OT- Tigers trade rumors/Castellanos in RF tonight
Jon Morosi's has reported that Castellanos is starting in RF tonight for Erie, a possible showcase? I would want a bonefide young star if Dombrowski decided to move him within the next 2 weeks, possible Justin Upton (we'd have to send more prospects though) even though he had previously listed Detroit as one of the teams he wouldn't want to be traded too along with the rest of the AL Central in the 2011.
Theo is still most likely looking for the world for Garza and Barney, so I'd stay away from that, but regardless it's a very important next 19 days for Dombrowski and the Tigers.
Links
- http://twitter.com/jonmorosi/
- http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/tigers-notes-brantly-castellanos-pitching.html
your last sentence might be one of the dumbest things i've ever read concerning pitching stats. i guess it was a mere fluke that clemens won 7 ERA titles with 3 different teams, considering that ERA is largely out of his control.
until this year. the tigers' defense alignment was basically the same his first 3 yrs, yet porcello's #s were much worse in year 2 and 3. his hits per inning are increasing each year. to say that's all defense is just plain wrong. if you think this tigers defense is costing him 2.6 hits per game over his rookie year, i want what you are smoking.
You learn more about how defense is affecting a pitcher's numbers from his BABIP (Batting Av on Balls in Play) against than you do from his ERA or opponent average. If a given pitcher's ERA goes up and his BABIP stays about the same, then he's probably throwing fat pitches that are occasionally being hit out. If the BABIP goes up tooo, especially if it goes up for other ptichers on the roster as well, then that likely indicates that the D isn't making the plays they used to.
i just checked out baseball-reference.com and looked at the overall tigers D since 2009. The tigers D saved 0.2 runs per game in 2009; 0.16 in 2010 and cost the team 0.13 in 2011 and a whopping 0.63 thus far this year. but it clearly doesn't have the impact the other poster thinks it does.
the proof is there, porcello has not improved since his rookie year, and to most, he's only gotten worse.
per baseball-reference.com the tigers D in 2009 saved the team 34 runs for the year. that's 0.2 runs per game. not much of an ERA impact there, imo.
2010 - 27 total runs - 0.17 runs/game
2011 - 22 runs lost - 0.13 runs/game
So to go from good D to bad D may cost a guy 0.5 runs/game, at most.
won several ERA titles and he was a below avg K pitcher. the key is not leaving the ball over the middle of the plate. period. if you can blow it by the guy great. but if you can't (ie. porcello), you better hit the corners. porcello obviously doesn't since he gives up 11 hits/9 the past few years, which is horrible.
I will always neg someone who uses a pitcher's record and his ERA to determine how good he is. Two of the most meaningless stats for pitchers. I'm with MichFan97 on this one.
Porcello has improved, just not like how people thought he would. He enjoyed decent success his rookie year, and he was highly lauded coming out of the minors, so everyone expected him to be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. But unless he figures out a way to start getting more Ks, that's just not going to happen. He's a pitch to contact pitcher, and it's always tough for those kinds of pitchers to have consistent success, because they rely so much on their defense. It doesn't help him at all that our defense is sub-par. I hope for his sake that he gets traded to a team with a good infield defense.
"But unless he figures out a way to start getting more Ks"
What do you mean by this? I think this might come under the easier said than done category.
Is get more K's any less simplistic than lower your ERA?
Porcello's K/9 has pretty much risen every season but so has his WHIP. Watching Porcello fairly closely for his entire career, and looking at his stats for his career, I think the case can be made that he hasn't improved much, if at all. Here's hoping he "figures it out".
then i would label you foolish. you are wayyyyyyy overrating team defense. i beg you to go to baseball-reference.com and check out the team defense stats. the worst defenses allow about 50 more runs a year; just 0.3 more runs per game than the avg D. and i could argue the lions' share of those runs are "unearned", thus not impacting a pitchers ERA.
so to think porcello's ERA would go from near 5.00 (the past 3 years) to under 4.00 (his rookie year) with better D goes against all reasonable statistical proof.
ERA is easily the best predictor for pitcher success...by far.
If you're still using ERA as the best indicator for a pitcher then you are far out of your element. xFIP is a much better indicator, it may look like Porcello hasn't improved, but he has decrease his HR ratio, his BB/9 while also increasing his K/9 ,and his FIP this year is at a 3.83 which puts him between average and above average.
He won't ever develop that "dominant" pitch but he has come around to being an all around better pitcher. This year he's getting killed with BABIP which shows that he's not getting the defensive help he deserves. This could be his last year in Detroit considering he's arb eligible this off-season.
Baseball reference is great, especially when looking up the box score of an old game, but FanGraphs is better for Saber.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P
I'm no Saber guru but Porcello LD% has gone up every season, which leads me to consider he's getting hit harder now than at any point in his career, hence the higher BABIP
| Season | Team | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | IFH% | BUH% | tERA | SIERA | xFIP- | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Tigers | 1.89 | 17.1 % | 54.2 % | 28.7 % | 4.9 % | 14.1 % | 7.8 % | 25.0 % | 4.99 | 4.48 | 97 | 4.27 |
| 2010 | Tigers | 1.57 | 17.6 % | 50.3 % | 32.1 % | 7.7 % | 9.9 % | 4.9 % | 25.0 % | 4.49 | 4.37 | 102 | 4.24 |
| 2011 | Tigers | 1.73 | 19.0 % | 51.4 % | 29.6 % | 10.5 % | 9.9 % | 4.1 % | 40.0 % | 4.47 | 4.14 | 99 | 4.02 |
| 2012 | Tigers | 2.14 | 23.5 % | 52.2 % | 24.3 % | 15.7 % | 9.6 % | 6.7 % | 71.4 % | 4.76 | 4.13 | 98 | 4.01 |
| Total | - - - | 1.78 | 18.8 % | 52.0 % | 29.2 % | 8.9 % | 11.0 % | 5.8 % | 41.2 % | 4.66 | 4.29 | 99 | 4.15 |
I'll take it. Young Frank Tanana was a much different pitcher than Drew Smyly. Tanana was a flamethrower and strikeout king in his youth; Teaming with Nolan Ryan to form a fantastic duo for the California Angels. Tanana led the AL in strikeouts (269) in '75 at the age of 21.
I remember the older Tanana when he was with the Tigers, not the flamethrower. But I'll take the AL strikeout leader, too.
Old Frank Tanana was awesome. The big, sweeping curve. His ability to paint the inside of the plate at will. His ability to come up clutch: See 1-0 win over the Blue Jays to clinch a playoff spot in '87. He was Jamie Moyer before Jamie Moyer became Jamie Moyer. (HUH?)
Glavine averaged 15 wins a year and Tanana averaged 13 wins a year. So they're not that far apart in comparison.