OT: Savannah State getting 70 1/2 points vs Florida St.
Yea I know, tomorrow is game day and the season has started, but this is ridiculous. I understand they got beat by OK st 84-0, but is this team really that bad that they will lose by over 70 points again?
"Without a doubt," said Mike Colbert, vice president of risk management for Las Vegas-based Cantor Gaming, "this is the biggest line I've put up in 10 years doing this."
September 7th, 2012 at 1:09 PM ^
Someone needs to calculate about how many first downs they need to get while chewing up the max amount of clock to only lose 70-0. It can't be that many.
Ballsy move on Vegas' part.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:44 PM ^
5 first downs
September 7th, 2012 at 2:01 PM ^
Here is some very rough figuring for that:
Savannah State managed all of 8 first downs in 34:13 of possession last week on their way to scoring zero points. It's not a perfect calculation by any means, but assuming for the moment FSU could score at the same blinding pace as Oklahoma State, then Savannah St. either needs to find a way to keep the ball about six additional minutes (or FSU slows down the offense and keeps it for about the same amount of time) or a way to keep them to approximately 27 first downs (again, assuming FSU scores at the more or less the same rate - the Cowboys had 33 first downs). Alterantively, Savannah St. would need to get 2-3 more first downs in this scenario. Going with the same assumption, for kicks, it would mean holding FSU to 5-10 on third down conversions (compare to 7-10 for Oklahoma State).
All figures are approximate, of course.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:09 PM ^
I wonder if they're gambling against themselves to bring in more money?
September 7th, 2012 at 1:12 PM ^
I'll take Florida State. I think Savannah State has 4 true freshmen on the OL (or something close).
September 7th, 2012 at 1:12 PM ^
cover that, nor will they try. If they had any inclination to run the score up they certainly will not now. If you are a gambler, take Savannah St. That is easy money.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:52 PM ^
That's 18 points a quarter to cover. FSU will constantly playing offense because Savannah State has no offense themselves (as well as FSU having a top-tier defense). I'm not so sure that Savannah's D will be able to stop FSU's third stringers. Savannah State is one of the worst teams in FCS (as in D-1AA).
September 7th, 2012 at 1:16 PM ^
Why would anyone take FSU? They won't even try to win by that margin, and will call off the dogs even if their third string OL is making room for their sixth RB to rush for numbers like that.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:09 PM ^
Isn't that what happened last week?
September 7th, 2012 at 2:29 PM ^
Who is SSU going to put in when they're down 45-0? They have ZERO depth at every single position. They would get routed by Grand Valley, let alone Florida State.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:45 PM ^
I think FSU could do it easily, I just don't think they're going to try. I guess we'll see after tomorrow, if the score hits 71-0, 74-3 or 78-7.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:58 PM ^
I definitely get it - 70.5 is insane but it's not that far fetched.
September 8th, 2012 at 12:43 AM ^
Think of it this way: When we played Delaware St. 3 years ago, we basically had our 3rd string in halfway through the 2nd quarter with the score 42-0. We still finished the game with 63, and they couldn't stop us even when we tried running the clock out. And we finished the game with the ball (just barely) on their side of the field. Our 5-7 team put up 63 points and had there been a couple more minutes left, possibly 70. #16/#18 Okie St. just beat them 84-0, so I think a 70.5 spread is pretty realistic for #6 FSU (even though rankings don't mean much this early in the season).
I wouldn't touch this game either way though...
September 7th, 2012 at 1:21 PM ^
September 7th, 2012 at 3:44 PM ^
You know this is the first time I'm going to say it, but if I needed the money I can imagine that I could be bought it I played for FSU. Who cares if you win by 70 or 80, after all.
September 7th, 2012 at 7:42 PM ^
FSU has young men of questionable morals and ethics... Blasphemy.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:24 PM ^
And this is why a lot of places won't put up lines for FBS vs. FCS games...
September 7th, 2012 at 1:29 PM ^
I hope they have some ambulances standing by at that game. And at the Alabama - Western Kentucky game.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:36 PM ^
Not that I hate Western Kentucky, but I really want Bama to blow them up like 84-0. If it is say 41-14, I will cry...again.
September 7th, 2012 at 7:42 PM ^
To hell with Bama... effin jerks.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:32 PM ^
Why is there a line for this game but no line for the VT-Austin Pea game? Also, am I less of a fan if I took Air Force to beat the spread?
September 7th, 2012 at 1:39 PM ^
I'm no betting expert but I think I heard one time that Michigan is one of the worst teams in college football at covering. I think your bet is probably safe. Tough to bet on a team other than Michigan but at least you're not betting on them losing!
September 7th, 2012 at 1:42 PM ^
I would totally buy that. I actually wondered if Mathlete or anyone else on this blog had ever done an analysis of Michigan's percentage at covering, compared to other teams.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:11 PM ^
I'm pretty sure this has been mentioned here on MGoBlog... I think it may have been jamiemac.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:41 PM ^
I actually haven't seen any of the other "bigger" betting services willing to establish a line on this (FSU) game... not sure who this Cantor cat is, but I think his booking service is about to get slammed.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:43 PM ^
Only if you don't parlay it with a Michigan victory. If you do, then all is forgiven and you can win some extra money.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:32 PM ^
On one hand Florida State is going to try really hard to not run up the score, but on the other hand I watched some of that Savannah State Okie State game and they really really suck.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:41 PM ^
Savannah St. is one of the worst teams in FCS, going 17-88-0 since 2000. Looks like they had only one win last season. This isn't even a good FCS team...
September 7th, 2012 at 1:34 PM ^
The question becomes this - can the 2nd and 3rd string FSU players be stopped by SS 1st stringers? I guess we'll see.
September 7th, 2012 at 7:44 PM ^
Why is Savannah State playing 2 top 15 BCS schools back to back in the first place? And we worry about players getting hurt? They should just march them all into a pirahna tank, what's the difference?
September 8th, 2012 at 6:06 AM ^
September 7th, 2012 at 1:38 PM ^
I'd really like to bet on this game.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:43 PM ^
Savannah State lost to Bethune Cookman by 56 last year and to Southeastern Louisiana by 57. They are one of the worst teams in all of football. No way I would ever bet on them.
September 7th, 2012 at 1:48 PM ^
Yes, Savannah State IS that bad. They're a bottom dwelling FCS team that FSU had to schedule late because West Virginia backed out. They had 139 yards against Oklahoma State and FSU's defense is lightyears ahead of Okie State's D. FSU's third stringers will still be better than Savannah State (we'll see if their starters even get a full half in or not). They need to score 18 points a quarter to beat the spread, that's not a whole lot when you're constantly playing offense the whole game because the opposing team doesn't have one...
September 7th, 2012 at 2:02 PM ^
I think the line on the Savannah St/OSU game last week was 67.5, and OkSt still covered that pretty easily.
EDIT: Also worth noting that despite losing 84-0, Savannah St did win the all-important time of possession battle.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:06 PM ^
Last week, Oklahoma State scored on its first five possessions to take a 35-0 lead late in the first quarter, needing no more than 90 seconds on any of the scoring drives. The 1st string was out after like 3 series and the 2nd stringers were out shortly after that. They ran the ball 42 times for 400 yards. It sounds like short of taking a knee, they almost couldn't not score (not sure if that double negative works there).
September 7th, 2012 at 2:06 PM ^
Take Savannah State and tease it 7 points. You still have 9 TDs and a hook, and a little more bang for your buck. FSU won't run it up.
September 7th, 2012 at 6:10 PM ^
is the dumbest thing you can do
Teasing across 3 and 7 (say from -8.5 down to -2.5) improves the chance of covering by around 20%.
Teasing from say +70.5 to +77.5 improves the chance of covering my maaaybe 5%. Not worth the $.
Oh and teasing college football in general is retarded as well. Too much variance.
Teasing NFL, in certain situations, is profitable though.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:19 PM ^
I'm in the 7th dimension of bizarro world.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:36 PM ^
September 7th, 2012 at 2:41 PM ^
Yeah, what kind of AD gets his team embarrassed on a national level simply for a quick, easy pay day?
September 7th, 2012 at 3:01 PM ^
Ouch.
September 7th, 2012 at 4:00 PM ^
You win the internet today.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:44 PM ^
Do you have any background into how this game came about? FSU was scheduled to play WVU this weekend. WVU bailed for the Big XII and thus FSU had to scramble. Savannah State was free and they linked up to play this game.
If the phone rings, another school calls and says hey come play us on date X, we'll give you enough cash to run a bunch of non-revenue sports for the entire year - you don't turn that down.
September 7th, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^
September 7th, 2012 at 2:49 PM ^
Oklahoma State beat Savannah State 84-0 because they had dedicated the game to their defensive coordinator, who was in the hospital. Oklahoma State refused to call off the dogs even after building a huge lead because they were trying to notch a shutout in his honor. That won't be the case when FSU plays Savannah State.
September 7th, 2012 at 4:24 PM ^
September 7th, 2012 at 2:58 PM ^
If FSU only wins by 60 points that will be such an upset
September 7th, 2012 at 3:27 PM ^
I can see it now:
UPSET ALERT scrolling along the bottom of the screen, Florida State up 60-0 with two minutes left
September 7th, 2012 at 3:32 PM ^
I am 100% confident I could QB for FSU that game and still win. I'm also the guy that tells people, "I could of made that throw" when Denard goes all - well, Denard on us.