Phil Steele B1G Trends for 2019
3 trends that Phil Steele mentioned in his magazine and 2 predictions.
1. Teams that lost 34 starts or more to injury the previous year win 57% more games the next year. This applies to Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin.
2. Teams that lost 3 close games in a season win the same or more the following season 79% of the time. Applies to Nebraska & Rutgers.
3. Teams with 4 or more close WINS in a season, win the same or FEWER 84% of the time. This applies to Ohio State (and Notre Dame).
4. He predicts an 81% chance Indiana and Nebraska improve because of SOS.
5. He predicts an 85% chance that Ohio State and Wisconsin decline because of SOS.
BPONE suggests this will be the year he is wrong of course.
I understand that MSU was hit hard by the injury bug in 2018, but nobody seems to be accounting for their decline in recruiting. Their average class from 2014-'16 was ranked 22nd; that has fallen to 32nd from 2017-'19. They're significantly less likely to land quality four-star targets that they became accustomed to poaching during their run over M, and it's one of the main reasons why 9 wins has become their new hard cap.
You also can't expect all those injured players to come back at full strength. They're bleeding talent and returning previously-injured starters.... I just can't see them competing with the top-tier B1G teams any longer.
All of this is completely accurate with regards to their offense, and even that may be generous. The defensive side of the ball is another story. They've go some kids who can play, and recruiting on that side of the ball has been good. They will remain a top 4 B1G team on defense as long at Mork is there.
Mostly, yes; but they even have holes on defense in comparison to their past units, largely because their overall athleticism has dipped. Josiah Scott, for example, ran a 4.83 at his Nike recruiting combine but is considered their "shutdown" corner. He's a shutdown corner in the same vein as Watson.
Scheme and above average [defensive] recruiting will keep them afloat, but I'm willing to bet their defensive rankings will slowly decline as well.
Man there is a lot of DISRESPEKT here itt.
Sparty will be annoyingly competent at being who they are and they'll win a bunch of hard fought, relatively low scoring games. Just as long as they lose to Michigan, other losses are nothing but gravy.
Moving on... I like to think OSU will trend down in the win column. Simply because the Blue is Due! The offense is poised and if hunger ever effected momentum, desire is going to be overwhelmingly with Michigan. Given an offensive scheme that sets receiver talent loose, OSU is due for a beating.