Phil Steele B1G Trends for 2019
3 trends that Phil Steele mentioned in his magazine and 2 predictions.
1. Teams that lost 34 starts or more to injury the previous year win 57% more games the next year. This applies to Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin.
2. Teams that lost 3 close games in a season win the same or more the following season 79% of the time. Applies to Nebraska & Rutgers.
3. Teams with 4 or more close WINS in a season, win the same or FEWER 84% of the time. This applies to Ohio State (and Notre Dame).
4. He predicts an 81% chance Indiana and Nebraska improve because of SOS.
5. He predicts an 85% chance that Ohio State and Wisconsin decline because of SOS.
BPONE suggests this will be the year he is wrong of course.
I’ll stream myself cutting my toenails with a rusty knife if Michigan State (or Wisconsin) wins 10 regular season games this year.
While also eating lemons?
If that’s what you want, pervert.
I personally prefer Squat Cobbler.
I'll cut lemons with a rusty knife if this MSU wins 10 games, I know, real aggressive.
Speaking of this, I went back the other day and watched the video of me eating the lemon for that now famous / infamous board challenge, and it is.....painful to think that I was able to eat that lemon down to the seeds inside about 2 minutes.
Memories.....misty water color memories of the way we were.....
i thought i was the uglier half of the world's most disproportionately hot couple but i see i am wrong. congrats sir.
I think we have a winner in the "best left-handed compliment" category.
True story about my wife. She has retinal lesions which create a pretty big blind spot in the center of her vision (peripheral is fine). When we were dating one of my friends asked me "is she blind?" when they met her. My response was "yeah....she kinda is"
But I keep telling her I'm handsome as hell so it's all good.
Saul Good...man
Make sure you don't botch it. Botched toe is the worst.
Where's Dr Mantis Tobogan when we need him?
Multiple places in this very thread.
Who said that!?
Reveal yourself!
Do you remember who the key injuries for MSU were? From my memory
Scott 5 games to start year
Davis 6 games to end year.
Lewerke 3 games
So that's 20+ games they are counting in that OL shuffle or are they counting LJ Scott missing the whole year which is kind of a joke if they did.
Cody White was a huge injury for them. Even when he was dressed he wasn’t himself for a while, so games missed doesn’t really do the impact of his injury justice. I thought he was a better player than Davis when healthy.
He was a big loss last year, no doubt. I thought Davis was better, and the MSU staff had them as their #1. Davis graduated though, and White will replace him. So at that position they'll effectively perform the same as they did injured last year. White could be marginally better or worse, but they're not going back to a line up that includes both Davis and White. A WR could develop certainly, but there's no "rebound" there, per what Steele's metrics are observing.
The point on the OL the poster makes is correct in my mind. Chewins was out for a few games, so if he's back for 100% they'll be better. But no one else really matters - the two deep is all interchangeable guys that are terrible at run blocking and good at pass pro.
MSU could win 10 games. If Wisc is as bad as suspected, and Penn St takes a dip, the only games they could really be in trouble in is OSU and Michigan, They will be favored in ever other game. Tulsa, WMU, ASU, Northwestern, Indiana, Wiscy, PSU @ home, Illinois, Rutgers, and Maryland.
I’ve got them at 7-5. 10 would take insane luck. I would say their win probabilities for the following games are:
at OSU - 5%
at Michigan - 7%
at Wisconsin - 35%
at Northwestern - 40%
Penn State - 45%
Arizona State - 60%
Indiana - 65%
Maryland - 75%
That’s 4.7 expected losses. I have them losing the first five games I listed, but even if they beat a Penn State, it wouldn’t surprise me if they drop an Indiana or a Maryland. I really think their ceiling is 8-4 this year. They just have such garbage on offense that they won’t be able to get to 20 points in many, if not most games. Last year, they failed to get 20 points in 7 games, and were under 25 in 3 other games. Their defense is not that elite (and it is very good up front, no doubt) to make up for complete mediocrity at QB, OL, and RB.
At OSU 20% and at UofM 29%.
Does NW have the 5* transfer QB now? MSU always has trouble with the Wildcats, seems as tho that % could be higher
Yes. Hunter Johnson. Game is in Evanston, which we all know houses the Orb of Confusion. Nobody plays well there.
They will win at least 9, and 10 is a real possibility. When was the last time there defense was bad? They have never been a great offense. They year the won the B1G they were ranked 60th nationally.
Want to bet on that win mark? I don’t like gambling, but I am confident enough here to offer.
There’s a huge difference between supplementing an elite defense with an average offense and an abysmal one. They were 112th in S&P offense last year. Dantonio has won 9 or more games 7 times at MSU. In those seasons, his average S&P Offense rank is 42nd. The worst offense they fielded in those 7 seasons was 2017’s, which finished 72nd. That team was incredibly lucky, and won exactly 9 in the regular season. They would need to improve 40 spots in S&P this year - without any influx of talent or change in coaching/scheme - to match that team’s offense. I just don’t see any way that comes to fruition.
$20 Venmo bet? I pay you if Michigan State wins at least 9 of their regular season (first 12) games. You pay me if they win 8 or fewer of their regular season (first 12) games.
Didn't they hire a new offensive coordinator? I'm not necessarily saying they'll win 10 games, but I feel like 8 or 9 is about right for them, and I wouldn't be shocked if they won 10.
They did not hire or fire any coaches. They took all of their existing coaches and changed their titles/responsibilities. Their OC from last year is now their QB Coach but it is all the same people on staff.
Shuffling the deck chairs on the titanic
Look up how many OCs Dantonio has had in his entire career. I think it's like 4 total, 3 of which were employed by MSU last season and the one from his Cincy days was coaching DBs.
I hate that I might have to actually root for them to win games, but I believe 8 games is their low water mark, and 9 is a real possibility, so yeah let's do it.
Hell yes, it’s on.
Dontino is as much of a good coach, as he is a prick. Its a shame how one negates the other... but as much as I want to agree with your predictions, I would give him the win over Wisconsin and Northwestern... only losses I see are to us and to OSU, and one of PSU/ASU.
Mantis, I learned a long time ago to not ever underestimate MSU's ability to pull a rabbit out of its ass in any given year, because that's just what they do. True, their offense is not very good, but they have the uncanny ability to drag higher-ranked and more athletically gifted teams down into the dirt with them, and make that team beat MSU on its own terms: through ugly, defensive sludgefarts of games. MSU has thrived for years off of beating better teams based on incredibly strong defense, meh to "just good enough" offense, and then the real kicker, one or two big plays per game that they are able to force and turn the whole momentum of the game.
Sure, they could go 7-5, but I could also see them go 10-2. This just feels like it'll be some kind of bounceback year for them. As long as Dantonio is there, I am not counting them out.
MSU defense especially the front 7 is going to be really good. They were 2nd in the country against the run and they return just about everybody on the DL.
The offense is the biggest issue. If they have competent QB play, they could surprise
Agree. They might have the best front 7 in the B1G. Their offense, on the other hand...…...
Agree. They might have the best front 7 in the B1G. Their offense, on the other hand...…...
With the number of veterans they are going to lose after the season plus their anemic (even for MSU) recruiting they better have a bounce back year if they want to stay remotely relevant.
Every time I count MSU out they win 9+ games. So im going to go all in on them and say they will absolutely win at least 10 games this season.
They didn't lose a lot. The whole oline is back, the front 7 is back on defense, with a starting safety and corner. They have their RB's and two receivers from last year. If Lewerke can just be competent they can win every game they will be favored in.
This may all be true in an abstract sense, but it's ignoring the fact that MSU will completely ignore half of their schedule in prep for UM. This will lose them 1-2 games they're favored in. Then, if UM beats them, they will collapse into a fiery heap as they do.
So, predicting 10 wins, or even 9, for MSU is essentially predicting they will beat Michigan. I can't get on board with that.
What MSU team have you been watching the past 10 years? They no longer look past other teams before or after the Michigan game.
This isn't true. They lost:
- Andrew Dowell, who was a very good LB for them (97 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 9 pass break-ups)
- Khari Willis, their best safety (84 tackles, 2 int, 10 pass break-ups)
- Justin Layne, their best corner (72 tackles, 1 int, 15 pass breaks)
- Racist John Reschke (33 tackles, 6 TFL, .5 sack)
That's the #2, #3, #5, and #8 tacklers on the team. They return a good amount, but replacing the above will be difficult. No guarantee their defense will be as good this year.
Lewerke isn't that bad. They seem to pull OL out of nowhere. No matter what, they always have a couple of WRs. It wouldn't shock me if they just started winning with a bunch of guys you never knew existed.
Lewerke isn’t that bad.
False.
13/20 3 tds 14 carries for 73 yards in a 30 point win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl.
Which is better than any Michigan QB has performed in a bowl game since 2015.
And then went 22/40 for 172 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT with 16 rushes for 63 yards in a one-point loss (7-6) to Oregon in last season's Redbox Bowl.
Lewerke may not be as bad as he showed in 2018 but I also don't think he's as good as his 2017 stats indicate.
Washington State lost 5 key starters shortly before the bowl game. They were beat before they got on the field. The win counts but there are no bragging rights from that one.
"They seem to pull OL out of nowhere."
Those days are long gone. Their OL has been bad for several years now. Atrocious at running the ball, but decent in pass pro.
"...but decent in holding." FTFY
I think Wisconsin can hit 10 wins, with losses only to Michigan and OSU, but I'm assuming last year was an anomaly rather than a harbinger of things to come under Chryst.
Which is a bad assumption, based on what I’ve watched. Chryst is an awful coach, and they’ve become too one dimensional to be effective against teams with pulses. Their QB situation may actually be worse this year, and there aren’t any playmakers on offense outside of Taylor. The defense might tick up a tad, but even that I am not sure of. I have Wisconsin at 6-6. I could see them winning more, but I could also see them missing a bowl. They’re pretty clearly on a different trajectory than Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska in their division, they’re already behind Northwestern, and they get us and OSU as crossovers, and open the season in Tampa against USF. This Wisconsin team could win 7, but could lose 7 too. I don’t see 9 wins on their schedule.