully will improve with some experience. Pray that Warren returns to good form next yr, and that our DB's coach teaches his kids to tackle.
My guess would be a 6-6 record. Bottom line, until the Oline improves, we will not win games. McGuffie needs open field, and Threet/Forcier needs time to find open recieves.
October 27th, 2008 at 2:16 AM ^
Minor hasn't fumbled the last two games and McGuffie has fumbled once in both. As long as Minor keeps from fumbling or at least holds them to a minimum, he will be the starter as long as he is here. McGuffie needs another 20 lbs of muscle at least and that will help him break tackles.
I have noticed that our OLine has been gelling a little bit lately. Look at the Threet run that Brian broke down in the PSU game. They aren't doing it every play, but a decent OLine is starting to develop and I would imagine most of them will remain next year. Oneal might be able to work his way in there, but at LT, he will have to be pretty good. We don't need any more blind-side blitzes for the ball to get stripped. I could see them maybe moving Schilling to LT and having Oneal at RT.
Honestly, saying that Harrison is our best safety is not saying much. Keep in mind that we have several freshman that were redshirted this year who may be able to make starts next year. Our LBs will hopefully have improved, which should help relieve the safeties of some run protection duties so they can focus on pass protection again. Also with DWar and Booboo playing CB, we may have decent pass protection where we don't leave guys wide open.
I have to disagree with you about Graham. With the rest of the line leaving, that leaves him a good chance at getting sacks and tackles to pad his numbers. You also forgot to account for Butler moving to DE. Martin had a pretty good game against MSU and I could definitely see him help anchor the right side of the DLine, opposite of Graham. You may also see Kates/Sagesse in because of their experience/conditioning with a hint of Campbell, much like they did with Martin this year. If he is all that he is cracked up to be, then maybe I am wrong and he will start.
AFAIK, they haven't picked any OOC games for next year and they will probably pick two especially bad teams instead of a Utah team that will probably go 12-0 or 11-1, a two time DI-AA championship team, or a BCS team. If we minimize our turnovers, expect to beat those teams and ND and be 4-0 going into the Big10. Indiana 5-0, MSU 6-0. Unfortunately, Shonn Greene will be a senior, Juice Williams will be a senior, Beanie Wells will be a senior, all three Wisco RBs come back, Daryll Clark and Royster will be back. The second half of our season will be no cake walk, but I think the system should be clicking with a lot of built up confidence when reaching the big games. I don't expect to get more than a 3-3 record there, but I can't imagine that we don't pull out some wins. Any way, 9-3, 8-4, or even 7-5 should be enough to get us to at least the Alamo bowl.
Also, don't forget about Beaver. There is nothing that says that he won't be deemed a Saint by the end of next year. With the way that Threet has been improving, I see him as the starter next year, but who knows, its a whole new race next year.
October 27th, 2008 at 11:05 AM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 2:30 PM ^
Well that was the main reason that I said if we minimize our turnovers. Without turnovers by either team, we easily dominated the Irish. The Irish had 21 points off of our turnovers and we lost 14 points to a fumble and an interception in the redzone. I still see us as a better team, also returning almost all of our players (only losing 5 on defense), and playing with homefield advantage.
October 27th, 2008 at 1:56 PM ^
I dont see why having the Dline gone would help pad Grahams stats...its not like anyone else on the line is stealing his sacks by getting there before him. With Taylor and Jaminson gone, hes going to see double teams on every play.
And i didnt forget about butler. Helmuth has requested to move to DE also. But the fact that they are D1 athletes doesnt mean that the will magically turn into D1 caliber defensive ends. Until there names appear on an official depth chart, Im going to assume that they will be banished to special teams.
Im not so sure that many of the current redshirt freshman will take over a starting spot next yr. You have to assume that if this were anticipated, Rich Rod would not have redshirted the players, as to get them some experience, so that they would be able to start in 2009. The fact that they are redshirted says to me that they will likely see limited action in 2009 and perhaps start by the end of the season, or in 2010.
I think the only freshman shoe-ins to takeover starting jobs (that they do not currently hold) will be Martin and Fitzgerald. I hope one of the OT's has proven himself enough to takeover at LT. Maybe Smith will get a shot at safety, but i doubt he starts due to lack of experience.