OT: USMNT WC speculation
Congrats on the team success, and qualifying for the WC. I wanted to make a thread looking forward to the World Cup, with two specific questions:
1.) Does anyone have suggestions to blogs/sites to read information on the team?
2.) What does our starting XI look like? At full strength, who plays, and what formation do we use?
1) Mgoblog
2) Whatever Brian writes on Mgoblog.
I'm not trying to be disparaging. Your post is legit. These are my honest answers.
I miss the days when Brian posted about USMNT. Hopefully he has some time during the offseason / OT period to put out some content.
Unfortunately, the World Cup is gonna be during the busiest part of the year for him (late November/December - peak football season/start of basketball), so I'm guessing the WC coverage won't unfortunately be as in-depth as it would be for a summer world cup.
Why isn't this one in the summer?
Because Qatar is hotter than the sun in the summer months.
1) The Athletic and Stars and Stripes FC are both excellent sources of information.
2) Not sure how to start answering this question given we haven't seen the team be all together and healthy for quite a while. I think roles will start to solidify soon but for now this is still a young team that I think is trying to figure out how best to utilize available talent.
March 31st, 2022 at 11:50 PM ^
The article looks old. Mostly because I saw John Brooks in as Center Back over Walker Zimmerman and then I opened up the article and everything in it seems to be from just after the Gold Cup this summer. I mean, not a ton has changed but I think when talking about Striker and Center Back there's a lot to be resolved(more than there is with the midfield which appears to be the team strength this cycle).
American Soccer Now is another really nice site for USMNT, especially for tactics and following USMNT players both domestically and overseas in a very MGOBLOG like way.
If podcasts/Discord message boards are your thing, then Scuffed is far and away my favorite USMNT community and Adam Belz may be the kindest human being in all of sports media.
Thanks for the Scuffed recommendation. Hadn't heard of it before and now realize it was exactly what I was missing.
Really appreciate it.
WC speculation>>>>>>WD speculation
Not a blog, but the Scuffed Podcast is excellent. Very low key but super informative discussion of the team, the coaching, individual players, etc.
Also the Total Soccer Show podcast is good when they discuss the USMNT too. They talk about a lot of other soccer stuff too so you have to pick and choose what to listen to.
Regarding the starting XI, there is literally no way to know what things will look like in 8 months. But if the tournament started tomorrow, the lineup seems pretty well established, with just a couple of questions. Assuming everyone is healthy and available, here's my take:
Keeper *should* be Matt Turner but is more likely Steffen
The back line, left to right, is A. Robinson, M. Robinson, Zimmerman, Dest. There are other options at CB (Chris Richards, John Brooks, others) who would probably be fine too.
Midfielders are Musah, McKennie, Adams (so-called MMA midfield)
Wingers are 2 of Pulisic, Weah, Reyna
Forward is a name out of a hat from: Pepi, Ferreira, Zardes, Dike, Sargent (my choice would be Ferreira)
Apart from health of players, there are 2 big questions leading up to the cup. First is what to do with Reyna? He's pretty clearly one of our best players but it's hard to take Weah or Pulisic off the field. Weah was probably our best attacker in qualifying. Reyna is excellent in the midfield but I can't see taking McKennie or Musah off the field either. This is the huge (but nice) problem for the lineup.
The huge (but not nice) problem for the lineup (and second question) is who starts at striker? None of the candidates have distinguished themselves. Almost all of them are very young so it's not out of the question that one or more of them blow up in the next 8 months, but as it stands right now that spot is probably the weakest on the team. Something I'd love to see them try this summer is putting Weah up top. He's done it some for his club and I think he's got the best skillset to make it work. A front three of Pulisic-Weah-Reyna could be incredibly dynamic.
Reyna as false 9? He's going to cut in off the wing anyway so why not put him in the middle of the front three and have him try to draw out the CBs to play balls in behind to Pulisic and Weah.
Yeah, Clint Dempsey on the post-game suggested last night starting Pulisic, Weah (as the 9) and Reyna to get their best attackers on the field. Not a bad idea
This is pretty much the definitive rundown to your question, but I will add a couple of things:
1) I never really liked Stars and Stripes FC or a lot of other coverage, but Matt Doyle (the "Armchair Analyst") at mlssoccer.com has the best read on the USMNT from an analytical perspective, and Grant Wahl has the best insider coverage for interviews/team details/etc. I've only recently gotten into Scuffed, but they are the center of the non-toxic USMNT fan's universe. In my opinion, those are the best places to start.
2) For the initiated, I think it might be helpful to add vibes and tiers of players:
Tier I: JJ McCarthy Level aka the "Athletes who are slightly older than children into which we invest all of our hopes and dreams" Tier
1. Weston McKinnie (CM, Juventus) - Everything you want in a saucy, hardworking and direct midfielder who tells the most famous Italian soccer player ever that he puts ranch in pasta and thinks espressos are gross.
2. Tyler Adams (CDM, RB Liepzig) - Our most important player by far. He does EVERYTHING and is a big reason our defense has been secretly awesome. He covers for everyone, doesn't talk much and is a constant steadying presence. Seth will have a LB comp from 1994 that I can't think of.
3. Puli (LW, Chelsea) - You should have an opinion on him already.
4. Sergino Dest (RB, Barcelona) - Our most technically skilled player, and one who (unlike Adams, Puli, Weah and Gio) regularly gets playing time on Barcelona. He's not pugnacious, but he's the guy with the best highlights.
5. Gio Reyna (RW, Borussia) - Son of a USMNT legend who seems like he would be a composed coaches son, but is actually our most fun player who does all the tricks and gets into all the fights. He broke a Panamanian players ankles on Sunday and then stopped to yell at him to "get up pussy" so that fans nearby could hear (82' for those interested).
6. Tim Weah (RW, Lille) - Son of the best African player ever, who was our most consistent attacking presence. We'll have to figure out how to get Gio, Weah, and Puli to play together, but he's such a treasure as a creator of chances.
Tier II: Cade McNamara Level aka the "Adults in the Room" even if they are really children
7. Walker Zimmerman (CB, Nashville) - The first centerback I can remember who makes me feel safe at night, even more than Gooch, and a viking from Atlanta.
8. Antonee "Jedi" Robinson (LB, Fulham) - He's really good and friends with all the best players. Fun to watch too. No jokes to tell.
9. Yunus Musah (CM, Valencia) - He's 19 and much more of an excitable bug who probably belongs in Tier I, and he's been ridiculously consistent and fun to watch. This is too low for him and he's an absolute joy, but I'm not editing this.
10. Miles Robinson (CB, Atlanta) - The other half of a blissfully boring centerback duo. I don't know enough about specific skills, but he seems slightly more likely to be subbed out or dropped for a game.
Tier III: Andrel Anthony Level aka Borderline starter who should get more minutes because I love him like a son
11. Matt Turner (GK, Arsenal) - Injured now but is the Cade McNamara of our team in that he has a high floor and when he plays in games above freezing, he's awesome. But he's a backup at Arsenal instead of starting in MLS, so there's worry that he will regress. He's also injured now.
12. Ricardo Pepe (ST, Augsburg) - 19 year old "next big thing" striker who has spent four months looking like every American striker who gets called the next big thing. Huge upside though.
13. Brendon Aaronson (LW, RB Salzburg) - He was a bona fide starter before others passed him. He's still a gingy God who is young and shows flashes. He could seriously break out.
14. Luca de al Torre (CM, Heracles) - a high upside midfielder backup who, like Musah, is super fun to watch and everywhere, except he's still a little too young. However, he's a pros pro at being the ref worker and the guy who breaks up fights.
15. Kellyn Acosta (CDM, Colorado) - my favorite player. A seasoned vet (26) that will be Adams' backup, but also our best player for (1) set pieces and (2) talking shit and messing with the other team. He is what American soccer is supposed to be: an asshole who takes free kicks.
16. Jesus Ferreira (ST, Dallas) - To steal from Doyle, he's a striker who does everything well BUT scoring goals. He's great, but I don't think you go that far with him starting.
17. Chris Richards (CB, Hoffenheim) - The number three among blissfully boring centerbacks. I'll let someone else talk about him.
18. DeAndre Yedlin (RB, Miami) - The only player from the 2014 WC and a perfect backup to Dest. He's like a 4 star who you feel awesome about against Indiana and meh about against OSU.
19. Paul Arriola (Winger, Dallas) - E from Entourage. He's short, nobody who doesn't watch thinks he's good. Me citing him in this position will make you think less of me. And yet, every time he plays, it works out in the end.
20. Shaq Moore (RB, Tenerife) - Remember every Michigan third string center who becomes a legend for putting in 20 passable minutes (see e.g. Faulds), and you overrate him forever due to irrational love? Anyway, Shaq Moore is better than Zac Steffen and Reggie Cannon.
Tier IV: Donovan Jeter Tier aka I'm running out of time and space for this.
21-27. Cannon, Horvath, Dike, Zardes, Scalley, Bello, Busio, - They're all really good. Read more about them!
Tier V: Doghouse
28. Zac Steffen (GK, Man City) - Remember in 2018 when Devin Gil had much worse UFR grades than Josh Ross but started anyway because he looked better in practice? That's our starting goalie who our coach is committed to but was statistically the second worst goalie in all of qualifying. He's got tools though!
29. John Brooks (CB, Wolfsburg) - Longtime starter who had the upside but was too "adventurous" (like a highly rated FS who doesn't do the FS boring thing). He doesn't even get invited to camp now, which is a shame because apparently, he's really turning it around.
There's others that I'm missing, but that's the gist more or less.
Great stuff.
I'd say Acosta, Yedlin and Arriola belong in the Jeter tier of veteran players that are solid but have been mostly passed by younger guys.
I think all of this is spot on, well done.
I’d add that Aaronson is kind of like Arriola with a power mushroom: Undersized, quick, super high energy and a huge pest on defense. Except Aaronson hs way more skill on the ball.
Fantastic write up.
Given the uncertainty at Striker it’s worth putting Sargent and Jordan Pefok in your rankings? Both were called up for qualifying. Pefok has seen his goal scoring spike up with the Young Boys this last season.
1. I mostly get news from twitter. Coach Beard from Ted Lasso, Meg Swanick, and Grant Wahl are all useful for different reasons. Herculez Gomez is really great too.
2. It seems like the US is playing with a lot more positional flexibility than in past cycles, which is great for getting the best 11 on the field, but I think makes it a lot harder to pin down the position battles. I'll take a swing though, assuming everybody is healthy and in a good club situation (my guesses in bold):
GK: Steffen seems most likely, although it could be Turner if Steffen isn't playing.
DEF: Dest is probably the most obvious on potential alone. I like Antonee Robinson on the other side (see user avatar), although I think this is the deepest the fullback situation has ever been. Remembering the dearth of options after Cherundolo retired and later DMB in his fourth cycle being the best option, this is so, so much better. In the middle, I think it's a three way race between Zimmerman, Long, and Miles Robinson. I think that Berhalter likes Long the best and I think Miles Robinson is the best, so I'll go with those two.
MID: This is probably the easiest. McKennie in front of Musah and Adams seems like the pick whenever they're available. Acosta is solid and Busio is a dark horse.
FWD: I wouldn't say a #9 has really emerged, but combining potential, trajectory, and current performance, it's probably Pepi. Pulisic and Reyna might be the two most talented guys in the pool, so I assume they're the other two. Aaronson is right there too, and Sargent and Hoppe seem like they could explode over the next year.
Edit: Shoot, I forgot about Tim Weah. I'd put him with Aaronson as somebody that could easily start at forward.
They need to try combinations that have Pulisic, Reyna, and Weah on the field at the same time. Maybe Weah at Striker.
I love Michael Davies - one of the Men in Blazers duo. His writing during and after the '06 world cup in Germany made the event for me. We couldn't enjoy the event back then like we can now, and it actually helped point me in the direction of Newcastle who has a history similar to many of our local professional and college teams. I hope he chronicles the WC again this year, though I'm not sure.
It's not archived well, but here's a link to his 06 WC commentary.
1. https://www.americansoccernow.com/ and the Athletic. Matt Doyle does some good analysis on MLSSoccer.com as well.
Also Scuffed Podcast, Total Soccer Show and Futbol Americas (espn) are good sources to listen to.
2. Starting 11 is mostly set except for Striker. Gregg uses a 4-3-3. GK: Turner/Steffen. Back 4: Robinson Robinson Zimmerman Dest. Midfeild: Adams Acosta Mckennie. Attackers: Pulisic Fereira? Reyna. A lot of people are calling for Tim Weah to be used as a striker instead of a winger so that you can get him on the field at the same time as Pulisic and Reyna (Winger is by far our deepest position. 4 deep of champions league players)
Here is a spreadsheet I threw together last night just to organize my thoughts about the likely 23: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EZeU4TSXQNagXH-Z-IhW9VNn9sTCqHWq2412TuIwwI8/edit#gid=0
The fact that Shaq Moore has gotten in a few of these qualifiers and was a big part of the Gold Cup winning team and still doesn't show up on this list, speaks to the depth of the current team. (I probably have him higher on the list, but wouldn't be that surprised if he is left off entirely)
I have Yedlin and Cannon as the backup fullbacks because that's what it seems like Gregg will do but I'd def bring Scally instead of Cannon since he can play on both sides. Having your starting right back be your backup left back seems too risky.
Depth at winger is what's really crazy. Morris and Arriola are probably getting left home and they likely would have been starters in previous cycles.
I’m totally fine with Morris and Arriola being left off
Everyone should be. We have 4 wingers who play regularly in the championship league. They both are very good players though who are also still in their primes. It really shows the different level of talent we have now.
Check out the USMNT Reddit.
FYI the World Cup draw is Friday. Will be interesting to see who the US faces off against.
Qatar, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia please.
That would be nice. But do they make sure there's a European team in each group to limit the number of groups with two UEFA teams to five? Or do they just make sure there aren't three in a group (so six groups with two to allow for a group to not have one).
They don’t “make sure” per se but because you can’t have 3 euro teams in one group (plus the fact that most of the pot 1 and 2 teams are European) there will for sure be at least one per group.
Can’t have Qatar and Saudi Arabia since they’re in the same continental federation. Only Europe can have more than one team in the same group but hats because they make up about 1/3 of the spots.
Qatar, Tunisia and Ecuador or the European playoff winner would be the ideal group.
Random question from a newer soccer fan...how is it that a powerhouse like Italy can completely miss the WC?? Is it akin to 16 seed auto qualifier making it over an obviously superior bubble team?
Edit: Pretty much. Most of the top teams in the world are in Europe. Get caught in a tough group, play a bad game and you're on the outside looking in. Even without the epic choke against Macedonia, they still would have been playing Portugal for one spot.
Yes and no. The WC limits spots by confederation so while the European confederation does have slightly fewer spots than it probably "deserves" based quality, while other confederations get some weaker teams in, there is no subjective "at-large" equivalence for anyone. If there was, they'd still have been selected.
But they had to qualify via a kind of rough, somewhat random (and not subjective) process to get one of those European spots.
There are 55 teams in the Europe region and they split them all into ten groups of five or six. They do it based on seeding so the groups are relatively even but still you have to win your group to auto-advance. Not a ton of room for error.
That accounts for ten of their 13 spots.
Italy was the top seed in its group but Switzerland won it (for context Portugal was the one other top seed that didn't win its group).
The remaining three spots go to winners of three four team playoff "paths" made up of the 10 group runners up and the two highest remaining rated teams.
So Italy still had the chance to win a four team playoff to make it. They lost the first match to North Macedonia which is shocking. BUT had they won, they would have had to beat Portugal in the "finals" of their four team path. So either way, a team that was ranked top 10 in the world was going to get left out after they both failed to win their respective groups. I'm not sure how they both ended up in the same four team "path" but that was unlucky too.
Again, it's a tough way to do it.
CONCACAF, (North, Central America and Carribean) by contrast, did a playoff amongst the lower ranked teams to be in a eight team round robin that the top teams qualified for simply by rankings and they played each team twice (so a total of 14 games) with the top three teams advancing. So a bit more room for error. You're going to get the top three teams out of that pretty reliably.
March 31st, 2022 at 10:39 PM ^
This is a pretty fantastic analytics-focused article summarizing where the team stands after qualifying:
Some great websites are already posted by others here. Honestly, I would recommend watching as many highlights or games as possible to really get a feel for how the team will shape up. So much can change so quickly in soccer unlike any other sport I've watched. A player can be considered world class today and next week they're seen as a bum.
If you have an ESPN + account you can watch Bundesliga games where gio Reyna, Tyler Adams, Joe scally, John Brooks, Chris Richards, and a couple more play. Also, you can watch series A games where Weston Mckennie plays with this account.
If you have a Peacock subscription then you can stream premier league and watch pulisic, Josh Sargent and maybe Zack steffen (he's a backup).
Beyond that, players like Weah, Aaronson, Dest, Antonee Robinson, Musah and more are going to be harder to find games for on TV. The MLS players I'm sure will be not hard to find or watch.