Playoff seeding hypotheticals
November 26th, 2022 at 8:58 PM ^
That’s absurd. Georgia didn’t do anything less than their best against Alabama, they just got psyched out and changed their game plan away from normal too much. That conspiracy theory doesn’t even make sense - why wouldn’t they care about getting an SEC championship ring?
November 26th, 2022 at 9:06 PM ^
Stop. That's absurd and doesn't even make sense. Georgia didn't lose the SEC Championship game on purpose.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^
Georgia is not dropping past 3 even if they lose the SEC title game. Every other 1 loss team has significantly worse resume. Same is probably true with Michigan. At this point M and UGA are both all but guaranteed spots even if they lose their respective title games. That would be absolute chaos then for the other 2 spots. TCU wins out and they're in. Number 4 comes down to a bunch of people yelling about whose one or two losses look the best. Barring some crazy conference title game shenanigans; USC with a one or two loss PAC 12 title, LSU with a two loss SEC title, and OSU (ugh) would probably have the best cases.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
I said Georgia as 4 because it means LSU won and they Are not going to match up two SEC teams in the semi finals. If USC and TCU win out and Georgia loses, there will be chaos and who knows who will be in. UM and Georgia are in for sure.
November 26th, 2022 at 7:03 PM ^
Even with the SEC bias it's a tough sell to put a 2 loss LSU in over any undefeated or 1 loss conference champions (especially if one of them is USC). In that case LSU likely ends up being just like the 2016 Penn State team that won the conference but had to "settle" for the Rose Bowl.
November 26th, 2022 at 9:49 PM ^
Agree about not having an SEC rematch in the first round, but it would be UGA at 3 and LSU at 4.
November 26th, 2022 at 7:08 PM ^
I will say this because it bears on Ohio State's loss today. If the committee votes the Buckeyes outside the top 4, it will have a hard time adjudicating the final four if LSU upsets Georgia next week and everyone else wins. The thinking has been that LSU could save itself in the conference championship while Georgia would survive, putting two SEC schools in the playoff.
If it puts the Buckeyes No. 5 and ranks USC No. 4, the Buckeye have two shots of making the playoffs next weekend.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^
Beat Purdue.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
This.
Just this.
Another week, another win.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^
If USC loses tonight, I would probably see OSU slipping to No. 4 even though the Buckeyes should be out of the playoff picture having lost by three TD's at home. Still this committee likes to prop up preaseason favorites and conferences.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:34 PM ^
The committee will put two BigTen teams in? Seems unlikely.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:37 PM ^
Well, because of how OSU lost, there will be a push for Bama to make it there, however unfair it is. It will all be up in the air. Let us hope for less chaos so OSU is off the playoff. They lost in an embarrassing manner to their rival who was missing their top scorer. OSU does not deserve to be in the playoff.
November 26th, 2022 at 9:10 PM ^
Almost NO chance Bama at 2 losses without division title or SEC title can get in.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^
LSU lost by 4 TDs at home and it doesn't seem to have done their ranking much harm.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
That loss was not recent. I remember an OSU team making it in over PSU with a loss earlier in the year. For this situation to even play out LSU would have to beat #1 team, which will override their losses.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
TCU and USC still have chances to trip up and lose, if either does then there's a reasonable chance of a second B1G team entering the playoff. I think it could easily be Michigan and Georgia, plus 2 of either TCU, OSU, or USC.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
I live in Phoenix and just booked a hotel room in Glendale just in case. I don’t want to sit in traffic trying to get home on New Years Eve.
About a week ago I told my mom I was coming home to Michigan for New Years. Sorry mom.
Go Blue!!
November 26th, 2022 at 7:45 PM ^
Is the Fiesta Bowl guaranteed to be #2 vs #3? I searched and couldn't find it.
November 26th, 2022 at 10:04 PM ^
Just assuming on my part. I will just cancel the reservation if Michigan isn’t playing in it.
My mom will be happy if that happens.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
Maybe we should take care of business in Indy first? It is possible for us to still get into the playoffs with one loss?
November 26th, 2022 at 6:32 PM ^
Yes, but yes.
Too many two loss teams. Hard to imagine us falling below a 2 loss team and they can't have OSU leapfrog us while they are at home icing their wounds.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
Barring a 40-point loss that sees multiple major contributors get hurt, Michigan is in even with a loss next week.
November 26th, 2022 at 7:07 PM ^
If we lose to Purdue, ESPN claims we still have an 82% chance of making the playoffs and 538 says 74%.
November 26th, 2022 at 7:08 PM ^
BTW, ESPN still thinks OSU sneaks in, but there is no button for getting embarrassed at home by a team with injuries.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
I think Alabama sneaks in as #4 assuming Georgia beats LSU next weekend.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
This would be absolute horseshit, but you're probably right.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:47 PM ^
As much as I dont want OSU to still make it, they would deserve it vs a non division winner that lost to LSU. Alabama has zero chance. Zero.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
I hope I am wrong, but Alabama is currently #7.
I think USC loses 1 of its last to 2 games, now Bama is #6.
I think LSU loses to Georgia for their 3rd loss, now Bama is #5.
OSU got spanked at home. Now Bama is #4.
No one behind them is likely to leapfrog them.
November 26th, 2022 at 9:20 PM ^
No. It matters which game USC would lose. As I type this, they are leading ND by 10 and even if they lose this game, they would still get in over Bama if they win next week and have a conference championship. It's not even a question.
November 26th, 2022 at 9:18 PM ^
Chance of that happening is close to ZERO.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:31 PM ^
It's USC's spot to lose at this point for number 4 right? Only other option is LSU beating Georgia in the SEC Champ game. I can't imagine OSU getting in after getting ass whipped at home today.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:38 PM ^
Not even if USC loses one of the next two?
November 26th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
Not if it is tonight. Only next week really matters in this case as they would be a 2 loss conference champion.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:38 PM ^
USC will have to play both ND and Oregon. I think they lose 1, but if they don't they'll leap frog a 2 loss SEC team I'd guess unless it is an LSU SEC champion.
November 26th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
They may be playing Utah if Washington beats WSU tonight.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:31 PM ^
I would rather have TCU than anyone who has a realistic chance of being #4. So rooting for TCU the rest of the way until we play them.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:37 PM ^
That's basically where I am as well. I want the frogs.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
Agree. Beat Purdue.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:37 PM ^
The only way this doesn't happen is if the committee decides to shovel in another SEC team, then they'll either make Mich 1 and Bama/LSU 4 or (more likely) Bama/LSU 3 over TCU and Mich 2.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:39 PM ^
That's my concern. When they don't want rematch of conference teams. Why penalize either undefeated UofM or TCU just so two SEC teams don't have to rematch?
November 26th, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^
That's easily fixed. If they don't want a rematch don't put two SEC teams in.
And I honestly think that's what they'll do. LSU has to beat Georgia to get in, and then they'll put Michigan 1 and there'll be no rematch. If LSU loses, the last two spots go to TCU, USC, OSU in that order with each dropping down with a loss.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:43 PM ^
Bama is still in the conversation?!?!
November 26th, 2022 at 8:30 PM ^
Depends on which network you work for.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:37 PM ^
TCU has to win.
If they lose, they'll drop to #4 behind USC.
Where it gets interesting is if TCU loses in the Big XII Championship Game. And USC also loses in the Pac-12 Championship Game (and Georgia beats LSU).
You have 2 spots. Who do they go to? I'd assume TCU still gets one...OSU get the other? Who is #3 and who is #4?
November 26th, 2022 at 6:44 PM ^
Rank this hypothetical.
- 13-0 Georgia, SEC Champions.
- 13-0 Michigan, B1G Champions.
- 12-1 TCU (3 point loss in Big XII Championship).
- 11-2 USC (7 point loss in Pac-12 Championship).
- 11-1 OSU.
- 10-3 LSU.
- 10-2 Alabama.
- 10-2 Tennessee.
- 11-2 Clemson, ACC Champion (1 point win in ACC Championship).
- 10-2 Penn St.
- 11-2 Oregon, Pac-12 Champions (7 point win in Pac-12 Championship).
- 10-3 Kansas St. (3 point win in Big XII Championship).
- 10-2 Washington.
November 26th, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
That would be a complete mess for the committee to work out, lol
November 26th, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
It would make the selection show interesting 😁.
November 26th, 2022 at 7:00 PM ^
You'll find yourself choosing 2 of TCU-OSU-USC. Likely OSU & TCU.
November 26th, 2022 at 7:02 PM ^
Better not put OSU #3, lol
Actually do it. Beat em again!
November 26th, 2022 at 7:02 PM ^
Penn State is better than Clemson