Pickin' and Grinnin' - NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

Submitted by XM - Mt 1822 on January 21st, 2023 at 8:34 AM

Mates,

There will be no talk of computer hacking, terminated Co-OC's, flailing hoops or hockey programs or recruiting angst.  Nope, none of that. Simply some NFL playoff talk here.   4 games on tap, two today and two tomorrow.   Unlike last week's Wildcard round, all the home teams are favored.  You know the routine, pick the games with the points, giving or taking them.  For instance, the Chiefs are favored by 9 over Jax.  Do you take the Chiefs to win by more than 9, or do you take Jax to lose by less than 9 (or win it outright)?  Here goes:

Saturday

@K.C.                     9                  Jax               4:30 on NBC

@ Philly                   7.5              NY Giants     8:15 on FOX

I think some folks are trying to make the case that the Giants are improved and might give Philly a tougher game today despite losing to them twice in the regular season.  Not so sure about that, especially if the extra week off has given Hurts time to heal up more.  

Sunday

@Buffalo                 5.5               Cincy           3:00 on CBS

@ S. F. 49'ers          4                 Dallas           6:30 on FOX

Both of these Sunday games look intriguing.  I guess I'm rooting for the Bills and the 49'ers, but without the Lions in the playoffs (WUNY = Wait Until Next Year) I just want to see good football and of course that the players have fun.  And have orange slices at half time.  

Happy Weekend,

XM 

 

MGoBoard
Football

1VaBlue1

January 21st, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^

I suspect the four home teams are going to win quite easily.  Of course, I also thought Jax would lose last weekend and the Buffalo would cruise to an easy W.  So my opinion is apparently worthless...  Lets just get some good football because I'm already suffering from withdrawal symptoms without the college version.

Joined: 01/31/2016

MGoPoints: 127087

DoubleB

January 21st, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^

KC-Jax--Don't see how Jax wins (bad secondary vs. Mahomes), but KC tends to keep bad teams around. I'll still take KC -9

Philly-NYG--I think you're underestimating the Hurts injury. NYG +7.5

Buffalo-Cincy--Line feels high to me. Cincy +5.5

SF-Dallas--The 49ers are the most physical team in the league and nobody talks about it. SF -4

 

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7470

outsidethebox

January 21st, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^

Snow. You didn't ban snow and I want to know about snow. How much you got up there??? Here in the middle of godforsaken Kansas they are saying we could get an inch today-and folks are all in a panic. The roads are pre-salted and the winter storm warnings are non-stop. We are paralyzed with fear. What should we do?????????????

K.C., Giants, Bills and 49'ers are who I am hoping to move on. 

 

Joined: 01/23/2017

MGoPoints: 18816

XM - Mt 1822

January 21st, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^

total snow so far has been a little more than 5'.  but, it has been weird b/c a lot of it came in two big wallops before thanksgiving and Christmas, respectively, and b/c we've had enough non-snow days that lots of it melted.  they closed the schools up north on thursday and it was the weakest closing i ever remember.  maybe 5" of heavy, wet snow, but not a big deal.  you'd think we'd moved to SEC country. 

i love a good snow in the winter.  no such forecast for at least the next week.  

i agree with your picks.  as i think about it, i think the giants are going to give philly a game, or at least beat the pt. spread. 

Joined: 12/21/2011

MGoPoints: 103401

Team 101

January 21st, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^

KC - Jax -- KC will win and cover the spread

Philly - NYG -- I will take the points but think Philly will advance

Buffalo - Cincy -- I will take the points but think Buffalo will advance

SF - Dallas -- 49ers will win and cover the spread

Lions to the Super Bowl vs. Chiefs

Joined: 04/15/2013

MGoPoints: 38037

pinkfloyd2000

January 21st, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^

Ah…if the Bengals were fully healthy on their OL, I’d feel pretty good about their chances in Buffalo tomorrow. Buffalo, of course, is dealing with their own injuries, but I think Cincinnati’s are much more significant. Joey B is gonna have zero time back there. 

Side note: given injuries to the Bengal secondary, Dax Hill is probably going to get some significant PT on Sunday. His last game vs the Ravens was an absolute disaster. Hopefully he can get some measure of redemption. It would sure be nice to see him come up with a game-changing interception or PB or something like that. 
 

 

Joined: 01/27/2009

MGoPoints: 18471

Durham Blue

January 21st, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^

I have bets on one game so far:

Jacksonville +9.5

Over 53

Single bets, parlay & 6 point teaser

For the other games I am leaning Eagles -7.5, Cincinnati +5.5 and SF -4.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30029

XM - Mt 1822

January 21st, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^

DB, for those of us who are just fans, not actual bettors, can you tell me (us) what this means:

"Jacksonville +9.5

Over 53

Single bets, parlay & 6 point teaser"

my guess is that you bet $X on jax to cover the spread, and $Y on the over 53 pt total.  but how does the parlay work, and what do you have to do to get 6 pt teaser.  also, though i think that means you in effect bought 6 pts you can use any way you want to try to make either/any/all bets 'right', can you tell us how that works? 

Joined: 12/21/2011

MGoPoints: 103401

Durham Blue

January 21st, 2023 at 2:22 PM ^

Hey XM.  Sure!

Correct, I put individual (single) bets on Jacksonville plus 9.5 points and over 53 points.

And then I parlayed both of those bets.  So I have to win BOTH bets to win the parlay.  Parlays have higher payouts than single bets because of the all or nothing requirement.  If I have 8 bets on a parlay then I have to win all 8 to win the bet.  If I lose one, I lose the whole ticket.

I also took a 6 point teaser.  So I get 6 points added to the spread or over/under in my favor.  A 6-point teaser on Jax +9.5 means I get Jax +15.5.  And a 6-point teaser on over 53 means the over number becomes 47.  So in the 6-point teaser I have Jax +15.5 and over 47.  Again, like the parlay, I need to win both to win the ticket.  Lose just one of them, then it's a lost ticket.  A teaser does not pay as well as a parlay.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30029

XM - Mt 1822

January 21st, 2023 at 3:05 PM ^

okay, getting closer to understanding.  let's say you bet $10 on each bet, it would be as follows:

1.  $10 (to win $9) for jax to cover the 9.5 spread

2.  $10 for the teams to combine for 53+ points.

3.  $10 for both of the above bets, on one card, so to speak, your parlay.  payout would be $_______?

$ 10 for both of the jax and over bets, but with the better odds of having 6 pts added to your favor on both.  payout would be $______?

Joined: 12/21/2011

MGoPoints: 103401

Durham Blue

January 21st, 2023 at 11:35 PM ^

1.  On the Bovada betting site, the odds just before the start of the game were -115 for Jax +9.5.  This means that a $10 bet paid $8.70.  So you get your original $10 bet back, plus $8.70 profit.

2.  The game total was 47 points so I lost my over 53 bet.

3.  I don't recall exactly what the parlay paid but I think it was about +250.  So a $10 parlay would've netted $25.  If I won the parlay I would've been paid my original $10 wager PLUS the $25 profit.  But alas, it didn't pan out.

4.  And I don't recall the teaser payout but I think it was -110.  So a $10 bet would've netted $9.10.  Same as before, you get the $10 original wager back plus the $9.10 profit.  But since I pushed on one of the two bets, the entire ticket is a push and I get my original $10 wager back with no profit.

This calculator is pretty nice for figuring out the payout given odds and wager amount.  It will also calculate parlays.  https://www.betus.com.pa/odds-calculator/

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30029

Durham Blue

January 21st, 2023 at 11:48 PM ^

Correct on all counts.  And it's good you questioned pushing on the teaser.  I mistakenly thought there was still some profit even though one of the two bets was a push but that was not the case.  I guess the whole ticket is a push with the push on the over bet.  I received my original wager back.  My net was I approximately broke even on the Jacksonville - KC game.

I did better on the Eagles - Giants game.  I had Philly -8 and under 48 single bets.  I also had a parlay and 6 point teaser.  Won them all.  So for the day I am ahead of the game.  But tomorrow's a new day.  Hopefully I can profit again but sports betting tends to be a fickle b**ch.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30029

XM - Mt 1822

January 22nd, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^

more questions, and thank you for indulging and educating me.  

first:  i get that a designation of -115 or + 170  means someone is the fav and the dog, but numerically, what does that mean to our mythical $10 wager?    how would you describe it numerically, meaning, is 'your winnings would be 115 divided by 100' or '170 divided by 100' or what? 

second:  whether you put any money out today, what would be (or is) your picks today? 

thanks again. 

Joined: 12/21/2011

MGoPoints: 103401

Durham Blue

January 22nd, 2023 at 10:43 PM ^

-115 means bet $115 to win $100 (payout is less than what you wager; this is the "favorite").  And +170 means bet $100 to win $170 (payout is more than the wager; this is the "underdog").  It's based on $100 whether it's on the + or - side.  For a $10 bet on -115 odds the payout is $8.70 (115/100 = 10/x; x = $8.70).  For a $10 bet on +170 odds the payout is $17.00 (100/170 = 10/x; x = $17.00).  Try the link I provided a few posts up.  It's a bet calculator that tells you exactly the payout given the odds and the amount wagered.  It'll even give you payouts of parlays if you provide the odds for each team on the ticket and the amount wagered on the parlay.

I stupidly went against my lean from yesterday and took Buffalo -6.  Lost that one.  But then I went with my 49ers -4 pick and won that one.  So I would've about broke even but I also had Michigan -12.5 which was a colossal homer and dumb bet.  So I am down a little bit today.

Bit of advice - go with your first instinct on bets.  If I did that I would've won both NFL bets today.  But Michigan WAS my first instinct so that was a losing proposition no matter what.

And BTW, it's comical to me that the odds math is based on $100 wagers.  In my approximately 20 years of sports betting I have probably placed $100 or higher wagers maybe 10 times.  I do this for fun and if I am nervous placing a bet due to the wager amount then it ceases to be fun for me.  Besides, I work too hard to piss my family's future away on gambling.  So my other bit of advice is to keep the wager amounts at a level that they are comfortable for your lifestyle.  You'll have a lot more fun with sports betting if you do this.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30029

Grampy

January 21st, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^

This is easy until it isn’t

- take KC, give the points

- take the Giants and the points

- take the Bengals and the points

- take the 49ers, lay the points. 
 

-Profit!

Joined: 06/29/2012

MGoPoints: 24146

Killer Khakis

January 21st, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^

Burrow and my Bengals match up well against Buffalo (a team that can't block vs a team that can't pass rush). My predictions:

KC beats spread, wins 31-17 over JAX

NYG covers spread, but loses to Philly 27-21

Bengals beat spread and the Bills in Buffalo 31-28

Niners beat the spread and beat the Cowboys 34-27

Joined: 12/03/2015

MGoPoints: 5041

ESNY

January 21st, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^

I think KC covers and Phi wins but doesn’t cover. Giants got blown out in first game and played the 2nd game pretty close despite having nothing to play for (pHI was playing for #1 seed) and sat their two best offensive starters and were down a few defensive players who are now back.

Joined: 11/06/2008

MGoPoints: 12310

rob f

January 22nd, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^

Hoping to see a great game this afternoon between the Bills and Bengals (Go Buffalo, can't root for any team in oh-no!), followed by total annihilation of the CowPlops.

Joined: 11/11/2010

MGoPoints: 194826