PFF Grades of Wisconsin - MSU: A look forward to next week.
Some quotes from the article: http://tinyurl.com/j2v8moy
"The area where Horninbrook was most effective was against the blitz. On 10 dropbacks facing extra rushers, Hornibrook completed 7-10 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown."
"The Badgers gained 96 yards on 21 carries to the left of center compared to 30 yards on 16 carries to the right of center."
Top defensive grades:
OLB Vince Biegel 82.6
LB Jake Cichy 82.6
CB Sojourn Shelton 80.9
LB T.J. Edwards 80.0
OLB T.J. Watt 78.5
"O’Connor was constantly under duress in the game as he dealt with pressure on 51.1 percent of his dropbacks."
"Spartan offensive line struggled as a whole against the Badger’s stunts and defensive movement."
September 26th, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^
Is to peel-back block him like Zeke Elliott did last year. Damn near decleated him. I was pissed when I caught that on the replay.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:08 AM ^
How will Brown utilize Peppers against a pro-style, run first, smashmouth scheme? We should have enogh size and capability on the D-line, but given Hornibrook is a RS Freshman, we need to dial up the pass rush and give him a case of happy feet early and often.
What's Brown's track record against pro-style teams? Calling Seth. Maybe he can run another deep dive on Brown's defense against pro-style teams. Guess we look more 4-3 this week.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:18 AM ^
I was thinking the same thing. I've been so focused on spread teams, I have no info on Brown's D versus traditional offenses. I know he used the same undersized SAM at BC (whatever his name was) -- how was that guy used against heavy running teams?
It's times like these when having a day job is quite the inconvenience.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^
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September 26th, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
They have plenty of history on how Don Brown will attack a pro-style offense.
I don't. I'm at work. Hence my curiosity.
September 26th, 2016 at 12:33 PM ^
I was referring specifically to how Michigan will use peppers, what D-Line we will roll out there, etc. given that while don brown has obviously played pro-style teams before, he hasn't done so with Peppers or D-Line as talented and versatile as this one.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:15 AM ^
win stuff?
Do we do that anymore?
/s
/maybe
September 26th, 2016 at 11:47 AM ^
their press clippings.
September 26th, 2016 at 9:41 AM ^
This game is going to tell us a lot about our o-line. I'm not super concerned about the wisconsin offense, I'm sure they will do some things but the offense put up 17 of their own points against an msu defense that was iffy as hell against the pass.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:00 AM ^
And one of their offensive TDs was a one-play drive from about the MSU 5 after the punter fumbled the snap.
***Edit: Nevermind. You must not be counting this one because I see UW scored 3 offensive TDs.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:10 AM ^
Yeah I was already taking out the possession that started inside the 5 so gave 14 points to defense/special teams/sparty doing things and the rest to the wisconsin o
September 26th, 2016 at 9:45 AM ^
run blocking than the pass protection. We must run the ball and thus run block.
Although we have given up a few sacks this year, our pass blocking has been good. Also Speight has been doing a good job stepping up into the pocket.
Go Blue!!!
September 26th, 2016 at 9:45 AM ^
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September 26th, 2016 at 10:06 AM ^
I think people on here are a little bit too overconfident.
Yes, our defense will be fine. Yes, Colorado has been better on offense than Wisconsin by a lot.
However, Wisconsin's defense is 100% the best we've played, especially its run defense (Colorado has a decent secondary, but their run defense is not very good/was gashed by a bad Colorado State team).
Our run offense is the worst part of our team, and our offense overall has been weaker than our defense for 4 years straight and 1/3 through it looks as though it will be for the 5th year in 2016.
I'm not yet convinced our offense will be able to score more than 14-17 points against Wisconsin.
Yes, our D will mostly shut them down, but in a low-scoring game turnovers can make a colossal difference and you cannot predict how they will turn out. Turnovers were the biggest advantage Wisconsin had over Sparty.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:31 AM ^
I would normally agree, however I expect we will get good field position due to our defense and special teams. Given a short field, I expect more than 17 points.
September 26th, 2016 at 11:59 AM ^
I mostly agree...mostly
I suspect we will win a (realtively) low scoring game
In order to keep this game out of reach will require no missed filed goals.On two or three trips near the red zone
September 26th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
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September 26th, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^
I'm worried about fumbles potentially more than interceptions; Speight did have a fumble-6 in Colorado.
Also, again, this will be the most pressure Speight has been under all year from a pass rush standpoint, and Wisconsin's secondary is at least as good as, if not better than, the best team we've played.
I think he'll rise to the challenge, I'm just not assured of it.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^
If they can keep Speight clean (mostly) he should be fine. In the case that Wiscy is able to hit him a few times, I worry about his accuracy and decision making at that point. Seems like a few good shots will rattle him. O line, please keep Wilton upright.
September 26th, 2016 at 12:04 PM ^
Eh, our lowest point total was 45 points so far. Even if this is a big step up in defense, who's to say we can't get to at least 28 or 31? Keep in mind our offense plays with short fields basically all game every game because of Peppers / ST and that's not going to go away this week just because Wisconsin has good linebackers.
September 26th, 2016 at 9:47 AM ^
ND lost(!) to Duke who lost to Northwestern. LSU is a tire fire (think of a whole mound of them at a car recycling center!) It really is unclear how good MSU is (not great) and how good Wisconsin is. It'll be a game but I'll take Michigan to beat the spread (-10?) The margin of victory by the Badgers over the Spartans seemed very flukey. It could have been (should have been?) much closer.
September 26th, 2016 at 9:48 AM ^
34-13 Michigan.
No sweat.
September 26th, 2016 at 11:12 AM ^
even with our struggles running the ball against teams that have decent, let alone great, D-line?
I don't see this one being so clear cut.
September 26th, 2016 at 9:48 AM ^
September 26th, 2016 at 9:57 AM ^
Why? They've beaten some big name teams but not any good teams. And because Wisconsin has beaten some big name teams, they will have our undivided attention.
Peppers gets a score on offense this week and brings the lumber on defense.
1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 FF, 1 recovery, 1 INT, 10 tackles.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:09 AM ^
Because Wisconsin's front 7 on Defense is light years better than anyone we've played (seriously not close), and our OL/running backs have been the weakest part of our team through 4 games.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:10 AM ^
Well, using your logic, I could just as easily say that UM has feasted on 3 cupcakes and one almost-cupcake, done so at home, and actually looked spotty doing so at times. We were losing, at home, to Colorado in the 3rd quarter!
Wisconsin, on the other hand, has won a game against a top 5 team at a neutral site, and won another against a top 10 team on the road. Sure, neither LSU nor MSU are ranked (or highly ranked) anymore, but that's in large part because they lost to Wisky.
Bottom line: I think Michigan wins. But I was shocked to see us a 9-point favorite yesterday, and even more shocked to see the line has moved to -10.5 this morning. My gut says this game is in doubt in the 4th quarter, and Michigan wins by 7 points or less...
September 26th, 2016 at 10:49 AM ^
what about MSU's and LSU's performances have impressed you?
Impressed by them, I am not.
We are gonna roll.
September 26th, 2016 at 11:08 AM ^
Not a thing impresses me about LSU or MSU right now. But all WIsky has done this year is won. It's not always been pretty, but they've just won. Those teams scare me. Wisky could not be more confident coming into this game. And if they get a bounce or too early, or if they can shake-up Speight with some early pressure, they will be in a place to at bare minimum keep the game close. And if they keep it close and remain confident, anything can happen late. I just don't see this as a blow-out, nor is it a game where (like vs. Colorado) we can afford to go down 21-0 early and count on a comeback.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:56 AM ^
Autzen is a tough place to play.
September 26th, 2016 at 11:16 AM ^
Or Oregon is really, really bad at defense, and not nearly as impressive on offense as they were under Kelly and Bellotti?
September 26th, 2016 at 12:27 PM ^
Oregon is bad at defense but, you have to consider Colorado beat Oregon with the QB that couldn't move the ball at all VS. Michigan.
September 26th, 2016 at 5:14 PM ^
Coming off the bench in the middle of a game that you probably took very few 1st team reps in practice for is a lot different then preparing the whole week as the starter. And Oregon had literally no usable film on what Colorado's offense would look like with Montez as the QB instead of Liufau.
September 30th, 2016 at 1:31 PM ^
Michigan didnt have any film on him either and that didn't seem to matter that much. Liufau was dressed for the game so not sure how practice went the week of the Oregon game for Montez as far as first team snaps go. Colorado is just a good offensive and Oregon is a bad defensive team.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:12 PM ^
This is how I felt before IU last year. I was really nervous then and I'm nervous now. It's not that I think they are better, but they are close enough and our weekness dont match well with their strengths. The "best" team doesnt always win.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:31 AM ^
I honestly feel better about playing Wisconsin than I would feel about a rematch with Colorado. Feels like a much more straight forward, no-nonsense fit for Michigan's defense.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:01 AM ^
that's why.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:12 AM ^
Take away the names, and the teams they beat this year are very average. And they struggled bigtime with Georgia State. This isn't exactly Alabama we are playing.
September 26th, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^
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September 26th, 2016 at 11:35 AM ^
September 26th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^
As bad luck. That's just bad execution. After that got cleaned up we were fine.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:20 PM ^
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September 26th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
September 26th, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
Not me. By year 3 of the Harbaugh regime I fully expect to have expunged the irrational fear I developed during the later Carr years and all throughout the RR/Hoke regimes. Once the first recruiting cycle become Jrs under Harbaugh, I fully expect us to rip shit up until he decides to call it a career.
September 26th, 2016 at 9:56 AM ^
September 26th, 2016 at 10:12 AM ^
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September 26th, 2016 at 10:20 AM ^
MSU got their ass kicked in each phase of the game. MSU had a bunch of garbage yards after the game was settled but otherwise couldn't do anything on offense. Even on defense Horningbrook had time to drop dimes over them all game. Wisconsin didn't have a ton of yards, but they had the luxury that they could be super conservative and often were working with short fields.
I think we'll rattle Horningbrook early and they won't be able to do anything. However, I'm not convinced we'll be able to do much from our base plays on offense. We really need Darboh and Chesson to be testing their secondary. Otherwise, we're going to become very reliant on jet sweeps, Peppers, and WR screens.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:21 AM ^
I agree with everything you said from the perspective of State's offense being dominated.
However, on the other side of the ball, 9 times out of 10 Wisconsin doesn't score more than 21 points in that game. 14 of their 30 points came directly off turnovers.
Wisconsin will probably score about 10 points (plus or minus 3) on offense this week. The question is, if we have shitty turnover luck and spot them two TDs, is our offense going to be able to score 24+ points by themselves? That's my fear.
I still think 80% Michigan wins this game and I'm okay with the spread, but this is not a shoe-in.
September 26th, 2016 at 10:45 AM ^
September 26th, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^
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