Phil Steele B1G Trends for 2019
3 trends that Phil Steele mentioned in his magazine and 2 predictions.
1. Teams that lost 34 starts or more to injury the previous year win 57% more games the next year. This applies to Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin.
2. Teams that lost 3 close games in a season win the same or more the following season 79% of the time. Applies to Nebraska & Rutgers.
3. Teams with 4 or more close WINS in a season, win the same or FEWER 84% of the time. This applies to Ohio State (and Notre Dame).
4. He predicts an 81% chance Indiana and Nebraska improve because of SOS.
5. He predicts an 85% chance that Ohio State and Wisconsin decline because of SOS.
BPONE suggests this will be the year he is wrong of course.
Yes to Chryst. I will never take sparty lightly as long as Dantonio is there. He is their advantage over Wis. and Penn St.
Dantonio is 4-4 against Wisconsin, but he's got a nice 6-3 record over PSU.
My comment was meant for this year. I believe Mork is a better coach than Chryst and Franklin. And that gives sparty the advantage this year.
You just angered mork....
I have a bad feeling MSU will win 9-10 games because Mark Dantonio sacrificed some collection of woodland creatures for any number of deities.
Anyone who doubts Dantonio can somehow magic his way to 10 wins hasn't been watching him coach the last decade plus.
Is it likely, no, but if they win 10 I won't be the slightest bit surprised.
IDK, State's defense should be so strong that an average offense with average QB play could be enough for 10 wins. That's not so impossible.
Most of those seem reasonable except the first one. Win 57% more games, really?
Go from 7 wins to 11? or 8 to 12.5? or 9 to 14? That seems like a stretch.
It seems only reasonable for the bad teams - like going from 4 wins to 6 wins, 5 to 8, etc.
That's a typo, I'll edit. Should be have a 57% chance to win more games.
That makes a lot more sense. So pretty much a team like Michigan State is only half likely to be better and half likely to be the same or worse. Sounds reasonable, but also doesn't seem to be saying much.
There's a chance they could win more games but there is also a chance they win the same or less.
Could be good, could be bad, chance.
If they had scored 8 pts against Oregon, 10 vs. Nebraska, and 17 vs. ASU, they would have won 10 games LAST YEAR. Take away the injuries, and I believe they would have done that. Mork may be a jack-ass, but he's got a super defense that will be better if they don't have to spend 45 minutes a game on the field.
If Utah State could stop a very-obvious-it-is-coming series of QB option pitches, PSU defenders could intercept one of two passes thrown directly at them on the final drive, or Rutgers not been Rutger, they would have lost would have lost 8 games last year. The argument goes both ways: MSU ended up exactly where they should have.
And that defense has to replace 3 really good players and 1 decent player. Michigan/OSU/PSU recruit at a level that says good players can depart with little drop off. Not so MSU. I think they have some really good CB talent so they can replace Layne, but Dowell, Willis, and Racist John Reschke will be missed.
Utah State is a tough opponent. They have one of the better QB in the country in Jordan Love. He's a legit NFL prospect in his own right
I think Steele's metrics are pretty basic. This is just saying that historically, teams with that level of injury have won more games the next year 57% of the time. It doesn't control for any other changes to those teams.
OSU's SOS may be down this year compared to last year, which I suppose gives them less margin for error with the committee. But until proven otherwise I have a really hard time seeing them take any kind of meaningful step back.
Minus the Michigan game, all of their games that would be considered tough games are at home. MSU, PSU and Wisconsin all come to Columbus, and no tough OOC games. Nebraska on the road may be tricky, and if OSU gets upset anywhere, I'm pegging this to be it. But unless Frost has really worked some magic in Lincoln this offseason, I think they're still a year or two before the depth of his team is where it needs to be to win these kinds of games.
Won't be surprised if OSU comes into Ann Arbor at 11-0. Maaaaaybe 10-1 if they have an off-week somewhere. But they're still going to continue being the bane of our existence until proven otherwise.
With how many people talking about Nebraska upsetting OSU, I don't see how OSU overlooks them and manages to get beat. The game I'm looking at for a potential upset is on Friday, October 18 @ Northwestern. Both teams will be coming off a bye but weird Friday B1G away game could make for some wacky stuff.
Ehh we'll see. When was the last time Northwestern really won a big game? Fitzgerald runs a good program in Evanston, especially given the strict academic requirements at Northwestern, but he's never won a truly big game. OSU qualifies as a truly big game. Northwestern has mostly won the games its supposed to have won, and lost the games its supposed to have lost. Upsets have happened here and there, but no program-defining, nationally-televised, historic wins that put Northwestern on the college football map.
Also consider the fact that the game at Northwestern will essentially be a home game for OSU, with all the Chicago alums flooding in for the game. That's the same way it was for Michigan in Evanston last season. Optimistically, the crowd will be 50-50. Realistically, outside of the student section I'm calling 70-30.
OSU has lost all of two games to NW since 1969: 1971, and in 2004 when Walker was the coach. Most of the games have been lopsided in favor of the Buckeyes. If OSU turns the ball over multiple times they can lose, but if they play just an average game the talent differential is too big for NW.
Away teams overrunning Ryan field is nothing new. They will never be on the college football map and the disadvantages you mentioned will keep it that way. They did play them close (24-20 in Columbus) in 2016 and Northwestern returns over 70% of their defensive production from last year, got a talent upgrade at QB, and it's a weird Friday night. I don't expect Northwestern to win but I think it's more likely than a trip for a super-hyped matchup with Nebraska who has some pretty major holes in their roster as well.
But those aren't the games they struggled in last year...they beat Maryland by 1 and Nebraska by 5 and lost to Purdue. I think the 3 things that can bite OSU this year is the potential to play down to opponents again, QB play, and defense. Losing a first round QB and replacing him with a guy who very obviously isn't as good right now is going to hurt. And that's if Fields puts it together at all. And their defense only gave up fewer than 5 ypp vs MSU, Rutgers, and Tulane. A less dynamic offense with an average defense could be the thing that bites them. Right? Right? Please?
I think this is what Steele take is on OSU. If Fields can play equal to Haskins, his prediction will look awful. But his prediction isn't about a first year head coach, it is about an unproven QB who did not look very good in the spring game and a QB room with no depth. That is OSU's major potential weakness given a below average (for OSU) defense.
I just don't get the Nebraska hype. The schedule will be easier for them, but when did Scott Frost become Urban Meyer? They were 4-8 last year and turning around UCF didn't require a miracle. You should win 9+ a year there as a non-Power 5 program. Recruiting has improved, but nothing that makes you think that they are going to be a year-in, year-out 9-10 win contender. What am I missing?
I think the division is not great...Wisconsin is probably worse, Iowa will be Iowa, and some (I think Phil Steele) expect NW to slide although I'm not so sure. They started to put it together last year, after starting 0-6, they finished 4-2, losing by 5 to OSU and 3 to Iowa.
....'cuz they routinely outhit people!
That undefeated year at UCF worked wonders for his reputation, and for good reason. I don't care what level of football you coach at. Going undefeated is really damn hard. There's a reason that most years, you don't have any remaining undefeated D1 teams when the season is over.
The AAC is not the Big Ten, granted, but their schedule sets up about as well as it could have this coming season. All of their toughest games, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa and OSU, are in Lincoln. toughest road game is probably Colorado or Purdue, and then Nebraska gets to skip out on having to play UM, MSU or PSU. Wisconsin may not be that good this year, depending on their QB situation and the injury situation with their defense.
Nebraska played pretty well down the stretch last season, could've legitimately beaten OSU on the road, and as long as Adrian Martinez stays healthy, that offense could really do some damage this Fall. I don't think they're a playoff contender, but they could get to Indy. In my mind, it all depends on how they handle that OSU game. If they lose, do they let it get to their heads and fall apart the rest of the way? Or can they brush it off and handle an otherwise very manageable schedule? Time will tell.....
UCF has gone 12-1 or better in 3 of the last 6 seasons, each time with a different coach. Last year they may have gone 13-0 had they not lost Milton to injury late in the year. You don't have to be a great coach to win games there, not in the AAC.
I think they'll be better, but I don't think anybody penciled in 4-8 last season either. I'd like to see Frost put together more than 1 winning season before anointing him the next great one.
I'm inclined to think the same way about Brohm. I believe he's .500 over the last 2 years at Purdue? Not hardly the record of someone you think is setting the coaching world on fire.
Not anointing him the next great one, but I do still think they have a great shot to make it to Indy next year. If for no other reason than how mediocre/unknown the rest of the Western Division looks. Wisconsin should at least be decent, but with breaking in a new QB and as many injuries as they've had you never know. Purdue, Iowa, and Northwestern are good teams but all have obvious flaws and you can't realistically expect them to be truly great teams. Illinois is not leaving the cellar anytime soon.
If they were in the East, I wouldn't peg them to be any better than 7-5 to 8-4. But they're not. Its not too much of a stretch to say they could have the highest ceiling of anyone in that division.
I wondered the same thing when I saw the Vegas odds a few weeks ago... they seemed so out of place in their peers.... they must be extrapolating Frost's record in central Florida...
I'm not a believer in MSU, PSU, and Wisconsin. This season anyway. I see a group of 8-4 teams.
I'd be surprised if Ohio rolls into Ann Arbor anything less than 10-1, probably will be 11-0.
It's OSU's race to lose. I feel only UM has a chance to challenge but BPONE is strong.
Still think this could be a season when Staee totally sludge farts their way to 10 wins. They will have to have some terribly ugly wins but that is how they roll. Seems like a classic bounce back year for them. I really hope I am wrong and they finish 7-5.
This is where I'm at, fwiw. 2012 was the only year in the Dantoni era that I expected regression and actually saw it happen. If Lewerke's arm has recovered, they will be more functional. And their run defense keeps things competitive. 8-4 would be a good season, but 5-7 is possible with bad luck.
I'd like to have a fiver for every MGoBlogger prediction of MSU's downfall that didn't end up happening.
That's the thing about MSU - their seasons never make any sense at all. Last year they limped past Utah State at home in the opener. Then lost to ASU on the road. Then won a couple "normal" games against Indiana and Central Michigan. Then lost Northwestern at home by a couple scores. Then somehow mustered a win AT Penn State in a game they should have lost a couple ways. Then lost to UM, but followed that up with somewhat dominant win over Purdue, holding them to 13 points the week after the boilers blew out OSU and then beat Maryland handily. But don't look now because next they sludgefarted a 9-6 loss to Nebraska and managed to beat Rutgers 14-10 to close the season before the 7-6 loss in the bowl game to Oregon.
So are they a ten win team this year? A five win team this year? Who the hell knows. Nothing make sense when it comes to Sparty.
Except it's a regression he's talking about, not a downfall.
And you would have seen that in the year he's talking about, when they went 6-6. And again in 2016 when they went 3-9 (which is several years of regression packed into one year). And again last year, when they went 7-5.
OSU still has more talent than anyone in the league. Can't see how they're expected to drop off in what should at the very least be an Urban Wile E Coyote year for Day. It's an unknown, sure, but to assume a guy who still has all that talent on the roster and who was OC while OSU put up 92 points on us in two years will be a step back in year one is....optimistic.
Granted they've won some close games that could have gone the other way the past few years and maybe Day doesn't have Urban's deal with the devil locked in place? Seems unlikely.
Ryan Day did that with a QB who had the best passing season of a QB in B1G history. Not Justin Fields. That's my best guess. I also think a lot of media types believe that Michigan will be much better offensively under Gattis.
The wild card is Fields. OSU needs that explosive offense given the below average (for them) defense. Day has proven he can game plan, but Fields hasn't proven he can execute it ... and Fields spring game performance was awful. The wild card is Fields dual threat capability in real games and then staying healthy. That OSU QB room has no depth.
Yeah, apparently their backup lost the QB competition at Kentucky and transferred. And this Kentucky Qb is ranked 14 out of 14 SEC QBs.
The NCAA really did them a huge favor by granting Fields waiver.
and in 2017 with JT Barrett - so maaaybe he doesnt need an amazing QB to win. i agree fields is the wild card and injuries to the QB spot could be a real problem, but OSU has the talent around fields to win most of their games with him being entirely mediocre.
Wait...is your argument that JT wasn't an amazing college QB?
I think he's alluding to the fact that Haskins was MUCH better at being a QB than JT, and there felt like there was a ceiling to their offense when he was on the field...and with Haskins, all passing records were on the table. With Fields, it's possible they look more like the Barrett Buckeyes and I would prefer that over the Haskins Buckeyes.
He did have Kevin Wilson.
Of course he still has him, but excellent game plan last year wasn't entirely Day.
Does he have anything to predict number of MSU players tazered?
Thing is, you won't know until 2022 at the earliest. Red lock, baby.
I need to see your supervisor.
oh for a year where the worst thing involving an MSU football player is a tazering incident
How is osu sos tougher this year?
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