Patrick Mahomes was a 3 Star QB, Jimmy Garoppolo was a 2 Star QB
Patrick Mahomes was a 3 Star QB.
He was ranked the 29th "PRO" QB. He was ranked 655th overall football player by 247.
He had only 3 scholarship offers:
These are the 28 QBs ranked ahead of him. Wilton Speight is in the list. How many names do you recognize?
These are the Top 10 overall players from his class year. Jabrill Peppers is in the list. How many names do you recognize?
Jimmy Garoppolo was a 2 Star QB.
He was ranked the 67th "PRO" QB. He was ranked the 2034th overall player. 247 didn't have a ranking for him, only a composite. And, no picture of him.
He had only 3 scholarship offers:
These are the 66 QBs ranked higher than him. How many names do you recognize?
These are the Top 10 overall players from his class. How many names do you recognize?
I can only say,
"I again saw under the sun that the race is not to the swift and the battle is not to the strong, and neither is bread to the wise, nor riches to those of intelligence and understanding, nor favor to men of ability; but time and chance happen to them all."
It's profound how many of these players are not even in football anymore.
Hat/Tip to BuddhaBlue for the comment that sparked my interest: https://mgoblog.com/comment/243747892#comment-243747892
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
I was a 5 star, but look at me now.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
Uncle Rico might only be a two-star athlete, but he has several things going for him: consistency and endurance. I've watched him rep that drop back for over an hour now and the last rep looks exactly like the first.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:22 PM ^
Hell man, you have to put arm strength into that equation. Back in '82, he used to be able to throw a pigskin a quarter-mile. How much you wanna bet he could throw it clear over that mountain there?
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:24 PM ^
Great post, thanks! QB just seems to be the hardest position to predict from both h.s.-->college as well as college--> pro. I wonder if there is some Moneyball stuff going on here where scouts have a vision of what they're looking for and disregard anyone who doesn't fit that preconception.
The best way the scout a baseball player (in my opinion) is to not watch them play baseball. I don't think that applies to quarterbacking as there is a lot more to it than the numbers, but it seems clear scouts are bringing biases to the process. Falling in love with "arm strength" and height instead of ball skills, for example.
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^
Yeah, nobody thinks about arm strength when it comes to Patrick Mahomes.
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:51 PM ^
Mahomes' problem is that he was a multi-sport athlete and wasn't getting invites to the big camps, or wasn't able to go because of the other sports. The bias there is recruiting services pump up guys who attend their camps.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
Same with Big Ben. Was a nobody in high school because he didn't play QB until his senior year. Obviously had the perfect tangibles to play in the NFL, but nobody knew who he was
February 2nd, 2020 at 6:46 PM ^
Imagine having to justify playing your son instead of a hall of fame QB for the rest of your life.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:48 PM ^
We were always told it was offensive lineman.
February 3rd, 2020 at 9:03 AM ^
I think offensive lineman are harder to guess at. Quarterbacks are hard because there are a lot of necessary pieces, and because you really don't know what you have until he has been under fire and taken a bunch of hits. You are fighting human nature here. Most of us don't have what it takes to stand in a pocket and be aware of when we need to escape while also being aware of what's downfield. A lot of guys look like they do until they have taken some hits. Since that part is so hard to find many coaches go for system quarterbacks, and use those skills to negate the likely lack of situational awareness. I also think we underrate situation and confidence, because nobody wants to believe that their coach and their system are what ruins their quarterbacks. Connor Cook looked like an all-big ten guy until his offensive line fell apart and then he fell apart. A lot of schools today are having success with transfers, which has me thinking a lot lately about quarterback psychology. There seems to be a trick to making your guy feel comfortable.
February 2nd, 2020 at 4:34 PM ^
Curious to hear more about your "best way to scout a baseball player is to not watch him play baseball" comment. As a "baseball guy," I'm not sure I'm familiar with that concept.
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:26 PM ^
This is a very useless post and neither qb won anything that mattered in college so who cares from a Michigan perspective
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:50 PM ^
Well said. It's all lies. - Maizen
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^
Mahomes didn't win anything in college because he played for a program.woth horrific defense.
Put him at Michigan or Alabama or Penn State and he wins a bunch of individual and team things.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
Oklahoma has had shit defenses, but they seem to do OK.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^
Oklahoma plays in a shit conference which helps them look a lot better then they are.
February 2nd, 2020 at 5:10 PM ^
Mahomes played in the same conference.
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:31 PM ^
that Mason Rudolph pic is SOOO Mason Rudolph
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:32 PM ^
I saw Mahomes play as a freshman vs Baylor and saw him throw it 60 yards off his back foot and thought “this kid might be something.”
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^
Jimmy is also an extreme example of a game manager on a team with a great run game and an elite defense. What’s the takeaway here, other than that Al Borges was an awful evaluator of QBs?
February 2nd, 2020 at 6:00 PM ^
Yeah Trent dilfer won a super bowl. It doesn’t actually prove anything by itself
February 2nd, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^
And the greatest NFL QB in history split time here his senior year until the MSU game.
There is not always correlation between college success and NFL success.
IMO we should be looking for the QB that wins us the most games IN COLLEGE.
February 2nd, 2020 at 10:35 PM ^
This^^^^^ Jimmy played like a 2 star tonight. Start him on any average NFL team and he's taking them nowhere. The 49ers were in the Super Bowl because of great defense and running game, and honestly a pretty weak NFC especially after the Saints went down.
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^
For every Mahomes and Garoppolo, there’s tons of 2 and 3 stars that didn’t even make it to the league. I’m not a huge star gazer but the probability of a higher star player planning out is greater than a lower star player.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
Every year there's roughly:
25 5-stars
200 4-stars
and 1,000,000+ 2/3-stars.
It's a statistical certainty that most NFL players will be 2 or 3-stars.
And that's not even beginning to talk about how highly-coveted QBs by every team aren't necessarily (key: necessarily) good at anything specifically. Maybe solely judging on body-frame/athletics--which is merely "potential" of which there are many misses. And then the positive feedback loop of top recruits, recruiting-services, and
Not to mention recruiting services are entertainment, so the bias will be there, and aren't skin-in-the-game coaches/slowly drift away from competence.
Also physical and mental development in the male animal is only at it's very, very beginning in late high school, and while professional athletics requires physical eliteness, the real "game" is absolutely mental.
The world is incredibly complex, even just a static picture. And then once you hit the "play" button, the snapshots move forwards, and the complex systems interact, it's kind if surprising that a) anything works at all, and b) the recruiting services do have less false-positives, but of course TONS of false negatives.
Perception and attention is weird.
February 2nd, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
I'm always impressed by how many players in the NFL come from schools that are not big-name places. For example, Maine has four players currently in the NFL; Samford has five; Ferris State has five. You have to figure not many, if any, were above 3 star. Most were probably 2 star or unranked.
February 2nd, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^
How you deal with pain has to be a factor in players who make it to the NFL.
February 2nd, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
Ya I know.
Just thought it would be something interesting to see today. I wasn't trying to prove anything about anything.
February 2nd, 2020 at 6:27 PM ^
I loved when OP asked how many names I recognized from Mahomes' class's top 10. Uhhh like eight of them because they're all in the NFL.
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:37 PM ^
Jesus, what is with people and these long-ass screenshots?
It's profound how many of these players are not even in football anymore.
In what sense of the word 'profound'? Don't go searching for five-dollar words if you don't understand what they mean.
February 2nd, 2020 at 5:55 PM ^
Profound costs $5 now? Goddamn inflation.
February 2nd, 2020 at 6:27 PM ^
Man there was a day you could buy a handful of profound at the candy store for like 5¢.
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:40 PM ^
Now do one for the 4 QBs in the CFP this year.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
This. I think this post serves to demonstrate how much better these websites are at scouting nowadays. Even in just the last few years they've gotten a thousand percent better. I haven't done any research but it feels like there are far fewer "misses" in recruiting nowadays compared to 5 or 10 years ago.
Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields were the top 2 players in their class. Fields is just scratching the surface of his potential. Joe Burrow was a highly touted recruit that committed to OSU. Jalen Hurts is the only outlier and I think he was a 3-star/borderline 4-star. Even looking at the QB's who didn't make it to the playoff but have lived up to their rankings like Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm continues to drive home the point.
The fact remains that, while these services are still only projections and as such will have errors, highly ranked recruits are more likely to pan out than those who are not. They also have higher ceilings.
February 3rd, 2020 at 7:39 AM ^
Hurts was a top 200 player and the #4 dual threat QB coming out of High School
February 2nd, 2020 at 2:45 PM ^
Put either one on the Lions and they are probably injured and a mediocre QB at best.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
So there was a Tyler Gabbert and a Tyler Gabbart? They are there exact same size, went to different high schools in Missouri and both committed to Missouri? One was the 17th QB and the other we the 18th QB. What are the chances?
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
Reminds me of when Jake Rudock went up against Jake Rudddock.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
Man those QBs suck.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
Obviously Harbaugh’s fault.
/s
February 2nd, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^
Obviously Dan Villari will be the NFL MVP in 2026.
February 2nd, 2020 at 8:27 PM ^
Based on OP analysis he has an excellent shot.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:15 PM ^
I would've loved to see Tyler Gabbert and Tyler Gabbart go head-to-head.
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:30 PM ^
And osu had 2 players when offensive player of the year and defensive rookie of the year so your post is pointless
February 2nd, 2020 at 8:52 PM ^
What was the point I was making?
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^
I don't really get this post
I think it's pretty well known that high school rankings have almost no correlation to NFL success. Likewise, college success has almost no correlation to NFL success. Garoppolo played for Eastern Illinois, Mahomes played for a Texas Tech team that had "an NFL coach" on the sidelines and they never did shit. Last year's Super Bowl had Goff from a terrible Cal team and Brady (ok he was pretty good in college)
Thomas Rawls was our 3rd string running back and had more success in the NFL than any running back Michigan has had since...?
Talent gets you from high school to college, but hard work and fitting a role gets you a spot in the NFL. It explains why OSU QB's kick our ass and never do shit in the NFL: they're talented but have no role in the next level
February 2nd, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
We get it. Projecting QB talent is really hard.
On the other hand, saying "high school rankings have almost no correlation to NFL success" is demonstrably false.
247 had a write up with stats for the 2017 and 2018 drafts.
Here are your chances of being drafted based on your high school star rating:
Five-star (61.6%), Four-star (23.3%), Three-star (5.95%) and two-star (1.25%)
5-stars are 10x more likely to be drafted than 3-stars, and 49x more likely than 2-stars. That's a bit more than "no correlation".
https://247sports.com/Article/NFL-Draft-recruiting-rankings-go-hand-in-hand--117819292/
February 2nd, 2020 at 5:20 PM ^
Excellent information! Data from the real world.