Pat Forde best/worst case scenarios
He has us potentially charging to a final four with an easy bracket after an upset of duke...
or blown out by tenn
unsuprising with all top seeds best/worst along the lines of nat title, or 2nd round upset
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/2011/columns/story?columnist=f…
I love the best case. I see us beating Tennessee pretty easily, but Duke is different task at hand. Duke is much more experienced than we are and that definitely counts for something. But you never know what can happen, that's why you play the game.
Does Kyrie Irving (SP?) playing or not playing have anything to do with our chances?
but if he is able to return and is in playing shape, then its pretty much all over. If he's a step slow or only able to go 10 mins then I'd say we would still have a shot (assuming we beat Tennessee)
he is full go for what its worth. I still dont see him playing the whole game,I think they will limit him for as long as they can.
Michigan (8)
Best Case: Wolverines capitalize on all the Fab Five nostalgia in the air, charging to their first Final Four since the (vacated) glory days of the early 1990s. After shocking Duke in the second round, Michigan is gifted with a Sweet 16 game against neighbor Oakland, which pulled two upsets to set up a rematch of their December game in Ann Arbor. This goes like that one, which was an 18-point Wolverines win. Nostalgia deepens when Michigan is confronted by Steve Fisher and San Diego State in the regional final. Wolverines win there, as John Beilein wins the coaching matchup and reminds everyone that Fisher was a better recruiter (with the help of Ed Martin) than tactician. Jalen Rose, Chris Webber and Juwan Howard hold court like elder statesmen in Houston. Meanwhile, Ohio State flames out in the second round against George Mason, and Jim Tressel is suspended by the NCAA for several games that actually matter.
Worst Case:: Tennessee plays up to its talent, and Michigan plays down to its unathletic weaknesses in a first-round rout. The Wolverines don't make enough 3-pointers to offset their chronic weaknesses in rebounding, blocking shots or making steals. The nomadic Beilein decides he's not a Michigan man and bolts back to the Big East at Providence. Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. go pro, just because they can. Ohio State wins the national title in a waltz. And Brady Hoke inexplicably moves Denard Robinson to safety during spring practice.
If he's going to go that far in his worst case scenario, why not go futher and have everyone involved with the Michigan program spontaneously combust. I can forsee no scenaro that has Beilein leaving anytime soon, especially of his own doing.
Don't jinx it. We don't want to provoke Angry Michigan ____-hating ____ any more than we already have.
So, the best-case scenario means we play well in the tournament and the worst-case means we play poorly. Who knew?
WE ARE NOT A BAD REBOUNDING TEAM!!!
On the offensive glass we are (327 nationally). Defensively we're OK.
Do you remember the last couple minuets of the Michigan St. game. We are ranked 249 in rebounding margin, which seems pretty bad to me.
a good measure of how good of a rebouding team you are. OR% is a much better measure because it tells you how much you can rebound when a player didn't make a shot.
is problematic as well though, in part because offensive rebounding is offen an issue of style. Some really good coaches and teams really care about getting offensive rebounds (MSU, Tennessee), while some don't care at all and would prefer that players just get back on defense (Wisconsin). A team that emphasizes offensive rebounding and sends guys to the glass will have far more than a team that would rather get back and play solid D.
March 17th, 2011 at 12:29 AM ^
but you can see OR% on the defensive side to see how well a team rebound in general.
It's still a better measure than rebounding margin.
March 17th, 2011 at 12:55 AM ^
Hold the phones... defensive rebounds don't come from when a player didn't make a shot?
Huh, that really is the worst possible case.
Especially because I think Denard is still more cornerback sized/skilled...
He forgot to mention that Hoke would then be killed in a "terrible accident".
And I have my acceptance to U of M rescinded...
I don't know why Forde wasted his time. He could have just confined it to best and worst case scenarios on the court, while sparing us Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway bolting for the NBA and Beilein leaving his job.
How the hell do you not write for a major media organization?!
Grant Hill is a bitch.
Kyrie Irving is not. Without Irving I think our chances were around 20% - per the crazy stats ESPN insider had pulled together. Maybe as high as 30%. I'm not sure - I just know it had a "2" in front of it.
With Irving? Shit. 10% or less, IMO. Sort of like the Blake Griffin game, but with 5 kids that could play (and are getting the calls).
Still, KU was in the West last year when they lost to N. Iowa in the same game. And 10% > 0%.
He didn't quite get the worst case right. Worst case is a final four of OSU, MSU, Notre Dame and I guess Duke (no one in our bracket that is a rival), and MSU winning the title as a 10 seed.
I might substitute SDSU for Duke, just for the what-might've-been frustration of seeing Fisher go to another Final Four.
I have Duke Beating OSU and then beating Florida for the NC. Call me crazy.
I have Texas beating Duke and MSU beating Florida.
I have OSU beating Texas and Kansas beating OSU.
Even with all his teams troubles Izzo has to salivating at MSU's bracket. I wouldn't be shocked to see MSU make a deep run.
Out in the first round I say!
Reading these for the 16 seeds makes me giggle.
"They show up, take a 5-4 lead into the first media timeout and have a team manager snap a quick photo of the scoreboard for posterity. Buckeyes go on to win by 25, but UTSA has its moment. "
"And Brady Hoke inexplicably moves Denard Robinson to safety during spring practice."
I laughed. And then I cried. And then I drank and prayed to Angry Michigan Safety Hating God..
Our pool awards points based on 1) Round and 2) Seed. Multiply Round x Seed and add up your total points in the bracketology after the NC Game and there's your winner. I have UM playing Oakland and then SDSU for the Final Four berth, so I like Forde's best case.
GO BLUE!
He went too far on the worst case. Seemed like our worst case scenario has way more torture than other schools. Michigan fans have vivid imaginations, I had a small heart attack just seeing some of that written.
Michigan is #1 in athletic ruin porn. What other school has had such a notable, storied history ruthlessly stripped away, resurrected, stripped away, then resurrected again, with Herculean efforts, larger-than-life figures, and monumental achievements for both Michigan and her adversaries? It's only natural to write about doomsday scenarios for Michigan because it moves copy and gets clicks.
That's what we get for harassing Joe Lunardi all year with non-stop emails.
I like this for one reason: Forde actually seems to know something about Michigan. His "worst case scenario" for MSU is really funny, too. I'm just happy to see a national guy actually do his research when writing about Michigan for a change.
But I sent darius morris a message on facebook. I said good luck fridday, we all beleive in you. And he said thanks