Perfect Storm.
Seeing all the vitriol that continuously being re-hashed here regarding RR's tenure. I submit the following resolution.
Let it be resolved that between the years 2008 and ending in early 2011, the Michigan football program experienced a "perfect storm" of events that ultimately led to the dismissal of the head football coach.
These events could not be foreseen, nor avoided due mostly to the complexity of the factors involved in creating them. Therefore these events cannot be blamed or attributed to any one party, event or situation. To attempt to do so is futile and requires that the attempting party ignore or minimize a variety of factors to make their "case".
Its akin to the Edmond Fitzgerald sinking. Reading literally scores of reports, books and second hand accounts of the tragic event, one can only come to the conclusion that there is no clear explanation that will put the tragedy "to bed" once and for all. Having a morbid curiosity about that particular piece of history has led me to spend a substantial amount of time researching and reviewing it, as well a collecting a substantial diary of information on it, I can say that I know only one thing for sure.
The only way that it could have been avoided for certain is this. The doomed vessel never leaves the harbor to embark on its fateful journey. Once it did so, the events that followed became history.
Lets please do the same for the health of our program and our fanbase. Let the events become history.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^
February 7th, 2011 at 12:58 PM ^
Well stats are great, but I prefer points.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:04 PM ^
more points than those team's defensive season averages as well, it wasn't just yards.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:18 PM ^
We're talking about just Iowa right? Because yeah, you're right, we smashed their average yardage and point totals. And still lost by 10.
How about Ohio State and Wisconsin? We probably managed to come close to hitting above the average for Wisky, but I can't imagine we were anywhere close to hitting OSU's average point's allowed total.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:43 PM ^
because of this statement:
Our offense under RR didn't do what was needed to really compete against a single decent - forget good - B10 team
No one is really arguing that Michigan was close to winning the games you highlight, but there is enough data to dispute the quoted remark.
Unfortunately, defense and special teams also play a role in a game's outcome.
February 7th, 2011 at 2:41 PM ^
20 points, UM had 28. You are correct that we failed to reach OSU's points allowed. They allowed 14 a game, we had 7. It wasn't like the offense was stoned was though, we had around 350 yards compared to the 262 they allowed on a season. It was similar to the MSU game, in terms of moving the ball, but not capitilizing.
I was refering to the games that he listed in his post, however which did not include OSU. He specifically asked how the offense did against Wisconson, Iowa, Penn State, and both MSU's. In those games he listed we scored more points and had more yards than those team's averages, with the exception of both MSU's.That does not equate to terrible.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:49 PM ^
Michigan played four games against teams that were ranked in the final AP Top 25 Football Poll. They averaged 16.5 points against those four teams. Five other teams in the Big Ten averaged more points vs. teams in the final AP Top 25 Football Poll than Michigan.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:36 AM ^
for the field goal kicking. They really didn't handle that position any different than most other teams do. If the field goal kicking had been terrible all three years, than I would be more inclined to place blame on the coaches. As far as more balance in recruting, by my count the last two recruiting classes had 25 offensive players and 24 or 23 defensive players depending on if you include Dorsey. Retaining and development those players was a big issue, but in terms of sheer numbers it's not overly skewed one way or another.
Other than some issues holding onto the ball, our special teams were actually pretty decent in 2008 and 2009. People need to stop acting like the special team as a whole, were horrible under RR because that is simply is not true.
I do agree, however that is time to move on. I would have give him another year as well, but Hoke is the guy to get behind at this point.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^
Who would you blame for FG woes? Something seems dreadfully wrong to end up 120th in FG's in the NCAA.
I thought we were also not that good in special teams, but that may be too harsh.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:23 PM ^
Why must someone always be to blame? Rich Rod recruited an All-American placekicker (Gibbons) and has several walk-ons...just like every other freaking school. Just another part of the perfect storm.
February 7th, 2011 at 10:57 AM ^
I graduated in 1993 but attended the games stilli in 1995 when Coach Carr took over the program, and you shouldve heard the harpings by fans at the time during his first two years. Let me assure you of one thing.... had Coach Carr gone 1-13 vs MSU, OSU, Iowa, PSU, Wisconsin in three years, he'd have been removed, too.
And the difference? Coach Carr would have been a man about it, like Coach Moeller was, and kept his mouth shut, instead of blaming or making excuses, especially about pulling in same direction.
Alot of fans didn't want Carr... don't forget that.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:15 AM ^
I don't think RR has blamed anyone. Only thing he has said was he thinks the worst was over, and he didn't like that DB waited as long as he did to fire him. Which I think is fair because the majority of us didn't like the timing either.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:25 PM ^
You must have missed the memo - as of the Hoke hiring, anyone who says anything even mildly negative about the program or positive about RR is an EMO WHINER 13-YEAR-OLD GIRL. Just ask Brian about what people are calling him.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:33 PM ^
Go back and read the posts Brian made immediately before and after the Hoke hiring, and you'll see why he received some criticism.
The level of sycophantry here toward Brian is reaching Scout/TJB levels. I like the guy, and have enjoyed his site, but he's just another fan like anyone else. He's not Moses bringing down wisdom from the heavens.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:02 AM ^
February 7th, 2011 at 1:13 PM ^
I would like to take this opportunity to point out that this new habit of yours of linking to your own posts in other threads is fucking stupid. Just copy and paste the shit here, unless you're goal is to be a jackass. If you're going to keep this stupid shit up, at least link to the comment in the thread, rather than the reply, at least that way you're providing context for your idiotic comments. For example - http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/blowout-loss-argumentthis-post-not-about-rr#comment-964215
February 7th, 2011 at 11:06 AM ^
If the point of your post is that we should all collectively move on and stop dissecting the RR era, I can agree. Unfortunately, that era will go down as the worst three-year stretch in the modern history of our program, both in terms of performance, negativity surrounding our program, and our overall standing in the heirarchy of college football elite.
But, in reading your post, I think that you basically say that people need to stop posting things blaming RR for the past three years, and just recognize that we had a perfect storn of bad things occur. Two points of response:
1. I don't see many people starting threads trashing RR. To the contrary, the debate seems to occur in response to posters starting threads defending RR. Of course, once the topic is opened, buth sides go at it, but the overwhelming majority of the time on this blog, the discussion starts in a thread that could be titled "here is my attempt to defend the past three years."
2. While I agree with the concept of the "perfect storm," I think that you may be letting RR off too easily. Things beyond his control - the WVU insanity, the freep Jihad, the vidided fanbase. Things NOT beyond his control - (a) massive attrition (some attrition is expected, what we saw was over the top by a lot), (b) terrible defensive recruiting that allowed our D to get so thin that we were forced to start true freshmen, (c) terrible hires on the D staff, (d) forcing GERG to run a 3-3-5 defense that he was not familiar with, (e) terrible management of special teams, and (f) making the offense so predictable that all decent teams were able to make adjustments after our opening drives and basically shut us down for large parts of the game.
So, while I will agree that shit happened that was beyond his control, much of the last three year's disastrous results was caused by issues that RR was directly responsible for.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:10 AM ^
This is a fair perspective...it should end here...but it won't
February 7th, 2011 at 11:34 AM ^
Saying RR is responsible for having to start true freshmen on defense. RR had two of his own recruiting classes, at best his guys would have been redshirt freshmen. How exactly is it his fault that there was a lack of upperclassmen talent to play over those guys?
I agree there is blame for certain things that should be placed on RR (some of those on RR alone), but this one doesn't make much sense.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:35 AM ^
In answer to the question of how it was his fault:
Vled and Turner - both highly touted guys who would have been non-freshmen and could have played in our secondary. Both transferred. Recruiting doesn't just relate to going out and getting high school kids to commit. It also relates to getting kids already on the team to "commit" to stick it out during a transition.
Also, let's add in D. Warren, who chose to get the hell out of the wasteland that was our defense for the NFL when it should have been plain to him that his NFL draft chances were not that good, coming off of a quiet year on a terrible D and having the types of skills that do not "grade out" well at the combine.
Imigine how much better our D would have been with D. Warren and Justin Turner at CB and Vlad at safety. There are just a few examples - there are others.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:47 AM ^
helped our defense, considering those guys haven't even contributed at the college level at this point? The first recruiting class was still not RR's own class, he had two of his own classes. The fact still remains that the upper classmen talent, with the exception of a couple guys was lacking. We only had 24 or so scholarship defensive players, when RR took over.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:01 PM ^
Well for one, Vlad and Justin would have been older than 18 - they would both have been 20, with 2 solid years of college practice and S&C under their belts.
As a second point, these guys were both big time recruits. Certainly, if you put any stock in the recruiting rankings (I think they are overrated, but do have some utility), these guys had much higher ceilings than the kids thrown out there this year. The fact that neither did well at the college level in practice might be a reflection on the coaching staff.
Look, I am not entirely blaming RR for the defense, but having these two players alone, forget about the others that transferred, could have made a big difference in our secondary.
Also, missing out on several big in-state D recruits during the post two seasons (2009 ans 2010) certainly didn't help. If we had to play true freshmen, it might have helped to have some true freshmen that were closer to ready.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:11 PM ^
You're still not getting the point about Vlad and Turner. Vlad's knee will probably never be the same as it was when he earned that fourth star. The guy was buried beneath Van Slyke on the depth chart to start the season.
Turner couldn't crack the depth chart, either. Avery probably still would have gotten time ahead of him. His washout at WVU says he was just not ready for D-1 ball.
The fact that neither did well at the college level in practice might be a reflection on the coaching staff.Good God. They both washed out at other schools as well. Pay attention, damn it. Missing out on several big in-state D recruits? Like who? Lawrence Thomas, maybe. You should keep in mind, however, that these "big-time recruits" need to have the grades to qualify for Michigan, as Dorsey taught us. Who's to say these hypothetical recruits would have been accepted?
February 7th, 2011 at 11:49 AM ^
First off, how do you fault a coach because a kid who is told he will be a 3rd round draft pick decides to leave school for the NFL? Did you flip out when Shantee Orr and Ernest Shazor left school only to go undrafted, or did you not even notice because you're really just mad that we lost games?
Also, the fact that Vlad and Justin Turner transferred is a good thing. It is the kind of thing Nick Saban bends the rules to accomplish. Neither one was going to be a quality college player at Michigan any time soon due to health (Vlad) and attitude (Turner). Colorado's new coach (at a program with much bigger problems than we've got right now) just turned Vlad down and he ended up at Toledo. Turner washed out at WVU and is trying to catch on at a lower division school. Did Rodriguez miss on recruiting them? Of course, but that is something that happens to every single coach across the country. The difference is that Michigan had a disastrous depth chart and fans had penciled every decent secondary recruit into the starting lineup a year or two out of high school.
The program implosion that caused 3-9 also caused every recruiting decision to be scrutinized to the point that a freshman CB failing to see the field now meant the coaching staff had screwed over the entire program. This is the kind of stuff the OP means when he describes a "perfect storm."
February 7th, 2011 at 11:56 AM ^
- Where are Turner and Emilien now?
- Are you trying to imply that Warren left for a reason other than him buying into some of the hype suggesting that he would be an early round draftee?
- Do you also blame RR for Cissoko's downward spiral?
February 7th, 2011 at 12:06 PM ^
1. They are on much lower tiered programs and not doing all that much. Fair point, and I am not saying that these two guys were sure hits. But, had they come in to a better D situation (or a better staff that would have motivated them better), who knows how they would be doing.
2. Yes. Of course players leave early, and we don't know why Donovan left. Maybe he just thought he would be a big time pick and make it in the NFL, or maybe he looked at the terrible D situation (coaching, etc.) at Michigan and figured that while he might otherwise come back, his stock would only decrease further if he stayed. Not blaming RR for not keeping D. Warren, alone. But, when added in the pile of other kids that he couldn't keep, a pattern emerges.
3. Not a bit. I never mentioned Cissoko. However, since you did, is it possible that under a coach like Lloyd, his spiral would not have happened? Who the hell knows. If yes, that still would not be a criticizm of RR, in my book, as different kids react to different coaches differently.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:18 PM ^
1) You can't motivate some kids. Have you ever worked in education? Some just want to be treated like kings (coughMichiganStaterecruitscough).
2) We know EXACTLY why Warren left early. His agent told him he'd be a 3rd-round pick at the latest.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:33 PM ^
"We know EXACTLY why Warren left early. His agent told him he'd be a 3rd-round pick at the latest."
That fact that he had an agent give him that advice implies that he decided he was leaving (having an agent) before HIS agent gave him said advice. Maybe I'm missing something but this statement is contradictory.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:26 PM ^
1. These kid's fizzled out of the picture over the course of one year. They attempted to join other, lesser programs, and didn't make it there either. If they had potential, they'd be on a roster right now. RR cannot be to blame for kid's not transitioning well into college ball.
2. I provided a link in my above post but it was easy to miss. Here it is again. http://cdsdraft.com/profile.php?id=4339. At least one service predicted Warren to be drafted in the first round. He listened to the hype, declared, and then proceeded to fail to impress at the combine.
3. Remember Johnny Sears? Carr kicked him off the team in 2007 for reasons rumored to be drug related.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:13 AM ^
Nice try but if the comments thus far are any indication, RR needs to serve as the scapegoat for those that "didn't bring it up but sure as hell are going to finish it." Some just need to have the last word rather than just agreeing to disagree and moving on.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:24 AM ^
I'll never understand the people who truly believe that Rodriguez drove a fully loaded Escalade over a cliff, and I'll never get the ones who didn't see any shortcomings or poorly played hands during his regime, but this is the most satisfying "capper" post that I've seen to date.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:35 AM ^
muthafuckas take poops up in the vestibule
February 7th, 2011 at 12:11 PM ^
I would go one step further and suggest that the perfect storm that did things in pretty much all occurred between January 2, 2008 and opening day on August 30th later that year. In that time we lost an extremely talented senior class full of longtime starters, the transition attrition took out some of the guys poised to fill their shoes, and Rodriguez had been stuck with the "sleazy outsider" label thanks to the buyout nonsense and the "family values" story. Add in a natural slip in recent recruiting (the kind of run we were on where 3-star recruits turn into Braylon, Hart, Harris, and a series of blue-chips all pan out like Henne, Long, Woodley, Branch, Burgess, Crable, Hall, etc. isn't really sustainable for any program) and you had a coach stuck with a bad football team and atrocious PR. Then they go 3-9 and the fanbase that had spent the last 6-7 years griping about the near-misses under Carr (and who view the former coach in a much more positive light thanks to the last-hurrah bowl game and his departure from the program) now had to come to grips with supporting a bad football team for the first time in 40 years. It was pretty much all over at that point.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^
Say what you will about RR but he left the program in better shape than he found it, 2008's starting line up compared to this years should tell you that. Now we all better pray Hoke and the gang can cash in on the ground work layed by RR because if they fail the next coaching search will involve DB on his knees begging Ron English to take the job. Failure is not an option in other words so lets put this to rest and get behind our current staff.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:55 PM ^
I don't think Hoke is going to have any trouble keeping his job. He inherits a strong team and expectations have been ratcheted down because of the transition. Throw in a shitload of positive press and things seem pretty safe.
I think questions exist about the long-term future of the program (Can Hoke build a team into a national power from the ground up?) but I'm very encouraged so far thanks to the two coordinator hires. Coach Carr hired every coordinator he ever had by promoting someone already on the coaching staff, which I think led to a big X's and O's disadvantage during his tenure. Coach Hoke just hired a guy who has posted elite results at multiple stops to run his offense and just stole the Ravens defensive coordinator (a guy with quality experience as a college coordinator at Michigan and Notre Dame who was also on the staff at a very successful Florida program). Both hires are a little older so Hoke may have to repeat the process down the road, but if he can be the equal of Carr as a recruiter and figurehead (I don't see why he couldn't, especially if the team is as successful as I think it will be out of the gate next year) while venturing outside the program to hire qualified guys to run his offense and defense, I think the future (near and long term) is very bright.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:22 PM ^
I would disagree. I think he left better players than when he arrived, but I think to say the "program" is better than when he arrived is false. The view of Michigan right now is a program that has 3 seasons full of turmoil, had NCAA violations under his watch, (whether his fault or not), fielded the worst defenses in michigan history (once again, not all his fault, but partly and agreed this is part of the perfect storm), and very little stability with RR basically on a semi-hot seat after his first season here. When he took the job, the program was in no way as it is now.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:23 PM ^
I have to imagine that if you polled the average college football fan/ESPN viewer/Ameican with the question, "Is Michigan better off in 2011 after Rich Rodriguez than they were in 2008 after Lloyd Carr?" you wouldn't get that response. Did Rodriguez leave a talented slate of offensive talent? Sure. But until our defense cracks the 80s, our brand is back, and the top recruits in the nation, nay, state, are much, much more excited about us, you can't say the program is better off.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:39 PM ^
From a PR stand point I agree with you, we are certainly not better off. I think that is changing rather quickly in our favor though. Hoke was left behind far more talent than RR inherited, so look for our defense to crack the 80's next year as well. This will also be a result of a defensive staff that is far more capable than the one it is replacing.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:40 PM ^
Program strength should be about what is going to happen going forward rather than what just happened or what went on years before. Many would have said Notre Dame was in a worse position when Ty Willingham coached his final game than they were two years later with Charlie Weis poised to make his second straight BCS bowl appearance. Those people (including the AD who gave Weis a ten year extension) couldn't have been more wrong. The same kind of logic is at play when people say Rodriguez inherited a 9-4 team or that Hoke is inheriting a ridiculously bad defense.
People who don't follow the program closely may think we are in bad shape but I don't think that opinion is going to last very long nor do I think many casual fans will be able to accurately assign praise/blame for the upcoming results.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:52 PM ^
The average Michigan fan has enough trouble looking at the big picture. I certainly wouldn't expect the average football fan to fully grasp the complexities of the situation.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:37 PM ^
I get what you're saying, but I think you're walking a fine line with this kind of talk. I think this is setting up the "Hoke can only win with RR's players" kind of talk that will happen if he has a successful year in the fall. I do agree though that RR did not leave the cupboards bare.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:35 PM ^
That the "Perfect Storm" resolution has been decisively defeated, in favor of our deep-seated need to rehash the very same arguments in the very thread calling for the end of these arguments. Come to think of it, a sinking ship is a pretty good metaphor for what the OP tried to accomplish here -- or maybe a lead balloon?
February 7th, 2011 at 5:04 PM ^
I think if given more time RR would have been successful here but he is no longer the coach here and it's time to give your full support to Mr. Hoke and the team!
The only failing on RR part in my opinion was not getting a good DC in place his first season and letting that DC run and develop the defense.
February 7th, 2011 at 5:31 PM ^
Can we stop re-visiting why RR didn't work? It's been said the same a thousand different ways. Regardless of why, it's time to move on. He'll, it's been time since his departure.
February 7th, 2011 at 5:38 PM ^
For this to work, this thread should be deleted and no threads on the subject must appear again. The resolution must, by necessity, appear in writing nowhere.