OT-Sports Betting Books/Tips/Strategies
As Michigan gets closer to legalizing sports betting (hopefully by 2020), I've started to consider betting on various sporting events. Now I'm only 22 so I don't have much experience with gambling other than that it's extremely difficult to win, let alone consistently.
Do any of you have good books, tips, or strategies you use to bet on sports? Would you guys ever put money on Michigan-related sports? I'm thinking I would stay away from that and try to find more obscure games where the lines haven't been touched. But hey, I might be crazy and stupid for even trying this.
What do you think?
I bet you were born in 1996.
Other than that, I have no tips, books, or advice other than to put strict limits on yourself. I have a younger brother who years ago became a gambling addict, he himself says it's still a daily battle though he hasn't placed a bet in over two decades.
He continues the battle by attending weekly Gamblers Anonymous meetings, very rarely missing a session.
The movie 21 was entertaining.
In Soviet Russia, cards count you.
Bet against Michigan FB beating the spread. Shitty to say, but it's probably not a bad strategy over over the last few seasons.
Michigan is 25-27-1 in the Harbaugh era ATS, so it's not a very good strategy at all.
Yes, those are the facts, but the comment did seem "truthy," i.e. it feels like it should be true, because we're Michigan fans and tend to believe things are worse than they are at all times.
If you're betting off your own feelings, you're going to have a bad time
The only bet I would ever put on a Michigan game is that I'm going to be pulling my hair out, and what's left will be more gray than it was at kickoff. And that's when we're winning.
So bet against the spread in rivalry games, bet for Michigan to cover against the Rutgers's of the world
Since you have the data, why don't you break it down between B1G and not B1G?
Some might say that losing about $50 over the course of 4 years is actually not a bad gambling strategy at all.
I would say it's not a bad outcome, but its a bad strategy.
Use it to have fun and don't expect to win. Budget for what ever you do as an entertainment expense. Do not get caught in the downward spiral of trying to recoup every loss.
I play DFS and allot a certain amount at the start of every football and NBA season and exercise bankroll management by playing no more than 10% of my allotment on a given night. If I end up on a losing streak, I may be playing the 25-cent entries, but at least I still have my real bank account.
When it comes to line-betting, I find that parlays are a fools game. It's almost like flipping a coin and each leg reduces your chances by half.
Good luck and be smart!
Couldn't agree more about parlays. Inexperienced bettors fall for the huge odds, and feel that parlaying 5+ favorites is a great bet. Those bets are more like a lottery ticket than anything else.
If you decide on DraftKings, etc. make sure to only enter contests allowing 1 entry or else you will be competing against people with way more thought/resources behind their multitude of entries in the same contest.
At the end of the day, view it as entertainment and don't play with more than you can afford. Avoid putting too much of your pot in one wager, and you should be able to have your money stretch pretty far.
You're probably better off sending a Nigerian Prince some good faith money in the hopes he shares his untold riches with you.
sent one of those nice gentlemen my social security number, bank account info, DOB, etc a few weeks ago...James Woods moved into my house last night and I can't figure out why
You laugh, but this one guy just needs to have this custom fee paid in the US and he's totally going to give me 10% of the funds, which will be like mid six-figures. I'm so sure this is going to work out that I've already spent the money on Russian hookers and cocaine. Life is good, man.
Golden State - over 101 - 107 in the playoffs
My tip -
DON'T EVER BET.
If you feel like educated gambling, set up an investment account. Research stocks and learn the stock market. Invest, don't bet.
Harrah's don't pay no dividends.
Even that is exactly what you said-- "educated gambling" is still gambling. There aren't any professional fund managers who who consistently beat the related index year after year, and the transaction costs of active investing usually leave the investor worse off than they would have been over time in a passive index fund.
That said, it's pretty fun to do some research and give it a try. My retirement funds are in index funds, but I have a modest pool for speculation on individual stocks and random stuff, which is just my fancy way of gambling. It's easy to see why it can be addictive if you're not careful.
I think his point was that gambling on sports is essentially a zero-sum game--there is a winner and a loser. Putting money in an investment account--a passive stock ETF or even just bonds--will most likely yield a decent return given enough time. You're essentially betting on the continued rise of the US economy which for the last 250 years which has been like betting on Alabama without a spread.
Buy low. Sell high.
"If you feel like educated gambling". I don't know if you meant it, but it sounds like your encouraging market speculation instead of sports gambling, which is just as much gambling as sports betting. You are absolutely right that he should invest and not bet, but he also really shouldn't be speculating.
Speculation is not a bad word. Investing in anything is speculation, whether it's stocks, property, mates, or whatever. Market timing is speculation, & so is dollar cost averaging.
Try telling your fiancee that you want the invitations for the happy occasion to read:
"The parents of Tunneler and [future Mrs. Tunneler] cordially invite you to the mate speculating event of their son with..."
See how that goes for you.
Life's too short to bet the under
Always fade Big Cat is great advice too!
clay travis is good for this too
Follow @TheSharpPlays on twitter . Best twitter account there is to educate one on smart betting on a consistent basis . Otherwise , if you’re not on twitter , here’s his site: http://www.thesharpplays.com/
He debunks all kinds of myths that float around about sports betting.
...Winning on sports betting is a tough grind it out thing to do in the long-run but it can be done. For those in this thread saying it’s impossible , I’m hitting 55.5% since last September with a 700 matchup sample. Always stay sharp and stay disciplined . My best advice I can give you is start out with your “base” bankroll amount of money in your account (ex: 500) and have your set “unit” price you bet each time that usually tends to be like 3% or so of your bankroll. Never bet more than your unit price . I personally will then cash out each time I hit a certain profit point (So like when I get $200 ahead of my “base” amount).
A good app to track your bets and how you’re doing is The Action Network
As for betting Michigan games , I tend to stay away, but I will say last season I bet them vs Wisconsin and vs Penn st simply because I saw value .
look for my college football gambling threads again on Friday nights in the fall. Can’t wait for another season for college football !
Don't do it.
^^^THIS^^^ - well, that is don't do it unless its "fun money" you can "afford" to lose, and nothing more. Want to bet your birthday money from Grandma on the ponies every year because you find it fun? Knock yourself out. Anything else is probably a less-than-wise investment.
Most every time i see a line or game that's almost a "sure thing" where I'm think i could make some money on it, i'm wrong and glad I didn't bet.
“Most every time i see a line or game that's almost a "sure thing" where I'm think i could make some money on it, i'm wrong and glad I didn't bet.”
You should have been fading yourself. If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite must be right.
I'm only a bit older than you, and have been a pretty solid sized gambler recently, so my tips:
1. Know your bankroll, and if you run out, you're done.
2. Don't expect to make money off of it. Vegas is smarter, and will always be smarter.
3. Never trust anyone that sells picks. If their picks were really that good, they're not sharing them.
4. No such thing as obscure games anymore.
5. It can be a lot of fun, but don't overbet because you're feeling hot.
Put away $10 into actual investments for every $1 you want to bet.
Don't bet.
Enjoy your income and look to invest WISELY! Gambling is not a wise investment and is in no way an easy opportunity to make some cash.
My advice: if you want to make money in gaming, open a sports book
Want to be a hugely successful sports gambler? Learn geography and Shakespeare and go the James Holzhauer route. That guy was The Truth.
I'm convinced he threw his last game because he won $2 million+ and wanted to go back to his real life and not be on Jeopardy anymore.
Bet for entertainment purposes only.
You can not make money betting in the long haul.
Never bet emotions, therefore, never bet M.
1. This is most important. You're 22, I hate to be "old man giving advise to a young person" but I recall how I bet when I was that age. But anyway: if you like to gamble, that's great! But budget for it. Budget for $X per week for "poker with the guys" plus sports gambling plus casino trips. But NEVER go beyond that amount of money. Look at any gambling activity as fun and not investment.
2. If you're betting an underdog and you truly think they can win - don't putz around and just bet the spread. Bet the moneyline and get the value!
3. Don't do parlays or teasers.
4. I don't fear betting on or against my own team. But you can't be emotional either. You follow your favorite team more than most folk - so there is an increased chance there are things (positive and negative) you are picking up on that other folk are not.
5. Baseball is a lot of work but I think that provides the best opportunity for a gambler to do well. But be prepared to grind. You have to follow things very day-to-day and get the feel for a rhythm of a team.
6. This isn't sports gambling .... but I'll throw it in. Play 2-card guts once in your life. But never again.
Yep, forgot to put number 3 in my reply above . As tempting as it is , don’t ever go parlays if you want to win in the long-run
No bet, no matter how sure, should be more than 5% of your bank roll. Most should cap at 2%. The best way is to think of each percent as a unit. If you like a bet 2 units, if it’s a play of the week maybe 5 units. No matter how sure you are football makes some very very strange endings. Don’t let the bounce of one oblong ball ruin your bankroll. Also I have crushed the books for the last 3 years but..... my app has casino games. So every dollar I make on games I piss away on casino games. Stay away from those games for sure.
BetDsi is a great book with an app that works great. They also give you almost every game in high def to stream. For cord cutters this is a great option. Also if a certain team has a history of performing poorly against its rivals on the spread might as well make some cash off your misery. I call it fan insurance.I’ll leave it at that.
I've been betting on sports for most of my life. Overall, I'm probably close to even. And I'm doing better than most people I know.
The gambler's prayer: "Dear Lord, please let me break even today. I could really use the money."
My biggest advice would be to stay away from local underground books that let you bet on credit. Stick with online and legal books where you pay for your bets upfront. It should be for entertainment. There's nothing wrong with taking the $40 you would have spent on a night out and throwing it on a game and staying home to watch it. But if you have your months rent on a random soccer game in Turkey on a Tuesday afternoon... well, that is probably a problem. Speaking of, I need to go check some scores...
Bet with your head, not over it.
I think legalized sports betting will lead to financial ruin for countless punters.
That said, my best tip would be: don't look at the spreads first. Come up with what you think the scores will be and THEN check the spread. If you're betting more than 2/3 football games per weekend then you're just chasing action.
Don't. Invest consistently in a sound financial strategy and leave sportsbook to degenerate gamblers with three mortgages and a mob loan shark on speed dial. Yes, the mob still exists and you will long for the day you owed them money when you get in over your head to a Corporate Casino.
Having worked at a casino during grad school to make ends meet with 2 kids and a wife ....
Stay away. There's a reason they're so profitable. That being said .... never bet on games you care about. It's hard to keep emotions out of it and you make pics that the stats say you shouldn't.
If you're doing it for fun, then join a weekly betting pool. I'm joining my first one this year, and it's $50 for the whole season. It still provides the fun of researching and making your picks, but caps the spending.
I used to bet on games (in my early twenties), and it makes every game into an emotional roller coaster, like every Michigan game is for me. Which can be fun, but you will not end up winning money in the long run. It just doesn't happen.
Two words: Emotional hedging.
Bet on the other team and root for Michigan. Michigan wins, you lose money but feel great. Michigan loses, you are upset but winning money salves the pain a little. (Note: These assume money line bets, not picking against the spread).
Seriously though, like others have said, treat it as entertainment. Have a budget and don't go beyond that. Expect to lose it, because eventually you will.